Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 19-11 Released September 26, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Hog Inventory Down 2 Percent United s inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2014 was 65.4 million head. This was down 2 from September 1, 2013, but up 6 from June 1, 2014. Breeding inventory, at 5. million head, was up 2 from last year, and up 1 from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.4 million head, was down 3 from last year, but up 7 from last quarter. The June-August 2014 pig crop, at 29.5 million head, was down 1 from 2013. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, up 1 from 2013. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 10.16 for the June-August period, compared to 10.33 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.00 for operations with 1- hogs and pigs to for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory United s: September 1 Million head 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012
United s hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the September-November 2014 quarter, up 4 from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2013, and up slightly from 2012. Intended farrowings for December-February 2015, at 2.87 million sows, are up 4 from 2014, and up 3 from 2013. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 of the total United s hog inventory, unchanged from last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2013 through June 2014 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an adjustment of less than two and one half was made to the March 2014 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one was made to the June 2014 total inventory. An adjustment of less than four was made to the December-February 2014 pig crop. This report was approved on September 26, 2014. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson James M. Harris 2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Contents Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 2013 and 2014... 4 Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: 2012-2015... 5 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 2013 and 2014... 5 Quarterly Litter Rate United s... 6 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: June-August 2014... 6 Quarterly Sows Farrowed United s... 7 Quarterly Pig Crop United s... 7 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014... 8 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014... 8 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014... 9 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014... 9 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014... 10 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014... 10 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013... 11 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013... 11 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February 2013-2015... 12 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 2013 and 2014... 12 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 2013 and 2014... 13 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November 2012-2014... 13 Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 2013 and 2014... 14 Statistical Methodology... 14 Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates... 15 Information Contacts... 15 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 3
Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 2013 and 2014 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item March 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 65,072 5,836 59,236 61,4 5,1 55,643 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds... 50-119 pounds... 120-179 pounds... 1 pounds and over... 18,2 16,251 13,169 10,5 17,336 15,487 12,538 10,281 June 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 65,188 5,884 59,304 61,583 5,5 55,728 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds... 50-119 pounds... 120-179 pounds... 1 pounds and over... 19,135 17,078 12,414 10,678 17,9 16,071 11,491 10,166 September 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 66,6 5,816 61,0 65,361 5,0 59,441 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds... 50-119 pounds... 120-179 pounds... 