GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NEW-CROP OUTLOOK FOR OILSEEDS GRAIN ACADEMY 2018 01 NOVEMBER 2018, Varna/BULGARIA
AGENDA 1-OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY 2 OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA 3 2018/19 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS 4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY
OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY
IN 2017/18 SEASON; WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND 565 MLN T. ( 16/17, 560 )
HOWEVER, BY 17/18 SEASON, THE OUTPUT OF OILSEEDS WAS LOWER THAN WHEAT AND EVEN THE HALF OF CORN. - CORN, 1.04 MLRD T ( 16/17, record 1.08 ), - WHEAT, 760 MLN T ( 16/17, 750 ), - OILSEEDS, 565 MLN T ( 16/17, 560 ), - RICE, 490 MLN T ( 16/17, 485 ).
SOYBEAN WAS THE LOCOMOTIVE OF OIILSEEDS WITH OVER 60% SHARE.
IN 2017/18 SEASON; - SOYBEAN, 340 MLN T ( 16/17, record 350 ), - RAPESEED, 70 MLN T ( 16/17, 68 ), - SUNSEED, 49.2 MLN T ( 16/17, 50.25 ), - COTTONSEED, 44.5 MLN T ( 16/17, 39 ).
OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA
IN OUR PRESENTATION; WE WILL TRY TO PROVIDE OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR MAJOR BLACK SEA COUNTRIES INCLUDING TURKEY, UKRAINE, RUSSIA ROMANIA, BULGARIA, MOLDOVA AND KAZAKHSTAN.
1- TURKEY TURKEY IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER COUNTRY AND THE MAIN DESTINATION FOR BLACK SEA OILSEEDS EXPORTERS.
TURKISH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Soybean 125 4% Rapeseed 45 1% Safflowerseed 30 1% 2017/18 Season, 3.175 KMT total Cottonseed 1.350 43% Sunseed 1.625 51% Source: SUNSEEDMAN
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS THE MOST RAISED OILSEED OF TURKEY. COTTONSEED ALSO HAS BIG SHARE. HOWEVER, OTHER OILSEEDS ARE JUST MINOR ONES.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY IMPORTED 3.29 MLN T OF OILSEEDS AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 2.34 MLN T & 71% SHARE.
TURKISH OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT ) Safflowerseed 91 3% Sun Flour 4 0% CornGerm 91 3% Rapeseed 29,5 1% Linseed 121,5 4% 2017 Calendar Year, 3.29 Mln T total Sunflower 610 18% Soybean 2.341 71% Source: TURKSTATS
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY PAID 3.24 MILLIARD USD FOR THE IMPORTS OF OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; TURKEY EXPORTED ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS.
2- UKRAINE UKRAINE IS THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY AND THE BIGGEST SUPPLIER OF OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES IN BLACK SEA.
UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Rapeseed 2.300 11% Linseed 50 0% 2017/18 Season, 20.3 Mln T total Soybean 4.450 22% Sunseed 13.500 67% Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS THE LEADER OILSEED OF UKRAINE AS WELL. BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON, UKRAINE; - RAISED 20.3 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF 565 MLN T, IE 3.6% SHARE. - RAISED 13.5 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF 49.2 MLN T, IE 27.5% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; UKRAINE EXPORTED 5.2 MLN T OF OILSEEDS AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 2.87 MLN T & 55% SHARE.
UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) Linseed 57 1% 2017 Calendar Year, 5.2 Mln T total Rapeseed 2.137 41% Soybean 2.866 55% Sunflower 142 3% Source: OIL WORLD
DUE TO AROUND 10% EXPORT-DUTY AND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES, ALMOST ALL OF UKRAINIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY AND SO UKRAINE BECOMES THE LEADER GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL EXPORTER BY CREATING ADDED- VALUE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; UKRAINE IMPORTED ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS EXCEPT HYBRID PLANTING SEEDS.
3- RUSSIA RUSSIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST IMPORTER AFTER TURKEY ), BUT ALSO THE SECOND BIGGEST EXPORTER OF SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL IN BLACK SEA.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Safflowerseed 100 0% Linseed 575 3% Rapeseed 1.500 9% 2017/18 Season, 17.13 Mln T total Soybean 3.700 22% Sunseed 11.250 66% Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF RUSSIA AS WELL. BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON, RUSSIA; - RAISED 17.13 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF 565 MLN T, IE 3.0% SHARE. - RAISED 11.25 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF 49.2 MLN T, IE 23% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; RUSSIA EXPORTED 1.660 KMT OF OILSEEDS AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 533 KMT & 32% SHARE.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) 2017 Calendar Year, 1.660 kmt total Linseed 533 32% Soybean 520 31% Safflowerseed 100 6% Sunflower 315 19% Rapeseed 192 12% Source: OIL WORLD
DUE TO 6.5% EXPORT-DUTY ( IN EFFECT SINCE SEP 1, 2016 VS 9.88% EARLIER ) AND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES, ALMOST ALL OF RUSSIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY AND SO RUSSIA ALSO BECOMES AMIDS SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL EXPORTERS BY CREATING ADDED-VALUE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; RUSSIA IMPORTED 2.54 MLN T OF OILSEEDS AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 2.24 MLN T & 88% SHARE.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT ) Rapeseed 34 1% Sunflower 105,5 4% Groundnuts 139 5% 2017 Calendar Year, 2.54 Mln T total Sesameseed 14 1% Linseed 16 1% Soybean 2.237 88% Source: OIL WORLD
4- ROMANIA ROMANIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER, ).
