Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC www.actresearch.net State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market October & YTD 017 Data Published November 0, 017 Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market is published monthly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), 00 Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 703. Phone: 81-379-085, Fax: 81-378-5997, e-mail: trucks@actresearch.net Copyright 017 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher.
State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Report Contents Page(s) Bus Market Statistics... 1-6 N.A. Current Month N.A. Year to Date U.S. Current Month U.S. Year to Date Canada, Export, Mexico Current Month Canada, Export, Mexico Year to Date School/Urban Bus Graphs... 7-11 Net Orders Build & Y/Y % Change Net Orders & Build, 6 Month Avg. Cancellation Rate Backlog & Backlog/Build Ratio Build & Backlog/Build Ratio N.A. Retail Sales Net Orders/Retail Sales Ratio Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio BUILD LOCATION: The geography of a built unit reflects the market for which it is destined, NOT the country in which the actual production takes place. Current N.A. OEM build occurs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market
BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA October 017 CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - 60 60 6,03 11 319 6,67 6,57. Build - 315 30 35,351 61 568,980 3,35. Inventory 0-9 11,087 3 538,868,980. New Orders - - 3 3 1,88 9 76 1,813 1,85. Orders Cancel - - 16 17 35 37. Net Orders - - 30 30 1,7 7 59 1,778 1,808. Retail Sales - 30 3,6 78 53,993 3,07 MONTHLY PERFORMANCE: October Build Days Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - 1 1 16 107 3 6 135 151. Net Orders: un/dy. - - 1 1 67 1 81 8. Retail Sales:un/dy. - 0 1 11 1 136 138. Orders Cancel: % BL - - 3.3% 3.3% 0.3% 1.8% 5.3% 0.5% 0.6%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - -.1 0..7.0 0.6.3.1. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** - - 3. 3.5 1.7 3.3 1. 1.7 1.7 *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics through electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 1
YEAR-TO-DATE STATISTICS BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA October 017 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - 60 60 6,03 11 319 6,67 6,57. Build - 30 300 60 3,619 618,058 37,95 37,915. Inventory 0-9 11,087 3 538,868,980. New Orders - 18 30 338 31,80 655,111 36,06 36,38. Orders Cancel - 1 0 1 1,173 11 87 1,57 1,593. Net Orders - 17 300 317 30,107 53 3,8 3,7 3,791. Retail Sales 8 300 31 3,6 596 3,970 37,188 37,500 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE: October 08 Build Days 1 Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - 1 3 157 3 0 179 18. Net Orders: un/dy. - 0 1 1 11 3 18 161 163. Retail Sales:un/dy. 0 0 1 1 15 3 19 17 175. Orders Cancel: % BL - - 33.3% 35.0% 19.% 98.% 90.0%.3%.%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - -.0 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.7 1.7. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** 51.0-3.1 3.7 1.3. 1. 1.3 1. *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics through electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page
BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* UNITED STATES October 017 CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - - - 5,880 11-5,99 5,99. Build - 315-315,1 57 -,199,51. Inventory 17 - - 17 3,600-3,8 3,859. New Orders - - - - 1,36 9-1,85 1,85. Orders Cancel - - - - 16-18 18. Net Orders - - - - 1,0 7-1,67 1,67. Retail Sales - -,85 78 -,363,367 MONTHLY PERFORMANCE: October Build Days Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - 1-1 97 3-100 11. Net Orders: un/dy. - - - - 65-67 67. Retail Sales:un/dy. - 0-0 10-107 108. Orders Cancel: % BL - - - - 0.3% 1.8% - 0.3% 0.3%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - - - -.9.1 -.9.5. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** - - -.5 1.7 3.3-1.7 1.7 *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics through electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 3