1 pounds and over... 19,824 17,8 12,584 10,725 19,517 17,658 12,147 10,118 December 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 64,7 5,7 59,018 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds... 50-119 pounds... 120-179 pounds... 1 pounds and over... 18,389 16,0 12,576 11,2 1 May not add due to rounding. 4 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: 2012-2015 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item 2012 2015 Sows farrowing December-February 1 2... March-May... December-May 1... of 2015 as 2012 2013 of 2014 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () () () 2,813 2,5 5,9 2,788 2,6 5,5 2,765 2,7 5,562 2,870 June-August... September-November 3... June-November 4... 2,1 2,888 5,810 2,8 2,7 5,670 2,7 2,8 5,7 Pig crop December-February 1... March-May... December-May 1... 28,037 29,712 57,749 28,0 28,1 57,020 26,336 27,361 53,6 June-August... September-November... June-November... 29,587 29,319 58,6 29,862 28,253 58,115 29,539 Pigs per litter December-February 1... March-May... December-May 1... (number) (number) (number) (number) () () () 9. 10.09 10.03 10.08 10.31 10.19 9.53 9.78 9.65 June-August... September-November... June-November... 10.13 10.15 10.14 10.33 10.16 10.25 1 December preceding year. 2 Intentions for 2015. 3 Intentions for 2014. 4 Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November. 10.16 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 2013 and 2014 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Pig crop 2013 December-February 2... March-May... June-August... September-November... 1- head -4 head Pigs per litter on operations having 1 500-9 head 1,000-1,9 head 2,000-4,9 head 5,000+ head (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) 7.50 7.70 7. 8.00 8.30 8.60 8.70 8. 8. 9.20 9.30 9.10 9.40 9.70 9.70 9. 2014 December-February 2... March-May... June-August... September-November... 7.70 7. 8.00 8.30 8.50 8.70 8.50 8. 9.10 8. 9.20 9.70 9.60 9. 1 Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2 December preceding year. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 5
Quarterly Litter Rate United s Number head 10.35 10.15 9. 9. 9.55 9.35 9.15 8. 8. 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: June-August 2014 Number head 10.50 10.16 9.10 9.00 8.70 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.50 7.00 All 1- -4 500-9 1,000-1,9 2,000-4,9 5,000+ 6 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Quarterly Sows Farrowed United s Million head 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 Quarterly Pig Crop United s Million head 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 7
Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 145 4 1,020 570 340 3 870 160 500 1,010 550 355 400 870 5 4, 3,2 19,0 1,630 0 7,0 2,410 2,610 7,830 520 3,0 3,0 18,4 1,460 8 6,0 1,9 2,600 6,0 91 83 89 720 4,600 3,550 20, 1,0 1,060 7,650 2,0 3,000 8,700 6 4,250 3, 19,500 1,630 1,000 7,500 2, 3,000 7,0 91 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 410 1 1,5 1,8 1,040 5 605 660 1,830 1,520 1,015 1,020 635 81 71 2, 2,2 1,140 1,150 710 740 2,000 1,0 1, 1,1 530 710 Other s 1... 426 416 2,586 2,528 3,012 2,4 United s... 5,836 5,1 59,236 55,643 65,072 61,4 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-119 pounds 120-179 pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,2 0 4,0 460 2 2,370 1,050 860 3,000 1,070 8 4,570 3 2 2,4 0 820 2,630 1,220 0 5,0 360 215 2,060 535 740 1,8 1, 8 5,7 345 1 2,000 3 730 1,650 810 660 4,0 300 225 1,600 415 5 1,620 810 620 4,0 2 225 1,4 320 545 1,540 7 6 3,3 510 220 1,050 410 1,330 770 6 3,2 450 0 370 505 1, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 650 7 235 325 2 5 5 250 330 2 560 340 340 150 120 555 335 345 2 460 260 225 150 465 225 1 210 265 4 240 1 1 230 3 230 Other s 1... 8 1 5 582 554 523 540 521 United s... 18,2 17,336 16,251 15,487 13,169 12,538 10,5 10,281 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 8 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 145 500 1,030 5 400 870 160 4 1,000 570 3 3 860 109 565 4,150 3,230 18,0 1,6 8 7,220 2,300 2,650 8,030 530 3,810 3,230 18, 1,470 8 7,0 2,070 2,610 6,740 87 84 710 4,650 3,500 20,000 1,860 1,000 7,0 2,650 3,050 8,0 6 4,300 3,500 19, 1,640 0 7,650 2,450 3,000 7,600 88 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 160 410 1 1 1,0 1,830 1,020 0 520 655 1,815 1,460 1,010 1,035 570 645 108 2, 2,240 1,120 1,140 620 730 1,0 1,8 1, 1,210 670 720 84 106 108 Other s 1... 