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Linseed 5 0% 2017/18 Season, 4.76 Mln T total Rapeseed 1.900 40% Sunseed 2.500 53% Soybean 350 7% Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF ROMANIA AS WELL. BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN ALSO GETTING HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON, ROMANIA; - RAISED 4.76 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF 35 MLN T, IE 13.5% SHARE. - RAISED 2.5 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF 9.85 MLN T, IE 25% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; ROMANIA EXPORTED 3.14 MLN T OF OILSEEDS AND RAPESEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 1.53 MLN T & 49% SHARE.
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) Soybean 272 9% 2017 Calendar Year, 3.14 Mln T total Rapeseed 1.530 49% Sunflower 1338 42% Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; ROMANIA IMPORTED 500 KMT OF OILSEEDS AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 275 KMT & 55% SHARE.
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT ) Groundnuts 12 2% Sesameseed 3 1% 2017 Calendar Year, 500 kmt total Rapeseed 77 15% Soybean 133 27% Sunflower 275 55% Source: OIL WORLD
5- BULGARIA BULGARIA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER ).
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Groundnut 5 0% 2017/18 Season, 2.47 Mln T total Soybean 35 2% Rapeseed 475 19% Sunseed 1.950 79% Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF BULGARIA AS WELL. RAPESEED OUTPUT ALMOST STAGNATES AND THERE ARE SOME SOYBEAN OUTPUT TRIALS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON, BULGARIA; - RAISED 2.47 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF 35 MLN T, IE 7.0% SHARE. - RAISED 1.95 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF 9.85 MLN T, IE 20.0% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; BULGARIA EXPORTED 1.25 MLN T OF OILSEEDS AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 785 KMT & 63% SHARE.
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) Soybean 4 0% 2017 Calendar Year, 1.25 Mln T total Rapeseed 255 25% Sunflower 785 75% Source: OIL WORLD
AS SUNFLOWER; BULGARIA EXPORTS - OIL-BEARING/TO BE CRUSHED, - DEHULLED ( LEADER GLOBALLY ), - SUNFLOWER FLOUR ( BY PRODUCT OF DEHULLING SECTOR )
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; BULGARIA IMPORTED 240 KMT OF OILSEEDS AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 178 KMT & 74% SHARE.
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT ) Groundnuts 14 6% Soybean 5 2% 2017 Calendar Year, 240 kmt total Rapeseed 43 18% Sunflower 178 74% Source: OIL WORLD
6- MOLDOVA MOLDOVA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE MAIN ORIGIN OF TURKISH SUNSEED IMPORTS).
MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Soybean 50 5% Rapeseed 70 7% 2017/18 Season, 1.020 kmt total Sunseed 900 88% Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF MOLDOVA ( INCLUDING TRANSNISTRIA ) AS WELL. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOWER RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; MOLDOVA EXPORTED 602 KMT OF OILSEEDS AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 521 KMT & 86.5% SHARE.
MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) Rapeseed 63 10% 2017 Calendar Year, 602 kmt total Soybean 18 3% Sunflower 521 87% Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; MOLDOVA IMPORTED ONLY 4 KMT OF OILSEEDS ( MOSTLY HYBRIDS ) INCLUDING SOYBEANS, SUNFLOWER AND GROUNDNUTS.
7- KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY.
KAZAKH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT ) Rapeseed 250 12% 2017/18 Season, 2.04 Mln T. total Linseed 550 27% Sunseed 850 42% Soybean 250 12% Cottonseed 140 7% Source: OIL WORLD & SUNSEEDMAN
AS IT'S SEEN; SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF KAZAKSTAN. THE COUNTRY IS ALSO ONE OF THE BIGGEST GLOBAL LINSEED PRODUCERS/EXPORTERS.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; KAZAKHSTAN EXPORTED 540 KMT OF OILSEEDS AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH 292 KMT & 54% SHARE.
