Transportation Statistical Data Development Report BAY COUNTY 2035 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

Transcription

1 Transportation Statistical Data Development Report BAY COUNTY 2035 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN Prepared for Bay County Transportation Planning Organization and The Florida Department of Transportation, District Three Prepared by West Florida Regional Planning Council Staff to the Bay County Transportation Planning Organization May 2010 This report was financed in part by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, the Florida Department of Transportation, and local participating governments, in partial fulfillment of UPWP Work Task

2 Bay County Transportation Planning Organization Transportation Statistical Data Development and Review Report Prepared by: The West Florida Regional Planning Council Staff to the Bay County Transportation Planning Organization The Bay County Transportation Planning Organization can be reached at: Post Office Box E. Olive Road, Suite A Pensacola, Florida Pensacola, Florida Phone: Fax: (800) (850) (850) Staff contacts for this Document: Gary Kramer, Senior Transportation Planner gary.kramer@wfrpc.org Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update i

3 Table of Contents Chapter Page Number INTRODUCTION... 1 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE STRUCTURE... 4 TAZ Development Procedure... 4 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ) DATA DEVELOPMENT... 6 Base Year Data Development... 8 Dwelling Units... 8 Population... 8 Employment... 8 Hotel/Motel Units... 9 School Enrollment... 9 Base Year Data Review Land Use Alternatives Trend Analysis Land Use Alternative Forecast Years Data Development Housing Data Employment Data Population Data Hotel/Motel Units School Enrollment TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ) STATISTICAL DATA Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update ii

4 List of Figures and Tables Figures/Tables Page Number FIGURE 1 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STATEWIDE LOCATION MAP... 2 FIGURE 2 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN AREA STUDY BOUNDARY... 3 TABLE 1 - FORECAST YEAR DWELLING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY UNIT TYPE BY LONG TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA TABLE 2 - FORECAST YEAR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE BY LONG TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA TABLE 3 - FORECAST YEAR POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA TABLE 4 - FORECAST YEAR HOTEL/MOTEL PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA TABLE 5 - FORECAST SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update iii

5 Appendices Appendix A B C 2006 Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) 2015 Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) 2020 Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) D Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) E Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) F Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update iv

6 INTRODUCTION All base year data for the Bay County 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan is based on conditions on the ground as of December Forecast data for the years 2006, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 are developed for this plan update at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. These socioeconomic data will be inputs to the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS). The computerized transportation model will generate trips from each TAZ onto the highway network. This exercise will highlight roadway deficiencies expected in the forecast years. Plan alternatives, which will address forecast traffic needs, will then be developed. This Technical Report contains a description of the TPO's data development process and assignment of statistical data to each TAZ for the 2006 Base Year and forecast years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and Figures 1 and 2 show the study area location in relationship to the state of Florida and Bay County. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 1

7 FIGURE 1 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STATEWIDE LOCATION MAP Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 2

8 FIGURE 2 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN AREA STUDY BOUNDARY Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 3

9 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE STRUCTURE The Bay County Long Range Transportation Plan Update zonal structure consists of 239 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). This section defines the purpose of TAZs and describes the process for defining zones in the urbanized area. The Traffic Analysis Zone Maps for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area are listed in a separate Appendix Report. The purpose of TAZs is to provide for the collection and forecast of transportation related socioeconomic data at a geographic scale which will accurately reflect traffic generation and loading onto the highway network. TAZ Development Procedure TAZs form the basis for all data collection and forecasts for this transportation plan. The Bay County Long Range Transportation Plan zonal structure was carefully modeled to ensure compatibility between zones and the highway network, and to ease the collection and manipulation of data. The standardized procedure recommended by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), and outlined in the following paragraphs, was employed in development of the Bay County Long Range Transportation Plan zonal structure zonal structure. Tracing census boundaries formed initial TAZ boundaries. As a rule, these boundaries were maintained through the TAZ development process in order to facilitate disaggregation of census data to the TAZs. The next step was to further subdivide the initial TAZs by drawing in boundaries representing physical barriers, such as creeks or bayous, which restrict travel from one geographic area to another. The Bay County Long Range Transportation Plan highway network formed the final subdivision of TAZs. In all cases, TAZ boundaries conform to census blocks, which can be aggregated to census tracts. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 4

