Covering First Quarter 2014 Volume 14, Number 2 Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Up 6.7% in First Quarter of 2014 Registrations predicted to approach 150,000 units for entire year Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. San Diego County new retail light vehicle registrations increased 6.7% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, above the estimated 1.6% improvement in the Nation. (Note: March figures were estimated). 2. Auto Outlook s annual forecast for 2014 new retail light vehicle registrations: 147,500 units, up 5.7% from 2013. 3. Light truck market share increased from 38.2% in the First Quarter of 2013 to 40.7% this year. 4. Registrations for Japanese brands were up 9.6% so far this year, above the 6.7% overall industry increase. 5. The new vehicle market has come a long way from the depths of the recession. Registrations in the First Quarter of this year were an estimated 33,952 units, up more than 14,000 compared to the First Quarter of 2010. 6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric) market share was 9% thru February of this year, up slightly from last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the county are Sub Compact Car, Standard Mid Size Car, and Compact SUV. New light vehicle registrations 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Annual Trend in County Market 102,624 77,707 99,255 87,621 126,570 139,593 147,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2008 thru 2013, and Auto Outlook s projection for all of 2014. Historical data source: Polk. 8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first three months of this year: Ram, Jeep, Jaguar, Lexus, and Mitsubishi. Top five in market share were Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Chevrolet. 9. The county unemployment rate has declined from a high of 11% in January of 2010 to 7% in February of this year. 10. Top five selling cars in county market: Toyota Prius, Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. Top five light trucks: Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape. General Market Outlook for next two years: Sales likely to move higher; but market is approaching it s cyclical peak Gradually improving economic conditions, the easing of the household debt burden, and most significantly, pent up demand have provided the boost to new vehicle sales during the past four years. Although sales are likely to increase during the next year or two, the pace of the recovery is almost certain to ease. Market Summary YTD '13 YTD '14 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar thru Mar* '13 to '14 YTD '14* TOTAL 31,807 33,952 6.7% Car 19,644 20,123 2.4% 59.3% Light Truck 12,163 13,829 13.7% 40.7% Detroit Three 8,160 8,661 6.1% 25.5% European 4,992 5,246 5.1% 15.5% Japanese 15,994 17,525 9.6% 51.6% Korean 2,661 2,520-5.3% 7.4% Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.
Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS County Market Increased 6.7% in 1st Quarter 2014 vs. 1.6% in U.S. QUARTERLY TREND QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Percent Change in New Vehicle Market County and U.S. Five Years of First Quarter Results in County Market 14.0% 12.0% 40000 35000 The market was up by more than 14,000 units in the First Quarter of 2014 vs. 2010. % change versus year earlier 1 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% The county market increased at a faster pace in the First Quarter of 2014. County U.S. New retail light vehicle registrations 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2.0% 5000 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14* County 12.1% 12.3% 6.6% 6.7% U.S. 9.0% 13.3% 4.9% 1.6% 0 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Q1 '14* Regs. 19512 24388 28856 31807 33952 First Quarter registrations during past five years * Figures for First Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February. Data * Figures for First Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February. Data Covering First Quarter 2014 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County, and must also include the statement: Data Unforeseen events affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of.
