Scaling Electric Vehicles in India Ashok Jhunjhunwala, IIT Madras (on sabbatical) Principal Advisor, Minister of Power and NRE ashok@tenet.res.in
Why is Electric Vehicle (EV) the future transport? Better efficiency with less number of moving parts Area Petrol / Diesel EV Energy efficiency 17 21% 90 95% Moving parts (reliability) 2000+ 20+ In five years, EV capital costs will be less than that of petrol vehicles with acceptable range and operational costs at a fraction of that of petrol vehicles But if we wait, India will import most EV sub-systems and batteries instead of oil Falling battery costs Year Li battery costs per kwh 2012 USD 600 2015 USD 450 2017 USD 250 2020 USD 150 2024 < USD 100 Scaling of EVs in India 2
But before we begin: Nay-sayers But Does India have enough electricity? Full conversion of transport to EV will utilise 15% to 20% of total electricity generation No shortage of electricity: thermal plant load factor today is 59.6% Will help power-usage during off-peak hours Alternatively, rooftop solar may provide all required electricity using 0.07% of India s geographical area Scaling of EVs in India 3
Nay-sayers: Pollution But does electricity not cause pollution? Zero pollution levels if renewables used Renewable prices have fallen below that of coal-plant: future capacity will mostly come from solar / wind If electricity is produced with current thermal plants No tail-pipe emission CO 2 pollution down by 50% Scaling of EVs in India 4
World-over EV is scaling driven by subsidies some 30 to 40% How does one get EV to Scale and that too in 2017? Scaling of EVs in India 5
So how do we enable Electric Vehicle today World-over EVs happen today with 30 to 40% subsidy India does not have enough money for subsidy So how do we do it without subsidy? must make economic sense At the same time scale early And take leadership in the world at least in some segments As far as possible, Make in India and develop the complete eco-system from end to end Scaling of EVs in India 6
Approach Focus on higher efficiency: Wh/km (equivalent to kms/litre of petrol) Lower Wh/km brings down battery size, weight and cost For e-autos in last six months: from 70 to 80 Wh/km to about 45/50 Wh/km E-buses: from 1600 Wh/km to 900 Wh/km Split battery into smaller size (one third) and swap No waiting time to charge battery; no public infrastructure required Battery size without range anxiety 30-40% reduction swap swap swap Battery-life severely affected by Fast Charging at 45 deg C: onethird as compared to charging in two hours below 25 deg C Possible with swapping Scaling of EVs in India 7
Approach (contd) Separate vehicle business (without battery) and energy business (battery) Capital cost similar to that for petrol / diesel vehicle Operation cost today same as petrol / diesel vehicle WITH no SUBSIDY; but zero-rated GST for strictly three years Drive Volumes using public vehicles Get companies to buy vehicles in bulk (100,000 plus) and lease Get companies to buy batteries in bulk and set up energy business Private vehicles to leverage the eco-system No subsidy needed as with these 5 steps, capital cost of vehicle similar to that for petrol vehicles, and /km operation costs same as petrol / diesel / CNG Manufacture motors and drives, chargers, batteries, cells and battery-chemicals in India Scaling of EVs in India 8
Three wheelers: e-rickshaw, e-auto Current e-rickshaws of poor quality: use Lead-acid batteries Use swapping: 50 km range battery swap in 2 minutes at some 200 locations in a city Quality electric vehicles at similar price as petrol/cng vehicles Charged Li-ion hire price per km less than that petrol/cng vehicles Scaling of EVs in India 9
Electric Three-wheelers 3W Operators may use vehicles with larger batteries and charge at home / public chargers. But NO subsidy. 50 manufacturers, battery manufacturers, potential battery swappers and vehicle aggregators working towards Common and modular battery pack specs driven with industry 1.5 kwh, 13 kg, 3000 cycles: two packs for 3-wheelers Additional specs for vehicles: efficiency (35 Wh/km for e-rick, 45 Wh/km for e- auto), safety and easy battery-swapping Inter-operability tests + certification Launch in November 2017 200K order: can target 1 million 3-wheelers in 18 months Large e-auto and e- cargo rickshaw and autos to follow Everything other than battery cells made in India Scaling of EVs in India 10
