How Will Higher Petrol Prices Impact Market Segmentation and Competitive Strategies in the U.S. Market? Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director, North America
Market Overview Not a Bad Start to the Year April SAAR of 16.6 million, in line with expectations but less than last year s 17.2 million units. Fleet activity has been trending down since January, incentive spending is moving up General Motors sticking to Value Pricing Strategy First quarter sales rate a healthy 16.9 million units. Overall volume in first quarter up 1.3% y/y, with cars + 2.1% and light trucks +0.7% Mid and full size SUV s lost share relative to the first quarter of last year GM sales down 5.2% on the year, Ford -1.4%, Chrysler +2.8% Inventory remains in balance Sales forecast just under 16.7 million versus 16.9 million in 2005 NA production pegged at 15.71 versus 15.75 last year 2
U.S. Sales By Type 1999-2011 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 (Units in Thousands) '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 CAR - L LCV - L Total LV Sales - R 18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 3
Big Three Market Share U.S. Sales Big 3 Are Not That Big Anymore 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% Thanks to Great Product Design and Less Legacy Costs, Chrysler is Not Facing the Same Issues as Ford and GM 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GM FORD CHRYSLER 4
Asian Name Plates Market Share U.S. Sales Make Room For the Second Big 3 16% Toyota Adds More Capacity With the SIA Agreement But Honda is Still Constrained Pending Further Announcements 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN CHRYSLER 5
Asian Name Plates Market Share U.S. Sales 3.5% Hyundai and Kia Get Big Boosts From New Plants. The Smaller OEMs Are Squeezed From the Top and Must Fight for Market Share 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 HYUNDAI KIA MAZDA MITSUBISHI SUBARU SUZUKI 6
European Name Plates Market Share U.S. Sales This Reflects Continued Strong Imports From BMW and Mercedes. VW Gets a Short-lived Boost With Several New Products in 2008 and a New Jetta in 2011. Audi Gains With the Q7 and Q5. Plus, it is an Intriguing Brand to Gen Y 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 BMW MINI MERCEDES PORSCHE AUDI VW 7
Outlook Summary Employee price deals make shift to value pricing difficult Pricing on new models not aggressive enough High oil prices and pricing hurt sales this year and next Union and bankruptcy issues add turmoil to the automotive business environment GM and Ford continue to lose market share, keeping the pressure on pricing Longer term demographics and consumer tastes shape the market Dynamic and exciting products are a plus for sales 8
High Petrol Prices and the Impact on Market Segments and Competitive Strategies in the U.S. Market 9
The B-Segment Buzz By MY2009, most major OEMs will be offering at least one subcompact, or B-size car in the U.S. market This is initially surprising given the historically poor sales performance of these vehicles in the U.S. In the past, consumers have shunned B-sized cars because: Consumers don t really care that much about fuel economy B-size cars are perceived as too small in a sea of pickups and SUVs Similarly priced used cars offer more value and prestige But today, OEMs believe that demand for B-size cars will increase significantly due to: Rising fuel prices The emergence of Generation Y 10
The Fuel Price Effect Many suggest that rising fuel prices will spur demand for B-size cars But, historically, consumers have demonstrated that even with high fuel prices, few people are willing to drive B-size cars If gasoline were to stabilize at $3.00 per gallon, many consumers will shift downward in powertrain size, but likely not all the way down to B size models 11
Gasoline Retail Price All Grades Per Gallon 320 (Cents) 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 2004 2005 2006 Source: DOE Weeks updated 5/1/2006 12
Demographic Shifts - Baby Boomers Drive Current Market, Gen X and Y Key to the Future Assuming people enter the market at age 16 and leave by age 80: Depression Generation: 1915-1934: 55 million people First ones enter the driving population in 1931, last ones exit in 2014 Quiet Generation: 1935-1945: 30 million people First ones enter the driving population in 1951, last ones exit in 2025 Baby Boomers: 1946-1964: 76 million people First ones enter the driving population in 1962, last ones exit in 2044 Generation X: 1965-1977: 45 million people First ones enter the driving population in 1981, last ones exit in 2057 Generation Y: 1978-1994: 75 million people First ones enter the driving population in 1994, last ones exit in 2074 13
