Future of Mobility and Role of E-mobility for Future Sustainable Transport Petr Dolejší Director Mobility and Sustainable Transport
ACEA MEMBERS
3 KEY FIGURES ABOUT THE INDUSTRY 12.1 million direct and indirect jobs 41.5 billion in R&D spending, largest private investor 95.1 billion positive net trade contribution 396 billion in tax revenues (EU14)
Content 1. Trends & Challenges 2. How industry is responding 3. E-mobility and future sustainable transport
Sustainability Challenges People: Demographics change Expected to reach 9 billion by 2050 Aging population in developed markets vs younger population in emerging markets Urbanisation Planet: Environmental challenges Climate change Air quality Scarcity of resources Profit: Economic sustainability Globalisation Increasing divide in income between citizens Digitalisation introduces new industry players
People: Demographic changes Different age groupsdifferent demands Young buyers less interested in car ownership & older drivers drive less Place different demands on vehicles: Connectivity-automationsafety features Urbanisation Potentially positive and negative effects for auto industry Will impact on type and number of vehicles demanded
Planet: Environmental Challenges Climate change UN aims to limit total warming to 2.0 C compared to pre-industrial levels The world car fleet is increasing in line with population and GDP growth Potentially 100 million vehicles sales per year before 2020 Air quality WHO: Air pollution is a major environmental risk to health causing 3.7 million premature deaths worldwide in 2012 Air quality is affecting quality of life in cities. For instance: Smog in Beijing Bans on circulation of traffic in Paris
Profit: Economic Sustainability Globalisation Opportunity to expand outside home markets Reducing barriers to trade could reap significant benefits TTIP: Current regulatory NTBs are equivalent to a tariff of 26% Anticipating consumer demand In Europe, consumer demand has fluctuated In emerging world, demand is soaring China now largest market in world with 22m units sold in 2013, up from 5.7m in 2005 Income divide between and within countries Need to adapt to different consumer income levels Source: IHS
2. Industry s response Keeping the world mobile The industry is working, with other stakeholders to make vehicles smarter, cleaner and more connected Connected vehicles linked to other vehicles and to infrastructure could make vehicles safer and transportation more intelligent and efficient Smart, clean, automated vehicles Intelligent Transport System (ITS) Safer, more efficient mobility
2. Industry s response Keeping the world clean Passenger car CO2 emissions targets Industry has responded with significant investment and work to reduce the environmental impact of all motor vehicles Significant gains in both passenger car and commercial vehicle sectors Often despite conflicting demands Fuel Consumption [l/tkm%] - - - - 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Commercial vehicle fuel-economy improvement based on tkm [%] 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2014 since 1965-60%
2. Industry s response Keeping the European auto industry economically sustainable FTAs and growing trade opening up new markets Access to wider markets enables manufacturers to spread the costs of innovation and roll-out technologies Units 20000000 18000000 16000000 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 World passenger car production - international comparison / 2001-2013 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EU China Japan South Korea India USA Brazil Russia New business models offering mobility solutions E.g. OEM car sharing schemes Quicar (VW), Car2Go (Daimler), DriveNow (BMW)
2. Industry s response: examples Advanced propulsion Hybridisation, Electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Technologies: regenerative braking, stop/start, engine load-levelling New mobility models Car sharing schemes (Car2Go, QuiCar, Cambio, Autolib) Connectivity Automation (Daimler, Google) In vehicle services and apps (Apple CarPlay) Integrated and connected traffic management (ITS)
3. Future sustainable transport global view Future transportation will need different modes and technologies e-mobility represents a part of the sustainable transport E-mobility covers full range of electrically chargeable vehicles PHEV (plug-in hybrid vehicles), EREV (extended-range electric vehicles) and BEVs (battery electric vehicles) for passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles Consumer acceptance is crucial for success (costs/price issue, change of behaviour, infrastructure needed ) Higher and quicker uptake requires joint effort by all stakeholders (consumers, OEMs, suppliers, public authorities, energy sector, infrastructure providers etc.)
IHS possible scenarios (2014) 31 M 28 % By 2040 the PEV market share will be close to 30% globally 19 M 11 M 15 % Around 15% global market share for PEV in 2040 10 % Close to 10% global market share for PEV vehicles by 2040
Market share expectations IHS recent quotes: policy, societal and technology improvements will lead to greater electrification, especially in urban areas in China, Europe and US despite falling short of initial expectations, global sales of plug-in vehicles are progressing at a much faster pace than hybrid cars did during the same stage of their deployment PEV vehicles are expected to experience a boost in the 2020-2025 timeframe due to regionally tightening CO 2 standards. An even greater boost in PEV sales is expect post 2030 as new improved battery chemistry becomes commercialized ACEA expectations for ECVs: 2-8% of total new sales by end of this decade
16 NEW PASSENGER CARS IN THE EU BY FUEL TYPE Alternative fuel vehicles represent a small but growing share of the EU car market
17 SHARE OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES IN THE TOTAL PASSENGER CAR FLEET Alternative fuel cars represent 5.5% of the EU fleet
Key factors for successful e-mobility Coordinated actions in different policy areas (infrastructure, taxation, technology development ) Further technological progress (R&D) Market driven uptake of low emission technologies sustainability must be ensured Relevant infrastructure and standards Ensured access to raw materials Investment in human capital
Broader market uptake integrated approach Defining a supportive long-term policy Building up a recharging infrastructure Coordinating sectoral strategies Increasing consumer awareness, information Financial sustainability Progress on standardisation
Broader market uptake infrastructure and energy sector Investment needed from the energy providers and infrastructure operators Dense and quality infrastructure positively affects consumers do not forget on different technologies with different recharging needs. Need to ensure critical mass of EVs at first stage and clean energy sources Primarily function of vehicles are for transportation, not for energy management - question of involvement of a car to the smart energy management is premature. Second-life batteries can play the expected role; Increase of energy consumption is marginal, critical is renewable energy production
Broader market uptake lessons learned Still the chicken and egg problem exists investment in infrastructure is not sufficient (public policy intervention is needed, not a great business opportunity for the moment) Sales in the EU heavily dependent on financial support is that sustainable? Consumer acceptance is a long-run joint effort Standard consumer choice is based on total costs of ownership (cheap petrol disqualifies ECVs regulatory measures are considered to narrow the gap) Conflicting interests from different industries New business models can stimulate market uptake (incl. fleet users)
Conclusions The automotive industry is part of the solution Industry is delivering products on the market Success depends on coordinated collaboration of all key players Standardisation and infrastructure is one of the key elements Automobile industry needs others to follow
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