Stefan Jaehnert Northern European power system scenarios for EMPS 21 to 23 Brukermøte Produksjonsplanlegging 22. Mai 213 1
Outline 1. Basic modelling assumption Northern Europe 2. 23 scenario development 3. Simulation results 4. Transmission investment analysis 2
Modell development Objective: Develop a data model set for EMPS, which takes into account the hydro system characteristics in the Nordic as well as the thermal characteristics in continental Europe. The data model shall be suited to assess the (economic) outcome of the prospective integration of variable renewable energy sources in the Northern European power system. under development in: PhD in the project "Balance management in multination power markets" EU FP7 Twenties Transmitting wind Implementation of the investment analysis in EMPS 3
Geographic overview Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain 21 22 23 4
Basic assumptions 56 areas (including neighbouring countries) 8 corridors (including HVDCs) (39 busses for Norway / 3 busses for Sweden => Samnett /NVE dataset) 75 climatic years (temperature, hydro, wind, solar) Series simulation (34 sequences per week / 52 weeks per year) 32-35 thermal power plants with start up costs (marginal production costs / start up costs based on fuel prices) Operational (spinning) reserve requirements District Heating Max. calculation time => 1.5 days in Version 9.3 (using CPLEX) (2.5 weeks in Version 8.4) 5
Fitted generation mixes (per country) ENTSO-E 21: EMPS 21: Differences due to load definition (transmission system load vs. total system load) 6
Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] 21 Scenario Electricity prices per country: 4 35 3 Norway Germany Great Britain 1% 5% % 4 35 3 1% 5% % 4 35 3 1% 5% % 25 25 25 Average: 47.8 EUR/MWh Average: 5.2 EUR/MWh Average: 46.9 EUR/MWh 2 2 2 StdDev: 11.1 EUR/MWh StdDev: 11.5 EUR/MWh StdDev: 7.3 EUR/MWh 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 (shown are %,, 5%,,1% percentiles of the 75 climatic years) 7
Future scenarios sources Main sources: European Commission - EU energy trends up to 23 (PRIMES model) ENTSO-E - Ten-Year Network Development Plant Statnett / Svenska Kraftnät - Swedish-Norwegian Grid Development DENA - Grid study II Dep. of Energy & Climate Change - DUKES report National Grid - Seven-Year Statement CEDREN / HydroPeak - Expansion of hydro capacity in Southern Norway Additional sources: EWEA - wind energy scenarios BDEW - power plant list ECN - reference projections 8
Future scenarios updates Generation portfolio: 11 GW increase in hydro generation capacity in Southern Norway (including pumping), small scale hydro in Norway and Sweden Adapted thermal capacity - commissioning and decommissioning of (individual) thermal power plants Constant fuel cost / CO 2 emission cost increased Increased WPP (up to 191 GW throughout the modelled area) Transmission capability: Internal (Norway west coast, Sweden north-south, Germany north-south) Cross-border (HVDCs subsea cables, AC interconnectors) North-Sea offshore grid in 23 (according to OffshoreGrid project) Consumption increase by 5-9
Average electricity prices (per area) 21 23 Obs! Different scale 51 EUR/MWh 62 EUR/MWh 48 EUR/MWh 51.5 EUR/MWh 45 EUR/MWh 41 EUR/MWh 45 51 /MWh 41 62 /MWh 1
Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] Price [EUR/MWh] 4 35 Electricity 3 25 prices 2 1% 5% % Average: 47.8 EUR/MWh 4 35 3 25 2 1% 5% % Average: 5.2 EUR/MWh 4 35 3 25 2 1% 5% % Average: 46.9 EUR/MWh StdDev: 11.1 EUR/MWh StdDev: 11.5 EUR/MWh StdDev: 7.3 EUR/MWh 21: 15 1 15 1 15 1 5 5 5 23: 4 35 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Norway Germany Great Britain 1% 5% % 4 35 3 1% 5% % 4 35 3 1% 5% % 25 25 25 Average: 5.6 EUR/MWh Average: 61.2 EUR/MWh Average: 49.8 EUR/MWh 2 2 2 StdDev: 6.8 EUR/MWh StdDev: 33. EUR/MWh StdDev: 17.3 EUR/MWh 15 15 15 1 1 1 5 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11
