ÜRÜMQI The Need For and Potential Benefits of Advanced Technology Vehicles in China Workshop On Advanced Technology Vehicles April 24-25, 23 SHANGHAI Beijing, PRC HARBIN SHENYANG BEIJING TIANJIN LANZHOU XI AN WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU GUANGZHOU HARBIN SHENYANG BEIJING ÜRÜMQI TIANJIN LANZHOU XI AN SHANGHAI WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU GUANGZHOU Outline: Vehicle Trends & Forecasts Associated Problems Air Pollution Global Warming Oil Imports Advanced Technologies Could Help Solve These Problems Motor Vehicle Production in China China Vehicle Population Has Grown Rapidly Thousands 2, Millions 2 Commercial Vehicles Cars 1,5 1, 5 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 22:Domestic Made Vehicles Over 3 million 23: Already Growing Rapidly Others Buses Trucks Cars 15 1 5 196 197 198 199 2 Forecast: 4 to 7 times More Cars By 22
Motorcycle Annual Production and Sales Recent Developments in China s Vehicle Industry Indicate Substantial Future Growth *1, 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Output Sales volume 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Year FAW VW; $1 Billion Venture with Toyota DMC recent link with Honda; $1 Billion Venture with Nissan; Peugeot JV SAIC joint venture with VW & GM; Already Largest Car Sales in China; GM- Daewoo JV The Vehicle Population Is Forecast To Grow Rapidly Air Pollution Problem is Already Severe 14 25 VP(1 4 units) 12 1 8 Cars Buses Trucks VP(1 4 units) 2 15 Motorcycle 6 1 4 2 5 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 A Median Estimate is 12 million Vehicles & 2 Million Motorcycles by 23 Tsinghua University
What pollutants are of concern? Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane Haze Particles (PM1/PM2.5) (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) Carbon monoxide (CO) Ozone (ROG + NOx) Toxics - Diesel particles -Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos 3 BEIJING: O3 Concentration in 1997-1999 Ozone concentration in Beijing O 3 Concentration in Beijing Number of nonattainment days Number of nonattainment hours Max. Hourly concentration (µg/m 3 ) 1997 71 434 346 1998 11 54 384 1999 119 777 PM2.5 Concentrations (µg.m -3 ) Beijing: PM 2.5 Mass Concentration Levels 1999-2 Weekly variations 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 9/24-9/3 1/6-1/14 1/21-1/27 11/4-11/11 11/18-11/25 12/2-12/9 12/16-12/23 12/3/99-1/6/ 1/13-1/2 1/27-2/3 2/1-2/17 2/24-3/2 3/9-3/16 3/23-3/3 4/6-4/13 4/2-4/27 5/4-5/11 5/18-5/25 6/1-6/8 6/15-6/22 6/29-7/6 7/13-7/2 7/27-8/3 8/1-8/17 8/24-8/31 9/7-9/14 9/21-9/28 Sampling Dates Chegongzhuang Tsinghua 3 NOx ( mg/ m ). 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. BEIJING: NOx Concentration In 1998 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 2# and 3# monitoring stations are near to the arteries, and 6# monitoring station is far away from the arteries. 2# 3# 6#
year No. Of cities China: Urban NOx Problems Non-attainment cities number NOx Concentration in Chinese cities rate (%) Non-attainment for Class II standard number rate (%) Non-attainment for Class III standard number rate (%) 1995 88 32 36.4 3 3.4 1996 88 27 3.7 25 28.4 2 2.3 1997 94 32 34.1 29 3.9 3 3.2 1998 96 32 33.3 29 3.2 3 3.1 Non-attainment cities for Class III Beijing, Guangzhou Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Projected Increase in Emissions in Pearl River Delta Without Additional Controls 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 75% SO2 4% NOx Motor Vehicle Pollution in Urban Areas Motor vehicles contribute nearly 5% of NOx emissions in metropolitan cities About 1/3 of Major Cities Exceed ambient NOx NAAQS; CO concentration generally higher than national standard in traffic areas; Air Pollution Causes Adverse Health Effects Photochemical pollution emerging in big cities; Vehicles becoming a main source of air pollution in urban areas.
