Investor Presentation US Roadshow May 18-20, 2015
DISCLAIMER This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations. 2
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook 3
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook 4
Overview of PTTGC PTTGC at a Glance PTT Group s Chemical Flagship Thailand s largest ethane-base cracker with integrated aromatics and refining business Highly competitive cost structure with pricing arrangement for gas feedstock based upon equitable return on investment for both PTT and PTTGC Fully integrated petrochemical and refinery operations with diversified product portfolio covering full hydrocarbon chain Committed to operational excellence targeting best in class/ first quartile business efficiency Ranked in Dow Jones Sustainability Indices Chemicals Sector for 2 nd Consecutive Year Incorporated on October 19, 2011 from the amalgamation of PTTAR and PTTCH 2014 Sales : $17.6 bn; Adj. EBITDA: $1.6 bn Asset size: $13.2 bn (as of Dec 31, 14) Number of employees: 3,742 persons Strong footprint in fast growing regions with 6 operating countries Shareholding Structure Historical Dividend Payment 4,509 mil shares Foreign Limit <=37% Dividend Policy >=30% * From pro-forma financial statements 5
Our Business Structure 7 Business Units Thailand s Largest Petrochemical Player 280 (Thousand Barrels per Day) Petroleum Distillation Capacity (1) 8.75 (Million Tons per Annum) Petrochemical Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Refinery Capacity* & Key Products Aromatics Olefins Polymers EO-Based Performance Green Chemicals High Volume Specialties 280 KBD (1) 2,259 KTA 2,988 KTA 1,590 KTA 470 KTA 829 KTA 610 KTA LPG Light Naphtha Reformate Jet A1 Diesel Fuel Oil Benzene Toluene Paraxylene Orthoxylene Mixed Xylenes Cyclohexane Ethylene Propylene Mixed C4 Pyrolysis Gasoline Butadiene Butene-1 HDPE LLDPE LDPE Polystyrene Ethylene Oxide ( Ethylene Glycol Ethanolamines Ethoxylate Methyl Ester Fatty Acid Fatty Alcohol Grycerin Specialty Oleochemicals Bioplastics Phenol Bisphenol A Toluene Dilsocyanate Hexamethylene Diisocynate and Derivatives (1) Refinery = 145 KBD, Condensate Splitter Units = 135 KBD * Calculate (1) Refinery proportionate = 145 KBD, Condensate by percent share Splitter Units = 135 KBD 6
Key Competitive Strengths 1 Strategic Relationship with PTT with Secured Feedstock Position and Offtake Agreements 4 2 Experienced Management with Strong Track Record Highly Competitive Cost Structure 4 Strategic location creates proximity to suppliers and customers 3 Fully Integrated Operations with Flexible Feedstock, Enhanced Optimization and Diversified Product Portfolio 7
1 Strategic Relationship with PTT with Flexible Feedstock and Secured Product Offtake Feedstock Supply Product Marketing Customers 79% Polymers (1) Ethane, Propane, LPG Condensate Domestic 70% Import 30% Olefins & Derivatives Aromatics 66% C 2 -C 4 C 5 -C 9 Captive Use 21% 34% 54% 46% EO Based Others Others Others Crude Oil Refinery C 10 -C 25 30% Others 70% Feedstock Supply Commercial Agreements Flexible Feedstock and By-Product Enhancement PTTGC's refinery is one of the most complex refineries in Thailand, with Nelson Index of 10.17 and refining capacity accounting for 13% of country s total capacity Value enhancement from by-product exchange among Olefins, Aromatics and Refinery units highlights operational integration and efficiency: - CR from Aromatics units sent to Refinery to produce middle distillates - Pygas from Olefins unit sent to Aromatics for BTX - Offgas from Refinery sent to Cracker for Olefins products Product Marketing Commercial Agreements (1) PTT owns 50%, PTTGC and IRPC each owns 25% in PTTPM Domestic / Export Volume Portion Export 30% Domestic 70% Export 40% Export 60% Domestic 60% Domestic 40% Refinery Aromatics Polymers 8
2 Highly Competitive Cost Structure & Performance mainly driven by Olefins and Derivatives Typical Revenue Breakdown 5% 1% 5% 21% 48% USD/Ton 2014 Global Ethylene Cash Cost by Region 20% s Typical Adj. EBITDA Breakdown Source: IHS (formerly CMAI) Note: MDE = Middle East, NAM = North America, NEA = Northeast Asia, SEA = Southeast Asia, WEP = Western Europe. MDE cash costs are average values of Iran and Saudi Arabia. % Adj. EBITDA Margin 3% 5% 3% 16% 27 27 25 56% 16% 3 2 8 10 4 3 5 8 3 7 2 5 10 10 9 s Refinery Aromatics Olefins Green HVS PTTGC 2012 2013 2014 9
3 Fully Integrated Petrochemical and Refinery Operations with Diversified Product Portfolio Feedstock Upstream Intermediates Downstream Proximity to Suppliers and Customers HDPE Exchange Stream Products By-Products Ethylene EO MEG LDPE LLDPE Natural Gas Light Naphtha Cracker Propylene EB EB/SM / SM PO Polyols Ethanolamine Ethoxylate PS ABS OffGas Mixed C 4 Butadiene PP Condensate Crude Crude Palm Oil Agricultural Products REFINERY & SHARED FACILITIES Reformate, Heavy Naphtha Refinery Pygas Aromatics Plants Condensate Residue, Hydrogen C 3,C 4 Cracker Bottom, Hydrogen Benzene Toluene Paraxylene Orthoxylene Oleochemicals PLA Plant Succinic Acid Plant AROMATICS OLEFINS POLYMERS PTT Phenol Cumene Cyclohexane Phenol Adipic Acid HDMA TDI / HDI PTA PA Fatty Alcohol Methyl Ester (B - 100 ) Phenol Acetone HDI TDI EO-BASED PERFORMANCE BPA MMA SBR Caprolactam Nylon Nylon 6 Caprolactam Nylon 6 System House GREEN CHEMICALS PC Epoxy Epoxy Resins PMMA Nylon 6,6 PU PU Polyester Fiber/ PET Fiber PET Resin / Resin Plasticizer Petroleum Products - LPG - Reformate - Light Naptha - Jet Fuel - Diesel - Fuel Oil PLA Succinic Acid 1 st Screen for Further Feasibility Study PTTGC does not currently produce these products Not qualify for 1 st Screen HIGH VOLUME SPECIALTIES 10
