The Role of Nuclear Power Chris Larsen Vice President, Nuclear Power June 23, 2009
Our Mission To conduct research on key issues facing the electricity sector on behalf of its members, energy stakeholders, and society. 2
U.S. Nuclear Plant Performance Capacity Factor: 90%+ Production Costs: < 2 / kwh Continued Performance Key to Future Deployment and Operation Source: NEI 3
Insights from Recent EPRI Work The technical potential exists for the U.S. electricity sector to significantly reduce its CO 2 emissions over the next several decades. No one technology will be a silver bullet a portfolio of technologies will be needed. Much of the needed technology isn t available yet substantial R&D, demonstration is required. A low-cost, low-carbon portfolio of electricity technologies can significantly reduce the costs of climate policy. 4
U.S. Electricity Sector CO 2 Emissions 3500 3000 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 Base case from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 includes some efficiency, new renewables, new nuclear assumes no CO 2 capture or storage due to high costs 500 Using EPRI deployment assumptions, calculate change in CO 2 relative to EIA base case 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 5
Technology Deployment Targets 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Base Case EPRI Analysis Target* Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 None None 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 Widely Available and Deployed After 2020 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter Distributed Energy Resources (DER) (including distributed solar) < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 EPRI analysis targets do not reflect economic considerations, or potential regulatory and siting constraints. 6
Benefit of Achieving Efficiency Target 3500 3000 9% reduction in base load by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 7
Benefit of Achieving Renewables Target 3500 3000 50 GWe new renewables by 2020; +2 GWe/yr thereafter U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter 0 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 8
Benefit of Achieving Nuclear Generation Target 3500 3000 24 GWe new nuclear by 2020; +4 GWe/yr thereafter EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 9
Benefit of Achieving Advanced Coal Target 3500 3000 46% efficiency by 2020, 49% efficiency by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 10
Benefit of Achieving CCS Target 3500 3000 After 2020, all new coal plants capture and store 90% of their CO 2 emissions U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 11
Benefit of Achieving PHEV and DER Targets 3500 3000 5% shift to DER from base load in 2030 PHEV sales = 10% by 2017; 30% by 2027 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 EIA Base Case 2007 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 12
Electric Sector CO 2 Reduction Potential 3500 3000 * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2007 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 150 GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 13
Updated EPRI Prism for 2008 3500 3000 Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. AEO2007*(Ref) AEO2008* (Early Release) AEO2008*(Ref) U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr Renewables 55 GWe by 2030 100 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 15 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Heat Rate Improvement for Existing Plants 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 1-3% Heat Rate Improvement for 130 GWe Existing Plants 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 Impact of efficiency measures in Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA2007) 500 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 *Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 14
2008 Prism...Technical Potential for CO 2 Reductions U.S. Electric Sector 3500 Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. 3000 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.05%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr Renewables 55 GWe by 2030 100 GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation 15 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Heat Rate Improvement for Existing Plants 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020 2030 1-3% Heat Rate Improvement for 130 GWe Existing Plants 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020 PHEV None 10% of New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2017; 33% by 2030 DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 *Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 15
Key Technology Challenges Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment Advanced Coal Plants with CO 2 Capture and Storage 16
Existing and New Nuclear Generation 17
Forward Looking View in the U.S. Current Fleet Initial 40-year licenses begins to expire 60 year licenses in place. First decisions to extend to 80-year life. 60-year licenses begin to expire. Many extensions to 80 years completed/in process. Technology Milestones 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Deployment Targets Initial deployment of ALWRs in U.S. ~24 GWe new ALWRs ~10 GWe New Fleet ~64 GWe new ALWRs 2008 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
Extending Existing Plant Life Opportunity for Economic, Low Carbon Baseload Generation Source: DOE Life Beyond 60 Workshop February 2008 19
Nuclear Long Term Operations.60 + Years Understand the following issues to support long-term plant life: Aging Degradation of Metals Concrete Aging Cooling Water Technology Cable Aging Buried Pipe Aging Risk-informed Safety Margins Digital I&C Modernization Source: A Strategy for Nuclear Energy Research and Development, EPRI Publication 1018154, January 2009 20
New Nuclear Plants under Consideration 10 GW by 2020; 64 GW by 2030 Alternate Energy Holdings 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Fermi, DTE 1-ESBWR (1,550 MW) Nine Mile Point, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Bell Bend/PPL, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Blue Castle, TP Unspecified Technology Callaway, AEE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) North Anna, D 1-Unspecified Technology Calvert Cliffs, UNE 1-USEPR (1,600 MW) Amarillo, UNE 2-USEPR (3,200 MW) Comanche Peak, LUM/TXU 2-USAPWR (3,400 MW) Bellefonte, NS/TVA 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Lee Station, DUK 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Grand Gulf, NS/ETR 1-Unspecified Technology Alvin W. Vogtle, SO 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Harris, PGN 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Summer, SCG 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Source: NRC Expected New Nuclear Power Plant Applications (Feb 4 2009) South Texas Project, NINA/NRG 2-ABWR (2,700 MW) Victoria, EXE 2-ABWR (2,700 MW) River Bend, ETR 1-Unspecified Technology Levy County, PGN 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) Turkey Point, FPL 2-AP1000 (2,200 MW) 21
Comparative Costs of New Generation Options: 2015-2020 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 140 130 120 110 100 Note: Central Station Solar = 175 $/MWh Coal with CCS (2020) NGCC ($8-10/MMBtu) 90 80 70 60 50 0 Wind (32.5% CF) Coal without CCS Nuclear Average 2007 U.S. wholesale electricity price = 66 $/MWh Rev. October 2008 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton All costs are in 2007 $ 22
U.S. Electricity Generation: 2000 to 2050 ( bookend scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO 2 constraint*) (economic allocation) (economic allocation) Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear Demand Reduction Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Coal Coal with CCS * Economy-wide CO 2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr 23
Learning Curve Opportunity Korean Example 100% 94% Construction Cost (% of First of a Kind) 82% 80% Construction Duration (Months) 64 60 58 56 63% 53 63% 47 1995 1998 2002 2004 ~ 2010 ~ 2011 Repetitive Construction of Standardized Plants 24
Impact of Construction Delays $/MWh (Const. 2007 $) 140 120 100 80 60 40 3-Year Start-Up Delay ($4,785/kW) LCOE $73/MWh LCOE $88/MWh Base Case ($3,980/kW) 20 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Year 25
Key Takeaways Both existing and new nuclear plants needed to meet baseload electricity demand and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Nuclear generation is likely to be a cost-competitive electricity generation option in a low-carbon future. Life extension of existing plants to 80 or more years plausible, but requires technical confirmation. 4-8 new U.S. nuclear plants likely to begin operation in 2017-2020, supported by loan guarantees and production tax credits. Nuclear construction learning curve opportunity for plants beginning operation after 2020 26
Image from NASA Visible Earth 27
Capital Requirements Different Methods of Quoting $/kw 7000 6000 Escalation 5000 AFUDC (Allowance for Funds Used During Construction) - Short-Term Project Financing 4000 Owners Cost 3000 Contingency 2000 Engineering and Construction Management 1000 General Facilities and Site Specific Costs 0 EPRI Technical Assessment Guide (Constant $) EPRI Technical Assessment Guide (Current $) Utility Site Specific Project (Current $) Process Capital Cost (Equipment and Construction Labor) Source: EPRI Report 1018329, Section 1.8.3 28