Health Impacts of Air Pollution Premature Deaths Cancer Developmental Effects Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis Million Metric Tons Source: EIA 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Global Warming Carbon Emissions United States China Projected 198 199 2 21 22 23 Fastest carbon growth globally 2nd largest after U.S. in Energy: Production Consumption CO 2 emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions From the Road Transport Sector 14 25 Fuel Consumption Trends in China Million Tonnes CO 2 emission (million tons) 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 2 15 1 5 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Other Crude Oil Fuel Oil Diesel Kerosene Gasoline LPG
Net import (million tons) Oil Imports Have Been Rising Rapidly Since 1993 8 6 Total Oil Crude Oil 4 Oil Product 2 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2-2 -4 Road transport oil consumption (million tons) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Road Transport Oil Consumption Will Increase Fivefold by 23 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Road transport oil demand will be 57% of the total in 22, and 87% in 23, making it the principal source of oil demand and oil imports at that time. - Tsinghua Growing Dependence on Imported Oil By 22, China will import 8%of its oil demand Million barrels per day (mbd) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Use in China 1999 22 Current and Projected Road Transport Oil Demand in China Road Transport Oil Consumption Million Tons 5 4 3 2 1 Consumption Fraction Fraction of Total Oil Consumption % 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Source: Tsinghua University Source: IEA
Efforts in China To Address Urban Air Pollution Initial Clean Air Strategy Developed Complete Lead Phase Out by 2 European Emissions Standards Introduced For Cars & Trucks Individual Cities Supplementing National Actions I/M Pilot Being Developed in Shanghai Alternative Fuels For Buses & Taxis Catalyst Retrofits in Beijing Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time Before Category 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 PC ECE 153 EURO I EURO II LDV& LDT ECE 153 EURO I EURO II HDDV None EURO I EURO II Motorcycle ECE R 4 EURO I EURO II Beijing, Shanghai Introduced Euro 2 in 23 Overview of Fuel Quality Specifications for Gasoline ITEM LIMITS Code of Standards GB 484-1993 GB 1793-1999 1) Lead (g/l, max.).35, (.45).5 Sulphur (% Mass, max.).15.8 Manganese (g/l, max.).18 Phosphorus (g/l, max.).13 RON, Min. 9, 93, 97 9 (RON+MON)/2, Min. 85, 89, 92 85 Aromatics HC (vol. %, max.) 4 Olefins (vol. %, max) 35 Benzene (vol.%, max) 2.5 Vapour pres s ure Wi nt er( Sep. - Feb. ), kpa max. 88 88 Summer(Mar. - Aug. ), kpa max. 74 74 Oxygen (wt. %, max.) 2.7 Note: 1) Implemented from Jan. 1, 2 Overview of Fuel Quality Specifications for Light Diesel in China ITEM LIMITS 1) Code of Standard GB 252-94 GB 252-2 2) Cetane Number, min 45 (4) 45 Sulfur, %(m/m), max.2 (.5, 1.).2 Flash point PM,, min 65 (45) 55 (45) Ash, wt%, max.1 (.2).1 (.2) Acidity, mg/koh/1ml, max 5 (1) 5 (1) Oxidation stability, mg/1ml, max. 2. 2.5 Density@2, kg/m3 CCR 1%, wt %, max. 3. 3 Note: 1) Limits in ( ) are for basic qualified diesel; 2) GB 252-2 went into effect on Jan. 1, 22.
Motor Vehicle Emissions Trends in China With Current Program China Addressing Emissions & Energy Consumption But More is Needed 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 THC CO NOx PM CO2 1 th 5-Year Plan Hybrid Vehicles Ready For Production Prototype Fuel Cell Vehicle Parity With EU Emissions Standards by 21 Beijing Green Olympics Shanghai World Expo SETC Developing Fuel Economy Program. 2 25 21 215 22 Advanced Technologies Could Help Address These Problems Advanced Technology Alternatives Substantially Reduce Conventional Urban Pollutants Reduce Oil Consumption Through High Efficiency Major Challenges: Cost Vehicle Availability Hybrid Vehicles Available in Short Term Very Low Pollution Very Good Fuel Economy Low Noise Urban Buses & Trucks Very Good in Stop&Go Lowers Pollution Exposure Fuel Cell Vehicles Longer Term Near Zero or Zero Pollution 2 X Fuel Economy or More Low Noise Significant Challenges Remain Cost Infrastructure
Next Steps Near Zero Sulfur Fuels Euro 4/5 Emissions Standards Fuel Efficiency Standards For Light Duty Vehicles Emphasize Hybrids For Special Events Olympics World Expo MOST Investment Offer Incentives To Offset Higher Price Special Concessions Manufacturers Fleet Managers Conclusions High Vehicle Growth Is Leading To Rapid Increases in Vehicle Emissions Air Quality Already Degrading Initial Pollution Control Effort Reflects A Good Start Unleaded Gasoline Euro 1/Euro 2 Standards For New Vehicles In Use Vehicle Controls Conclusions (2) Most Vehicle Pollutants Will Continue To Go Up Without Additional Controls Goal Should Be State of the Art Controls by About 21 Much Cleaner Fuels Will Be Required Fuel Consumption/CO2 Must Also Be Addressed Hybrids Could Help Substantially in Short Term Fuel Cells Could Play Important Long Term Role if Challenges Can Be Overcome