Reducing GHG Emissions from Cars and Light Trucks John German American Honda Motor Co. NAMVECC November 3, 2003
GHG from Vehicles GHG emissions a function of fuel burned Gasoline & diesel fuel are about 86% carbon 1 gallon of gasoline 19.5 pounds of CO2 1 gallon of diesel 21.8 pounds of CO2 (+12%) Can t convert it, can t trap it 25 mpg vehicle, 15k mi/yr 6 tons of CO2/yr Only options are: Drive less Use fuel with less carbon Improve vehicle efficiency
3 Issues for the Future Automobile: Energy Supply & Demand Sustainability Climate Change Urban Air Quality
Transportation s Social Issues Social Concerns Key Issues Air Pollution Energy Sustainability Climate Change 1990 2000 2010 2020
Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient Gasoline Vehicles Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the market Popular mass-market models with continual efficiency improvement Highest CAFE of major OEMs
Credibility is Built Step-by-step 1st Clean Air Act w/out Catalyst - (1975) 1st 50mpg Car - (1985) 1st Gasoline LEV (1995) 1st Gasoline ULEV (1997) 1st Adv. Battery EV to Consumers (1997) Cleanest Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) in the world (Civic GX, 1998 ) 1st Voluntary LEVs nationwide (1998) 1st Hybrid in the U.S. (1999) 1st Gasoline SULEV (2000) 1st Common-Platform Hybrid - Civic (2002)
Wide FE Technology Application 2003 Model Year Data from the 2003 FE Trends Report, US EPA 35 Civic MPG (adjusted combined) 30 25 20 15 RSX Accord 3.2TL CR-V MD-X Odyssey 10 small cars midsize cars large cars small SUV midsize SUV large SUV midsize van large van *Odyssey is larger and heavier than average mid-size van: 4500 ETW versus 4345
CR-V Full Model Change - 2002 CR-V Attributes/Model 2001 2002 ETW (lbs) AT 2WD Range (MT, 4WD) 3375 3375-3500 3500 3500-3625 Interior volume: + 9% Length 178 179 Width 69 70 Height 66 66 Passenger vol 98 106 Cargo vol 30 33 Towing capacity 1000 1500 Engine size (L) 2.0 2.4 Horsepower@rpm 146@6200 160@6000 Torque (ft-lb)@rpm 133@4500 162@3600 Compression ratio 9.6:1 9.6:1 FE 1 : AT 2WD 22/25 23/28 AT 4WD 22/25 22/26 MT 2WD --- --- MT 4WD 22/25 21/25 Weight: +4% Displacement: +20% Horsepower: +10% Torque: +22% Towing capacity: +50% Fuel Economy: + 3-4%
Incremental FE Technology Engine technology High specific output (including 4 valve/cylinder) Variable valve timing/lift Direct injection Precise air/fuel metering Transmission efficiency 5 speed-at/6-speed MT CVT Dual-clutch automated MT Reduced losses Lightweight materials Low drag coefficient Low resistance tires Lower accessory losses Cost and value issue These technologies are continuously being incorporated into vehicles. However, consumers value other attributes more highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and luxury. Putting in technologies just to improve fuel economy may not be valued by customers. Fuel Economy Improvement -??? Depends on how much is already incorporated into fleet and synergies (or lack of synergy) between technologies
Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy Increases Tradeoff with other attributes Declining fuel cost Consumers versus society
CAFE History MPG 30 25 20 15 Historical combined car and light truck CAFE car car + light truck light truck 60% 50% 40% 30% 10 5 0 Since 1987: Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8 mpg LDT market share increased from 28% to 48% Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg 1975 1977 light truck market share 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20% 10% 0%
