Energiespeicher für Systemsicherheit und Integration der Erneuerbaren Energien Dr. Dirk Biermann 5Hertz Transmission Jahreskonferenz Power to Gas 216 Berlin, 21. Juni 216
Potential drivers for storage development wholesale market TSO DSO consumer 2 Flexibility 1 Balancing in generation portfolios Classical arbitrage Arbitrage on price spreads over time Flexibility needs in the system Security of supply cheap alternatives to storage available Avoidance of grid extension/ congestion management 3 Consumer based applications Prosumers self-supply and backup power e-mobility (gas-mobility) < 1 hour > 1 hour implies large scale energy storage niche applications While consumer based applications will drive small distributed storage, large scale energy storage development like power to gas remains unclear 2
1 Classical arbitrage Arbitrage - price spreads in the electricity market have been decreasing significantly Day-night spread 29 Day-night spread 215 8 8 Summer 1 /MWh 6 4 2 8 35 /MWh 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 /MWh 6 4 2 8 15 /MWh 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 Winter 2 /MWh 6 4 2 35 /MWh 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 /MWh 6 Pumped hydro based on daily spreads currently not viable. Also longer term price volatility has decreased over the last years 4 2 2 /MWh 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 ( 1 ) average day ahead prices from April to September in Germany and from ( 2 ) October to March 3
Arbitrage - RES peak shaving needs seasonal energy storage, pumped hydro reservoirs (<8h) not sufficient 35 3 MW Wind feed-in in Germany on 25.3.215 4.4.215 25 1d 2 15 1 5 5d PSP Goldisthal (16 MW, 85 MWh) 25.3. 27.3. 29.3. 31.3. 2.4. 4.4. According to recent studies there is no urgent need for seasonal storage in Germany. Power-to-Gas seems to be the only (expensive) option. 4
however, significant storage capacities are available in Scandinavia/the Alps via new interconnectors Interconnectors Indirect storage option Maximum available storage capacity of water reservoirs in 211 NO (84 TWh) SE (34 TWh) Along with power-to-gas the only option for seasonal fluctuation compensation Large indirect storage potential in Swedish/Norwegian water power plants and PSW in Austria/Switzerland already existing CH (9 TWh) DE (.4 TWh) AU (3 TWh) Additional interconnectors profitable from day one without subsidies Maximum available capacity of water storage in 211 (in TWh) 1 8 6 4 2 85 34 9 3.4 NOR SWE CH AUT DE There is a potential of at least 7 GW additional interconnector capacity. Hansa Power Bridge will add 7 MW with another 7 MW option. 5
CO 2 emissions of Stromerzeugung [Mio. t] CO 2 targets for electricity are ambitious and might be further tightened to compensate for gaps in other sectors 4 35 3 25 2 15 187 Mio t CO 2 in NEP B2 225? 134 Mio t CO 2 in NEP B2 235 1 5 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Klimaschutzziele (lineare Approximation) Aktueller Verlauf der CO2 Emissionen Natural gas is not an option in a fully decarbonized electricity sector. Will Power-to-Gas be driven more by decarbonization than by storage needs? 6
2 Flexibility Flexibility - new players with low opportunity costs are competing with storage on a market of limited size New players Power to Heat Stadtwerke Schwerin DSM aluminium production Trimet Hamburg DSM Steel production Hamburg Small CHPassets DSM provided via aggregators Control power by RES (depending on legal framework and subsidy scheme) Lichtblick pilot ( At Home power stations) Increasing competition on the flexibility market complicates business cases for storage. Distributed flexibility requires the system s further digitilization. 7
Savings Additional costs Flexibility cheap alternatives to storage do exist Additional costs/savings of one GW flexibility options in 223 (43% RES in DE / 22% RES in EU) Mio. /GW/a Power-to-Gas Pumped Hydro Batteries Interconnectors Additional CHP flexibility Additional DSM Short storage 1 hour Short storage 8 hours Long-term storage 72 hours Storage will not be a game changer within the next 1 years: Investment in long-term storage is far away from profitability. Short-term storage will be driven less by flexibility than other applications. Source: Agora (214) Electricity Storage in the German Energy Transition 8
3 Consumer based applications Prosumers and e-mobility battery applications will benefit from decreasing costs Realistic battery costs in 235: 2,5 kw/8,5 kwh at 3 Battery development will be driven less by flexibility demand than self-supply and e-mobility depending on (in)direct subsidies and life style. Quelle: Deutsche Bank. 215. Crossing the Chasm. Solar Parity in a Low Oil Price Era. Seite: 45. Abbildung 41: Blended Battery Projections. URL: https://www.db.com/cr/en/docs/solar_report_full_length.pdf 9
Additional grid expansion in 5Hertz grid per GW additional capacity in 235 [km/gw] Prosumers and e-mobility - limited impact of storage on 5Hertz grid expansion needs 25 2 High influence of wind power on grid expansion needs 15 1 5 Growth of storages reduces grid expansion needs very little Wind turbines (offshore) Wind turbines (onshore) Gas power plant Compact storage -5 While wind power drives German grid extension, the impact of gas and (non-exponential) growth in storage on grid investment needs is limited. Quelle: Deutsche Bank. 215. Crossing the Chasm. Solar Parity in a Low Oil Price Era. Seite: 45. Abbildung 41: Blended Battery Projections. URL: https://www.db.com/cr/en/docs/solar_report_full_length.pdf 1