Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Third quarter 2018 automotive market share, trends and registrations Marty Miller Senior Product Manager and Industry Consultant 1 Experian Public
Today s presentation Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment, age and market share U.S. light duty vehicles through September 30, 2018 New, Used and other market changes Industry news and special market analysis: 1. - General Motors announcement 2. - Alternative fuel analysis 2 Experian Public
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U.S. and Canada total Vehicles in Operation = 321.6M Light Duty Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans Cars and GVW Class 1 3 Medium & Heavy Duty Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors GVW Class 4-8 Power Sports Motorcycles, All-Terrain, Utility Task, Snowmobiles 6 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (all motorized and road registered vehicles)
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Light Duty Vehicles 7 Experian Public
U.S. Vehicles In Operation a 12 month view Q3 2017 271 million Vehicles on the road 17.2 * NEW VEHICLES 202.4 * NO CHANGES Q3 2018 275.1 million Vehicles on the road 42.4 * USED VEHICLES EXIT 13.1 * Out of Operation DEALER Source: Experian as of September 30, 2018 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 8 Experian Public *In millions; U.S. totals include Puerto Rico
U.S. VIO change by Model Year (in millions) Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 Current 20 Model Years 86.9% of VIO Current 25 Model Years 94.9% of VIO 9 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
U.S. VIO Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 out of operation by volume and percentage of total Model Year 10 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
U.S. VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share 11 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share 12 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
The aftermarket Sweet Spot overview Post and Pre Sweet Spot defined The Aftermarket Sweet Spot 6 to 12 model year old vehicles Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs Likely require more part replacement & services (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers Sizing the Sweet Spot helps identify overall market potential and changes can have implications to those that service it Post Sweet Spot vehicles 13 model years old & older Less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value Pre Sweet Spot vehicles 5 model years old & newer; many covered by the vehicle s manufacturer warranty Identifies models coming into the Sweet Spot 13 Experian Public
U.S. trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumes VIO by model year (in millions) Total VIO vs Sweet Spot total Pre-Sweet Spot 30.4% vehicles within Sweet Spot (MY2007 2013) Post-Sweet Spot 14 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
Pre-Sweet Spot and Post Sweet Spot trend 15 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2018 (light duty vehicles only) Excludes Other engine cylinders
New and Used Vehicles Volumes and market share through the 3 rd quarter (January through September) Alternative fuels analysis GM announcement 16 Experian Public
New vs Used vehicle registrations - 3 rd quarters of New vs Used New Registrations Used Registrations New Registrations Used Registrations 17 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
New vehicle registrations - 3 rd quarters of Body Style 18 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
New vehicle registrations - 3rd quarters of Manufacturer 19 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
New vehicle registrations through the 3rd quarter Top 3 Models by brand for Tesla and FCA 20 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only) Only top 3 models shown for 2018, others models hidden, total by each Make may be less than 100%
New vehicle registrations demographic generation through 3rd quarter trend 21 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
New vehicle registrations generations by class type through 3rd quarter trend Exotic Luxury Non-Luxury 22 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
Automotive Analysis Alternative Fuels 23 Experian Public
Alternative Fuel Types January through September 2018 Fuel Types Gasoline Flex / E85 (Ethanol, Biofuel mixes) Diesel Gasoline Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Electric Hybrid Electric (pure) CNG LPG Methanol Hydrogen Other variations Future TBD Gasoline/Flex Diesel Hybrid Electric Other Fuel Share 92.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 24 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
Alternative Fuel Types where we are heading January through September of each Report Period 25 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive New registrations as of January through September of each calendar year (light duty vehicles only)
Alternative Fuel Types Who is selling them? January through September of each Report Period 26 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive New registrations as of January through September of each calendar year (light duty vehicles only) Gasoline/Flex share intentionally hidden
Alternative Fuel Types Who is buying them? Most buyers are: College educated Baby Boomers or Gen X Married Home value $450k+ Single family home owners Less likely to have children Work in Management, Business or at a Professional level 27 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each calendar year (light duty vehicles only) Gasoline/Flex share intentionally hidden
Automotive Market News GM layoffs and plant closing announcements 28 Experian Public
GM Overview Total market share by calendar year New vehicle registrations trend of January through September 29 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
GM Overview Brand share within manufacturer New vehicle registrations trend 30 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year (light duty vehicles only)
GM Overview 6 discontinued GM models New vehicle registrations trend share of model within brand 31 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of January through September of each year
GM Overview 6 discontinued models what alternatives? Disposal Loyalty model defection top Make/Models Buick Lacrosse Chevrolet Impala Chevrolet Cruz Chevrolet Volt Cadillac XTS Cadillac CT6 32 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive Disposal Loyalty methodology for 2018 (light duty vehicles only)
Summary Total light duty VIO continues to grow to 275.1 million in the U.S. market The Aftermarket Sweet Spot has stopped falling and has settled before seeing a growth that is expected to continue for several years New registrations have increased slightly and Used vehicle registrations have dipped slightly Cross-overs registrations of new vehicles continue to increase in sales over prior time periods FCA and Tesla increase market share while GM continues to struggle. Millennial and Gen Z buyers continues to increase in registration share for all vehicle class types. Alternative Fuels registrations increase, and it is the educated, married, professional and upscale homeowners who are the buyers. GM announces employee cutbacks and will halt production of 6 models will all current owners stay with GM? 33 Experian Public
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