4 Strategic location of each plant in Map Ta Phut Industrial Complex creates proximity to suppliers and customers 11
5 Experienced Management with Strong Track Record and Organization Structure to support Growth PTTGC Board of Directors Mr. Prasert Bunsumpun Chairman Audit Committee CG Committee Nomination and Remuneration Committee Risk Management Committee VP Internal Audit President and CEO Mr. Supattanapong Punmeechaow COU Up Stream Petrochemical Business COD Down Stream Petrochemical Business EVP GPC Refinery and Shared Facilities EVP GPC Aromatics EVP GPC Olefins EVP Engineering and Maintenance SVP Quality, Safety, Occupational Health and Environment EVP Polymers Business Unit EVP EO Based Performance Business Unit EVP Green Chemicals Business Unit SVP - High Volume Specialties Business Unit EVP Marketing, Commercial and Supply EVP Strategic Execution and Excellence EVP Finance and Accounting EVP Corporate Affairs Head Science and Innovation EVP International Business Operation EVP Corporate Strategy Mr. Patiparn Sukorndhaman EVP Organizational Effectiveness EVP Project Executive Director * Effective October 1, 2014 12
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook 13
MORE CLARITY ON STRATEGIES WITH PRUDENT ROADMAP 14
PTTGC Project Timeline 2015 HDI Monomer France TOCGC Improvement Aromatics II Debott. mlldpe HDI Derivative Thailand Phenol II PO/Polyol US Petrochemical Complex Indonesia Petrochemical Complex 3Q/15 4Q/15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Short Term Mid Term Long Term 2022 Asset Reconfiguration DOWNSTREAM OPPORTUNITIES REFINERY Reformate 970 KTA Upstream Product Available Ethylene 425 KTA* mlldpe PO/Polyol PU ABS Naphtha AROMATICS 880-1,320 KTA OLEFINS Propylene Mixed C4 Pygas Benzene 180 KTA 70 KTA 70 KTA PP SM Phenol/ Acetone SBR PS PC PMMA Potential Products * 425 KTA of which 230 KTA contract expiring in 2016 Excess volume available for asset reconfiguration 15
CORE UPLIFTS Operational Excellence Marketing Excellence Synergy Excellence Additional Synergy Debottleneck Total 414 378 357 356 108 75 108 108 231 211 21 0.3 149 149 35 38 149 149 156 129 86 74 14 13 19 45 68 83 86 86 2013A 2014A 2015 2016 2017 2018 Core Uplift Programs 2015 Target (MUSD) 1Q/15 Actual (MUSD) FY2015 Estimate (MUSD) Synergy Excellence 149 11 35 Marketing Excellence 86 26 112 2015 COMPLETING PROJECTS SYNERGY Off Gas Upgrading at Olefins Delay to 2Q/15 DEBOTTLENECKING & EXPANSION Phenol 2 Project Target COD: 4Q/15 TOCGC Plant Improvement Project Target COD: 3Q/15 PROJECT PROGRESS CAPACITY/ CAPEX Phenol +250 KTA Acetone +155 KTA CAPEX 345 M$ EOE +90 KTA CAPEX 94.2 M$ 99% * PROGRESS 97% 85% * Operational Excellence 68 18 76 Aromatics 2 Debottlenecking Project PX +115 KTA BZ +35 KTA OX +20 KTA 76% Total 303 55 223 Target COD: 4Q/15 CAPEX 128.8 M$ *Updated as of March 2015 16
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex Petrochemical Complex World Scale Ethane Cracker Utilize ethane from shale gas as feedstock Capacity : 1 MTA Ethylene Derivatives HDPE : 700 KTA MEG : 500 KTA EO : 100 KTA Location : Dilles Bottom, Ohio Capex: Approx. US$ 5.7 Billion Key Criteria for FID Investment cost justify investment return Enough ethane capacity with capped price Partner can distribute products in N. America Timeline BOD approved FEED Study Mar, 2015 CHECK POINTS FID 3Q/16 COD 4Q/20 FEED Selection Dual-FEED Contractor Selection Construction 17
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex Site Location: Ohio s Key Advantages Close to feedstock supply Site location is in the center of ethane network with nearby fractionation units Allowing the project to utilize existing pipelines and provide flexibility for ethane delivery Pipelines in this region are mostly newly built with less than 2 years of use. : organization promoting job creation and economic development of Ohio JobsOhio offers an aggressive incentive package for the Project i.e. state job creation tax credits, workforce training grants, infrastructure improvement grants, and local tax credits Accessible by railway/ highway/ waterway Readiness of infrastructure and utility Close to demand: (% of total US & Canada) HDPE: 55% (4,500 KTA) MEG: 65% (1,400 KTA) Availability and Quality of Workforce 90,000 local skilled workers in Ohio JobsOhio with the construction trades and educational system will deliver the required workforce. 18
