Clean Diesel: Where we ve been and where we are going

Mid Atlantic Diesel Collaborative Wayne, PA, May 4, 2016 Allen Schaeffer Executive Director aschaeffer@dieselforum.org Clean Diesel: Where we ve been and where we are going

Who is the Diesel Technology Forum? A non-profit educational organization with HQ in the Mid Atlantic Region Energy Efficiency Emissions Environment Economics Essential Uses Fuels Legacy Products Our work Education Research Outreach Collaboration Media Conventional, Social Frederick MD

Want more talk time on your iphone? What if it were powered by. D 10 DAYS IF POWERED BY DIESEL 8 DAYS IF POWERED BY BIORENEWABLE FUELS. 7 DAYS IF POWERED BY GASOLINE 1 DAY IF POWERED BY LITHIUM ION

Clean Diesel: Where we ve been and where we are going Overview The Mid Atlantic Region emissions challenges The State of Diesel Today Penetration of New Technology Diesel Engines- both light and heavy duty Air Quality, Fuel savings and other benefits from Clean Diesel Technology The Future

VW Emissions Crisis: Official DTF Statement 09/23/2015 The circumstances involving a single manufacturer do not define an entire technology, or an industry. Vehicle manufacturers and engine makers have invested billions of dollars in research and development to successfully meet the most aggressive emissions standards in the world. They continue to work closely and cooperatively with the Environmental Protection Agency, California Air Resources Board, international regulatory bodies as well as environmental and other interests groups toward common goals. Nothing has changed the fact that the diesel engine is the most energy efficient internal combustion engine. It is a proven technology and its unique combination of efficiency, power, reliability, performance, low-emissions and suitability for using renewable fuels ensures a place for diesel technology to help meet the demands of a global economy. We are also confident that consumers will continue to find the new generation of clean diesel cars, trucks and SUVs as a competitive choice to meet their personal transportation needs.

Diesel Powers key economic sectors and key public services in the region

Regional Issues Diesel trucks, goods movement and construction equipment identified (OTC) as sectors of high emissions reduction potential. Idle reduction Ports Goods Movement Construction Equipment Power Generation- back up power / demand response uses Older generation emissions performance of Legacy Products Operational Issues

Clean Diesel Is Important for the Region s Air Quality Average Daily Tons of NOx SOURCE: Ozone Transport Commission

Embracing new clean diesel technology in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Diesel Emissions Reduction Act: Benefits Across the Country Now in Congress: Funding for FY2017 Reauthorization

Mid Atlantic region has received about 4 % of all DERA Funds $2,224,046 to the Mid Atlantic Region

New Technology

Clean diesel has virtually eliminated emissions, from PM g/hp-hr 0.7 Progress to Near Zero PM Emissions 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Backhoes Ag Tractor Line Haul Locomotives Switch Locomotives Heavy Duty On-Road Vehicles 0.1 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

and emissions of nitrogen oxides, from all categories of new engines and equipment 14 g/bhp-hr Progress to Near-Zero NOx Emissions 12 10 8 Off-Road Equipment: Backhoes and Ag Tractors Line Haul Locomotives 6 Switch Locomotives 4 Heavy Duty On-Road Vehicles 2 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

What is a Clean Diesel Truck? Class 3-8

Meeting and Beating the Standard with Clean Diesel Diesel engines manufactured to meet the model year 2010 standard actually generated less than half of the maximum allowable emissions of NOx and PM, which is a considerable margin of safety. Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study, Phase 2: Coordinating Research Council, in collaboration with the EPA, U.S. Department of Energy, Health Effects Institute, CARB and others http://crcao.org/reports/recentstudies2013/aces%20ph2/03-17124_crc%20aces%20phase2-%20final%20report_khalek-r6-swri.pdf

New Technology Diesel Engines Meet emissions standards by large margins (Health Effects Institute (HEI) ACES Study Final Report; 2015; FTP cycle, g/bhp-hr) 18 Year 1998 2004 2007 1 2010 2 PM 0.1 0.1 0.01 0.01 Measured 0.0014 0.0008 NO2 4 2.4 1.2 0.2 Measured 1.09 0.08 Emissions Standards

HEI ACES Study of New Technology Diesel Engines Finds Major declines in PM Mass and Numbers Emissions 19

Old v. New Diesel Exhaust ACES 2007, 2010 engines Epidemiologic Studies 20

American Lung Association, cleaner diesel fleets and NAAQS In both 2014 and 2015, the American Lung Association, in it s state of the air report cited Cleaner diesel fleets as one of two major contributors to clean air progress 6 in 10 cities now meeting clean air standards 2016 SOTA Report highlights retirement of older diesel engines as contributing to progress Overall, the best progress came in the continued reduction of year-round particle pollution in the eastern half of the nation, thanks to cleaner power plants and cleaner diesel fleets.

