LAEI 213 Non-road transport emission estimates Katie King, Aether October 216 14 th With thanks to: AMEC for shipping, industrial, waste sectors and domestic boilers analysis Paula Martin at TfL for the emission maps
Outline Intro - contributions by sector Emissions methods, brief overview focusing on key improvements for 213 Not including road transport Sectors
LAEI 213 Summary Total NOx emissions 213 by sector NO x Tonnes 213 3 3 2 1 1 Artic HGV 55% Rigid HGV bus & coach TfL Bus Diesel LGV Diesel Car Petrol Car Taxi
Non road transport emissions 8 7 NO x Tonnes 213 6 4 3 1 transport 11% Heating fuel 2% Large 6% 6% 2% 8 7 6 4 3 1
Significant methodology update Lower emission estimates for diesel trains than in 21 LAEI More complete estimates for electric trains Detailed GIS analysis of routes, movements including analysis of timetables and expert review Passenger rail DfT Emissions model routes and movements Freight Network activity data NAEI emission factors 8 7 6 4 3 1
Updated method to include new emission factors and updated activity data Updated EFs take account of EU regulations on fuels Passenger shipping represented by links along and across the river activity data from Services (TfL) including hours of operation shipping port emissions now included as well as at sea data from Lloyds List and Port of London Authority Both sectors show decreasing activity 21 213 8 7 6 4 3 1
Part A processes data from EA Pollution Inventory, What s in my Back Yard and some additional data from E-PRTR 51 sources identified, sources outside M25 removed continuing issues with quality of data reported to the PI very basic data, some limit values rather than monitoring? Part B processes processes regulated by Boroughs data based on borough questionnaires, LAQM USAs data reviewed against Part As for duplications, compared with LAEI 21 returns dry cleaners now included for VOC emissions (>1 locations) 8 7 6 4 3 1
heating Dominated by gas but other fuels are also significant Improvements reduced double counting at locations of Part A processes Gas DECC gas consumption data combined with NAEI emission factors mapped across MSOA areas not high resolution, could be improved fuels boilers database no longer used activity data based on DECC data from NAEI modelling, at borough level emissions from oil increased from LAEI 21 Photo morguefile.com/creative/kudoskid 8 7 6 4 3 1 8
heating Photo morguefile.com/creative/kudoskid 8 7 6 4 3 1 9
heating Significant improvements in gas boiler estimates for NO x London specific emission factors derived Based on new research on UK boiler sales data, London boiler ages and boiler emission limit values New mapping based on detailed census 8 7 data 6 4 NO x emissions have increased 3 compared with LAEI 21 better 1 reflecting boiler stock
Changes in boiler stock Boiler stock data from Energy Consumption UK database Discontinuity in data in 28 - changes in definitions of boilers in EHS Emission factors for NO x based on emissions limits for different types of boilers, Calculated average factors for different ages of boiler
Boiler age profiles by Borough Number of houses, split by boiler age 1% Re:new energy efficiency surveys provided data on boiler stock of ~44, households These age profiles used to calculate weighted EFs for each borough. Gaps filled with averages for inner and outer London EFs then applied to mapped households using gas for central heating (census) and gas consumption data from DECC at LSOA 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Boiler age no data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2+
heating Future emissions are modelled based on GLA data on trends in household numbers 8 7 6 4 3 1
Non-road mobile machinery Significant improvements since LAEI 21, emission estimates have reduced Improvements in geographical distribution of emissions Construction London emissions estimated as 11.5% of UK NAEI emission based on employment in construction Mapped based on London Development database sizes of sites E.g. warehouses and industrial plant Based on NAEI mapping of industry 8 7 6 4 3 1
Non-road mobile machinery London Development Database sites 213 8 7 6 4 3 1
Non-road mobile machinery Although distribution is wider than in the LAEI 21 maps, there is still a dominance of a small number of very large sites 8 7 6 4 3 1
Non-road mobile machinery Future emissions are expected to reduce significantly Implementation of ULEZ - SPG requiring improved engine standards Modelling for 22-23 estimates based on assumed changes in fleet but also incomplete compliance with SPG (5-8%) But current fleet data are very uncertain new data collection through online database will improve this in future 8 7 6 4 3 1
small sectors Accidental fires Not significant for NO x but more significant for other pollutants e.g. BaP Mapped using actual fire locations Household & garden machinery Lawn movers and other petrol powered tools Agriculture Heating and mobile machinery Waste - Small scale waste burning and STWs Bonfires, indoor waste burning Biogas use at Sewage treatment works 8 7 6 4 3 1
small sectors 8 7 6 4 3 1
Total emissions Map