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex Feedstock Discussed with 9 potential upstream and midstream suppliers with volume of 2.3-3.4 MTA of ethane which exceeds required volume of 1.25 MTA Expected ethane supply contract tenor of 10-20 years. Aim to cap ethane price with ceiling As a result of 73 customer visits in 2014, all customers are willing to buy from us. PE visits covered > 30% of US demand (42 visits) EOEG visits covered > 80% of US demand (31 visits) Product suppliers in NE America HDPE Marketing PTTGC, Shell, Braskem Combined Capacity 2,450 KTA (60% of NE demand) MEG PTTGC Partner Partner Selection Criteria Trader / Marketing Expertize Product Offtaker Local connection & Practice PTTGC is working with 6 selected potential partners Funding PTTGC is talking to potential lenders in Thailand and study funding scheme in the US in parallel Technology Cracker : Stone & Webster Stone & Webster has the highest number of projects and capacity share for the new project in US. HDPE : INEOS Group Limited (INEOS) INEOS technology can produce products that fit to US market and has market share in N.America. EOEG : Scientific Design (SD) PTTGC has long experience in SD technology in Thailand. 19
Preliminary Configuration 1-STEP ADJACENCIES: Petrochemical Complex in Indonesia Refinery Upgrading Project Petrochemical Complex Project Existing Capacity Expanding Capacity Potential Partner Refinery Capacity 125 KBD Feedstock from Balongan Refinery Feedstock Required Naphtha : 2.25 MTA LPG : 0.6 MTA Balongan Refinery Expansion + Petrochemical Complex Consider collaboration to integrate Balongan Refinery with petrochemical complex PERTAMINA and a partner is looking to upgrade/expand its Balongan refinery 2015 2016 PID by end of 2015 2017 FID by 2Q/17 2022 COD Naphtha based cracker 1.5 MTA HDPE LDPE EO/EG Updates PERTAMINA and partner is determining size and configuration of Refinery upgrade/expansion Availability of petrochemical feedstock from refinery expansion Configuration and product yield of the expansion Domestic demand of refined product PP Pygas BD MTBE 300 KTA 400 KTA 460 KTA 544 KTA 373 KTA 125 KTA 116 KTA 20
PO/Polyol 1-STEP ADJACENCIES PU Chain: PO/Polyols PO (Propylene Oxide) EO (Ethylene Oxide) Polyols (Polyether Polyols) Formulation System House TDI Major Applications HDI Major Applications HDI TDI PO / POLYOL Project Location : Rayong, Thailand Capacities PO : 200 KTA Polyols & System house : 100-150 KTA CAPEX ~ 1 billion USD Target COD : 4Q/19 Update: Finalizing HOA agreement with partner Feasibility study 2015 2016 Set up JV company End 2016 Approve for Construction 2019 COD 4Q/19 21
1-STEP ADJACENCIES PU Chain: Vencorex HDI Derivatives TDI VENCOREX Thailand HDI derivatives plant in Thailand Capacity: 12 KTA CAPEX : 40 M.Euro Target COD : 4Q/15 Construction Status : 71.6% Marketing Existing customers of Vencorex France in Asia approx. 8% of Asia Pacific Market Seek new customers through premarketing by increasing direct sales especially with key accounts HDI in Asia growth at 6% per annum VENCOREX USA : Exploring the possibility of HDI derivatives expansion in the US HDI Monomer VENCOREX France TDI conversion to world-scale HDI monomer Capacity: 70 KTA CAPEX : 17 M.Euro Target COD : 2Q/16 Update: Ordered long lead item 2015 2016 End 1Q/16 S/D to tie in COD 2Q/16 Sustaining strong TDI customer base in Europe Maximize special grade TDI (raffinate) Application development i.e. TDI for Coating/ Adhesives/ Sealants/ Elastomers market Target on direct customers while keeping good connection with worldwide traders Continue R&D for TDI Process Improvement 22
GREEN: Bio-Hub Palm-Based Bio Fuels Oleochemical Methyl Ester Vegetable based oil uses to blend with diesel and create bio diesel Fatty Acid and Fatty Alcohol Basic oleochemical product uses for personal care industry Glycerin By product of methyl ester and fatty alcohol for food, medicine, and personal care products Sugar-Based 3D Printing Bio Plastic Succinic Acid Feedstock for bioplastic i.e. PBS Polylactic acid (PLA) Bio degradable plastic R&D Biotechnology Bio-hub Increase competitiveness to create sustainability 23
GREEN: Bio-Hub Concept Create Sustainability in a Long Term Integration Interdependence feedstock which creates feedstock security Saving on logistic cost from proximity to feedstock location Saving on energy cost from turning waste into biofuel Saving from infrastructure sharing 24
GREEN: NatureWorks PLA Value Chain Agricultural Feedstock Fermentation (Lactic Acid) Monomer/Polymer (Lactide/PLA) Polymer (PLA) Application HLA Backward Integration US Plant : Lactic Acid contributes 50-70% of PLA cost, moving upstream to integrate Lactic Acid supply will increase competitive position; driving PLA business in a sustainable model 2 nd PLA Plant in Thailand Local Feedstock Thailand Plant : Integration with Cargill s Lactic Acid Technology will enable NatureWorks to invest in second fully integrated PLA Plant located in Thailand, supporting Thai National BIO-HUB Policy 25
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook 26
OVERVIEW OF BUSINESS UNITS PERFORMANCE (Unit: MB) 1Q/14R 4Q/14R 1Q/15 YoY % + /(-) QoQ % + /(-) Sales Revenue 141,455 121,085 99,251-30% -18% EBITDA 10,931 272 10,473-4% 3750% EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 0% 11% 3% 10% Net Profit 6,320 (4,780) 5,631-11% 218% EPS (Baht/Share) 1.40 (1.06) 1.25-11% 218% Adjusted EBITDA* 11,498 13,948 11,606 1% -17% Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 12% 12% 4% 0% Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) 1Q/15 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure % Adjusted EBITDA Margin 22% Sales Revenue 3% 6% 21% 99,251 MB 49% 11,606 MB Adjusted EBITDA 1Q/14R 4Q/14R 1Q/15 48% 7% 3% 1% 25% 16% Business Unit : Refinery 3 6 6 Aromatics 3 1 13 Olefins and Derivative 24 25 19 Green 8 2 6 HVS 3 6 12 Average 8 12 12 27