YEAR-TO-DATE STATISTICS BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* UNITED STATES October 017 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - - - 5,880 11-5,99 5,99. Build - 30-30 30,76 59-31,070 31,390. Inventory 17 - - 17 3,600-3,8 3,859. New Orders - 18-18 9,57 651-30,178 30,196. Orders Cancel - 1-1 1,13 110-1, 1,3. Net Orders - 17-17 8,395 51-8,936 8,953. Retail Sales - 8-8 30,65 589-31,05 31,06 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE: October 08 Build Days 1 Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - - 17 3-19 151. Net Orders: un/dy. - 0-0 133 3-135 135. Retail Sales:un/dy. - 0-0 1 3-15 15. Orders Cancel: % BL - - - - 19.3% 96.5% - 0.7% 0.7%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - - - - 1.9 1.9-1.9 1.9. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** - - - 1.7 1.. - 1.3 1.3 *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics through electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page
BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* CANADA, MEXICO, EXPORT October 017 CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - 60 60 15-319 73 533. Build - - 30 30 09 568 781 811. Inventory 3-9 95 87 1 538 1,06 1,11. New Orders - - 3 3 5-76 38 360. Orders Cancel - - - - 17 17 19. Net Orders - - 30 30 5-59 311 31. Retail Sales - - 30 30 177-53 630 660 MONTHLY PERFORMANCE: October Build Days Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - - 1 1 10 0 6 36 37. Net Orders: un/dy. - - 1 1-1 1 16. Retail Sales:un/dy. - - 1 1 8-1 9 30. Orders Cancel: % BL - - 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% - 5.3% 3.6% 3.6%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - -.1.1 0.8-0.6 0.6 0.7. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** - - 3. 3.3.9-1. 1.7 1.8 *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics through electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 5
YEAR-TO-DATE STATISTICS BUS INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* CANADA, MEXICO, EXPORT October 017 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ SCHOOL SHUTTLE/ URBAN/ GRAND VARIABLE BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL BUS COMM OTHER TOTAL TOTAL. Backlog - - 60 60 15-319 73 533. Build - - 300 300,13,058 6,5 6,55. Inventory 3-9 95 87 1 538 1,06 1,11. New Orders - - 30 30 1,753,111 5,868 6,188. Orders Cancel - - 0 0 1 87 330 350. Net Orders - - 300 300 1,71 3,8 5,538 5,838. Retail Sales - 300 30,157 7 3,970 6,13 6,38 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE: October 08 Build Days 1 Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day - - 1 1 10 0 0 30 31. Net Orders: un/dy. - - 1 1 8 0 18 6 7. Retail Sales:un/dy. 0-1 1 10 0 19 9 30. Orders Cancel: % BL - - 33.3% 33.3% 6.6% - 90.0% 69.8% 65.7%. Backlog/Build @ rate in months** - -.0.0 0.7-0.8 0.8 0.8. Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** 7.6-3.1 3..3 1.5 1. 1.7 1.8 *Excludes Transit/City/Intercity applications; Includes Class 8 School Buses ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of Classes 5-8 vehicle statistics electronic media is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 6
N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Net Orders 6 Units (000s) Net Orders 6MMA 5 3 1 0 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Build 6 5 Units (000s) Y/Y % Chg. 6MMA Build Y/Y % Chg. 3 0 1 0 0-0 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17-0 Source:ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 7
N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Net Orders 1 Mo. Avg. and Build 5500 Units Total Build Net Orders 1MMA 5000 500 000 3500 3000 500 000 1500 1000 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 35 % N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Cancellation Rate Monthly 6MMA 30 5 0 15 10 5 0 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 8
1 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Backlog and BL/BU Units (000's) BL/BU Ratio (Months) BL/BU Ratio Backlog 1 10 8 6 6 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 0 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 5 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Build and BL/BU Units (000's) BL/BU Ratio (Months) BL/BU Ratio Build BU 6MMA 3 6 5 3 1 1 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 0 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 9
6 5 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: Retail Sales Units (000s) Y/Y % Chg. Retail Sales 6MMA Y/Y % Chg. 3 50 1 5 0-5 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17-50 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus: IN/RS Ratio Units (000s) IN/RS Ratio Retail Sales Inventory IN/RS Ratio 1 3 1 10 11 1 13 1 15 16 17 0 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 017 November 017 N.A. Classes 5-7 Bus Market Page 10
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STATE OF THE INDUSTRY SERIES NORTH AMERICA BUS MARKET REPORT ACT Research Co., LLC, 017