10 The following guidelines were employed: 1. The total number of TAZs was kept as few as possible in order to increase the accuracy in collection, disaggregation, and forecast of socioeconomic data. 2. TAZ boundaries were adjusted, where feasible, in order to maintain homogeneous land use within each zone. 3. Efforts were made to balance the size of each TAZ, in terms of estimated trip generation, in order to accurately simulate vehicle trips on the highway network. 4. In some cases it was necessary for TAZs to be larger than the area delineated by the network. In these cases, zones were drawn using higher network facility types as the boundaries. In other words, it is more desirable to have a lower network facility type, such as a collector, cross a TAZ boundary than a higher one, such as an arterial. 5. Odd shaped TAZs were avoided where possible. Elongated or irregular shapes will not simulate proper loading onto the highway network. In general, TAZs should be the shape of regular polygons. The TPO staff has created additional TAZs to expand countywide for Bay County because of the entirety of Bay County is the now TPO Planning Area. The TAZs are numbered with being dummy zones. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 5

11 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ) DATA DEVELOPMENT The Bay County 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Update socioeconomic database consists of five (5) basic variables: population, employment, dwelling units, hotel/motel units, and school enrollment. This section explains the purpose of the variables in zonal trip generation and describes the methodology employed in developing the base year and forecast year data. The Bay County data needs are established by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) input requirements to the standard trip generation model. Four (4) zonal data (ZDATA) files are required by the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) computer model to replicate 2006 base year trips and forecast future year trips. These files are: 1. ZONEDATA - Trip Production and attraction data, 2. SPECGEN - Special Generation data, and 3. INTEXT - Internal-External trip productions. The ZONEDATA files provide data necessary for the trip generation model to calculate the number of trips "produced" by each TAZ. Production data include TAZ population, dwelling units, hotel/motel units, and auto availability. The main sources of data for this file are the 2000 census, the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), and the Florida Department of Business Regulation. The number of trips "attracted" to each TAZ is computed through input of the ZDATA2 file to the trip generation model. Attraction data includes employment and school enrollment. The primary sources of data for this file are the InfoUSA, and local school boards as well as local universities and community colleges. Special generators are input through the SPECGEN file. Special generators represent production or attraction data for particular land uses which have unusual trip making characteristics that are not reflected in the trip generation model. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 6

12 Finally, trip production data necessary to determine the number of trips originating inside the study area with a designation outside the study area is referred to as Internal-External trip productions (INTEXT). Each of the five (5) basic data variables contained in this report is defined below. 1. Population - Population categories include permanent year round residents living in single family or multi-family housing units, as defined below. 2. Dwelling Units - Dwelling unit categories include single family and multi-family, year-round and seasonal housing units. Single-family units are defined as detached one family homes; while multi-family units are represented by two or more family structures and mobile homes. Mobile home dwelling units are included in this category because their trip making characteristics are very similar to multi-family units. The multi-family category also includes condominiums, but not hotels and motels. Multi-family units are counted by family units not structures. 3. Employment - Employment categories include industrial, commercial, and service. Industrial employment generally includes manufacturing and construction activities. Commercial employment is represented by retail and wholesale product sales activities, such as department store and grocery store employment. Service employment includes activities, which are service oriented, such as school and restaurant employment. Military employment is also included in the service category. All employment is located by place of work. 4. Hotel/Motel Units - This data variable includes nonpermanent resident housing units for transients. Units are counted by rooms not structure. 5. School Enrollment - This data variable includes public schools, junior colleges, senior colleges, vocational/technical, and private school enrollment assigned by school location. The school enrollment data used for the Bay County 2035 plan update reflects year-end school enrollment. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 7

13 Base Year Data Development The methodologies employed in developing the 2006 Base Year data for each socioeconomic variable are explained in this section. It should be noted that 2000 census data were utilized in development of the base year socioeconomic data. Dwelling Units Development of the 2006 Base Year single family and multi-family dwelling unit totals for each TAZ involved establishing a reliable base. The 2000 Census data by tracts provided that base. Building permits which were issued from 2000 to 2006 were obtained and assigned to the appropriate TAZs. The number of permits issued in each TAZ was then added to the 2000 census data to obtain the number of dwelling units in each TAZ for In the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area dwelling unit totals for the 2006 base year were established at 47,992 single family units and 47,221 multi-family and mobile home units. For the purposes of this study, all condominium units were included in the multi-family category. Population Development of single family and multi-family 2006 Base Year population totals for each TAZ in the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area was accomplished by using the 2000 Census Data and the 2006 base year dwelling units. Occupancy and persons per household rates from the 2000 Census for single family and multi-family dwelling units were determined for each zone. These rates were applied to the corresponding 2006 Base Year dwelling unit totals for each TAZ to derive 2006 estimated population figures. The total population of the study area (all of Bay County) was 184,978 in Employment Employment data was obtained from InfoUSA and assigned to TAZs based on employer address. Once the employment data was assigned, it was disaggregated into three employment Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 8