KAZAKH OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT ) 2017 Calendar Year, 540 kmt total Rapeseed 79 15% Soybean 17 3% Sunflower 152 28% Linseed 292 54% Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR; KAZAKHSTAN IMPORTED ONLY 30 KMT OF OILSEEDS INCLUDING 14 KMT OF GROUNDNUTS, 9 KMT OF SUNSEED AND 7 KMT SOYBEAN
2018/19 SEASON GLOBAL & REGIONAL PROSPECTS
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ), - RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ), - EU-28, 9.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.85 ), - ARGENTINA, 3.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.45 ), - CHINA, 3.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.9 ), - TURKEY, 1.430 KMT ( 17/18, 1.625 ), - USA, 900 KMT ( 17/18, 975 ), - TOTAL, record 51.4 MLN T ( 17/18, 49.2 ), 2.2 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR REGIONAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ), - RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ), - ROMANIA, 2.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ), - BULGARIA, 1.9 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.95 ), - TURKEY, 1.43 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.63 ), - MOLDOVA, 950 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ), - KAZAKHSTAN, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 850 ), - TOTAL, 34.63 MLN T ( 17/18, 32.58 ), 2.05 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR GLOBAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - CANADA, 21.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 21.25 ), - EU-28, 19.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 22.0 ), - CHINA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.0 ), - INDIA, 6.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.5 ), - AUSTRALIA, 2.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.85 ), - UKRAINE, 2.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ), - RUSSIA, 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ), - TOTAL, 66.15 MLN T ( 17/18, 70.0 ), 3.85 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR REGIONAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - UKRAINE, record 2.70 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ), - RUSSIA, record 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ), - ROMANIA, 1.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.9 ), - BULGARIA, 425 KMT ( 17/18, 475 ), - KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ), - TURKEY, 115 KMT ( 17/18, 45 ), - MOLDOVA, 70 KMT ( 17/18, 70 ), - TOTAL, 7.26 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.54 ), 720 KMT
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR GLOBAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - USA, record 128 MLN T ( 17/18, 120 ), - BRAZIL, record 121 MLN T ( 17/18, 119.5 ), - ARGENTINA, 52 MLN T 17/18, 35 ), - CHINA, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16.0 ), - INDIA, 10.35 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.35 ), - PARAGUAY, 10 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.8 ), - CANADA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 7.75 ), - TOTAL, record 370 MLN T ( 17/18, 340 ), 30 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON OUR REGIONAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWINGS; - UKRAINE, 4.40 MLN T ( 17/18, 4.45 ), - RUSSIA, record 4.1 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.7 ), - ROMANIA, 325 KMT ( 17/18, 350 ), - KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ), - TURKEY, 100 KMT ( 17/18, 125 ), - MOLDOVA, 50 KMT ( 17/18, 50 ), - BULGARIA, 25 KMT ( 17/18, 35 ), - TOTAL, 9.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.96 ), 290 KMT
AS IT'S SEEN; GLOBAL SUNSEED AND ESPECIALLY SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT RAPESEED OUTPUT WILL BE LOWER IN 2018/2019 SEASON.
AS IT'S ALSO SEEN; BLACK SEA SUNSEED, RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS WILL BE HIGHER IN 2018/2019 SEASON.
PRESENTATION SUMMARY
BLACK SEA IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUNSEEED OUTPUT AND TRADE. UKRAINE & RUSSIA ARE GLOBAL LEADERS IN SUNSEED OUTPUT AND THE EXPORTS OF SUNOIL & SUNMEAL. ROMANIA IS THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER. SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE AT RECORD 34.63 MLN T BEING 2.05 MLN T MORE THAN 2017/18 SEASON. BLACK SEA IS RATHER SMALL PART OF GLOBAL RAPESEED OUTPUT ( 66.15 MLN T ) WITH ONLY 11% SHARE ( 7.26 MLN T ). RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE HIGHER WITH RECORD UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN NEW-CROP ALBEIT BALKAN LOSSES. BLACK SEA MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR GLOBAL SOYBEAN OUTPUT WITH ONLY 2.5% SHARE. NEVERTHELESS, UKRAINE IS THE BIGGEST IMPORT ORIGIN OF TURKEY. SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER VS 2017/18 SEASON. WITH RECORD NEW-CROP SIZES, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCOMOTIVE SOYBEAN, THE PRICES OF OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES MAY BE UNDER PRESSURE DURING 2018/19 SEASON. WEATHER CONDITIONS AND US/CHINESE TRADE WARS ARE CRUCIAL.
Great thanks for your kind attention голямо благодаря
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE VEYSEL KAYA http://www.sunseedman.com veyselkaya@sunseedman.com SKYPE : SUNSEEDMAN GSM : 00 90 542 273 50 63 Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/sunseedman Linkedin : http://www.linkedin.com/in/sunseedman Twitter : http://www.twitter.com/sunseedman