Covering First Quarter 2014 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE Japanese Brands Gain Change in County Market Share YTD 2014 thru March* vs. YTD 2013 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Green Vehicle Share Slips Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Japanese Japanese brand share increased 1.3 points. 1.3 12.0% 1 Trendline European -0.2 8.0% Detroit Three Korean -1.0-0.2-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Change in market share The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS Sub Compact Car Segment Leads County Market Segment Market Share YTD 13 thru February 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Alternative powertrain market share has trended higher over the past three years, but declined slightly in the First Quarter of this year. Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14* The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the county. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *First Quarter 2014 includes January and February. San Diego County Segment Market Share Review Market Share YTD 14 thru February Change in share YTD 13 to 14 Best selling model in segment Sub Compact Car 25.3 24.0-1.3 Toyota Prius Standard Mid Size Car 16.1 15.0-1.1 Toyota Camry Compact SUV 10.9 12.9 2.0 Toyota RAV4 Full Size Pickup 5.5 5.9 0.4 Ford F Series Near Luxury Car 5.8 5.9 0.1 BMW 3-Series Entry Car 6.0 5.2-0.8 Kia Soul Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 5.8 5.0-0.8 Toyota Highlander Luxury and Sports Cars 4.2 4.2 0.0 BMW 5-Series Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 3.4 4.2 0.8 Subaru Forester Mid Size Luxury SUV 3.6 3.8 0.2 Lexus RX Compact Pickup 3.0 2.8-0.2 Toyota Tacoma Mini Van 2.4 2.4 0.0 Honda Odyssey Compact Luxury SUV 2.2 2.2 0.0 Audi Q5 Sport Compact Car 1.6 1.8 0.2 Ford Mustang Entry Luxury Car 0.9 1.4 0.5 Mercedes CLA-Class Large Mid Size Car 1.2 1.1-0.1 Toyota Avalon Full Size SUV 0.9 0.9 0.0 Ford Flex Full Size Van 0.8 0.8 0.0 Ford Transit Connect Van Full Size Luxury SUV 0.4 0.4 0.0 Land Rover Range Rover The table above shows San Diego county market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first two months of 2013 and 2014, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2014 share. Most popular segment in the county is Sub Compact Car. Compact SUV had the largest gain. Data
Page 4 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Ram and Jeep Post Large Percentage Gains Jaguar, Lexus, and Mitsubishi are also up sharply The graphs below provide a comparative evaluation of brand sales performance in the county market. They show the year-to-date percent change in registrations for each brand, organized by category (i.e., Domestic, European, Japanese, and Korean). Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations YTD 2014 thru March* vs. YTD 2013 Ram 68.3% Jeep 60.7% Lincoln 21.6% Chevrolet Ford -0.4% 4.4% Domestic Brands GMC -1.0% Buick -2.8% Dodge -4.6% Cadillac -6.9% Tesla -25.9% Jaguar 54.2% FIAT 27.0% Mercedes Porsche 13.7% 12.8% European Brands Land Rover 5.8% Audi 3.8% BMW Volkswagen -0.7% 1.2% Ram and Jeep had the biggest increases. Lexus had the largest increase among Japanese brands. Volvo -11.4% MINI -13.1% Lexus 35.1% Mitsubishi 33.3% Subaru 25.8% Mazda Acura Nissan Toyota 18.9% 13.8% 10.7% 7.1% Japanese Brands Honda 0.7% Infiniti Kia Hyundai -6.7% -3.4% -3.9% Korean Brands -4-2 2 4 6 8 *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.