How Clean Is Clean? MY 2010 Class 8 = 5 miles to generate a penny s weight in NOx MY 1988 Class 8 = 0.25 miles to generate a penny s weight in NOx NOx (g/mi) PM (g/mi) Class 8 Annual VMT: 110-140,000 Pre-2007: 9.19 2007-2009: 2.94 2010+: 0.50 Pre-2007: 0.233 2007-2009: 0.025 2010+: 0.025

A Clean Diesel Class 8 Line-haul Tractor Can Save 9 Million Tons of CO2 a Year

Clean Diesel Technology Makes Significant Contribution to Clean Air and Climate Goals Since 2010 the new technology diesel trucks on the road have Eliminated 7.5 million tonnes NOx Saved 2.9 billion gallons of fuel Saved 69 milion barrels Eliminated 39 million tonnes CO2 Since 2007 Eliminated 218,000 tonnes PM

As a region, MARAMA states lag national average for adoption of new technology clean diesel trucks Ranking for the adoption of the latest technology for MY 2010+ MY 2007 & Newer MY 2010 & Newer Diesel Total Diesel Share of MY 2007s Share of MY 2010s + Natural Gas STATE Total DE (#23) 9,822 5,752 24,180 40.6% 23.7% 10 D.C. (#51) 2,301 1,139 7,880 29.2% 14.4% 463 MD (#9) 59,289 36,724 128,478 46.1% 28.5% 323 PA (#8) 171,872 111,760 385,679 44.5% 28.9% 906 VA (#45) 69,847 37,157 194,684 35.8% 19.0% 218 WV (#40) 19,554 11,040 53,349 36.6% 20.6% 3 NC (#10) 105,182 63, 869 283,979 37.04% 22.49% 377 MARAMA 1,078,229 38.5 % 22.51% 2,300 Nationwide 4,012,366 2,451,419 9,536,635 40.6% 24.47% 40,847

New Tier 4 Off-Road Equipment Delivers near-zero emissions; additional focus on jobsite efficiencies Tier 4 Standards at work delivering clean air and fuel savings Depending on Equipment Type and Horsepower range, Tier 4 compliant engines deliver more than a 90% reduction in NOx and PM

Rail, Ports and Marine: New technology diesel engines for Tier 4 level emissions available Siemens Commuter rail in CA- Cummins Tier 4 diesels New Workboat with Caterpillar Tier 4 engines (Puget Sound, WA)

Weak economy having Impacts on new technology acquisition Construction Machinery down 4.1% Heavy Duty Trucks down 6/7 last months Overall down 0.5%- mining/utility Source: April 2016 http://www.oemoffhighway.com/economics

Light Duty Diesel Cars STATE OF THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION CHOICES FUTURE BENEFITS

Over 600,000 Drivers in the Region Are Behind the Wheel of a Diesel Car, light truck or SUV STATE Diesel Cars & SUVs Share of Diesel Cars & SUVs Diesel Pickups Share of Diesel Pickups Diesel Cars, SUVs, Vans and Trucks Share of Diesel Cars, SUVs, Vans and Trucks Hybrids Share of Hybrids DE 3,885 0.6% 11,844 8.6% 16,853 2.1% 10,412 1.28% D.C. 2,002 0.7% 1,372 5.1% 4,235 1.3% 10,702 3.18% MD 25,437 0.7% 75,029 10.9% 108,029 2.3% 81,386 1.76% PA 44,432 0.5% 188,004 9.4% 251,876 2.2% 109,522 0.95% VA 32,251 0.6% 131,391 9.4% 172,499 2.4% 120,684 1.65% WV 4,756 0.5% 46,568 10.1% 52,811 3.4% 8,489 0.55% Nationwide 1,829,611 0.5% 11,615,433 11.4% 14,109,603 3.0% 6,017,735 1.26% Vehicles-in-operation, 2015; IHS/Polk

Greening up pick-up Trucks: Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon make the list American Council for Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) recognizes Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon pick up trucks to its 2016 list of Greener Choices (the only diesel on the list) 22 mpg city, 30 combined and 40 mpg highway 2.8 l Duramax diesel

Big Benefits from Diesels in Light Pickups Nationwide. Million gallons

Light Duty Diesel Will Continue to Deliver Fuel Savings and Co2 Benefits Market Share 10% Million gallons 7% 4%

The Diesel Market Grows with More Choices for Consumers What drives sales? Relatives fuels taxes? Fuels price? Economic factors? The number of models may be the bigger indicator of alternative vehicle sales. Alternative fuel choices today for cars, SUVs, light trucks and work trucks: Hybrids: 51 Plug-in EVs:14 Battery-Electric: 14 Diesel: 32 cars & SUVs, 17 light pickups and worktrucks (Note: incl. VW diesel models)

US Clean Diesel Brand Launch Calendar:12 today up to 18 brands 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Courtesy of Robert Bosch LLC Vehicle(s) Not Announced by OEM DS/MBL2-NA 1/2016 2014 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved. 35

Clean Diesel Cars & Trucks Generate Substantial Benefits NATIONWIDE Just 3.0% of the light-duty fleet Since 2005: Eliminated 70 million tonnes of CO2 Displaced 11 billion gallons of gasoline Saved 261 million barrels of crude oil Installing 19,000 wind turbines Creating a solar farm 5X the size of Washington D.C.