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars 35 30 Car Data from EPA s 2003 FE Trends Report MPG 3500 40 weight 38 3000 36 1981 wts, accel, & % manual 25 MPG 2500 34 32 1981 wts & accel % manual 30 20 15 10 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 0-60 time 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2000 1500 1000 Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety 28 26 24 22 20 actual data 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Light Truck Data from EPA s 2003 FE Trends Report % manual weight MPG 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 MPG 1981 wts, accel, & % manual 1981 wts & accel 15 10 5 0-60 time 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1500 1000 500 Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9% per year since 1987 However, this has all been used to increase other attributes more highly valued by the customer, such as performance, comfort, utility, and safety 22 21 20 1981 1983 actual data 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Real Gasoline Price Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average, adjusted using CPI-U Real Gasoline Prices (2002 $ per gallon) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Reprinted with permission from SAE T-119 2003 SAE International
Fleet Fuel Economy Real Gasoline Prices and In-Use Fleet MPG (2002 $ per gallon) $3.00 30 $2.50 25 $2.00 Real Gasoline Price Cars 20 $1.50 $1.00 Cars + Light Trucks 15 10 MPG $0.50 5 $0.00 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 In-Use MPG from Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 21, Sept 2001 Reprinted with permission from SAE T-119 2003 SAE International 0
Gasoline Cost per Mile Real Gasoline Cost for Cars - Cents per Mile (2002 $ per gallon) $0.18 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Reprinted with permission from SAE T-119 2003 SAE International
Real Fuel Cost - % of Disposable Income Real Fuel Cost of Driving a Passenger Car 10,000 Miles % of Per Capita Disposable Income Percent of Per Capita Disposable Income 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1, Personal Income and It's Disposition Reprinted with permission from SAE T-119 2003 SAE International
Willingness to Pay for FE J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study March 6, 2002 Press Release Consumer interest in hybrid vehicles increases as gasoline prices rise 30% of buyers would definitely consider - another 30% indicate a strong consideration Of these, 1/3 would buy even if fuel cost savings during their ownership period would be less than the extra cost of the hybrid option 2/3 would not pay more than fuel savings during ownership period
Customer Value of Fuel Savings Fuel Cost Savings for the first 50,000 miles FE Increase +20% +40% +80% Fuel Cost $1.50/gal $4.00/gal $1.50/gal $4.00/gal $1.50/gal $4.00/gal Small car 34 mpg 34 mpg base $368 $980 $630 base 23 Midsize car 23 mpg base base 14 Large truck 14 mpg base $543 $893 $1449 $2381 $932 $1531 $1681 $2484 $4082 $980 $1449 $2381 $2614 $3865 $6349 J.D.Power survey on hybrids found that Consumers indicate a willingness to pay more $1,000 to $1,500 for a hybrid powertrain
Hybrids - Who is the buyer? Customer Profile Early Adopter Innovator Early Majority Majority
Technology Conclusions Technology is available to improve fuel economy Challenge is customer s low value of fuel economy Real cost of driving very low Other attributes (performance, utility, comfort, safety) valued more highly Most customers only consider fuel savings during their period of ownership Hybrid technology is being widely promoted and is progressing rapidly J.D. Power predicts over 20 hybrid vehicle models and sales of about 350,000 per year in 2008 (Oct 2003) Cost is the key issue to be solved in order to sell to the mainstream mass market
Benefits of Cooperation Government Push: Performance improvement targets (voluntary commitment) Pull: Manufacturer incentives (?) Industry Pull: Incentives Push: (non-monetary, Taxation, monetary), education Restrictions, (green labels, etc.) Limitations Pull: Viable products (FE, price, performance, utility, etc) Consumers
What Can States Do? DO send good market signals Offer incentives for alt fuels and high FE Monetary, HOV access, parking privileges, etc. Tie vehicle and registration fees to efficiency Reduce yearly insurance premiums Reduce sales, property, and income taxes Call Paul Portney, RFF, 202-328-5103
What Can States Do? Educate the public Most people do not know that fuel use = GHG DON T regulate vehicle efficiency Billions needed to redesign just a single vehicle Can t do this state by state