For City-Buses Most city-buses travel less than 30 kms per trip Some 8 to 10 trips per day: Ten minutes break between trips E-Bus Operators may use vehicles with larger batteries. But NO subsidy Choose batteries with 50 kms range Swap batteries (using robots) at trip-terminal point Operation costs per km is no more than for diesel vehicle High performance (low Wh/km) buses without battery Capital Costs similar to that of today s buses Scaling of EVs in India 11
Electric buses Some 30 manufacturers, battery manufacturers, potential battery swappers working towards Definition of Common battery pack specs 50 kwh, 450 kg, 3000 cycles Specs for vehicles: efficiency, safety, easy battery-swapping (with robotics) Inter-operability tests + certification Could launch in January 2018: can target 10000 buses in 15 months Scaling of EVs in India 12
4-Wheelers: need Fast Chargers Focus on Taxis and Government Vehicles Economics work out as Cost per km comparable to that for petrol vehicles Have a range of 110 kms: going up to 160 kms by July 2018 Overnight slow AC charging at homes two hour AC charging while parked at office can extend range to 150 kms DC fast charger for one to one and half hour charging Scaling of EVs in India 13
Public Chargers Public chargers for small vehicles standardised Bharat Chargers AC-001 (slow) and DC-001 (fast) [less than 100V, 15 kw] Affordable so that they can make business sense DC chargers may cost 1 lakh to 1.5 lakhs Make Charger business viable like STD-PCO Public fast chargers for larger vehicles to be standardised AC-002 and DC-002 [100V to 800V, 30 to 100 kw] Industry needs to get back with what they need Business case needs to be figured out: current costs 10 to 20 lakhs Scaling of EVs in India 14
Get going at Speed Build Volumes Prices depend much on volumes Focus on Make in India Everything other than battery cells are manufactured in India Will enable personal vehicles to take off Two-wheelers can use the same battery module as used in 3-wheelers Other vehicles in future Long-distance buses, Tempos, Trucks, Agricultural Equipment and vehicles Cell to Pack Manufacturing 2017 some 15 companies Cell Manufacturing: 2019-20 India has little Li, Mn, Co Battery Recycling to recover 95% of Li, Mn and Co Scaling of EVs in India 15
ADDITIONAL SLIDES Scaling of EVs in India 16
Challenges and Approach I: Efficiency Battery size without range anxiety 30-40% reduction Battery most expensive component of EV Focus on higher efficiency: Wh/km (equivalent to kms/litre of petrol) at low vehicle speed Lower Wh/km brings down battery size and cost higher motor efficiency, better tyres, aero-dynamics and light-weight materials: 30 to 40% improvement in many cases For e-autos in last six months: from 70 to 80 Wh/km to under 45 Wh/km Still costs are too high Scaling of EVs in India 17
Challenges and Approach II: Swapping Battery size without range anxiety 30-40% reduction swap swap swap Introduce Swapping Split battery into smaller size (one third) and swap No waiting time to charge battery; no public infrastructure required 50 kms battery for auto: swap in 2 minutes at some 200 locations in a city For Fast Charging at 45 deg C, battery life is onethird as compared to charging in two hours below 25 deg C Swapping enables this Scaling of EVs in India 18
Approach III: Energy Business Separate vehicle business (without battery) and energy business (battery) Purchase enhanced efficiency vehicles without batteries Capital costs similar to that of equivalent ICE vehicle costs Energy Business: battery ownership (depreciation and interest), swapping & charging operation costs (cost per km) no more than that for petrol / diesel / CNG vehicles Scaling of EVs in India 19
Approach IV: Aggregate Demand Drive Volumes using Public Vehicles Get companies to buy vehicles in bulk (100,000 plus) and lease Get companies to buy batteries in bulk and set up energy business Private vehicles to leverage the eco-system Manufacture motors and drives, chargers, batteries, cells and battery-chemicals in India Scaling of EVs in India 20