BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS. November 2013: Economic Sentiment improves in the euro area and the EU
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1 November 2013 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS 120 Graph 1: Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.) Euro Area (EA) long-term av erage ( ) = 100 European Union (EU) source: European Commission services November 2013: Economic Sentiment improves in the euro area and the EU In November the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased by 0.8 points in the euro area (to 98.5) and by 0.4 points in the EU (to 102.1). While the upward trend observed since May has been preserved, the improvement in confidence has noticeably decelerated over the past two months, mirroring differences in developments across sectors. Euro area developments In the euro area, the ESI's increase was driven by improved confidence in services and industry. Confidence weakened among consumers and in construction and remained broadly unchanged in retail trade. Economic sentiment improved in four out of the five largest euro area economies, i.e. Italy (+1.9), Spain (+1.4), the Netherlands (+1.3) and Germany (+0.8), while it deteriorated in France (-0.9). The increase in industry confidence (+1.1) resulted mainly from an important improvement in managers' assessment of the current level of overall order books. Their production expectations increased as well, though to a lesser degree, while their assessment of the stocks of finished products remained broadly stable. Also managers' assessments of the past production and the current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, improved markedly in November. Services confidence registered a strong increase (+2.9), resulting from far better assessments of past demand and the past business situation. Managers' demand expectations improved markedly too. Consumer confidence declined (-0.9), putting a halt to the upward trend observed since December This was mainly due to a sharp decline registered in France, and reflected worsening expectations about the future general economic situation, unemployment expectations and savings over the next 12 months. By contrast, consumers' views on the future financial situation of their households improved. Retail trade confidence remained broadly unchanged, resulting from an important improvement in managers' business expectations, which was offset by worsening views on the volume of stocks. Retailers' assessment of the present business situation remained virtually unchanged. Confidence in the construction sector decreased (-0.9), resulting from managers' worsened assessment of both order books and employment expectations. Financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) decreased by 3.7 points. While managers' views of the past business situation became more positive, views of past demand and demand expectations deteriorated. Employment plans were revised upwards in industry and services, while they worsened in retail trade and construction. Selling price expectations increased in all the business sectors. Offsetting last month's marked decrease, the increase was particularly strong in the construction sector. EU developments In the wider EU, the improvement in sentiment was less pronounced (+0.4). On a sector basis, confidence improved at a higher rate in industry and at a lower rate in services. As in the euro area, confidence among consumers decreased. In contrast to the euro area, confidence declined strongly in retail trade and improved somewhat in construction. The main reason for the strong decrease in retail trade was sharply worsening confidence in the largest non-euro area EU economy, the UK. In line with developments in the euro area, the EU financial services confidence indicator decreased (-4.0). Economic and Financial Affairs
2 Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % 2 Further in line with the euro area, employment plans in the EU were revised upwards in industry and services, and downwards in retail trade and construction. Selling price expectations in the EU differed compared to the euro area in that they were revised downwards for services and remained broadly unchanged in retail trade. Consumers' price expectations were revised downwards, in line with assessments in the euro area. Industrial investment survey (conducted in October/November) According to the bi-annual investment survey carried out in October/November this year, real investment in the manufacturing industry is expected to decrease by 3% in the euro area in In the previous survey conducted in March/April 2013 managers expected an increase by 1%. For 2014, managers expect a growth of 3%. In the wider EU, real investment growth in manufacturing is estimated to remain unchanged in 2013, while the March/April 2013 survey pointed to an increase in investment of 3%. Regarding 2014, current expectations point to a 4% increase Graph 2: Industrial confidence indicator 20 Graph 3: Services confidence indicator EA long-term av erage EA long-term av erage EA EA EU -30 EU Graph 4: Consumer confidence indicator EA EU Graph 5: Retail trade confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term av erage EA long-term av erage Graph 6: Construction confidence indicator Graph 7: Financial services confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term av erage EA av erage EA EU
3 Volume change Balances, % Balances, % 3 40 Graph 8: Price expectations in the EA 20 Graph 9: Employment and unemployment in the EA Industry Consumers Construction Industry Services Consumers (1) (1) Unemployment expectations (right-hand scale) Balances, % (inverted scale) 40 y-o-y % Graph 10: Investment expectations EA EU BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
4 TABLE 1*: Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 4 Since 1990 (*) EU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) EA 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) BE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI BG 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CZ 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI EE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI IE 1. Industry : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2. Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : = 6. ESI : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : EL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI ES 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI HR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Following the accession of Croatia to the EU, the country results are included in the results for the EU aggregate as from July 2013.
