Chart Collection for Morning Briefing December 6, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
325 3 275 Figure 1. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 8-18 (ratio scale) 325 3 275 25 25 225 225 175 175 15 125 -day moving average 15 125 75 75 5-56.8% (517) -16.% (7) -19.4% (157) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% -5.8% (62) (34) -5.8% (19) 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-7.4% (28) -12.4% (96) -13.3% () -.2% (13) -.2% (64) Note: Corrections are declines of % or more, while minor ones are 5%-% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 2 19 18 17 Figure 2. S&P 5 INDEX 14 15 16 17 18 19 Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s. 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 2 19 18 17 Page 3 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
14 Figure 3. S&P 5 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs. I/B/E/S earnings data) (percent, quarterly) Q3 14 12 12 8 8 6 6 4 S&P 5 Operating Profit Margin I/B/E/S data (12.8) S&P data (12.4) 4 2 2 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Standard & Poor s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS). 25 Figure 4. S&P 5 REVENUES (yearly percent change) 25 15 15 5 Q3 5-5 -5 - -15 - -25 S&P 5 Revenues Per Share (8.5) Aggregate* (6.8) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - -15 - -25 * S&P quarterly data, not per share. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 4 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. Figure 5. US TREASURY -YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Interest s -Year Bond Yield (2.91) 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.8) Fed Funds Target (2.13) 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 12/5 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 45 4 35 3 Figure 6. YIELD CURVE (basis points) -Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target (79) 2-Year Treasury (11) 45 4 35 3 25 25 15 15 5 5-5 -5-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Federal Reserve Board. - Page 5 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
58 57 56 55 54 Figure 7. GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES (sa) Global M-PMIs Total (52.) Developed Economies (52.8) Emerging Economies (5.8) 58 57 56 55 54 53 53 52 Nov 52 51 51 5 5 49 49 48 47 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: JP Morgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM. 48 47 15 5 Figure 8. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Nov Q3 65 6 55 5-5 45 - -15 - -25 S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management. 4 35 3 Page 6 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
26 24 Figure 9. S&P 5 FORWARD P/E RATIO (weekly) 26 24 22 22 18 Forward Price/Earnings Ratio* (15.9) 18 16 11/29 16 14 14 12 12 8 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 8 * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. 135 13 125 1 Figure. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (=, daily) Oil Price Peak QE Terminated Oil Price Trough Trump Wins 12/5 135 13 125 1 115 115 1 5 & Tariffs on China Threatened 1 5 95 95 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 9 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 7 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
16 15 14 13 1 1 9 8 Figure 11. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) 16 15 14 13 1 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7 6 5 4 3 -day moving average * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics. 85 75 65 Figure 12. S&P 5 ENERGY REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 85 75 65 55 55 45 18 19 11/29 45 35 35 25 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 25 15 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 15 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 8 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
83 73 63 53 Figure 13. S&P 5 ENERGY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 83 73 63 53 43 33 11/29 43 33 23 18 19 23 13 13 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 3 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 5, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 9 / December 6, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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