E-Mobility: Recent developments and outlook into the future Lisbon, 03 October, 2018 Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D - 45219 Essen Phone: +49 2054 9392 930 Fax: +49 2054 9392 931 info@latendorf.biz www.latendorf.biz
Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 2
Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 3
The EV market grows exponentially and volume capability (in production but also sales) becomes a key aspect for the OEM The incumbent manufacturers need to rethink and adapt their business model due to: Changed customer behaviour, Different service requirements Shift from a product-driven to a customer-centric approach due to: Faster product and service replacement rates Higher expectations for service and response times Sources: EV-Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 4
Huge differences between the countries and the three leading models are pure BEVs. Sources: EV-Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 5
Exponential growth is expected in the next years and the incumbent OEMs have got ambitious plans. 10 8 6 4 2 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 New EV registrations (Millions) (PHEV + BEV) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 New E-Model Variations per year and segment F E D C B A 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production Forecasts Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Volkswagen Tesla Geely Daimler General Motors Toyota Honda Hyundai BAIC BMW Ford PSA SAIC BYD Great Wall GAMC JAC Rest 0 400 000 800 000 1 200 000 2023 2020 2017 Sources: EV-Volumes, IHS, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and own research 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 6
Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 7
Executive Research: Priorities are shifting towards new mobility Scope Current Priorities Past Priorities New propulsion E-Mobility Fuel Cell Charging Landscape Efficiency Downsizing Diesel Rationalisation Digitisation Connectivity Digital Services Data Management Past motivations Horsepower Acceleration Top Speed Digitisation and E-Mobility dominate opinions Source: KPMG Research 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 8
A market study we conducted in Europe shows that customers OEMs are not matching expectations on many fronts and also want complete mobile solutions Strategy Customer Operations Customers require more details about the e- mobility strategy. The communication focuses on technical aspects and lacks passion. Discuss and find mobility solutions, not only cars. Sales people need to learn a different language and skill portfolio. Sales people lack own e- mobility experience. Customers want to get involved earlier in the product development. No central sales, but decentral and instant service solutions. Organisation People Leadership A separate EV organisational setup in sales is key to develop a market such as DE or UK. New minds and a new HR development process to allow a cultural change. Current incentive systems do not help the development of e-mobility. There is a general lack of competence in understanding customer mobility requirements. Old style management has proven successful but hinders a fast decision making process. Speed beats perfection in a disruptive environment. 71 interviews in total in 7 countries. All people were asked to comment on 6 key areas. 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 9
Increasing regulations and decreasing CO 2 Targets add to the trend and force OEMs to advance Quellen: The Guardian, European Comission, Daily Express, electrive 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 10
Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 11
Charging and Discharging Charging Discharging 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 12
Each fuel has got ist own specific attributes LCO LMO NMC NCA LFP LTO Advantage s High energy densitiy Simple Cheap Ressources available Capacity Voltage Energy density Variants (333, 532, 622, 811) Capacity and voltage Performance Slow electrolyte reaction Safety Resources Fast charging Life span Vary safe Stable Fast charging Life span Disavanta ges Expensive Heat resistance Life span Capacity Life span Material costs Resource scarcity Material costs Resource scarcity Safety procedures Capacity Voltage Energy density Very expensive Low specific energy density Example Phones, Tablets, Notebooks, Cameras Disappearing E-bikes, Cars Industry Medical devices Cars (Tesla) Busses Trucks Forklifts Street lights Busses Trucks 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 13
NMC share increasing, while LMO disappears, LFP used in busses (due to recharging cycles) Sources: EV Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 14
Outlook into the future predicts a strong NMC growth with a tendency towards higher Ni-Shares in Cathodes 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 LMO LFP Unknown NCA NMC 0 GWh 2017 GWh 2020 GWh 2023 Sources: IHS, BNEF, Own Research (passenger cars only) 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 15
Overview of the material input per kwh of battery capacity Sources: BNEF 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 16
The increased need in battery capacity suggests a significant increased need of Co, Ni and Li Sources: Avicenne Energy 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 17
Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 18
Yesterday: Electric Cars 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 19
Tomorrow: Electrified Cities? 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development 2018 20
EV demand and supply will increase and therefore the need for Li+ batteries and their raw materials. Questions? Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D - 45219 Essen Phone: +49 2054 9392 930 Fax: +49 2054 9392 931 info@latendorf.biz www.latendorf.biz
Thank you! Kind Regards, André Latendorf Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D - 45219 Essen Phone: +49 2054 9392 930 Fax: +49 2054 9392 931 info@latendorf.biz www.latendorf.biz