434 410 2,654 2,673 3,088 3,083 United s... 5,884 5,5 59,304 55,728 65,188 61,583 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-119 pounds 120-179 pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,330 1,010 4,8 4 2 2,540 1,030 0 3,060 2 1, 8 4,7 410 2,5 5 820 2,6 1,330 0 6,0 3 220 2,300 4 760 2,020 1,1 0 5,740 360 210 2,150 435 7 1,650 740 630 4,700 260 1 1,410 3 610 1,600 70 770 5 4,470 260 1,2 315 510 1,230 115 0 600 3,2 565 210 0 400 1, 660 7 3, 440 1,060 345 4 1, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 625 0 250 335 2 530 610 265 335 5 345 5 360 2 145 4 210 205 1 440 1 1 205 140 115 2 470 220 1 265 310 205 220 155 Other s 1... 9 9 618 631 514 526 528 556 United s... 19,135 17,9 17,078 16,071 12,414 11,491 10,678 10,166 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 9
Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 145 500 1,000 550 400 8 155 510 2 1,030 550 3 3 870 107 111 555 4, 3, 19,0 1,650 0 7,150 2,650 2,650 8,420 545 4,040 3, 19,670 1,650 0 7, 2,410 2,660 7,530 91 89 700 4,600 3,700 20,0 1,820 1,050 7,700 3,000 3,050 9,300 700 4,550 3,550 20,700 1,820 1,010 7,650 2,0 3,050 8,400 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 420 1 118 1,5 1,7 1,040 0 505 660 1,8 1,5 1,040 1,0 650 625 89 129 2,0 2,210 1,140 1,150 5 740 2,060 2,020 1,140 1,250 0 700 91 109 127 Other s 1... 421 415 2,745 2,7 3,166 3,211 United s... 5,816 5,0 61,0 59,441 66,6 65,361 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-119 pounds 120-179 pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,330 1,0 5,300 4 2 2,450 1,1 0 3,140 2 1,220 0 5,2 465 2,540 1,1 860 3,010 1,2 1,040 6,4 360 230 2,2 650 810 2,240 115 1,2 1,000 6,500 510 235 2,1 510 830 1,820 70 700 640 4,830 1 1,450 3 570 1,670 830 620 4,500 315 1 1,370 505 1,500 7 670 3,2 535 225 0 420 1,370 60 710 6 3,3 360 1,000 360 465 1, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 620 7 245 355 2 550 700 255 360 1 2 610 345 355 2 115 600 3 370 305 1 1 220 1 450 220 215 140 265 4 220 155 155 120 2 2 210 Other s 1... 1,009 1,082 638 683 559 547 540 483 United s... 19,824 19,517 17,8 17,658 12,584 12,147 10,725 10,118 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 10 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... 2012 2013 Breeding Market Total 2013 as of 2012 2012 2013 2013 as of 2012 2012 2013 2013 as of 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 145 4 2 1,030 560 3 860 150 500 2 0 550 345 3 870 5 4, 3,520 19,570 1,730 0 7,0 2,400 2,620 8,040 540 4,050 3,370 19,230 1,5 0 7,250 2,405 2,660 7,630 91 720 4,600 3,0 20,600 1,0 1,0 7,650 2,0 3,000 8,0 6 4,550 3,650 20, 1,0 1,060 7,0 2,0 3,050 8,500 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 420 420 1,8 1,8 1,040 1,025 715 660 2,030 1,560 0 1,035 510 625 108 83 71 2,050 2,300 1,140 1,1 0 740 2, 1,0 1,0 1, 5 700 107 86 74 Other s 1... 429 412 2,565 2,613 2,9 3,025 United s... 5,819 5,7 60,405 59,018 66,224 64,7 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-119 pounds 120-179 pounds 1 pounds and over 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 1,2 1,040 5,120 500 300 2, 1,045 870 3,020 260 1,250 1,010 4,840 420 305 2,650 1,150 830 2,600 1, 1,010 6,030 410 210 2,150 560 720 1,0 1,210 0 5,0 345 210 1,0 450 0 1,0 0 710 4,0 2 230 1, 370 550 1,615 730 650 4,0 310 1,3 325 560 1,630 135 870 760 3,670 530 240 1,0 425 4 1,445 860 810 3,600 505 235 1,230 4 520 1,600 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 645 0 250 1 2 640 560 265 355 265 555 355 2 155 600 3 310 2 115 415 240 205 1 150 440 265 1 1 120 4 230 205 230 355 215 215 1 Other s 1... 914 8 582 610 519 526 551 577 United s... 19,2 18,389 16,2 16,0 12,614 12,576 11,741 11,2 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 11
Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February 2013-2015 [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 2015 2 2015 as of 2014 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 70 245 135 465 79 53 2 1 440 71 245 120 4 49 2 1 435 79 250 140 4 83 47 2 445 111 117 111 9.60 9.55 10.35 9. 10.25 10.55 10.35 10.50 8. 9.20 9. 9.15 9.20 10.50 9.10 10.55 8.40 672 2,4 1,289 4,813 774 543 2,1 1,863 1,733 4,1 625 2,450 1, 4,2 732 451 2,888 1,638 1,741 3,654 86 83 88 87 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 86 1 44 86 37 43 1 44 82 41 40 187 47 87 50 39 107 106 122 10.60 8.60 9. 8.00 9.15 10.65 8.60 869 1,887 453 912 318 426 720 1,647 458 873 353 400 83 87 111 Other s 3... 188 191 9. 9. 1,1 1,0 United s... 2,788 2,765 2,870 10.08 1 Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 9.53 28,0 26,336 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 69 250 465 79 50 2 1 160 460 72 250 470 82 52 2 1 440 9. 10.50 9. 10.70 10.50 10. 10.05 9.30 9. 9.25 10.60 9.25 8. 10.60 8. 10.50 8.70 656 2,5 1,231 4,883 786 510 3, 1,8 1,720 4,623 670 2,4 1,156 4,2 9 463 3,021 1,647 1,733 3,828 91 87 83 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 1 44 88 38 41 1 48 88 42 41 109 111 10. 8. 9.60 10.70 9.40 10.50 824 1,6 449 9 338 422 760 1,776 4 2 3 431 117 Other s 2... 202 187 10.11 9.76 2,046 1,829 89 United s... 2,6 2,7 1 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 10.31 9.78 28,1 27,361 12 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 70 250 4 81 50 2 1 470 72 255 140 510 84 50 2 1 460 112 10.60 10.05 10. 10. 9.45 9. 10.70 9. 10. 9. 10. 665 2,550 1,263 5,141 814 505 3,132 2,028 1,7 4,747 6 2,601 1,372 5,457 832 505 3,038 1,911 1,3 4,370 109 106 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 1 48 86 42 43 1 48 88 42 41 10. 8.30 9.70 10.65 9. 6 1,7 4 7 349 0 1,8 4 7 416 426 91 119 Other s 2... 210 1 10.14 9. 2,128 1,914 United s... 2,8 2,7 1 Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 10.33 10.16 29,862 29,539 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November 2012-2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 2012 2 2012 2013 2012 2013 2013 as of 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 68 245 140 505 53 2 1 450 72 235 455 49 2 1 445 70 255 140 500 83 47 2 1 450 109 108 111 106 9. 9. 9. 10.35 10.50 9.40 10.05 10.60 9.25 10.15 10. 10. 677 2,450 1,3 5,202 784 541 3,068 1,915 1,7 4,545 677 2,3 1,307 4,823 740 4 3,132 1,4 1,774 4,228 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah... 91 1 50 41 41 1 47 82 38 40 84 1 48 87 47 39 106 124 10.15 8.60 9. 10. 8.55 910 1,878 505 6 353 426 884 1,841 484 882 325 404 Other s 3... 1 202 1 9. 9. 1,1 2,004 United s... 2,888 2,7 2,8 10.15 1 Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold. 10.16 29,319 28,253 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 13
Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 2013 and 2014 [December preceding year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Month December... January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September... October... November... Sows farrowing 1 Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 6 1 2 1 4 2 8 9 3 3 7 910 2 5 918 8 919 0 2 4 1 10.01 10.07 10.15 10.24 10.38 10.31 10.38 10.28 10.17 10.04 9.60 9.47 9.51 9.58 9.78 9. 10.08 9,265 9,376 9,458 9,744 9,510 9,668 9,9 9,881 10,002 9,6 9,423 9,136 8,5 8,4 8,727 9,084 8,1 9,286 9,7 9,835 9,7 Total... 11,265 1 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. 10.22 115,135 Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 7,0 United s producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September 2014, data were collected from about 6, operations, of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1, 2014. Estimating Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. 14 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.2. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 65.4 million head by more than 1.2. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1. Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates [Based on data for the previous twenty quarters] Item All hogs and pigs... Root mean square error confidence level Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest Below latest Years Above latest () () (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (number) (number) 1.2 2.1 649 1,459 9 11 Pig crop... 2.0 3.5 450 10 1,1 9 11 Expected farrowings Next quarter... 2.6 4.4 57 0 167 8 12 Following quarter... 2.8 4.8 65 7 1 8 12 Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) 6-2424 Travis Averill Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds Hogs and Pigs... (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) 6-3236 Tiffany Hora Livestock Slaughter... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) 720-3278 Evan Schulz Sheep and Goats... (202) 720-6147 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 15
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