14 categories commercial, service, and industrial. This process was accomplished by use of Standard Industrial Classification Manual (1987) codes. The SIC codes are for Industrial Employment; for Commercial Employment; and and for Service Employment. Several large employers were contacted directly to obtain their employment, including the Bay County School Board, the Gulf Coast Community College, and the Florida State University Panama City Campus. The local military bases and hospitals were also contacted about employment levels, as well as the large industrial employers in the Bay County area. Total 2006 employment was estimated to be 22,303 Commercial and 52,545 Service Employees. Industrial employment is estimated to be 10,796. This gives a total estimated employment for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study area of 85,644. Hotel/Motel Units The data source for hotel/motel information is the Florida Department of Business Regulation and the Division of Hotels and Restaurants, which maintains an up-to-date file on such businesses. The file contains the address and number of units for each hotel/motel. This information was obtained and assigned to TAZs in order to generate 2006 base year totals. The total hotel/motel units were estimated to be 9,289 in School Enrollment The Bay County School Board was contacted for the address location and enrollment for each public school in Bay County. The School Board also had location information on private schools in the area, including the enrollment in some cases. Private schools for which enrollment was not available were contacted directly for their enrollment. The Gulf Coast Community Colleage and Florida State University Panama City Campus were also contacted directly concerning their enrollment levels. The total study area school enrollment in 2006 was estimated to be 68,527. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 9

15 Base Year Data Review The base year data was reviewed by the local planning agencies as part of the Land Use Subcommittee that also reviewed the Land Use Scenarios. The Land Use Subcommittee reviewed the base year data at its October 27, 2008 and November 3, 2008 meetings and the TPO staff noted areas where data assignments needed adjustments. The Bay County Technical Coordinating Committee adopted the base year data on December 17, Land Use Alternatives In order to arrive at the final data set for 2035, the TPO Staff formed a Land Use Subcommittee of local planners, FDOT, St. Joe, and the University of West Florida Haas Center to review the land use data developed by the TPO Staff and their consultant Transportation Planning Services. Two land use alternatives were setup, tested, and evaluated with the Urban Land Use Allocation Model and reviewed by the Land Use Subcommittee. The first land use was based on existing trends, or the Trend Analysis. The other land use developed was a land use alternative. The following is a description of both land use alternatives. A detailed Land Use Alternative Technical Report, similar to this Data Report, has to be developed as part of the Bay County 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Update. Trend Analysis Using the parcel data and current zoning information for Bay County, a land use alternative was developed to reflect the historical growth patterns of the area. This alternative included filtering out of wetlands and environmental constrained areas. No change has been identified for Tyndall Air Force Base. Land Use Alternative This land use alternative was designed to create moderate density activity nodes that can be served by transportation and other infrastructure in a more efficient and cost effective manner. This Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 10

16 alternative was created by increasing the density and intensity of use and creating a better job/housing mix in those areas. As part of the contract negotiations between the TPO Staff and their consultant DRMP, the Trend Analysis is what the 2035 land use forecasted data is based on and Gary Kramer, the TPO Project Manager for this study, further clarified this assumption to the Land Use Subcommittee at their meeting on December 10, Forecast Years Data Development Once the 2035 Trend Analysis Land Use Alternative was adopted, interim projections from the Urban Land Use Allocation (ULAM) model could be obtained. In addition to the 2035 data, the interim years selected from ULAM and designated in the Scope of Services were 2015, 2025, 2030, and The following are the data identified: Population, Dwelling Units, Employment, Hotel/Motel Units, and School Enrollment. Housing Data Each TAZ was reviewed, and the land use, density levels, and developable acres were determined. Local Government Comprehensive Plans were used to determine the type and density of development allowed in each zone. The TPO staff, using the 2006 base year housing data, developed a ratio between the total number of dwelling units and the number of single family, multi-family units, and mobile homes for each TAZ. This ratio was developed by taking, as an example, the 2006 base year number for single family dwelling units in a TAZ and dividing it by the total number of single family dwelling units for the study area within the county. This produces a ratio of dwelling units in the TAZ to total dwelling units. Once the ratio was determined for each TAZ, it was multiplied by the actual projected growth for single-family dwelling units, which was established by the dwelling units control totals. This number was then added back into the base year single-family dwelling unit number to determine the year 2006 single-family dwelling unit projection for the TAZ. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 11