The Gen Y Effect Historically the auto industry has made the assumption that young entry level buyers want small cars Usually, this assumption is far from true With Generation Y, the industry needs to be particularly careful Generation Y is an in your face, look at me group that aspires to Hummers, Escalades, and Navigators And some B-size cars lack the attitude demanded by Generation Y Cute B-sized cars that may have been successful in other markets have no guarantee of success here in the U.S. But, some of the upcoming B-Cars have real attitude and could very well connect with Generation Y 14
Growth in Driving Age Population - Ages 16 to 85 3.0 Baby Boomers Started Coming Into the Market in 1962, Adding Well Over 2.5 Million Drivers Per Year Millions Gen Y Started Coming Into the Market in 1994, Adding Nearly the Same 2.5 Million Drivers Per Year 1.20 2.5 1.00 2.0 0.80 1.5 0.60 1.0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 0.40 Year - to- Year Change Veh Per Driver 15
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Subcompact Cars B Segment 0.6 Units/MM Percent 3.0% 0.5 2.5% 0.4 2.0% 0.3 1.5% 0.2 1.0% 0.1 0.5% 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.0% Volume - L Share - R 16
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Compact Cars 2.2 Units/MM Percent 13.0% 2.1 12.5% 2.0 12.0% 1.9 11.5% 1.8 11.0% 1.7 10.5% 1.6 10.0% 1.5 9.5% 1.4 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9.0% Volume - L Share - R 17
The Expanded Truck: Why Are We Not Buying Cars? 18
Definitions of Utility Vehicles Offered in the U.S. Recognizing the wide variety of sport utility type vehicles on the market, Global Insight has divided the utility market into three primary segments: Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) Crossover Utility Vehicles (CUVs) Sport Touring Wagons (STWs) 19
SUV What Is It? An SUV is a Sport Utility Vehicle Generally built using body on frame truck platforms Heavy duty construction yields high curb weights Most have low-gear ratios for off road performance Ride is firm and rugged Rear-wheel-drive with 4x4 as an option SUVs tend to have high towing capacity 20
Why Are SUV s Popular? SUVs are a nearly perfect fit with Baby Boomer me first values: Command seating position Go anywhere, do anything capability Get out of my way look in your rear view mirror Bigger than you for safety Because of this perfect fit, SUV sales will be more robust than some are forecasting, although they will decline Generation X uses full size SUVs as family haulers: They purchase more SUVs per capita than any other group They provide an alternative to embarrassing minivans 21
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Sport Utility Vehicles (SUV s) 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 Units/MM Percent 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Between 2000 11, SUV sales decline 23% as consumers shift to other vehicle concepts Consumers will be hardpressed to give up the utility, driving position, and road presence to move back to sedans But, passenger space, towing capacity and 4x4 does support volume 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ENTRY SUV MID SUV FULLSIZE SUV PREMIUM SUV SUV SHARE 0% The CUV and STW segments are likely to be the largest benefactors 22
CUV What Is It? A CUV is a Crossover Utility Vehicle To most consumers, CUVs and SUVs are the same thing But, CUVs are built from car, rather than light truck platforms CUVs trade off-road ruggedness for improved fuel economy, ride, handling and ergonomics CUVs are more truck-like in image than STWs 23
Why Are CUVs Popular? Well-executed CUVs provide consumers with many of the benefits of an SUV, but minus the disadvantages: Better fuel economy Better chassis dynamics Better ergonomics The most successful CUVs are indistinguishable visually from SUVs: Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Honda Pilot Even Baby Boomers will make the switch to well executed CUVs, thinking they are continuing to buy an SUV 24
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Crossover Utility Vehicles (CUV) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Units/MM Percent 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ENTRY CUV MID CUV LARGE CUV ENTRY PREMIUM CUV MID PREMIUM CUV LARGE PREMIUM CUV CUV SHARE Between 2000 11, CUV sales are expected to bloom from less than 440,000 units to nearly 2.85 million units Successful CUVs provide a near perfect combination of expressive, muscular design and AWD without the stiff ride and poor gas mileage of SUVs New models and demographics drive the growth 25
