Financing transport capacity in the United States

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1 Financing transport capacity in the United States Is experience elsewhere useful? Presentation to Minnesota Agri-growth Council Minneapolis, MN March 21, 22 Louis S. Thompson Railways Adviser The World Bank

2 Freight demand growth in the U.S. Demand has grown steadily for truck and rail The relationship of transportation demand to GDP is strong, but a chicken and egg issue Limited potential for modal shifts Limited effect of electronic data versus freight movement

3 Ton-Km in the U.S. by mode (, Ton-Km) 25,, 2,, Rail Lakes Truck Canals 15,, Pipelines Air 1,, 5,,

4 Freight modal shares in the U.S. (% T-Km) Rail Truck Lakes Rivers Pipelines Air 6 5 Deregulation

5 U.S. transportation capacity history -- railroads Rail (responding to market incentives) Early growth, then decline Post Staggers deregulation, reducing capacity, increasing demand and density. Dramatic productivity growth, decline in tariffs Capacity is becoming stretched

6 Km of Rail Line in the US 4 Class I Railroads Local Railroads 1 5 Regional Railroads

7 Employees of US railroads 25 2 Class I Railroads In 1998 Regional Railroads had 1,995 employees and Local Railroads had 11,741 employees

8 Productivity in U.S. railroads: Index: 1982= Wagons (Ton-km/ton of wagon capacity) Labor (Ton-km/employee) 1 5 Locomotives: (Ton-km/horsepower)

9 US rail freight revenue (US cents/ton-km) Constant 1988 dollars Current dollars Source: AAR Handbooks of Railroad facts, various years

10 1997 U.S. rail traffic Revenue/Ton-Mile Revenue/Variable Cost Average Average 1. Coal Farm Products Food Metallic Ores Lumber/ Wood Nonmetallic Minerals Top 12 commodities, 86 % of ton-miles Primary Metals Clay, Concrete Petroleum/Coal Prod Pulp, Paper Chemicals Transportation Eqpt

11 Ton-Mi/Mi on U.S. Class I Railroads 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Amtrak Established Deregulation

12 Average U.S. freight train speed (mph)

13 U.S. rail freight line traffic density

14 Rail traffic density comparison traffic units per kilometer passenger and freight 3, 25, 2, Freight only 15, 1, 5, Hungary Turkey UK Sweden France Poland Romania Italy Germany CN Austria CP Netherlands India China Russia Korea Japan US:Class I Note: traffic units is the sum of ton-km plus passenger-km

15 Labor productivity 1999 and compared with 1988 Output ( TU)/Employee Poland Slovenia Turkey Romania Cz+Slvk Hungary Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia TU/Emp Ratio 99/88 % Ukraine Lithuania Armenia Latvia Belarus Estonia Russia Kazakhstan US:Amtrak France Italy Austria Ratio of: 99 output/employee to 88 output/employee % US: Cl I Frt Canada:CN Finland Germany* CEE CIS EUR/NA Source: World Bank Railway Database

16 U.S. transport capacity: roads and highways Roads: (the U.S. built them and the traffic came even faster) Lane-mile capacity growth More rapid traffic increases (auto and bus vs. truck) The urban/rural balance Result: increasing congestion

17 Lane-miles of major highways in the U.S. 1,3, 1,2, 1,1, 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Interstates Other Arterials Total Source: National Transportation Statistics 2

18 Interstate Highways mileage

19 Highway traffic density in the U.S. Index: 198=1 (Vehicle Miles Traveled/Lane-Mile) index Urban Interstate Urban Arterials Rural Interstate Rural Arterials Source: National Transportation Statistics 2

20 Urban highway congestion Congestion Index: >1. = undesirable Minneapolis/St Paul Average for all 68 cities cities total. 5 largest plus 18 selected by States. 5 congested in 1982, 4 congested in 1997 Source: National Transportation Statistics 2

21 Financing issues: past and future How the U.S. financed transport capacity in the past Transport financing in U.S. compared with elsewhere The various degrees of cross subsidy

22 Balance of U.S. transportation spending in , 6, 4, State Federal 2, Air Water -2, -4, Charges Spending Net Charges Spending Net Charges Spending Net Charges Spending Net Charges Spending Net -6, Transit Rail -8, -1, -12, Highways

23 Average highway user charge revenue: U.K. compared to U.S. (US cents per vehicle mile) UK US Auto Light trucks Heavy trucks Source: Sansom, Nash, Mackie, et al, Surface Transport Costs and Charges, Great Britain, 1998 And, Addendum to the 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, May, 2

24 Ratio of highway user charge revenue to fully allocated infrastructure costs Auto Light trucks Heavy trucks UK US Source: Sansom, Nash, Mackie, et al, Surface Transport Costs and Charges, Great Britain, 1998 And, Addendum to the 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, May, 2

25 Financing capacity in the future:barriers What can the U.S. afford? Railroads Highways Getting prices right, for capacity and for environmental effects Funding and administrative barriers (FAA and air traffic control, Corps of Engineers, funding fences) A better public/private balance Public investment in private rail infrastructure? Private investment in highway infrastructure? New technology (road pricing, intelligent vehicles, rail signaling and electrification): does or can it promote efficiency and increase capacity?

26 GDP/Capita 1999 (US$ at PPP) Italy Ireland Spain Poland Mexico Russia Brazil Romania China India Sweden UK US Norway Denmark Belgium Japan Canada Netherlands Germany France Finland Source: WDR 2/21, pg 274/275

27 Class I railroad investment in track as % of total investment Accounting Change

28 Rate of Return in U.S. Railroads () Net income as % of shareholder equity 8 6 Net Railway Operating Income as % of Asset Value

29 One approach to relieving urban congestion

30 Average U.S. freight tariffs Index: 199 = Rail LTL truck TL truck Barge Prod.Price 4 2 Deregulation

31 Gasoline and diesel fuel prices (US $/gallon) Saudi Arabia Gasoline (super) Diesel Untaxed Russia India China US Average Mexico Brazil Canada Romania Poland Germany Japan Spain France Finland Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Italy Ireland Norway UK Source: Fuel Prices and Taxation, GTZ, May 1999

32 Ratio of highway user charge revenue to marginal transport costs in the U.K. and U.S UK US Auto Light trucks Heavy trucks Source: Sansom, Nash, Mackie, et al, Surface Transport Costs and Charges, Great Britain, 1998 And, Addendum to the 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, May, 2

33 Percent of marginal costs attributable to congestion Auto Light trucks Heavy trucks UK US Source: Sansom, Nash, Mackie, et al, Surface Transport Costs and Charges, Great Britain, 1998 And, Addendum to the 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, May, 2

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