Hydro Production [GW] Hydro Production [GW] Hydro power production in Norway 21 23 35 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 5-5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total annual production: 113 TWh 1% 5% % 1 5-5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 19 TWh 1% 5% % 12
Reservoir level [Mm 3 ] Hydro Reservoir Production level [Mm [GW] 3 ] Reservoir handling in Norway 21 23 9 x 14 35 9 x 14 8 3 8 7 7 25 6 6 2 5 4 5 15 4 3 2 1 1% 5% % 1 2 3 4 5 Time [weeks] 1 3 5 2 1-5 1% 5% % 112 3 2 4 5 3 6 47 8 5 Time [weeks] [hours] (Generally higher levels due to increased energy inflow to the system (from WPP)) 13
[EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] [EUR/kW*year] Power production Profitability of assets Thermal 21 23 Lignite: 4 2 Annual margin 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Lignite 4 2 Annual margin Lignite 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Hard Coal: 4 2 Annual margin Hard Coal 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 4 2 Annual margin Hard Coal 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 Gas: 2 1 Annual margin Gas 2 1 Annual margin Gas Oil: 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 Annual margin 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 Capacity [GW] Oil 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 5 Annual margin 2 4 6 8 1 12 Capacity [GW] Oil 14
Power production Profitability of generation assets Thermal Significantly reduced operating hours => reduced income and profitability of thermal power plants => will thermal capacity be decommissioned? Hydro Reduced annual profitability from 18 /kw to about 135 /kw due to increased hydro generation capacity => is building new generation capacity profitable? 15
Transmission profitability (congestion rent) 21: 23: 7 EUR/MWh 13 EUR/kW 13 EUR/kW 55 EUR/MWh 65 EUR/kW 65 EUR/kW 4 EUR/MWh EUR/kW EUR/kW 16
Investment analysis transmission expansion in 23 Expanded lines: Middle Sweden => Southern Sweden: 28 MW Southern Sweden => Northern Germany: 41 MW Western Germany => The Netherlands: 375 MW The Netherlands => England: 233 MW England => Scotland: 43 MW => main corridor around the North Sea => transport of surplus energy (mainly WPP) to load centres 17
Investment analysis - Transmission expansion Before: 7 EUR/MWh 13 EUR/kW 55 EUR/MWh 65 EUR/kW 4 EUR/MWh EUR/kW area prices congestion rent After: 7 EUR/MWh 13 EUR/kW 55 EUR/MWh 65 EUR/kW 4 EUR/MWh EUR/kW 18
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21 Scenario Fitting of generation mix ENTSO-E generation capacities / installed assets (ADAPT sheet & updates from various countries) Implementation seasonal availability of thermal power plants (EEX data): 1,95,9,85,8 nuclear lignite hard coal gas oil,75 1 14 27 4 generic Fitting through tuning of general availability of thermal power plants (values) Lignite Hard coal Gas Oil Bio Availability 85 75 9 95 7 2
downward Price [EUR/MW] Price [EUR/MW] Price [EUR/MW] upward Price [EUR/MW] Price [EUR/MW] Price [EUR/MW] (Spinning) reserve prices in 23 4 35 3 25 2 15 Average:. EUR/MW StdDev:.9 EUR/MW 1% 5% % 4 35 3 25 2 15 Average: 6.8 EUR/MW StdDev: 29.5 EUR/MW 1% 5% % 4 35 3 25 2 15 Average: 5. EUR/MW StdDev: 12.8 EUR/MW 1% 5% % 1 5 1 5 1 5 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average:.1 EUR/MW StdDev: 1. EUR/MW 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average:.2 EUR/MW StdDev: 2.9 EUR/MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Norway Germany Great Britain 1% 5% % 1% 5% % 4 35 3 25 2 15 Average: 3.1 EUR/MW StdDev: 12.8 EUR/MW 1% 5% % 1 1 1 5 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 21