Chart Discussion First 30+ Deg Day after winter in Melbourne 1
Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC 1
Consensus Forecast 9am Wind Direction & Speed [Days 1 to 14 for Melbourne Airport] D - 1 D - 2 D - 3 D - 4 D - 5 D - 6 D - 7 D - 8 D - 9 D - 10 D - 11 D - 12 D - 13 D - 14 D - 1 D - 2 D - 3 D - 4 D - 5 D - 6 D - 7 D - 8 D - 9 D - 10 D - 11 D - 12 D - 13 D - 14 DATE D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 26- Oct- 18 SW SW SW SW SSW SSE N N SW SSW WNW WNW N N 15 15 15 8 8 5 15 25 15 8 15 25 25 25 27- Oct- 18 SW SW SW W WNW N NNE N NW SW SW WNW WSW SSE 15 15 15 12 15 15 25 35 12 15 15 15 25 15 28- Oct- 18 S SSW SSE S SSE SSE SSW WNW WNW WNW SW SW SW WNW 8 8 12 8 12 15 8 15 25 25 15 10 15 20 29- Oct- 18 S SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE SSW SSW WSW WSW WSW SW SW WNW 8 5 5 5 5 8 8 15 25 25 25 15 15 20 30- Oct- 18 WSW WSW WSW WSW E N N N SW WSW SW WNW SSW SW 8 8 8 8 5 12 12 10 15 25 15 25 8 15 31- Oct- 18 SSE SSE S S SSW S SSE N SW SSW SW NNE NNE WSW 5 5 8 8 8 8 12 12 8 15 10 8 8 8 1- Nov- 18 N N N N N N N N S SW N SSW E N 20 15 25 15 15 15 15 15 8 10 25 8 5 25 2- Nov- 18 NNW WNW WNW WNW WNW N N N N N SW SW S N 25 25 15 15 15 25 25 25 35 25 15 15 8 25 3- Nov- 18 WNW WNW WNW SW WNW WNW WNW SW NW SW SW WNW N 25 25 25 15 15 15 15 10 12 15 15 15 10 4- Nov- 18 N N WSW N N SW WNW SW SW SSW N N 10 10 8 10 10 15 15 15 15 8 12 10 5- Nov- 18 N N N NNW WSW SW W WSW E SSW SSW 25 35 15 15 25 8 12 8 5 15 15 6- Nov- 18 SW WNW WNW SW WSW N N S NNE W 15 15 15 15 8 12 25 8 8 12 7- Nov- 18 SW WNW WNW SW N N N N N 15 25 15 15 10 10 10 12 15 8- Nov- 18 WNW SW SW SW NW WSW SSE W 15 15 15 15 12 8 8 12 9- Nov- 18 WNW SW SW SSE WNW N SSE 15 15 8 5 15 12 12 10- Nov- 18 SW NNE N NNE SW N 15 8 12 8 15 25 11- Nov- 18 SSE N NNE SSE SW 5 40 8 8 10 12- Nov- 18 N NW N SSE 15 12 15 20 13- Nov- 18 N EN E SSE 15 5 12 14- Nov- 18 N EN E 35 35 15- Nov- 18 SW 10
October 2018 rainfall 1
Past Week s Surface Charts 5
Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-02-Nov-2018 OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-02-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 6
Climate Indices El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole may be underway For SST Anomalies Click on: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif 7
Victorian 3-Month Outlook (DEC/JAN/FEB) The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.60 (1.15 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -3.91, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0.46, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 4.27. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is 0.74. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: Mixed OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: Mixed DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: Mixed 8
Melbourne 30-Day Outlook In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 36% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 31% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 44% chance of warm nights, a 32% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 24% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 47% chance of warm days, a 32% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 21% chance of cool days. 9
BoM Climate Outlook (25-Oct) The November to January climate outlook indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average. November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight. 10
Jet Streams: Fri-02-Nov-2018 11
MSL Pressure: Fri-02-Nov-2018 12
Jet Streams: Sat-03-Nov-2018 13
MSL Pressure: Sat-03-Nov-2018 14
Jet Streams: Sun-04-Nov-2018 15
MSL Pressure: Sun-04-Nov-2018 16
Jet Streams: Mon-05-Nov-2018 17
MSL Pressure: Mon-05-Nov-2018 18
Jet Streams: Tue-06-Nov-2018 19
MSL Pressure: Tue-06-Nov-2018 20
Jet Streams: Wed-07-Nov-2018 21
MSL Pressure: Wed-07-Nov-2018 22
Jet Streams: Thu-08-Nov-2018 23
MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov-2018 24
Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov-2018 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 25
Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26
Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 28
PREDICTED WEATHER For GFS, ACCESS, & ECMWF NWP models, & also CONSENSUS click on : http://www.weather-climate.com/14dayforecasts.html Chart Discussion Thank You 29