APERC Transport Modelling: BAU 44 Meeting of the APEC Expert Group on Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EGEE&C) Martin Brown-Santirso 20-21 October 2014
Outline Brief on APERC s transport model Results of BAU case Total transport energy demand by transport mode by fuel type Road energy demand by vehicle type Vehicle stock by technology 2
Transport Energy Demand in APEC Region APEC Final Energy Demand by Sector in 2010 (5 th Ed. APEC Energy Outlook) APEC Transport Final Energy Demand in 2011 (IEA Energy Data 2013) 24% 10% 4% 4,931 Mtoe 32% 30% Industry Other Non-Energy Domestic Transport International Transport 14% 13% 1,448 Mtoe 73% Domestic Road Transport Domestic Non-Road Transport International Transport 3
Transport Sector Modelling Techniques Transport sub-sector Sub-mode/ vehicle class Model Energy Demand in 2011 (Mtoe) Percent Domestic Road Transport - Light and Heavy vehicles - Motorcycles Bottom-up (Fleet Model) 1,053 73% Domestic Non-Road Transport - Rail - Pipeline - Water - Air - Non-specific Top-down (Econometric Model) 37 53 33 80 6 3% 4% 2% 6% 0.4% International Non-Road Transport - Maritime - Aviation Top-down (Econometric Model) 109 78 8% 5% 4
APERC s Vehicle Fleet Model (1980-2011) (2011-2040) Macroeconomic data GDP & Population Urbanisation Crude oil price Vehicle data Vehicle population Vehicle age distribution Vehicle sales Vehicle fuel economy Vehicle travel distance Energy data Retail fuel prices Blend ratio of biofuel IEA road energy use Input (Microsoft Excel) Vehicle ownership model -> vehicle stock (GDP per capita, vehicle saturation, total vehicle population, income elasticity, urban density) Vehicle stock turnover model -> vehicle sales and vehicle retirement (vehicle population by type and vehicle distribution by age) Vehicle consumer choice model -> share of vehicle technologies (fuel cost, purchase prices, driving range, refueling infrastructure, etc..) Vehicle travel model -> travel distance (fuel cost, income, vehicle ownership, efficiency improvement, urban density) Main Model (STELLA System Dynamic Software) Output (Microsoft Excel) 5
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 oil price (USD per bbl) real GDP (millions USD 2005 PPP) 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 population (millions) Key Assumptions: GDP, Population, Oil price Thailand s GDP and Population 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - Real GDP in USD 2005 PPP Pop = 0.17% CAGR GDP = 3.91% CAGR projection Population 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - Crude oil price projection (WEO, IEA 2013) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - CAGR = 0.97% projection 6
Vehicle Ownership Model Gompertz Function V t e e GDPt V t Vehicle population saturation of shapecoefficient ratecoefficient GDP t GDP(real) vehicle ownership PPP *Source - Dargay J, Gately D and Sommer M (2007) Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030. 7
Historical vehicle ownership curves of APEC economies (1980-2011) (Source: APERC, 2014) 8
Vehicle ownership (unit / 1,000 people) Vehicle Ownership Curves Thailand case 600 500 400 Total vehicle ownership (excld motorcycle) Light vehicle ownership Heavy vehicle ownership Vehicle ownership by Gompertz function Estimated total vehicle ownership up to 2040 Ownership 2040 = 492 (95%) Saturation = 518 300 200 100 y = 1.0303x - 12.421 R² = 0.8806 Ownership 2011 = 173 (33%) 0 1,000 10,000 100,000 Real GDP per capita in USD 200 PPP (Source: APERC, 2014) 9
Survival rate Vehicle Stock Model Vehicle Sales t = Expected Stock t (Vehicle Stock t-1 Vehicle Retirement ) 100% Surviving Stock 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Light vehicle survival rate data Light vehicle survival probability by Weibull fnc Light vehicle survival curve (input) 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 Vehicle Age Vehicle survival curve 10
Vehicle Consumer Choice Model Market Share (S) = Type of Vehicle Technology Powertrain Technology Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) e (β FCU FC +β PP U PP +β DR U DR +β CMDD U CMDD +β PLDD U PLDD ) e (β FCU FC +β PP U PP +β DR U DR +β CMDD U CMDD +β PLDD U PLDD ) i Fuel Type Gasoline Diesel LPG CNG Gasoline/Diesel Gasoline/Diesel Electricity Electricity Hydrogen = vehicle choice coefficient U = utility coefficient Note: Fuel cost (FC) Purchase price (PP) Driving radius (DR) Convenient medium distance destinations (CMDD) Possible long distance destinations (PLDD) Logit vehicle choice coefficient ( ) Variable Coefficient Fuel cost -1.066 Purchase price -2.327 Driving radius 0.382 CMDD 0.517 PLDD 0.997 11
Results of BAU case - APEC Region -
Mtoe 11% 0% Total Transport Energy Demand by Mode 2011 2040 13% 0% 10% 4% 2% 1,450 Mtoe 3,000.0 2,500.0 CAGR = 1.79% 3% 2% 10% 2,430 Mtoe 73% 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 72% 500.0 0.0 2011 2020 2030 2040 Road Rail Pipeline Water Air Others 13
Mtoe Total Transport Energy Demand by Mode (excd. Inter) 3% 6% 0% 4% 3% 2011 2040 1,264 Mtoe 3,000.0 2,500.0 CAGR = 1.71% 2% 7% 1% 3% 2% 2,069 Mtoe 84% 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 85% 500.0 0.0 2011 2020 2030 2040 Road Rail Pipeline Water Air Others 14
Mtoe 1% 5% 1% Total Transport Energy Demand by Fuel Type 2011 2040 1% 7% 2% 1% 34% 1,450 Mtoe 57% 3,000.0 2,500.0 CAGR = 1.79% 40% 2,430 Mtoe 47% 2% 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 2% 500.0 0.0 2011 2020 2030 2040 Gasoline Bioethanol Diesel Biodiesel LPG Natural Gas Electricity Hydrogen Others 15
Mtoe Road Transport Energy Demand by Vehicle Type 2011 2040 5% 6% 26% 1,060 Mtoe 69% 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 CAGR = 1.78% 28% 1,760 Mtoe 66% 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 2011 2020 2030 2040 Light Vehicle Heavy Vehicle Motorcycle 16
Million Vehicles Light Vehicle Stock by Technology 2011 2040 1% 1% 11% 9% 3% 570 Million 1,600 1,400 CAGR = 3.08% 18% 1,370 Million 50% 87% 1,200 1,000 4% 2% 800 600 14% 400 200-2011 2020 2030 2040 ICE-Gasoline ICE-Diesel LPG CNG HEV PHEV BEV FCEV 17
Million Vehicles Heavy Vehicle Stock by Technology 2011 2040 2% 1% 8% 4% 2% 1% 7% 51 Million 140 120 CAGR = 3.09% 122 Million 100 89% 80 60 40 20 86% - 2011 2020 2030 2040 ICE-Gasoline ICE-Diesel LPG CNG HEV PHEV BEV FCEV 18
Million Vehicles Motorcycle Stock by Technology 2011 2040 0% 0% 268 Million 600 500 CAGR = 2.05% 482 Million 100% 400 300 100% 200 100-2011 2020 2030 2040 ICE Motorcycle Electric Motorcycle 19
Vehicle Ownership by Economy 20
Vehicle Stock by Economy 21
Vehicle Sales by Economy 22
Road Transport Energy Demand by Economy 23
Thank you Questions & Comments 24