Long-term trends in road safety in Finland - evaluation of scenarios towards 2020 and beyond Markus Pöllänen Lecturer Tampere University of Technology, Transport Research Centre Verne, Finland Nordic Traffic Safety Forum 2018 Aland 13.9.2018
Background In early 2000s, the presenter was involved in analysing the future outlook and depicting road safety scenarios towards year 2020 in Finland. This study was published by the Finnish road administration* in 2004. As we are approaching year 2020, it is interesting to examine to what extent the development has been as projected and to what extent the development has differed from the projections and forecasts made about 15 years back. * Publication in Finnish: Pöllänen, M. & Mäntynen, J. Tieliikenteen turvallisuus vuoteen 2020. Tiehallinnon selvityksiä 10/2004, 110 p.
Description of the project in 2003-2004 The goal was to produce futures oriented information to support strategic planning Identifying changes in the operational environment of road safety towards year 2020 Which factors have influenced the historical development? What are the trends in road fatalities? Analysing the entity, creating alternative futures images and scenarios To support the future outlook, historical development was analysed for the past 40 years (about 1970-2002)
Outline Long-term trends in road fatalities in Finland from 1970 Issues affecting the development of road safety Trend-based scenarios for 2002-2020 Trends among different age groups Trends among women and men Trends among different road user groups Update: Trend-based forecast for 2018-2030 Discussion and conclusions
Road fatalities 1970-2002 in Finland and some key interventions 1400 General 80 km/h speed limit 1973/1974 1200 Obligatory safety belt usage, first in front seat in passenger cars 1.7.1975 1000 800 Blood alcohol content act 1.4.1977 Obligatory helmet usage for motor cyclists 1.6.1977 Winter tyre act 1.12.1978 600 400 Removing black spots on road network 1973: President s new year s Winter time speed limits 1.11.1987 200 speech and I parliamentary 1991: II parliamentary transport committee transport committee 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Safety Council
IRTAD Annual report 2009
Issues affecting the development of road safety Demographical development: urbanisation, aging population Economical development: GDP growth, which affects e.g. transport volume and new vehicle registration Transport costs: differences in costs in different modes, fuel prices Transport infrastructure: improving road network, transition from building new to maintaining existing roads Transport policy: allocating funds, prioritising between different aims (e.g. travel time vs. safety) and transport modes Vehicle fleet: strong growth in many vehicle types, improvements in vehicles passive and active safety Transport demand: continuous growth in transport volume (except of some financial crises) Other issues: e.g. improvement in medical sciences and first aid
Road users / drivers Traffic environment Management and regulation of the transport system Car ownership Travel behaviour Mileage Volume, quality Traffic behaviour Car fleet Quantity and composition; age, size, safety equipment Population age structure, driving licences, migration Costs Car purchase and usage Crash risk Amount of crashes Adapted from Häkkinen ja Luoma (1990)
number of vehicles inhabitants million vehicle-km km 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Strong growth in Vehicle mileage 1977-2002 Local roads Other roads Main roads, class II Main roads, class I 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Separate pedestrian and cycle ways along national roads 1981-2003 3 500 000 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 Vehicle fleet 1950-2002 Tractors Mopeds Motorcycles Special vehicles Busses 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 65+ year old population 1960-2020 85+ 75-84 65-74 1 000 000 500 000 Trucks Vans Passenger cars 400 000 200 000 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Administration
Analysing the trends in road fatalities The long-term trends in road fatalities per population (i.e. per 100 000 inhabitants) are analysed among different age groups among men and women among different road user groups The extrapolated development 2003-2020, based on trends 1970-2002, is compared with the actual development (figures marked next as 2010real and 2017real)
road fatalities / 100 000 inhabitants Trends among different age groups 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010forecast 2010real 2017forecast 2017real 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total Data: Statistics Finland Forecasts based on trends in 1970-2002
raod fatalities / 100 000 inhabitants Trends among women and men 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010forecast 2010real 2017forecast 2017real 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Men Women Data: Statistics Finland Forecasts based on trends in 1970-2002
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 share of road fatalities Trends among different road user groups 100,0 % 90,0 % 80,0 % 70,0 % 60,0 % 50,0 % 40,0 % 30,0 % 20,0 % 10,0 % 0,0 % Other vehicles Passenger cars Tractors Motorcyclists Moped riders Cyclists Pedestians Data: Statistics Finland
road fatalities Road fatalities in different road user groups, 2003-2020 extrapolated based on historical trends in 1970-2002 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 historical development extrapolated Other vehicles Passenger cars Tractors Motorcyclists Moped riders Cyclists Pedestians 0 Data on road fatalities 1970-2002 from Statistics Finland. Projection is based on trend extrapolation (road fatalities per population in each road user group) and population forecast 2003-2020 by Statistics Finland.