Olefins and Derivatives 1Q/15 EBITDA Margin 19% - HDPE price @ 1,188 $/Ton decreased 23% from avg. 2014 price - Variable cost (mainly consist of utility and chemical cost) per ton decreased 10% from avg. 2014 2Q/15 Expects EBITDA Margin to increase - HDPE price is expected to be in the higher level than 2012 - Ethane flow is expected to remain the same level as 2012 EBITDA Margin (%) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 27% 27% 26% 19% 30% EBITDA Margin increase 25% 20% 1,000 HDPE Price ($/Ton) 800 600 1,380 1,488 1,544 1,188 1,373 15% 10% 400 200 Ethane Flow (Ton/Hr) - 241 236 240 256 240 2012 2013 2014 1Q-15 QTD (10-May-15) 5% 0% 28
STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION Statements of Financial Position Loan Type THB 385 Bn THB 380 Bn Liab. Cash +ST Investment IBD CA Interest Rate Currencies PPE Share Holder s Equity 63 % Fixed 55 % THB 37 % Float 45 % USD & Others Non CA As of Dec. 31, 2014 As of Mar. 31, 2015 Cost of long term debts ~ 4.59% (Include W/H Tax) Average loan life after refinancing - 5.11Years Maturity of Financial Debt* as at Mar. 31, 2015 Key Financial Ratios THB Bn PTTGC PPCL Others 34.6 Net IBD/EBITDA 1.30 1.40 1.47 NET IBD/Equity 1.97 1.59 ROE 12.14% 13.09% 12.16% 8.49% 9.01% 8.36% 5.05% 4.91% ROA 6.86% 6.40% 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.23 15.7 12.7 9.9 10.7 8.9 6.2 10.8 0.7 0.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 31 Mar. 14 30 Jun. 14 30 Sep. 14 31 Dec. 14 Treasury policy Net IBD to Equity ratio of 0.7x Net IBD to EBITDA ratio of 2.4x 31 Mar. 15 31 Mar. 14 30 Jun. 14 30 Sep. 14 31 Dec. 14 31 Mar. 15 * After Refinance 29
CAPEX TO SUPPORT GROWTH Approved CAPEX Plan 2015-2019* Uncommitted 5 Years Investment CAPEX 738 26 19 325 545 Unit: USD mn 614 616 39 7 58 36 280 262 387 365 389 66 47 175 38 24 32 138 193 226 251 252 Green 1-step Core uplift Phenol Annual Maintenance Total Total Growth Project 263 248 251 36 6 1 228 242 251 36 6 1 1-Step Adjacencies Green 5% $ 4.5 Bn 64% 31% Core Uplift $ 2.5 Bn Cash Flow From Operation $ 2 Bn Debt Financing 2013A 2014A 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $1 Bn secured from USD Bond issued in Sep 12 *FX = 30 THB/USD 30
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook 31
CONCLUSION & MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 Market Outlook Crude price in improve in short term with high volatility Crude demand/supply will be more balanced from growing demand during low oil price with slower U.S. crude output, however, record high of crude net long position Expect Dubai crude to increase in 2H/15 to 64 $/bbl at the end of the year. Aromatics margins slightly improve Paraxylene still in oversupply however, start up of new capacity maybe delayed. Chinese regulators are more stringent after Dragon Aromatics incident. Benzene demand improved from low crude oil price, however, higher naphtha crackers operating rate may increase benzene supply from additional pygas volume. Polyethylene strong prices from firm demand Polyethylene market is quite balanced with more demand from emerging market MEG margin recovers from polyester demand growth MEG market is more balanced from growing demand from polyester. Low inventory level of MEG in China. 32
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook Appendix 1Q/15 Financial Performance Detail Market Outlook 33
Changes in Accounting Standards - PACK 5 TFRS 10 & TFRS 11 : Material effect to PTTGC TFRS 10 : Consolidated Financial Statements TFRS 11 : Joint Arrangements TAS 27 TFRS 10 TAS 31 TFRS 11 % of share holding De facto Control Joint Venture Joint Venture Equity Method Consolidate PTTGC is under control of PTT and need to be consolidated Proportionate Consolidated or Equity Method Equity Method To use equity method for all joint venture entities Impact of TFRS 10 Impact of TFRS 11 Effect to PTTGC o All business combination between the companies under PTT s control need to realize at cost Previous Common Control Transaction o 2006 : BPE, PTTPE o 2011 : PTTCH + PTTAR o 2013 : GPSC Effect to Statement of Income o Reduction in depreciation expense (of PPA value) Effect to Statement of Financial Position o Reduction in total assets (PPA & Goodwill) o Reduction in total equity (deficit in equity) Effect to PTTGC o Joint Venture : to apply equity method instead of previously used proportionate consolidation method Joint Venture Entities o TEX (50%) o Emery (50%) o ESC (50%) o NatureWorks (50%) Effect to Statement of Income o Reduction in revenue and expense o Increment in share of profit from investments o No effect to the Company s net profit Effect to Statement of Financial Position o Reduction in total assets & liabilities o Increment in investment in joint ventures 34
