Trends in Emissions from Energy Sector Title of the Presentation Date: September 28, 2017 Venue: New Delhi Date Venue
Sectoral Break-up & Approach Fuel Combustion National GHG Inventory Fugitive Emissions from fuels Key Sub-sectors in ENERGY Electricity Generation Transport Other sectors Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production Electricity Generation Utilities Non-Utilities Transport Road Rail Other Sectors Residential Commercial Solid Fuels Oil and Natural Gas Tier 1: Default (Fuel based) Quantity of fuel Global Average emission factors Emissions from combustion Tier 2: Country Specific (Fuel Based) Quantity of fuel Country specific emission factors Emissions from combustion Aviation Agriculture and Fishing GHGs accounted for: Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Navigation
Methodology The basic equation used in for calculating the GHG emission is: Emissions Gas = Category Activity data (AD) * Emission Factor (EF) Gas For example CO 2 emissions are estimated as: CO 2 Emissions = Fuel consumption * Net Calorific Value * CO 2 emission factor Activity data sourced from various Ministry reports Emission Factors are default factors from IPCC guidelines and country-specific estimates. Other data sets include: Fuel calorific values and liquid and gaseous fuels, density assumptions
MtCO 2 e Trends in Energy Emissions 1800 1600 1533 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 964 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Electricity Generation Transport Others Fugitive CAGR ENERGY: 5.96% Electricity Gen: 6.58% Transport: 6.96% Others: 2.18% Fugitive Emissions: 1.05%
Fuel Use 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Sector wise emissions based on fuel type Solid Fuels Electricity Generation 95.61% Transport 0.001% Others 23.98% Fuel Production 53.42% Liquid Fuels Electricity Generation 1.14% Transport 90.39% Others 44.21% Fuel Production 0.79% Gaseous Fuels Electricity Generation 3.25% Transport 9.60% Others 31.80% Fuel Production 45.79%
MtCO 2 e Electricity Generation 1200 1000 800 CAGR Electricity Gen: 6.58% PEG: 6.2% Captive: 9.1% 600 400 200 Sub sector States 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Public Electricity Generation Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra West Bengal Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Tamil Nadu Odisha Rajasthan Karnataka Haryana Rest of India Captive Power Plants Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh 12 states contributed to 90% of the emissions from PEG in 2013
MtCO 2 e Transport 250 200 150 CAGR Transport: 6.96% Road: 9.23% Railways: 4.63% Aviation: 7.46% Navigation: 1.24% 100 50 Sub sector States 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Gujarat Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Haryana Road Railways Aviation Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu Delhi Kerala Rest of India Navigation Maharashtra, Kerala, Gujarat Modal Share in 2013: Road (87%), Railways (4%), Aviation (8%) and Navigation (1%)
MtCO 2 e Residential, Commercial, Fisheries & Agriculture 160 140 120 100 80 60 CAGR Other: 2.18% Residential: 1% Commercial: 9% Agriculture:8% Fisheries:5% 40 20 Sub sector Residential States West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu Agriculture Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Bihar Madhya Pradesh Punjab Haryana Kerala Rest of india Fisheries Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu Share in 2013: Residential (73%), Commercial (6%), Agriculture (18%) and Fisheries (3%)
MtCO 2 e Fugitive Emissions from Fuel Production 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Chhattisgarh Jharkhand Odisha Madhya Pradesh Rest of India CAGR Fugitive Emissions: 1.05% Coal: 0.53% Oil: 2.63% Natural Gas: 2.64% Sub sector Coal Oil Natural Gas States Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Jharkhand Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Assam
Comparison with Official Inventory Emissions (MtCO 2 e) Electricity Generation INCCA 2007 CSTEP 2007 % Deviation BUR 2010 CSTEP 2010 % Deviation 719 758 5% 820 913 11% Transport 142 138-3% 188 190 1% Others 173 131-24% 92 138 50% Fugitive 32 36 13% 49 47-4% TOTAL 1066 1063-0.28% 1149 1288 12% Deviations - Fiscal Year to Calendar Year - Data Gaps in Activity data - Inclusion of DG sets - Inclusion of Captive Power Generation - Rounding off Error - Lack of disaggregated data based on coal mining
Assumptions Electricity Generation Data for the Financial Year (FY) 2011-12 interpolated Heat rates in captive plants taken to be 5% higher than utilities for each fuel type Fuel properties for HHS not available, properties for LSHS used Transport Petrol & Diesel demand from PPAC Average zone share for HSDO consumption in road for select states Linear Interpolation for missing years Others Linear interpolation applied to calculate the number of Diesel Generator (DG) sets and fuel consumed in DG sets DG sets of capacities <75 kw in residential sector DG sets of capacities between 75 to 800 kw in commercial sector Fugitive Emissions Degree of Gassiness in UG Mines (Deg I, II and III at 33.33%) Proxy variable s Performance applied to relevant variables Leakage rate assumed as 1.65% of NG production
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