5 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 5 IT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CY 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LV 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LU 1. Industry Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI HU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI MT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI NL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI AT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI RO 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI
6 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 6 SK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI UK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI In the tables: (s.a.) = seasonally adjusted, (n) = not seasonally adjusted, : = not available. (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. The economic sentiment indicator is composed of the industrial confidence indicator (40%), the service confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%), and the retail trade confidence indicator (5%). Its long term average ( ) equals 100. The reported ESI average is based on this standardisation sample. All confidence indicators are balances. Following the last annual update in January 2013, the country weights have been updated once more in July 2013, to reflect the accession of Croatia on 1 July.
7 TABLE 2: Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 7 INDUSTRIAL EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 5) BE BG Component of the CZ industrial confidence DK indicator DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ORDER BOOKS EU (Question 2) EA BE Component of the BG industrial confidence CZ indicator DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
8 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 8 STOCKS OF EU FINISHED EA PRODUCTS (b) BE (Question 4) BG CZ Component of the DK industrial confidence DE indicator EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU TREND OBSERVED EA IN RECENT MONTHS BE (Question 1) BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EXPORT EU ORDER BOOKS EA (Question 3) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
9 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 9 EMPLOYMENT EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 7) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK SELLING PRICE EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 6) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. (a) The indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) of the questions on production expectations, order-books and stocks (the last with inverted sign). (b) Highest figure is considered as a minimum, lowest figure is considered as a maximum.
10 TABLE 2e: Industrial investment survey - all branches. EU Member States. Results of October/November 2013 investment survey, % change in value, over the preceding year 10 Year: Date of Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. survey: Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. EU : 6 EA : 5 BE : 9 BG : -22 CZ : 2 DK : 1 DE : 6 EE : 69 IE : : : : : : : : : EL : -17 ES : 30 FR : -3 HR : : : : : 13 IT : -2 CY : 4 LV : 3 LT : 18 LU : 4 HU : 4 MT : : 7 NL : 2 AT : 8 PL : 12 PT : 9 RO : 66 SI : 11 SK : : 4 FI : -4 SE : 1 UK : 6 Source: European Commission investment survey. TABLE 2f: Industrial investment survey - all branches. EU Member States. Results of October/November 2013 investment survey, % change in volume, over the preceding year Year: Date of survey: Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov. Mar./Apr. Oct./Nov Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. Provis. Estim. Final Provis. EU : 4 EA : 3 BE : 7 BG : -24 CZ : 2 DK : 0 DE : 5 EE : 65 IE : : 4 : 0 1 : : : : : : : EL : -16 ES : 29 FR : -5 HR : 4 : : : 11 IT : -4 CY : 2 LV : 0 LT : 13 LU : 2 HU : 2 MT : : 2 NL : 1 AT : 5 PL : 10 PT : 7 RO : 61 SI : 10 SK : 2 FI : -7 SE : -1 UK : 4 Source: European Commission investment survey.
11 11 TABLE 2i: Factors FDEMTinfluencing FDEMN industrial FFINT investment FFINT by country FFINN FTECT FTECT FTECN FOTHT FOTHT FOTHN Demand Financial resources or expected profits Technical factors (b) Other factors EU EA BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE 38 : : -7 : : -19 : : -29 : : EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO : -1-1 SI SK FI SE UK (a) Balances are the weighted averages of the percentages of answers describing each factor as 'very stimulating' (coefficient 1), 'stimulating' (0.5), 'limiting' (-0.5) and 'very limiting' (-1). The answers which do not mention any of these descriptions are not taken into account in calculating these percentages. (b) The main technical factors are technological developments, the availability of labour and its attitude towards new technologies, and the technical conditions set by the public authorities before they grant the investment permit. Source : European Commission investment survey. TABLE 2j: Structure of industrial investment in industry as a whole (Breakdown of industrialists' views of the type of investment) (a) SREPT SREPT SREPN SEXTT SEXTT SEXTN SRATT SRATT SRATN SOTHT SOTHT SOTHN Replacement Extension Rationalisation Other factors EU EA BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE 39 : : 31 : : 40 : : 20 : : EL ES HR FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK (a) % of respondents that choose this category as the most relevant. More than one category can be chosen, therefore the sum of the 4 categories may be greater than 100. Source : European Commission investment survey.
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