1Q/15 INCOME STATEMENT CONSOLIDATED 1Q/14R** 4Q/14R** 1Q/15 YoY QoQ MB % MB % MB % MB % MB % Sales Revenue 141,455 100 121,085 100 99,251 100 (42,204) -30% (21,834) -18% Feedstock Cost (117,581) (83) (95,112) (79) (75,721) (76) (41,860) -36% (19,391) -20% Product to Feed Margin 23,874 17 25,973 21 23,530 24 (344) -1% (2,443) -9% 1 Variable Cost (7,062) (5) (7,358) (6) (6,809) (7) (253) -4% (549) -7% 2 Fixed Cost (4,075) (3) (4,039) (3) (3,514) (4) (561) -14% (525) -13% 3 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV (567) (0) (13,676) (11) (1,133) (1) (566) -100% 12,543 92% 4 Gain/(Loss) Commodity Hedging 184 0 1,229 1 (188) (0) (372) -202% (1,417) -115% 5 Other Income 990 1 1,421 1 926 1 (64) -6% (495) -35% 6 SG&A (2,413) (2) (3,278) (3) (2,339) (2) (74) -3% (939) -29% EBITDA 10,931 8 272 0 10,473 11 (458) -4% 10,201 3750% 7 Depreciation & Amortization (3,857) (3) (4,040) (3) (3,979) (4) 122 3% (61) -2% EBIT 7,074 5 (3,768) (3) 6,494 7 (580) -8% 10,262 272% Finance Cost (1,176) (1) (1,117) (1) (1,076) (1) (100) -9% (41) -4% 8 FX Gain/(Loss) 617 0 (451) (0) 526 1 (91) -15% 977 217% 9 Shares of profit/(loss) from investments 36 0 (312) (0) 237 0 201 558% 549 176% 10 Income Tax Expense (402) (0) 923 1 (499) (1) 97 24% 1,422 154% Net Profit 6,149 4 (4,725) (4) 5,682 6 (467) -8% 10,407 220% Profit/(loss) attributable to: *** Owners of the Company 6,320 4 (4,780) (4) 5,631 6 (689) -11% 10,411 218% Non-controlling interests (171) (0) 55 0 51 0 222 130% (4) -7% Adjusted EBITDA * 11,498 8 13,948 12 11,606 12 108 1% (2,342) -17% Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) ** Restated 1Q/2014 and 4Q/2014 Income Statements from the implementation of new accounting standards (Pack 5) 35
FO - DB Diesel - DB JET - DB ULG 95 - DB REFINERY PERFORMANCE 1Q/15 GRM reached Historical High Petroleum Products - Dubai Spread (USD/BBL) Total Intake (KBD) + 5% YoY +5% YoY +14% QoQ CDU U-Rate 91% 102% 101% 103% 102% 101% 102% 13.7 14.3 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.3 187.1 Crude Condenstate Residue & Others -9% YoY 203.7 198.9 208.0 209.2 +5% YoY +5% QoQ 198.6 208.1-9% YoY 0% YoY -4% QoQ 54.7 56.2 52.4 59.4 61.0 52.0 60.3 17.5 15.9 17.0 14.3 14.5 17.7 17.1 132.4 147.5 146.5 148.6 148.2 146.6 147.8-10% YoY -8% YoY +2% QoQ Gross Refinery Margin (USD/BBL) 17.9 16.1 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.3 Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting GRM (1.9) (8.1) (5.6) (8.3) (8.5) (8.4) (10.7) -3% YoY +78% YoY +67% QoQ 5.00 - (5.00) 5.14 5.83 0.94 0.78 4.12 0.66 1.61 2.08 0.33 0.84 0.73 0.70 3.52 4.41 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 0.98 (0.69) (2.92) (4.36) (14.68) 4.17 5.98 (1.50) (0.31) 5.00 - (5.00) Sales Volume (KBD) (10.00) (7.69) (10.00) +11% YoY 166 185 185 188 179 186 184 Naphtha + Ref. 14% 15% 16% 16% 10% 16% 16% Jet 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 15% 17% Diesel Fuel Oil Others 51% 50% 52% 51% 54% 45% 46% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 14% 12% 8% 8% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% -1% YoY -1% QoQ (15.00) Market GRM 3.52 4.41 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 GRM on CDU 4.37 5.61 5.52 5.74 4.81 6.30 7.97 GRM on CRS 2.87 2.77 2.85 2.76 2.82 2.57 2.58 (15.00) 36
Prices Naphtha - Cond AROMATICS PERFORMANCE Lower Breakeven Point from Low Crude Price PX FECP - Cond BZ Spot - Cond 1,479 1,301 922-1% YoY 380 375 380 370 557 Aromatics Products Prices and Spread (USD/Ton) Condensate Erawan PX FECP BZ Spot Korea 1,236 1,211 836-28% YoY 1,303 1,256 917 922 400 386 334 1,350 1,297 1,293 1,301 430 479 320-43% YoY -32% QoQ 217-14% YoY -17% QoQ 401 333 872 1,035 954 785 670 634 453-0 25 +31568% YoY 18 29 42 13 +131% YoY +229% QoQ 41 BTX U-Rate 300 200 100 - (100) (200) (300) (400) BZ Group PX Group Naphtha Group Other By- Products 313 17.47 296 (0.19) Market P2F 174 BTX U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons) 90% 81% 91% 89% 82% 63% 89% -6% YoY 38% 36% 38% 37% 36% 33% Products to Feed Margin (USD/Ton BTX) -12% YoY +6% QoQ 3,346 3,156 806 860 822 668 707 23% 23% 24% 23% 22% 21% 25% 45% 28% 30% 25% 28% 33% 35% 28% 10% 11% 12% 12% 9% 11% 2% 166 88 158 40.44 86 290 (85.91) (7.90) (68.54) (0.08) (0.02) 164 (398.22) 219 (27.63) (0.37) 127 Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting P2F 222 (235) 191 300 200 100 - (100) (200) (300) (400) 37
MEG ACP 0.65Ethylene HDPE - Naphtha Prices OLEFINS AND DERIVATIVES PERFORMANCE Softer HDPE price led to lower adjusted EBITDA margin 1,534 1,571 Olefins Derivatives Prices and Spread (USD/Ton) 1,488 1,544 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,487 1,543 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,093 1,202 1,113 1,182 1,143 921 HDPE Price -24% YoY -18% QoQ HDPE (FILM) SEA 1,488 1,544 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 LLDPE CFR SEA 1,487 1,543 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 LDPE CFR SE Asia 1,534 1,571 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 MEG ACP 1,202 1,113 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 Naphtha MOPJ 921 861 935 951 913 647 494 566 HDPE (FILM) SEA LLDPE CFR SEA LDPE CFR SE Asia MEG ACP Naphtha MOPJ 861 682 +21% YoY 1,639 1,605 1,601 935 951 913 620 618 691 1,440 1,448 1,431 1,035 802 +12% YoY -13% QoQ 694 1,192 1,188 1,181 903 494 647 U-Rate (%) Olefins 90% 91% 77% 91% 94% 101% 96% HDPE 106% 107% 93% 107% 114% 115% 109% LLDPE 103% 100% 99% 112% 84% 105% 110% LDPE 76% 105% 115% 93% 104% 106% 99% Total PE 99% 105% 99% 106% 104% 111% 107% MEG 94% 95% 65% 99% 112% 104% 108% Sales Volume (KTons) Olefins 756 708 134 168 182 224 196 HDPE 834 873 202 218 210 243 219 LLDPE 397 407 98 105 85 120 108 LDPE 218 323 72 92 75 83 80 Total PE 1,449 1,603 373 415 369 446 407 MEG 372 382 71 95 110 107 102 GAS : NAPHTHA Intake % Ethane Other Gas Naphtha KTons 3,709 3,727 799 932 965 1,032 991 10% 8% 13% 11% 4% 6% 7% 34% 35% 27% 35% 40% 36% 37% 56% 56% 60% 54% 55% 58% 56% Adjusted EBITDA Margin -36% YoY -4% YoY 27% 28% 323 26% -4% QoQ 24% 25% 25% 245 246 236 19% 206 182 152 38 38
