TransLink: A multi-modal, integrated transport and operations system Jeffrey Busby A/Director, Infrastructure Program Management TransLink Urban Sustainability Accelerator
Is the Grass Greener? Transportation Planning and Policy in Metro Vancouver Jeffrey Busby A/Dir Infrastructure Program Mgmt TransLink September 19, 2016
A shared vision (1975)
Mayors Council Vision (2014)
50% of Trips by Walking, Cycling, Transit 1.6 M trips 27 % 50 % 4.4 M trips 4.4 M trips 73 % 50 % 4.4 M trips Today In 30 years
2011 Distance and 2045 Driven Target Reduced Mode By 33% Share 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 VKT per Capita 10.8% 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Benefits of headline targets
Most Important Local Issues
TransLink: The TransLink Transportation Authority for the Metro Vancouver Region South Coast BC Transportation Authority Public Transport Bridges Cycling Intelligent Transportation Systems Transportation Demand Management Major Road Network
TransLink: The Transportation Authority for the Major Metro Road Vancouver Network Region
TransLink: The Transportation Authority for Frequent the Metro Transit Vancouver Network Region
Approves changes to fares, taxes, and strategic plans Approves budgets, policies and directs management Plans, finances, markets and communicates Delivers services
Sources and uses of funds
Fuel Levy Forecast
Revenues 17 cents per liter fuel tax ( 49 cents per gallon USD) $324M annual revenue (24%)
A brief history of Metro Vancouver fuel sales Litres of gasoline & diesel sold (millions) 240 220 200 180 160 Refund adjustments from carbon tax $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 Revenue at current tax rates (millions) 140 $10 120 85% gasoline 15% diesel $5 100 $0
What s driving fuel sales? Direct Factors Fuel Sales f Vehicle Ownership (+) Fuel Efficiency (-) VKT/Vehicle (+) Sales Leakage (-) Indirect Factors Demographics Cost of Living Transit Service Prices for Transportation Modes US/Canada Exchange Rate Income Other Factors
Research by F. King and J. Fox Revenue and Policy Implications from Emerging Fuel Sale Trends in Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada Transportation Research Record, No 2530, 2015
Average vehicle in Metro Vancouver isn t as fuel efficient as we thought 2001 2013-4% +3% -5% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 40% 68% 56% 2001 2013 other light trucks cars
Hybrid vehicle market penetration is still relatively low Registered Vehicles 2% 0% 6% All Hybrids Gasoline Diesel Other 92%
So what? Fuel efficiency was not a major factor contributing to the 2009-2013 drop in fuel tax revenue Fuel Sales f Vehicle Ownership (+) Fuel Efficiency (-) VKT/Vehicle (+) Sales Leakage (-)
Total VKT from vehicles registered in Metro Vancouver stopped growing for 2008-2013 4,500 Model results (quarterly) Moving average (annual) 4,000 Total VKT (millions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2001 transit strike 1,500 1,000 500 Vehicle Total VKT = Ownership (+) * VKT/Vehicle (+) - Q2 2000 Q2 2001 Q2 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013
VKT per vehicle and per capita 4,000 3,500 VKT per Vehicle 8.5% VKT from Gas Vehicles 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 VKT per Capita 10.8% 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total 10-year Change in VKT (2003 to 2013) Change in average VKT per capita Change in average VKT per vehicle 0% Burnaby & New Westminster Langleys North Shore Northeast Pitt Meadows & Maple Ridge Richmond & South Delta South of Fraser Vancouver -2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -3% -4% -4% -4% -4% -6% -5% -4% -3% -4% -10% -9% -9% -12% -11% -14% -16% -15% -14%
Decoupling of road usage & fuel sales Total VKT per Quarter (Billions km) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Total VKT Retail gasoline sales volumes 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Gasoline sales (Billions L) 1.5 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.0 Total VKT Retail gasoline sale volumes
A Canadian tradition We should get gas...e
The North Shore 40 min to Squamish 60 min to USA
Total VKT + fuel efficiency explains fuel sales in North Shore, but not in other sub-regions 1.2 North Shore South of Fraser, Langleys, Pitt Meadow, and Maple Ridge 1 Index (2014-Q4=1) 0.8 0.6 0.4 VKT model predicted gasoline sales VKT model predicted gasoline sales 0.2 Actual retail gasoline sales (MJ Ervin) Actual retail gasoline sales (MJ Ervin) 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Canadian vehicle crossings into Washington State doubled 2010 to 2014 CAD/USD exchange rate 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 CAD/USD exchange rate CDN vehicles returning from Washington 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Number of Canadian vehicles returning from Wash State per Month 0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 0
Strong negative correlation between total fuel sales and border crossings 60% Metro Vancouver fuel sales (MA) Percent change relative to December 1990 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% CDN vehicles returning from Wash. (MA) -100% Dec-90 Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15
Conclusions for fuel sales Vehicle fuel efficiency gains have been small because of a switch from cars to light trucks Fuel sales and road usage (VKT) have decoupled Unable to explain fuel sales trends without considering the USD/CAD exchange rate and border crossings into the USA
Results of regression analysis Variable Description Effect on VKT per vehicle Gas Price Real price of gas in previous quarter +10% -0.12% Transit Service Square root of transit service hours Double service -8.7% Median Income Real median income for region +10% +2% Vehicle Age Change in vehicle age +10% -2.4% Proximity to CBD Distance of owner to central business district (m) +10% 0.11% Proximity to regional town centre Auto Accessibility Distance of owner to regional town centre +10% 0.04% Auto access score for each TAZ (generated by EMME) +10% -0.16% Transit Accessibility Transit access score for each TAZ (generated by EMME) +10% -0.28% Jobs-Housing Balance Jobs to population ratio in each TAZ +0.1-0.01% Constant Vancouver subregion constant 6,310 km
Pattullo Bridge Replacement Project
Regional Context Pitt River, 2009 Queensborough & Alex Fraser, 1986 Pattullo, 1937 Port Mann, 2012 Golden Ears, 2009 Massey, 2022
Recent and Proposed Projects
Pattullo Bridge
Project Need Seismic Vulnerability Scour Deck Condition Ship Impact
Project Need Sidewalk Road Geometry
Replacement Design Challenges Downtown Surrey Proximity to existing structures Downtown New Westminster Fraser River: habitat & archaeology
Strategic Review 2011-14
Regional Context No Charge No Charge $3 Toll Proposed Toll $3 Toll Proposed Toll
Tolling Strategic Review
Options Analysis 3 Crossings
Multiple Account Analysis Shortlisted Options
6 Shortlisted Options All Tolled Traffic Volumes on the 6 shortlisted tolled options Average daily volume today is 80,000 vehicles.
4-Lane & 6-Lane Options Trade-Offs Two options best meet project objectives: New 4-lane bridge in the existing corridor New 6-lane bridge in the existing corridor Trade-offs in bridge capacity: Support for mode share and VKT goals Support for economic development Support for travel time reliability Cost effectiveness
Mayors Council Vision (2014)
Adaptable Bridge Concept
Pattullo Replacement Reference Concept 4-Lane Adaptable Bridge
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