Covering First Quarter 2014 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Toyota is Non-Luxury Car Brand Leader; Ford #2 for Trucks BMW is best selling luxury car and light truck brand The four graphs below show market share leaders in San Diego County during the past six months for four primary segments. (Note: figures for March, 2014 were estimated.) Toyota/Scion was the best-selling Non Luxury Car brand, with a sizeable 9.4 point lead over second place Honda. Toyota was also the top ranked Non Luxury Light Truck brand, ahead of Ford and Honda. BMW was the best-selling Luxury Car brand, while Lexus was second. Data Top 10 Non Luxury Car Brands in County Market October 2013 thru March 2014 Top 10 Non Luxury Light Truck Brands in County October 2013 thru March 2014 Toyota 24.1 Toyota 23.1 Honda 14.7 Ford 18.0 Ford 11.1 Honda 11.2 Nissan 11.0 Jeep 9.7 Volkswagen 8.0 Nissan 8.1 Hyundai 6.8 Chevrolet 6.4 Chevrolet 5.9 Subaru 4.6 Kia 5.6 GMC 3.2 Mazda 3.8 Mazda 3.2 Subaru 3.1 Ram 3.1 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Share of non luxury car market (%) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Share of non luxury truck market (%) Top 10 Luxury Car Brands in County Market October 2013 thru March 2014 Top 10 Luxury Light Truck Brands in County Market October 2013 thru March 2014 BMW 23.0 BMW 21.1 Lexus 22.2 Mercedes 18.9 Mercedes 20.4 Acura 15.7 Audi 8.2 Land Rover 11.9 Infiniti 5.2 Audi 10.8 Acura 4.2 Infiniti 6.6 Cadillac 4.0 Cadillac 5.7 Porsche 2.8 Volvo 3.7 Tesla 2.3 Porsche 3.4 Lincoln 2.1 Lincoln 2.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Share of luxury car market (%) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Share of luxury truck market (%)
Page 6 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE Toyota Has Big Market Share Lead in County Market Toyota s share of county market exceeds U.S. by 6.8 points The graph below provides a comparison of San Diego County and U.S. new retail market share during the first three months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the county. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on county market share. Toyota was the county leader, accounting for 19.9% of the market, well above its 19.9% share in the Nation. County and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2014 thru March* Toyota 13.1% 19.9% Ford Honda 10.6% 9.7% 11.4% 13.1% Nissan 8.8% 7.9% Chevrolet 4.7% 10.3% Volkswagen Kia Lexus Hyundai BMW 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 4.3% 3.6% Jeep Subaru 3.5% 4.4% 2.9% 3.5% Toyota, Volkswagen, Lexus, and BMW county market shares are well above U.S. levels. County U.S. Mazda 2.9% 2.0% Mercedes 2.7% 2.1% Dodge Audi Acura Ram Infiniti GMC 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 5.0% 1 15.0% 2 25.0% Market Share *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated.
Covering First Quarter 2014 Page 7 MODEL SCOREBOARD Rogue and Highlander Post Big Market Share Gains Prius and Corolla lead the car sales chart The two graphs below show market shares in the county car and light truck markets during the first two months of 2013 and 2014. Includes the top ten selling car and light truck models. Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Cars - YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013 7.0% 6.0% 2013 YTD 2014 YTD Altima, Jetta, and Fusion market shares were up. 5.0% Market Share 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Toyota Prius Toyota Corolla Honda Civic Toyota Camry Honda Accord Nissan Altima Ford Focus Volkswagen Ford Fusion Nissan Sentra Jetta Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Light Trucks - YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Market shares for Rogue, Highlander, and RAV4 improved. 2013 YTD 2014 YTD Market Share 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Toyota Tacoma Ford F Series Toyota RAV4 Honda CR-V Ford Escape Nissan Rogue Toyota Highlander Honda Odyssey Ram Chevrolet Silverado