STW What Is It? The sport touring wagon (STW) is the modern interpretation of the classic station wagon But, STWs differ from station wagons in several ways: Sportier image Higher roofline for command seating position Shorter rear overhang Available AWD (in most cases) STWs are more car-like than CUVs 26
Why Are STWs Popular? STWs are the classic station wagon brought up to date STWs provide the comfort, dynamics, and economy of cars, with some of the functionality and style of a CUV Ultimately, the STW could become the mommy mobile of Generation Y: Generation Y will not want the minivans their parents used when they were kids Properly executed, the STW can provide Generation Y with a kid hauler tailored to their unique values Entry STWs like the Dodge Caliber appear poised to substitute for compact sedans for other generations as well Consumers used to the versatility of SUVs and minivans will appreciate the enhanced usability of an STW vs. a small coupe or sedan 27
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Sport Touring Wagons (STW s) Units/MM Percent 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ENTRY STW MID STW PREMIUM STW STW SHARE 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Between 2000 11, sport touring wagons grow from under 90,000 units to nearly 800,000 units While the growth is impressive, it still is fairly limited for a truck sector It s still a bit questionable whether this body style appeals to consumers Is it aggressive enough? Is the seating position high enough? Is it sexy? 28
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Pickup Trucks 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Units/MM Percent Entry pickups are losing 20.0% market share as models grow in size 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ENTRY PICKUP FULLSIZE PICKUP MID PICKUP PICKUP SHARE 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% Only Ford Ranger and Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon remain in entry Midsize pickups grew dramatically when the Toyota Tacoma and Nissan Frontier moved up last year and the Honda Ridgeline debuted Fullsize pickups continue to dominate the market and are a preferred vehicle for Gen Y males 29
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Mid Vans (MPV) 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Units/MM Percent Minivans are purely 9.0% practical, unemotional 8.0% purchases 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MINIVANS MPV SHARE 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Consumers usually buy them because their lifestyle demands it kids, pets, grandkids It is not an aspirational concept Consumers leave the MPV segment as soon as possible There is minimal demand for a premium MPV wealthy people view SUV s as kid haulers 30
That Thing Got a Hemi? or a CVT? or a Hybrid? Chrysler Group s Hemi engine has revitalized the Dodge brand, even with today s high gas prices - Thanks to displacement on demand, the 8 cylinders drop off to 4 cylinders for highway driving, resulting in pretty terrific MPG With Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT), a V6 engine gets very competitive fuel mileage as well Dodge Magnum R/T w/awd Hemi 5.7 24 MPG $32,345 liter/345 cu. in. 340 HP@5000 rpm Nissan Murano SE w/awd V6 3.5 24 MPG $31,700 liter/214 cu. in. 245 HP@5800 rpm Toyota Highlander Hybrid w/awd V6 3.3 liter/201 cu. in. 268 HP@5600 rpm 27 MPG $39,290 31
How Are GM and Ford Coping With the SUV Decline? GM and Ford are both dependant upon the full size SUV and pickup platforms for profit GM s newly launched GMT900 SUV lineup averages 20 MPG versus 18 MPG on the previous versions (GMT800) In addition, GM and Ford are both introducing large CUVs GM s Lambda CUVs and Ford s D3-based Fairlane Saturn Outlook has a 118.9 wheelbase and a 78 overall width, which is similar to the 2007 Chevy Tahoe (116 wheelbase, 79 overall width) While the dimensions are still undetermined, the Ford Fairlane is likely to be similar in size to the Saturn Outlook 32
Summary Consumers are entrenched in buying trucks whether CUV s, SUV s, STW s or pickups over cars Smaller cars (like B size) are lost amongst the fullsize SUVs and pickups that dominate the roadways Not to mention the 22 wheels on the 2007 Cadillac Escalade Despite high gas prices, the utility, functionality and overall preference for trucks overshadows the expense of gas, since gas is still relatively cheap Consumers are more likely to move down a powertrain size than a segment size Powertrain technology like displacement on demand allows consumers to stay within trucks without forfeiting gas mileage 33
Thank You Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director, North America E-mail: rebecca.lindland@globalinsight.com