BPA-Phenol Phenol-BZ Prices PHENOL AND BPA PERFORMANCE Improved from Better Sales Volume and BPA Product Margin 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1,708 1,695 1,301 Phenol/ BPA Prices and Spread (USD/Ton) 1,416 1,427 1,424 1,456 1,211 Benzene Phenol BPA 1,638 1,653 1,894 1,592 1,297 1,293 1,301 1,595 1,235 954 1,364 Phenol (CMP) 1,416 1,427 1,424 1,456 1,592 1,235 909 BPA (CMP) 1,708 1,695 1,638 1,653 1,894 1,595 1,364 Benzene 1,301 1,211 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 909 670 Sales Volume (KTons) U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons) U-Rate Phenol 126% 118% 78% 131% 132% 132% 131% BPA 100% 99% 70% 107% 104% 116% 114% Phenol BPA -7% YoY 46% 42% 40% 42% 48% 54% 58% 60% 58% 52% +55% YoY +6% QoQ 277 258 48 66 73 70 74 40% 41% 60% 59% 115 216 126 164 291 282 292 268 +88% YoY -8% YoY 214 197 302 360 +90% YoY -15% QoQ 240 +112% YoY +26% QoQ 454 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 19% 16% 13% 11% 7% 4% 4% 39
SHUTDOWN SCHEDULE Refinery Aromatics Olefins Butadiene HDPE LDPE LLDPE TOCGC Phenol I II PTTPE I-1 I-4/1 I-4/2 I-1 BPE I BPE II Phenol BPA 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 27 Aug - 2 Oct (37) 29 Mar-13 Apr (16) 27 Jun-31 Jul (35) 27 Mar-16 Apr (21) 6-30 Apr (25) 12-28 Jun (17) 19 Sep-5 Oct (17) 1-15 Sep (15) 24 May-8 Jun (15) 26 Jun-19 Aug (55) 14-20 May (7) 6-23 May (17) 4Q/15 40
AGENDA PTTGC s Business Overview Strategic Actions Financial Performance Market Outlook Appendix 1Q/15 Financial Performance Detail Market Outlook 41
CRUDE PRICE : HIGH VOLATILITY WITH SHORT-TERM UPWARD PRICE ARTIFICIAL DEMAND FROM CRUDE STOCKING Record High Global Stock HISTOTICAL HIGH NET LONG POSITION BUILDS SENTIMENT 283,459 Contracts DEMAND/SUPPLY MORE BALANCED IN 2H15 Source: IEA, JBC Growing demand from low oil price : IEA forecast 1.08 mbpd growth in 2015 Slower U.S. crude output : 9.373 mbpd from peak at 9.422 mbpd Unchanged OPEC position to keep fighting for market share High crude inventory globally (artificial demand) Record high of crude net long position + - FACTORS TO WATCH Geopolitics that may cause supply disruption How severe hurricane and winter season this year Economic growth better than expected Economic crisis from China s slowdown or Grexit Shale oil output keeps rising from higher price and more technology support Iran s sanction lifting U.S. crude export prohibition lifting 42
CRUDE PRICE : HIGH VOLATILITY WITH SHORT-TERM UPWARD PRICE ARTIFICIAL DEMAND FROM CRUDE STOCKING Record High Global Stock HISTOTICAL HIGH NET LONG POSITION BUILDS SENTIMENT 283,459 Contracts PRISM RAISES DUBAI PRICE (2015 AVG.) TO USD 60.8/BBL 1 Jan 15 Forecast: Dubai Avg. USD 53.0/bbl Source: PRISM, May 15 USD/BBL 75.0 2 Feb 15 Forecast: Dubai Avg. USD 55.4/bbl 75 1 70 65 3 May 15 Forecast: Dubai Avg. USD 60.8/bbl 69.1 3 2 60 64.0 55 50 45 40 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec + - FACTORS TO WATCH Geopolitics that may cause supply disruption How severe hurricane and winter season this year Economic growth better than expected Economic crisis from China s slowdown or Grexit Shale oil output keeps rising from higher price and more technology support Iran s sanction lifting U.S. crude export prohibition lifting 43
REFINING : GRM BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT TENDS TO BE SOFTENED GLOBAL GRM IMPROVES SINCE OIL PRICE FALLING NEW CAPACITY ADDITION IN ASIA/MIDDLE EAST Higher product demand Keep inventory due to contango price Lower fuel and loss UNIT: KBD Demand Growth 899-294 1,205 689 Net Capacity Addition 650 188 1,639 1,080 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Major Addition (KBD) Yanbu (Saudi) +400 (S/U) Ruwais (UAE) +417 (S/U) IOC (India) +300 (Q2) Petrobas (Brazil) +230 CNOOC (China) +140 (S/U) NOCL (India) +125 PetroChina +100 2015 Major Shutdown (KBD) BP (Australia) -102 Ruwais refinery (UAE 417 kbd) has a technical problem during commissioning RFCCU Source: IEA, JBC SOFTER MARGIN IN H2 FROM NEW CAPACITY START-UP USD/BBL Source: PRISM, May 15 20 17.8 16.0 16.0 16.3 16.9 14.4 14.5 14.8 16 Diesel-Dubai 16.1 12 14.6 15.4 13.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 ULG95-Dubai 12.2 8 Gasoline : Peak demand in July from U.S. driving season and Ramadan 4 Gasoil : Oversupply in region, must export to Europe 0-4 -8-12 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) -1.8-8.5-8.4-5.5-10.6-4.5-5.6-5.6 Fuel Oil-Dubai Fuel Oil : Still demand in Asia for bunkers and power plants + - FACTORS TO WATCH Higher oil demand and inventory build up from low prices Delayed start-up or technical problem of new capacity China s economic growth slow down More product export from U.S. refiners due to high margin High product inventory will squeeze future margim 44