17 Once this was complete, each TAZ was checked to ensure a reasonable number of dwelling units was assigned based on local comprehensive plans. This was done for each forecast year (2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035). Any adjustments, which were necessary, were done manually. In other words, if the methodology described above over or under assigned units to a particular zone, an appropriate number of units was subtracted out or added into the TAZ. The same number of units would then be added or subtracted from another TAZ where too many or too few units were assigned. Listed in Table 1 is the forecast year housing data for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study area. TABLE 1 - FORECAST YEAR DWELLING UNIT PROJECTIONS BY UNIT TYPE BY LONG TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA Single Family Units 48,994 49,426 52,025 54,458 56,958 *Multi Family Units 48,389 48,693 51,307 53,805 56,416 * Multi Family Unit forecasts include Mobile Homes Employment Data The employment forecasts were developed using the same methodology as the housing forecasts. The TPO Staff began with the ratio of 2006 TAZ employment, by type (service, industrial, and commercial), to total study area employment by county. This ratio was then multiplied by the actual projected growth, which was established by the employment control totals. The outcome is then added back into the base year employment number to come up with the 2006 projections for each TAZ. Once the employment forecasts were developed, the TPO Staff checked each TAZ to ensure a reasonable amount of employment had been allocated to the zone. As with the dwelling unit forecasts, any adjustments, which were needed, were done manually. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 12

18 forecast years. Listed in Table 2 are the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area employment data for the TABLE 2 - FORECAST YEAR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY EMPLOYMENT TYPE BY LONG TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA Industrial 10,913 11,191 11,810 12,396 13,011 Commercial 23,892 23,892 24,399 25,609 26,879 Service 55,770 55,770 57,482 60,333 63,326 Study Area 90,575 90,853 93,691 98, ,216 Population Data The forecast year population data were developed by taking total number of dwelling units in each TAZ for each forecast year and multiplying it by the vacancy rate, which determines the total number of occupied housing units in each TAZ. This number is then multiplied by the persons per household rate for each TAZ. The outcome is the estimated population by TAZ. The number of households is derived from the dwelling unit forecasts discussed previously, and the vacancy rates are developed from the 2000 census data. This method is used for each TAZ for each of the forecast years (2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035). This resulted in the population projections for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area shown in Table 3. TABLE 3 - FORECAST YEAR POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA Single Family 114, , , , ,819 Multi-Family 76,090 76,649 80,889 84,901 89,112 Study Area 190, , , , ,931 Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 13

19 Hotel/Motel Units Table 4 shows the Hotel/Motel projections for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area. TABLE 4 - FORECAST YEAR HOTEL/MOTEL PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA ,289 9,629 10,162 10,666 11,195 School Enrollment School enrollment forecast year data were developed and manually allocated to each TAZ. The county school board was contacted directly and questioned about their anticipated growth in enrollment. Information concerning the location and enrollment of any new schools was also obtained from the school board. The Gulf Coast Community College and Florida-State University Panama City Campus were also contacted to determine forecast year enrollment levels for each facility. Listed in Table 5 is the forecast school enrollment, which is summer school enrollment, for the Long Range Transportation Plan Study Area. TABLE 5 - FORECAST SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STUDY AREA ,886 52,416 54,951 57,490 60,017 Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 14

20 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ) STATISTICAL DATA The tables in the appendices contain the 2006 base year and forecast 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 data sets. These are all inputs to the regional transportation model. It is emphasized that these data were developed for TPO transportation planning purposes. This information is not intended to be a land use plan for any part of the urban area. Bay County Data Report 2035 Plan Update 15

21 APPENDIX A 2006 DATA BY TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)

22 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-1

23 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-2

24 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-3

25 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-4

26 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-5

27 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO A-6

28 2006 BASE YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO TOTAL 111,037 73, ,978 10,796 22,303 52,545 85,644 47,992 47,221 95,213 68,527 9,289 SF_POP = Single Family Population MF_POP = Multi-Family Population SF_DU = Single Family Dwelling Units MF_DU = Multi-Family Dwelling Units TAZs = Bay County (TAZs are dummy zones in the Transportation Forecasting Model) A-7

29 APPENDIX B 2015 DATA BY TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)

30 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-1

31 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-2

32 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-3

33 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-4

34 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-5

35 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO B-6

36 2015 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO TOTAL 114,019 76, ,109 10,913 23,892 55,770 90,575 48,994 48,389 97,383 49,886 9,289 SF_POP = Single Family Population MF_POP = Multi-Family Population SF_DU = Single Family Dwelling Units MF_DU = Multi-Family Dwelling Units TAZs = Bay County (TAZs are dummy zones in the Transportation Forecasting Model) B-7

37 APPENDIX C 2020 DATA BY TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)

38 2020 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO C-1

39 2020 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO C-2

40 2020 INTERIM YEAR INFORMATION -- BAY COUNTY TPO C-3