Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

3.5 Figure 1. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent) 3.5 3.25 3.25 3. 3. 12/1 2.75 2.75 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2. I II III IV I II III IV I 217 218 219 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 2. 18 16 Figure 2. US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH 18 16 14 12 1 1-Year Bond Yield (percent) (3.1) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) (5.5) 14 12 1 8 8 6 4 2 Q3 6 4 2-2 -2-4 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

325 3 275 25 Figure 3. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 28-218 (ratio scale) 12/1 325 3 275 25 225 225 2 2 175 175 15 125 2-day moving average 15 125 1 1 75 75 5-56.8% (517) -16.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% -5.8% (62) (34) -5.8% (19) 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219-7.4% (28) -12.4% (96) -13.3% (1) -1.2% (13) -1.2% (64) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 2% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8 Figure 4. YIELD CURVE SPREAD & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS -3 1-Year Treasury Yield Less -5 Federal Funds Rate (basis points, pushed ahead 12 months) -7-9 Coincident Economic Indicators (yearly percent change) -11-13 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-15 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1-1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. Page 4 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

45 4 Figure 5. YIELD CURVE: 1-YEAR US TREASURY MINUS FED FUNDS (basis points) 45 4 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 5 12/1 1 5-5 -1 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -5-1 6 4 Figure 6. US YIELD CURVE* & BUSINESS CYCLE (basis points, weekly) 6 4 2 2 12/7-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22-8 * 1-year US Treasury yield less federal funds rate. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 5 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

35 3 Figure 7. YIELD CURVE (basis points) 1-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury (13) 5-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury (-1) 35 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 12/1-5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -5 1 9 8 7 Figure 8. ISM PRICES-PAID INDEXES ISM Prices-Paid Indexes Manufacturing (6.7) Nonmanufacturing (61.5) 1 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Institute for Supply Management. 2 1 Page 6 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6. 5.5 Figure 9. GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent) 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 Germany (.25) Japan (.7) US (2.85) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 12/1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Source: Haver Analytics. 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 125 115 15 Figure 1. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (216=1, sa, ratio scale) 125 115 15 95 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 45 45 35 LEI CEI 35 25 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board. Page 7 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

43 42 41 4 Figure 11. COMPONENTS OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Average Workweek (hours, sa) Building Permits (million units, saar) 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.2.8 39 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.4 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jobless Claims (thousands, sa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Average of Conference Board & University of Michigan Expectations Indexes (normalized index) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2.4.2. -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8-1. 175 15 125 1 Consumer Goods Orders (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 S&P 5 Composite Price Index (1941-43=1, nsa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 32 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 ISM New Orders Index (5+=increasing, sa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Leading Credit Index (normalized index, percent) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 15 1 5-5 57 51 45 39 33 27 Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft (billions of 1982 dollars, sa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Conference Board. Interest Rate Spread (basis points, nsa) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 6 4 2-2 Page 8 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1.6 Figure 12. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT TRUCK TRANSPORTATION (millions, sa, ratio scale) 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1. 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1. 25 2 15 1 Figure 13. INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (in 26-wa) (4.3) Coincident Economic Indicators (2.2) 25 2 15 1 5 12/1 5-5 -5-1 -1-15 -2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Atlantic Systems and Bureau of Economic Analysis. -15-2 Page 9 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

18 16 Figure 14. JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (millions) 18 16 14 12 Unemployed Workers Job Openings 14 12 1 1 8 6 8 6 4 4 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 2 15 1 5 Figure 15. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Q3 65 6 55 5-5 45-1 -15-2 -25 S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management. 4 35 3 Page 1 / December 11, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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