Page 8 Brand Registrations Report San Diego County New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations First Quarter* Annual Totals Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 % change 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 Change 2012 2013 % change 2012 2013 Change TOTAL 31,807 33,952 6.7 126,570 139,593 10.3 Cars 19,644 20,123 2.4 61.8 59.3-2.5 78,922 85,630 8.5 62.4 61.3-1.1 Light Trucks 12,163 13,829 13.7 38.2 40.7 2.5 47,648 53,963 13.3 37.6 38.7 1.1 Domestic Brands 8,160 8,661 6.1 25.7 25.5-0.2 29,798 35,180 18.1 23.5 25.2 1.7 European Brands 4,992 5,246 5.1 15.7 15.5-0.2 21,636 22,842 5.6 17.1 16.4-0.7 Japanese Brands 15,994 17,525 9.6 50.3 51.6 1.3 62,888 70,683 12.4 49.7 50.6 0.9 Korean Brands 2,661 2,520-5.3 8.4 7.4-1.0 12,248 10,888-11.1 9.7 7.8-1.9 Acura 399 454 13.8 1.3 1.3 0.0 1,581 1,863 17.8 1.2 1.3 0.1 Audi 470 488 3.8 1.5 1.4-0.1 2,015 2,106 4.5 1.6 1.5-0.1 BMW 1,201 1,216 1.2 3.8 3.6-0.2 4,551 5,426 19.2 3.6 3.9 0.3 Buick 142 138-2.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 560 597 6.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 Cadillac 274 255-6.9 0.9 0.8-0.1 825 1,090 32.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 Chevrolet 1,539 1,606 4.4 4.8 4.7-0.1 6,414 6,973 8.7 5.1 5.0-0.1 Chrysler 149 54-63.8 0.5 0.2-0.3 756 609-19.4 0.6 0.4-0.2 Dodge 587 560-4.6 1.8 1.6-0.2 1,661 2,373 42.9 1.3 1.7 0.4 FIAT 230 292 27.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 1,041 1,050 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0 Ford 3,892 3,878-0.4 12.2 11.4-0.8 13,579 15,944 17.4 10.7 11.4 0.7 GMC 303 300-1.0 1.0 0.9-0.1 1,178 1,419 20.5 0.9 1.0 0.1 Honda 3,576 3,602 0.7 11.2 10.6-0.6 14,070 15,930 13.2 11.1 11.4 0.3 Hyundai 1,334 1,244-6.7 4.2 3.7-0.5 6,444 5,457-15.3 5.1 3.9-1.2 Infiniti 325 314-3.4 1.0 0.9-0.1 1,408 1,407-0.1 1.1 1.0-0.1 Jaguar 48 74 54.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 170 226 32.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 Jeep 738 1,186 60.7 2.3 3.5 1.2 3,391 3,777 11.4 2.7 2.7 0.0 Kia 1,327 1,275-3.9 4.2 3.8-0.4 5,804 5,431-6.4 4.6 3.9-0.7 Land Rover 240 254 5.8 0.8 0.7-0.1 662 851 28.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 Lexus 924 1,248 35.1 2.9 3.7 0.8 4,222 4,888 15.8 3.3 3.5 0.2 Lincoln 125 152 21.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 462 532 15.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 Mazda 827 983 18.9 2.6 2.9 0.3 3,122 3,962 26.9 2.5 2.8 0.3 Mercedes 820 932 13.7 2.6 2.7 0.1 3,861 4,190 8.5 3.1 3.0-0.1 MINI 259 225-13.1 0.8 0.7-0.1 1,247 1,146-8.1 1.0 0.8-0.2 Mitsubishi 117 156 33.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 526 483-8.2 0.4 0.3-0.1 Nissan 2,701 2,990 10.7 8.5 8.8 0.3 9,820 11,195 14.0 7.8 8.0 0.2 Other 96 147 53.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 445 447 0.4 0.4 0.3-0.1 Porsche 148 167 12.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 586 720 22.9 0.5 0.5 0.0 Ram 240 404 68.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 878 1,171 33.4 0.7 0.8 0.1 Subaru 796 1,001 25.8 2.5 2.9 0.4 2,247 3,610 60.7 1.8 2.6 0.8 Tesla 158 117-25.9 0.5 0.3-0.2 86 653 659.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 Toyota 6,324 6,770 7.1 19.9 19.9 0.0 25,876 27,339 5.7 20.4 19.6-0.8 Volkswagen 1,340 1,330-0.7 4.2 3.9-0.3 6,367 6,030-5.3 5.0 4.3-0.7 Volvo 158 140-11.4 0.5 0.4-0.1 715 698-2.4 0.6 0.5-0.1 *March 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390, Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com is distributed free of charge to members of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County. The publication is sponsored and supported by the Association. San Diego Auto Outlook is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market analysis firm. Opinions expressed are solely those of Auto Outlook, Inc., and are not necessarily shared by the Association. Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., April, 2014