The Future: Cleaner Air Lower Emissions More Efficiency and Productivity RENEWABLE FUELS EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES

Diesel fuel will remain the dominant growth fuel between now and 2035, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The World Energy Outlook:

Biofuels Can Enhance Clean Air Benefits of Clean Diesel Biofuel capability of diesel technology: Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel Great potential comes with unique challenges Petroleum Reduction Air Quality Benefits Biodiesel: Blend limits and warranty concerns Greenhouse Gas Savings Renewable Diesel: Supply, Costs, ensure optimum engine performance (higher cetane) Who is making the switch? New York City, City of Oakland, City of Walnut Creek, Eugene Water and Power, Google, Disneyland, Super Bowl 50, UPS..just to name a few

Diesel engines on renewable fuels deliver substantial carbon, clean air and energy benefits

RENEWABLE DIESEL FUEL From Neste in Fleet Applications in California LOW CARBON Sustainable Fuel 250 VEHICLES 230,000 GALLONS/YEAR Reduced emissions resulting from the use of renewable diesel will allow the City of Oakland, CA to decrease its carbon footprint and help meet ambitious Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction targets established by the City. 4 1

Heavy Duty truck future efficiency driven by EPA/NHTSA Regs 42 Combination Tractors 65% of HD Fuel Consumption and GHG Inventory (together) Trailers Pulled by Combination Tractors (currently unregulated Federally) Vocational Vehicles 21% of HD Fuel Consumption and GHG Inventory Large Pickups & Vans 14% of HD Fuel Consumption and GHG Inventory Heavy-Duty Standards in g/ton-mile and gallons/1000 ton-miles NEW! Standards in g/ton-mile and gallons/1000 ton-miles Standards in g/mile and gallons/100 miles The Phase 2 program builds on the success of Phase 1, with similar design and vehicle categories and, for the first time, includes fuel efficiency standards for trailers

Relative fuel consumption Cost per fuel consumption reduction ($/%) New EPA/NHTSA Phase 2 rules drive technology: New tractor and trailer fuel consumption reduction of 34% from 2018 to 2027 Fuel consumption Fuel consumption reduction Cost effectiveness 100% 4,000 80% 60% 40% 20% 3,000 2,000 1,000 0% 2017 tractor-trailer Tires (tractor + trailer) Axle friction and configuration Aerodynamics (tractor + trailer) Accessories Engine Predictive cruise Automatic tire inflation Idle reduction Transmission (incl. downspeeding) 2027 tractor trailer 0 Muncrief, R (2015). Parsing Phase 2: Tractor-trailers in the proposed regulationhttp://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/parsing-phase-2-tractor-trailers-proposed-regulation

Future of HD Trucks: Powertrain improvements, systems integration, aero, operational Gains in Diesel Engine efficiency expected: now 40% BTE growing to 50% BTE +. Via powertrain integration, reduce parasitic loads, idle reduction, waste heat recovery systems. Other truck Components Key: tires, aerodynamics, trailers Vehicle Operational performance-- Volvo Platooning trucks Freightliner Supertruck 115% efficiency improvement and 12.2 mpg

Off Road: Efficiency & lower emissions come from Engine and Powertrain integration, Big Data, Analytics, Smart Iron Smart Iron: 400,000 connected Caterpillar machines globally: autonomous vehicles, drones, real-time reporting and connectivity. Efficiency on the jobsite; reduce cycle times, machine utilization. Connected Farms: AGCO, CNH, Deere

Hybridization and Efficiency making inroads Productivity enhancements couple near-zero Tier 4 emissions reduction with fuel economy benefits. MPG vs Yard of Earth per Gallon? Next generation drivetrain Hydraulic hybrid, traditional hybrid and energy storage capabilities Clean diesel hybrid electric buses popular with transit districts in the region including DC, MD, NY

Past, Present, and Future Journey to Clean Diesel On Road Near Zero 2000-2010 Journey to Clean Diesel Off road Near-zero 2010-2015 Engine & Machine Efficiency GHG reductions Emissions Nearer to zero 2020 Work efficiency Systems Integration Renewable fuels 2025+

Final Thoughts Greatest benefits for all come from getting new Technology on the road, Jobsite, farm field. Incremental progress is substantial: replacing a 2007 unit with a 2016 unit = 90+ percent reduction in NOx Fleet turnover driven by economics -- confidence in the business, age of existing equipment and repair costs, fuel prices, incentives, competition, regulation and more. Renewable fuels will play a far greater role in the future particularly for targeted locations. Future questions: how to account for efficiency and emissions reductions from work practices of new technologies

Check out our New State Resources on www.dieselforum.org

Thank You Allen Schaeffer Executive Director aschaeffer@dieselforum.org Ezra Finkin Director of Policy and External Affairs efinkin@dieselforum.org (301) 668-7230