LAND BUILDINGS & REAL ESTATE Parking & Transportation Services TITLE: Proposed Escondido Village Graduate Residences Parking Analysis (Revised 2/23/16) FROM: Brian D. Shaw, Director, Parking & Transportation Services TO: Catherine Palter, Associate Vice President, Land Use and Environmental Planning Summary An underground parking garage of approximately 1,300 parking spaces is proposed for this project (approximately 700 net new parking spaces). The current ES parking demand, based on permits purchased per bed, is 0.56 spaces per bed. This proposal would bring the overall supply within the ES parking designation (see appendix for ES designation map) that serves Escondido Village to 0.61 parking spaces per bed. The post-project parking supply would be sufficient to accommodate demand within the ES parking The following considerations further support the conclusion that a parking shortfall is highly unlikely to occur: o Parking demand is steadily declining over time; o The above analysis is conservative. Three surface lots near Escondido Village (L-62, L-63, and L- 65) are accessible to both campus residents holding an ES permit and campus residents holding an EA permit; If still more ES parking were needed, shared ES/EA lots can be changed to an ESonly lot; and o The project is expected to include innovative features that will reduce the need for car ownership. Project Description The proposed Escondido Village Graduate Student Housing project would include the following features: Demolition of approximately 400 beds; Construction of up to 2,400 beds, for a net increase of 2,000 net new beds; Removal of approximately 600 surface parking spaces; and Construction of 1,300 new underground parking spaces, for a net increase of 700 net new parking spaces. The project would be located within a controlled parking area on the Stanford campus, in which all vehicles are required to display an ES parking permit, which is a permit available only to residents living in campus housing located within this parking (Please see attached figure for a map showing the boundaries of the ES parking ).
Background Trends Trends away from vehicle ownership and single-occupant vehicle travel within the millennial generation are reducing the need for residential parking at housing developments. These trends are even more pronounced in the graduate student population at Stanford. Millennial Travel Preferences The millennial generation is a demographic cohort whose birth year ranges from the 1980s to the early 2000s. The majority of graduate students matriculating at Stanford for the next 10 years will likely be millennials. Multiple researchers and media outlets have studied millennials and transportation, focusing on the fact that automobility has been declining for millennials and the previous generation, dating back to the 1990s. Noreen D. McDonald, Associate Professor in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill addresses this trend earlier in 2015 in a paper titled Are Millennials really the Go- Nowhere generation? published in the Journal of the American Planning Association. Using data from National Household Travel Surveys, McDonald finds that automobility declines for all Americans between 1995 and 2009, but the drops are largest for Millennials and younger members of Generation X starting in the late 1990s. Moreover, among young adults, lifestyle-related demographic shifts, including decreased employment, explain 10 to 25 percent of the decrease in driving; millennial-specific factors such as changing attitudes and use of virtual mobility (online shopping, social media) explain 35 to 50 percent of the drop in driving; and the general dampening of travel demand that occurred across all age groups accounts for the remaining 40 percent. Stanford Graduate Student Mode Shift National trends in mode and mobility shifts are even more pronounced in Stanford University s graduate student population. From 2004 to 2015, commuting graduate students have reduced their drive-alone mode share from approximately 60 percent to approximately 40 percent (see Figure 1). 59% 47% 52% 47% 46% 39% 40% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2015 0% Figure 1: Graduate Student Drive-Alone Rate 2 Page February 23, 2016
Stanford Parking Permit Trends This trend away from personal automobile reliance is also apparent in parking permit sales for graduate student residents. Between 2004 and 2015, the total graduate student residential permits-to-beds ratio has fallen from 0.65 to 0.55. These trends are evident in the Escondido Village population as well. Graduate student residents eligible to park in ES parking facilities, which includes Escondido Village (see appendix for map of these facilities), have reduced their residential permit purchase ratio from 0.76 per bed down to 0.56 between 2004 and 2015, a decrease in total ES permits purchased from 2,841 to 2,430 and an increase in bed count from 3,733 to 4,378. 1.00 0.90 Permits to Beds Ratio 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.65 0.64 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.56 0.30 0.20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Permits to Beds ratio Figure 2: Escondido Village Permits to Bed Ratio (2004-2015) Parking Proposal As part of the new Escondido Village Graduate Student Housing project, a parking garage of 1,300 spaces is proposed, which would result in 700 net new parking spaces. This parking quantity would be sufficient to accommodate demand within the ES parking The 2,000 net new beds proposed for the EV graduate residences would bring the total bed count within the ES parking designation to 6,378 beds. At the current parking demand ratio of 0.56 parking spaces per bed, this total number of beds would result in a demand for a total of 3,540 parking spaces within the ES parking Currently, there are 2,783 parking spaces exclusively reserved for ES permit holders within the ES parking There are also 771 parking spaces shared with the adjacent EA residential parking permit 3 Page February 23, 2016
It is reasonable to assume that at least 50 percent of the 771 shared EA/ES parking spaces would be available to ES permit holders. The EA parking designation is over supplied. There are currently 1,154 EA exclusive parking spaces and only 853 active EA parking permits. Accordingly, EA permit holders are not as likely to use the shared parking lots as ES permit holders. If one assumes half of the 771 shared EA/ES parking spaces (385 spaces) are available to ES permit holders on any given day, the supply available to ES permit holders is 3,168 parking spaces. The proposed project s addition of 700 net new spaces would bring the total ES parking space count to 3,868 versus the estimated demand for 3,540 ES parking spaces. The post-project total number of spaces within the ES parking designation would be sufficient to accommodate demand. Additional Considerations Several additional considerations further support the conclusion that the demand for residential parking would not exceed the parking supply. First, as explained in the background section of this memo, the trend on both a national level and on a Stanfordspecific level has been for student drive-alone rates and car ownership to decline steadily over time. This indicates that in the future, even less parking will be needed to meet campus residential demand. Second, the analysis presented above is conservative. The parking supply figures include only 50% of the shared parking in three surface lots (L-62, L-63, and L-65) located at the southern and western edges of the ES parking These three lots include 771 parking spaces shared by ES permit holders and holders of another residential parking permit, EA permits. Should the demand from residents within the ES parking designation prove to be higher than anticipated, one of these shared lots could be re-designated for use exclusively by ES permit holders. Third, the Escondido Village Graduate Student Housing project would include features designed to eliminate the need for car ownership. When Stanford comes forward with a project-specific application, we anticipate including in the housing project those amenities that will enhance the residential experience for the graduate students, and reduce vehicle trips. Potential onsite amenities could include a small convenience store, similar to that found at Munger Residences; café/dining venue for student use; study rooms; meeting rooms that could also be used on occasion to provide movies for the residents; Marguerite stops; and additional Zipcars. These amenities are meant to reduce vehicle trips off-campus. The amenities are not envisioned to be of a size or scale to attract off-campus neighbors to campus. Conclusion The proposed parking garage of 1,300 spaces (700 net new spaces) will be sufficient to meet parking demand within the ES parking designation area after completion of the proposed graduate student housing project. There will be sufficient parking within the ES designation to satisfy demand based on the current ratio of beds to parking permits. Further, demand for parking is declining over time. In addition, shared ES/EA parking is available at the edges of the ES designation, and some of this parking could be converted to ES-only parking if needed. Finally, the housing project will include features designed to reduce the need for car ownership. 4 Page February 23, 2016
Appendix Figure 3: ES parking designation 5 Page February 23, 2016