DRIVERS FOR THE ECONOMICS OF GERMAN PV HOME STORAGE SYSTEMS A RAW MODEL TO BE USED IN OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? Verena Jülch Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE IRES 2018 Düsseldorf, March 14, 2018 www.ise.fraunhofer.de
Countries in Europe 2
A typical PV battery system for a single family house PV electricity Sell excess electricity using feed-in tariff or at the electricity market Electricity market buy additional electricity from utility battery 4 persons 5,383 kwh/year 5.5 kwp PV Private investor 2.4% discount rate (real) electricity consumption 3
Scenarios Name PV power [kw p ] PV limit Remuneration PV-price [ /kw p ] levies Status Quo 5.5 50% FIT 1,417 a) low remuneration 5.5 70% 3 ct/kwh 935 b) amortized PV 5.5 70% 3 ct/kwh 0 EEG levy 5.5 70% 3 ct/kwh 935 b) EEG levy 4 a) 2017 data, Fraunhofer ISE b) 2030 prognosis, Fraunhofer ISE
IRR Internal rate of return for PV + battery vs. PV only 2 kwh battery 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 5-2% Status Quo low remuneration amortized PV EEG levy IRR PV only IRR battery 840 /kwh IRR battery 500 /kwh IRR battery 200 /kwh expected IRR 840 /kwh net battery price corresponds to 1000 /kwh gross
Influence on economic viability of battery storage system Internal rate of return for PV + battery vs. PV only low high Limit of PV feed-in Levies and taxes on ownconsumption WACC Own-consumption rate Load profile Feed-in tariff Household electricity price development low uncertainty high 6
Denmark Germany Belgium Ireland Spain Portugal Italy Austria Greece Sweden Cyprus Switzerland United Kingdom Liechtenstein France Norway Luxembourg Slovenia Iceland Latvia Finland Netherlands Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Malta Estonia Romania Croatia Hungary Lithuania Turkey Moldova Montenegro Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Macedonia Serbia Kosovo Ukraine Residential electricity price [ /kwh] Household electricity prices 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Data source: Eurostat, 2017 7 Price without taxes and levies Levies VAT and other recoverable taxes
Denmark Germany Belgium Ireland Spain Portugal Italy Austria Greece Sweden Cyprus Switzerland United Kingdom Liechtenstein France Norway Luxembourg Slovenia Iceland Latvia Finland Netherlands Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Malta Estonia Romania Croatia Hungary Lithuania Turkey Moldova Montenegro Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Macedonia Serbia Kosovo Ukraine Feed-in tariff for small rooftop PV systems [ /kwh] Feed-in tariff 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 8 Net metering, quota systems, premium tariffs, direct subsidy Data source: RES LEGAL
Economic Viability Index in Europe EVI = HH el.price FIT own. cons. increase no FIT subsidy subsidy net-metering subsidy solar tax 9 EVI is assuming no fees on own consumption
Conclusions Germany: high electricity prices make battery storage favorable Battery market currently still subsidy-driven Business-cases for net metering? Battery price drop can bring PV to more countries 10
idistributedpv: EU Horizon 2020 project Solar PV on the Distribution Grid: Smart Integrated Solutions of Distributed Generation based on Solar PV, Energy Storage Devices and Active Demand Management To propose the development of integrated solutions to enhance the large penetration of solar PV distributed generation (incl. concept of prosumer and storage devices, smart technologies) Carried out by 12 European partners (6 countries) Project is funded by the EUHorizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 764452 Duration: 30 months, September 2017 to March 2020 APPA Kostal Deloitte Exide Fraunhofer Novareckon ICCS-NTUA HEDNO LEI Renerga IEN Enea Operator 11
Thank you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Verena Jülch verena.juelch@ise.fraunhofer.de www.ise.fraunhofer.de This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 764452. 12