Covering First Quarter 2014 Page 9 USED VEHICLE MARKET REPORT County Used Vehicle Market Declines Slightly in Early 2014 Used vehicle registrations fell 2.6% thru February of this year Below is a list of key trends in the San Diego County retail used vehicle market: Retail used registrations in the county declined 2.6% during the first two months of 2014 versus a year earlier. As shown on the graph below, the county new vehicle market has continued to post larger percentage gains than the used market. New vehicle registrations increased significantly from year-earlier levels between 2010 and 2013, while used registrations either declined, or increased slightly The sharp decline in new vehicle sales for 2009 has led to short supplies of five year old vehicles, leading to the 45.8% drop in five year old vehicle registrations. Used light truck registrations fell 3.9%, while cars were off 1.7%. Nissan Altima was the best-selling model in the county among 2 year old or newer vehicles. BMW 3-Series was the leader for 3 to 4 year old models. Among the top 15 selling brands, Lexus, Nissan, Honda, Chrysler, and BMW were the only brands to have an increase in used registrations so far this year. 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle Registrations YTD thru February Registrations % Change Market Share YTD '13 YTD '14 '13 TO '14 YTD '13 YTD '14 TOTAL 52,235 50,890-2.6% Cars 31,306 30,779-1.7% 59.9% 60.5% Light Trucks 20,929 20,111-3.9% 40.1% 39.5% Detroit Three 19,871 18,595-6.4% 38.0% 36.5% European 8,057 8,019-0.5% 15.4% 15.8% Japanese 22,236 22,349 0.5% 42.6% 43.9% Korean 2,071 1,927-7.0% 4.0% 3.8% Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations by Vehicle Age, YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013-11.1% -22.9% -45.8% 35.4% 17.3% 5.7% 7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or newer -3% Percent Change in San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 '08 to '09 '09 to '10 '10 to '11 '11 to '12 '12 to '13 YTD '13 to YTD '14 New -24.3% 12.8% 13.3% 27.5% 10.3% 6.7% Used 14.7% -5.0% 0.8% 2.8% -7.4% -2.6% YTD used registrations are thru February. YTD new registrations are thru March. (March was estimated.)
Page 10 TOP SELLING MODELS Altima is Best Seller in 2 Year Old or Newer Market BMW 3-Series is the 3 to 4 year old leader The graphs below show top selling models in two age categories: vehicles two years old or newer, and three and four year old vehicles. Top 20 Selling Models (Two years old or newer) Used retail registrations, YTD 14 thru February Nissan Altima Toyota Corolla Honda Civic Nissan Versa Toyota Camry Ford Focus Volkswagen Jetta Nissan Sentra Ford Fusion Mercedes-Benz C-Class BMW 3-Series Toyota Prius Nissan Rogue Ford F Series Mazda 3 Ford Escape Dodge Caravan Kia Optima Chevrolet Malibu Honda Accord 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Top 20 Selling Models (3 and 4 years old) Used retail registrations, YTD 14 thru February BMW 3-Series Toyota Prius Toyota Camry Honda Civic Toyota Corolla Volkswagen Jetta Honda Accord Nissan Altima Ford F Series Honda CR-V Lexus RX Ford Fusion Mazda 3 Hyundai Sonata Toyota RAV4 Mercedes-Benz E-Class Infiniti G Ford Edge Mercedes-Benz C-Class Toyota Scion 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 USED VEHICLE BRAND SCOREBOARD Used Lexus Registrations Increase 6.2% Registrations for four other brands move higher The graph below shows the percent change in used registrations for the top 15 selling makes during the first 2 months of this year vs. year earlier. Percent Change in Used Registrations (top 15 brands in county) - YTD 14 thru February vs. YTD 13 1 6.2% 5.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.2% -5.0% -0.6% -1.7% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -1-6.5% -6.9% -8.4% -9.1% -15.0% -12.3% -2