road fatalities Road fatalities in different road user groups - actual development 2003-2017 compared with the extrapolation 1200 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1000 800 600 400 200 Other vehicles Passenger cars Tractors Motorcyclists Moped riders Cyclists Pedestians 0 0 Pedestrians Cyclists Moped riders Motor cyclists Tractors Passenger cars Data on road fatalities 1970-2017 from Statistics Finland. Projection is based on trend extrapolation (road fatalities Other vehicles per population in each road user group) and population forecast 2003-2020 by Statistics Finland.
Road fatalities / million vehicle-km The trend of road fatalities per vehicle mileage 1970-2002 0,100 0,090 0,080 0,070 0,060 0,050 0,040 0,030 0,020 0,010 0,000 Data on road fatalities from Statistics Finland. Data on vehicle mileage on national roads from Finnish Road Administration.
road fatalities Trend-based scenarios for 2002-2020, actual development 2002-2017 and road safety aim (-50% 2010-2020) 450 400 road user groups 350 age groups 300 250 200 150 100 218 136 genders risk forecast * mileage forecast risk forecast * constant mileage actual development 50 aim 0 Data on actual development of road fatalities 2002-2017 from Statistics Finland
Actual vs. forecasted development Vehicle mileage, national road network (million vehicle-km) 39000 38000 37000 36000 35000 34000 33000 32000 31000 30000 29000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0,014 forecast actual mileage Risk (road fatalities per million vehicle-km) 0,012 0,010 0,008 0,006 0,004 0,002 0,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 extrapolated actual Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Administration, Finnish Transport Agency
Actual vs. forecasted development 5600 000 Population development 5500 000 5400 000 5300 000 5200 000 5100 000 5000 000 In 2017, the population was 206 000 persons (+3.9%) greater than forecasted. The greatest difference was in the amount of under 15 years old. Forecast Actual development Data: Statistics Finland
road fatalities Trend-based forecast 2018-2030 400 350 300 250 200 150 Annual mileage change: ca +1.4% Annual risk change: -4.5% Annual road fatalities change: ca -3.1% About 150 road fatalities in 2030? 100 50 0 historical development forecast Risk (fatalities per mileage) of 2003-2017 extrapolated to years 2018-2030 * forecast of vehicle mileage 2018-2030 Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Transport Agency
Please note! We haven t got, and in future will not get the positive trends for free To reach the extrapolated development, the development should be similar and implemented measures of the future should have similar effect as those of the past There is no automatic mechanism that produces road safety improvement
Discussion Even though the actual development of population or vehicle mileage has not been as forecasted, the difference is not big, and the trend extrapolations from early 2000s have been surprisingly similar to the actual development in road fatalities There is great safety potential in affecting transport mileage and its expected growth as well as the crash risk Additionally, the seriousness of crashes can be affected (e.g. ecall, medical services, use of safety equipment) How will automation affect road safety in future? Quantitative trends are only one part of the big picture, also the qualitative trends and aspects should be considered
Conclusions Higher risk still among men, the young (15-24 year old), and seniors, but the risks have continued to decrease Road fatalities continue to be especially in passenger cars (57%) In Finland, Vision Zero in road safety is still very far away, but the trends are pointing to the right direction To reach the road safety target (-50% road fatalities in a decade, also during 2020-2030), the is a need for further commitment in road safety measures and strict actions