AROMATICS : IMPROVING MARGINS BUT STILL IN DOWNTURN FIRE AT DRAGON AROMATICS SUPPORTS MARGIN BZ STARTS OVERSUPPLY BUT ASIA PRICE GOOD PARAXYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 1.34 2.08 4.67 3.79 O/R (%) 80.8 78.0 BENZENE DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 1.71 1.02 0.99 1.20 O/R (%) 72.5 72.4 MORE CHINA S BENZENE IMPORT IN 2015 2015 2014 Market is oversupply in 2015 Dragon Aromatics incident boosted PX margin in Q2 Incident at Dragon Aromatics on April 6 (PX 1.6 mtpa; BZ 460 ktpa) Market is oversupply in 2015 China s import considerably increases after crude prices become more stable USD/MT 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 PX/BZ MARGINS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FROM 1Q15 1,222 1,211 926 827 Paraxylene 810 Benzene PX-MOPJ BZ-MOPJ 670 939 948 Source: PRISM, May 15 992 838 853 879 360 372 333 379 387 388 350 256 176 278 293 275 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) + - FACTORS TO WATCH Limited reformate for aromatics feedstock in China from growing gasoline demand More stringent regulation in China after Dragon Aromatics incident Delayed start-up of new capacity Higher end-product demand from low oil price China s economic growth slow down Increased benzene supply from naphtha crackers pygas 45
AROMATICS : IMPROVING MARGINS BUT STILL IN DOWNTURN FIRE AT DRAGON AROMATICS SUPPORTS MARGIN PARAXYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY 2014 2015 BENZENE PRICE IN ASIA STRONGER THAN OTHER REGIONS USD/MT USGC Demand Growth (MT) 1.34 2.08 KOREA NWE Capacity Growth (MT) 4.67 3.79 O/R (%) 80.8 78.0 Market is oversupply in 2015 Dragon Aromatics incident boosted PX margin in Q2 Incident at Dragon Aromatics on April 6 (PX 1.6 mtpa; BZ 460 ktpa) USD/MT 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 PX/BZ MARGINS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FROM 1Q15 1,222 1,211 926 827 Paraxylene 810 Benzene PX-MOPJ BZ-MOPJ 670 939 948 Source: PRISM, May 15 992 838 853 879 360 372 333 379 387 388 350 256 176 278 293 275 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) + - FACTORS TO WATCH Limited reformate for aromatics feedstock in China from growing gasoline demand More stringent regulation in China after Dragon Aromatics incident Delayed start-up of new capacity Higher end-product demand from low oil price China s economic growth slow down Increased benzene supply from naphtha crackers pygas 46
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 POLYETHYLENE : STRONG PRICES FROM FIRM DEMAND CRACKER OUTAGE BOOSTS CURRENT ETHYLENE PRICE ASIAN ETHYLENE PRICE IS STRONGEST FROM OUTAGE ETHYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY ASIAN CRACKER CAPACITY OUTAGE USD/MT Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 2.89 5.59 2.90 4.70 O/R (%) 89.4 91.0 Market is tight in 2015 Unplanned shutdown more tightened market MT 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Ethylene Jan USD 912/MT Ethylene May USD 1,390/MT UNPLANNED PLANNED WE NEA SEA USGC USD/MT 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 HDPE PRICE SUSTAINS ABOVE USD 1,300/MT 1,546 Source: PRISM, May 15 Ethylene-MOPJ HDPE-Ethylene 1,363 1,404 1,418 1,443 1,188 1,398 HDPE 1,246 Ethylene 1,358 1,284 1,315 1,026 117 46 133 129 148 161 + - FACTORS TO WATCH More PE demand from emerging markets China s economic growth slow down Competition from polypropylene (PP) Iran sanction lifting 400 200 536 689 533 793 721 711 0 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) 47
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 POLYETHYLENE : STRONG PRICES FROM FIRM DEMAND CRACKER OUTAGE BOOSTS CURRENT ETHYLENE PRICE ETHYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 2.89 5.59 2.90 4.70 O/R (%) 89.4 91.0 Market is tight in 2015 Unplanned shutdown more tightened market MT 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 ASIAN CRACKER CAPACITY OUTAGE Ethylene Jan USD 912/MT Ethylene May USD 1,390/MT UNPLANNED PLANNED REGIONAL PE BALANCED WITH HIGH DEMAND FROM CHINA POLYETHYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY IN ASIA Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 3.62 4.38 1.96 4.55 O/R (%) 86.3 86.6 Market is quite balanced in 2015 China s import considerably increases after crude prices become more stable MT 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 HIGHER CHINA S PE IMPORT IN 1Q15 2.15 4Q14 2.52 HDPE LLDPE LDPE 1Q15 USD/MT 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 HDPE PRICE SUSTAINS ABOVE USD 1,300/MT 1,546 Source: PRISM, May 15 Ethylene-MOPJ HDPE-Ethylene 1,363 1,404 1,418 1,443 1,188 1,398 HDPE 1,246 Ethylene 1,358 1,284 1,315 1,026 117 46 133 129 148 161 + - FACTORS TO WATCH More PE demand from emerging markets China s economic growth slow down Competition from polypropylene (PP) Iran sanction lifting 400 200 536 689 533 793 721 711 0 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) 48
PROPYLENE/BUTADIENE : OVERCAPACITY LOWERS MARGIN ASIAN PROPYLENE CAPACITY GROWTH OUTPACES DEMAND 2015 MORE BUTADIENE SURPLUS PROPYLENE DEMAND/SUPPLY BUTADIENE DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) 2014 2015 2.73 2.06 Demand from Derivatives Demand Growth (MT) 2014 2015 0.17 0.36 Demand from Derivatives Capacity Growth (MT) 3.43 6.46 Capacity Growth (MT) 0.87 0.76 O/R (%) 90.4 87.5 O/R (%) 75.6 71.2 76% of new capacity in 2015 is on-purpose units New capacity come in Q1 and Q4 While new demand will come in 3Q15 46% of new capacity in 2015 is BDH, which is high cost USD/MT 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1,246 LOWER MARGINS FROM OVERCAPACITY 1,276 912 949 925 941 833 Propylene 962 856 Butadiene 861 890 713 Propylene-MOPJ Butadiene-MOPJ 385 414 355 300 339 219 Source: PRISM, May 15 BD margin will improve from more synthetic rubber demand 383 396 362 298 337 287 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) + - FACTORS TO WATCH Higher demand from tires from increasing light vehicle sales in China and more mileage from low oil price Lower supply from on-purpose units due to uneconomical Delayed start-up of new projects China s economic growth slow down Increase supply higher naphtha crackers O/R 49
27-Mar 3-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 30-Apr 8-May MEG : MARGIN RECOVERS FROM POLYESTER DEMAND GROWTH MEG DEMAND DRIVEN BY POLYESTER PRODUCTION CHINA POLYESTER PRODUCTION GROWS 7.8% MEG DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) Capacity Growth (MT) 2014 2015 0.82 1.36 1.29 1.61 O/R (%) 80.3 81.0 Market is more balanced in 2015 due to growing demand from polyester Sinopec Yangzi (280 kta) plant incident boosted short-term margin 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 CHINA S POLYESTER % O/R USD/MT 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 HIGHER MARGIN FROM POLYESTER GROWTH Source: PRISM, May 15 250 925 925 968 967 987 MEG 200 780 150 100 140 MEG 158 158 Margin 133 112 50 44 0 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) + - FACTORS TO WATCH China s restocking from current low level (600 kt) Delayed start-up of new projects Polyester-grade MEG from coal-to-meg comes sooner than expected Increasing supply from Middle East and U.S. after changing new reactors and catalysts China s economic growth slow down 50
PHENOL / BPA : PHENOL IN DOWNCYCLE; BPA MARGIN IMPROVES GLOBAL PHENOL CAPACITY GROWTH OUTPACES DEMAND GLOBAL BPA CAPACITY GROWTH ALSO OUTPACES DEMAND PHENOL DEMAND/SUPPLY BPA DEMAND/SUPPLY Demand Growth (MT) 2014 2015 0.20 0.21 Company S/U Nameplate (KTA) SSMC (China) Q1 250 Demand Growth (MT) 2014 2015 0.18 0.14 Company S/U Nameplate (KTA) Nan Ya (China) Q1 150 Capacity Growth (MT) 0.18 0.67 O/R (%) 83.4 80.7 CEPSA (China) Q2 250 FCFC (China) Q2 300 PPCL (Thailand) Q4 250 Capacity Growth (MT) 0.20 0.50 O/R (%) 75.4 72.1 Blue Star (China) Q2 60 Lihuayi (China) Q3 120 SSMC delayed from 4Q14 CEPSA and FCFC delayed from 1Q15 DECLINED MARGINS BUT 1Q15 IMPROVED MARGIN FROM DELAYED START-UP NEW PLATS USD/MT 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1,695 1,427 172 402 1,328 1,364 1,372 BPA 989 280 909 Phenol 393 271 327 1,259 996 989 Phenol Margin Source: PRISM, May 15 1,317 1,060 BPA Margin 325 205 197 223 244 290 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) + - FACTORS TO WATCH More phenol demand from caprolactam Delayed start-up of new capacity in 2H15 Slower demand growth of nylon China s economic growth slow down 51
METHYL ESTER / FATTY ALCOHOL : MARGIN STABLE KTPA 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 ME DEMAND RECOVERED FROM B7 IMPLEMENT Cooking Oil Demand B3 B6 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 1Q15: Demand slowed down due to B3 policy on Jan 22 to ease local palm oil shortage 2Q-4Q15: B7 resumed since Apr 16 Healthy ME demand following high biodiesel consumption B3 B7 STABLE MARGINS BOTH ME AND FA CPO Supply ME Capacity ME Demand MTPA 6 4 2 0 % O/R Capacity Demand FA DEMAND IS AFFECTED BY LOW OIL PRICE 69% 68% +Wilmar150KTA Global FA Demand vs Capacity FACTORS TO WATCH 62% +SABIC 83KTA +Hotung 80KTA 2014 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 1Q15: Demand slowed down from sluggish Chinese economy and aggressive competition from synthetic FA producers 2Q-4Q15: Upward trend oil price stimulate natural FA demand 60% 40% 20% USD/MT 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FA ME CPKO CPO ME Margin FA Margin 2014 2015 Q1/15 Q2/15(F) Q3/15 (F) Q4/15 (F) ME + Higher diesel consumption from low price + Government support policy + Lower feedstock cost from increasing palm oil supply + Delayed start-up of new capacities - Lower palm oil supply from climate change FA + Lower feedstock cost from increasing palm oil supply - Aggressive synthetic FA competition from low oil price - More trade barriers in many global markets i.e. tax wall, safeguard, anti-dumping 52
Thank You For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at IR@pttgcgroup.com 1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP - Corporate Finance & IR Thitipong.j@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8574 2 Puvadol Vasudhara IR Manager Puvadol.v@pttgcgroup.com +662-140-8712 3 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst Prang.c@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8327 4 Supika Charudhanes IR Analyst Supika.c@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8533 5 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator Chitima.j@pttgcgroup.com +662-1408713 53