DISCOVER U.S. SPENDING MONITOR SM
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1 DISCOVER U.S. SPENDING MONITOR SM Mar Feb DSM Spending Econ DSBW The Discover U.S. Spending Monitor fell 2.2 in September, as consumers soured on the U.S. economy and worked hard to hold-the-line on their spending. Virtually all the decline occurred in the last three weeks of the month as the government struggled to pass a rescue package for markets battered by the mortgage credit crisis. News of the demise or near demise of stalwart companies like Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch, and AIG; the U.S. Treasury s multi-billion dollar bailouts of mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; and the FDIC s intervention to prop the nation s largest-ever bank failure put consumer confidence in a free fall in the period between September 10 October 1. During that time the Discover Weekly Monitor plummeted 11 points reaching to 81, by a wide margin (5 points), its lowest level ever. Under the circumstances, it is no wonder that the economy once again began falling out of favor with consumers, whose spending accounts for 70 percent of the nation s gross domestic product. Fifty-five percent rated the economy as poor compared to 50 percent last month; and 70 percent said the economy was getting worse versus 65 percent in August. Despite their faltering confidence in the economy, consumer attitudes about their own finances remained steady. There was no change in the number who rated their finances good or excellent (39 percent); and both this month and last, 52 percent of the respondents said they thought their finances were getting worse these days. As far as spending is concerned, consumers continue to hold-the-line against the uncertainties of the economy. Two-thirds (66 percent) of this month s Monitor sample of 15,000 US adults say they expect to spend the same or less next month, a small uptick from 65 percent recorded in August. What is more, for the fourth month in a row, the percent of consumers who say they spent more last month has declined to 43 percent in September from 46 percent in August and 56 percent last May. The U.S. buying public continues to pay close attention to their monthly budgets. A comparatively healthy number 52 percent say they will have money left over this month after paying their bills. That s higher than the 50 percent who claimed in May to have money left at the end of the month and on par with the level reported last September. For the second month in a row, about two thirds (65 percent) of those with money left over say it will be the same amount as last month. By contrast, this time last year, 67 percent said they would have the same amount in their pocket after they paid the month s bills. 1
2 Consumers seem to be holding the line when it comes to spending on household and discretionary items, aided greatly by steady gasoline prices which remained in the $3.70 per gallon range despite the effects of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike on refinery production. Forty-six percent, the same as last month, of the September Monitor sample said they would probably have higher household expenses while 51 percent said they would incur less in discretionary expense, a modest decline from 52 percent last month. Food Prices Take a Toll on Spending; Restaurants Hit Hard The Monitor asked consumers about the effects of food prices this month. More than half of the nation s consumers, 56 percent, say they are very concerned about rising food costs; and nearly two-thirds (64 percent) say that they are cutting back on their spending because of it. To cope with the increased costs, Americans are staying home to eat. Fifty-four (54) percent say they are eating out less often; and when they do eat out, 46 percent say they are going to less expensive restaurants. Women, the primary purchasers of food in the U.S., tend to be much more concerned about the price of food than men and are much more likely to cut back on their out-of-home eating. More than 62 percent of women are very worried about food prices compared to 50 percent of men; and 60 percent of women say they are eating out less often compared to only 48 percent of men. Income also impacts eating options. Three consumers in four with incomes below $40,000 are very concerned about food prices whereas only 38 percent of the people with incomes of $75,000 or more a year feel the same way. By very nearly an order of magnitude, higher income groups are also less likely to change their eating-out habits. Where 64 percent of the group making less than $40,000 is going out less often, only 44 percent of the higher income segment is taking the same step to stem their spending. 2
3 Discover US Spending Monitor Survey of 14,000 US Adults Baseline Index Questions 1* Generally, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent Good Fair Poor Not sure Index * How would you rate your own personal finances these days? Excellent Good Fair Poor Not sure Index * Think for a moment about all the money you spend each month are you spending more, less or about the same as last month? More Less Same Not sure Index * Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse? Better Worse Same Not sure Index * Are your personal finances getting better these days, or worse? Better Worse Same Not sure Index * Do you think you will spend more, less or about the same next month? More Less Same Not sure Index
4 Discover US Spending Monitor (Cont.) 7* Over the next 30 days, do you anticipate added expenses or a shortfall in income that would cause you to cut back on current lifestyle, spending habits? Yes No Not sure Index * When you finish paying all of your regular bills this month, will you have money left over? Yes No Not sure Index * [Only those who answered yes to #6] Okay, will you have more money left over than last month, less money, or about the same amount? More Less Same Not sure Index * Suppose you lost your income suddenly. How many months would you be able to continue living your current lifestyle before replacing your income? None mo mos mos mos mos or more Not sure Index
5 Category Spending 1* Spending next month on household expenses? More Less Same Not sure * Spending next month on discretionary personal expenses? More Less Same Not sure * Spending next month on household improvements? More Less Same Not sure * Spending next month on major personal purchases? More Less Same Not sure * Saving and investing next month? More Less Same Not sure
6 Impact of Higher Food Prices 1* How concerned are you about higher food prices? Sep Very 56.3 Somewhat 31.3 Not very 10.6 Not at all 1.1 Not sure 0.7 4* How often do you eat away from home?? Sep Rarely or never 33.7 Once a week 30.2 Twice a week 17.7 Three times a week 8.2 More than 3 times a week 9.0 2* Is your concern about higher food prices causing you to reduce your spending? Sep Yes 64.3 No 26.8 Not sure 9.0 3* In what area did you reduce spending first? Sep Grocery spending 16.3 Eating out 39.3 Entertainment 18.9 Major purchases 10.0 Savings 4.5 Other 5.0 Not Sure 6.0 5* In the last six months, are you eating out more often, less often or about the same? Sep More often 5.3 Less Often 54.6 About the same 38.7 Not sure 1.4 6* When you do eat out these days compared to six months ago, are you more likely to choose a less expensive restaurant, choose the same restaurant and order less expensive meals, order fewer items? Sep Less Expensive 45.6 Order less expensive meals 22.2 Order fewer items 11.8 Not sure
7 Baseline Monitor Gender, Age Rate Econ Total Gender Age Adults Male Female Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Index Excellent Good Fair Poor Not sure Econ Better or Worse Better Worse Stay same Not sure Rate Personal Finances Excellent Good Fair Poor Not sure Personal Finances Better or Worse Better Worse Stay same Not sure Spending Compared to Last Month More Less About same Not sure
8 Baseline Monitor Gender, Age (cont.) Spending Next Month Total Gender Age Adults Male Female Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Index More Less About same Not sure Add Exp. or Yes Shortfall No Next Days Not sure Money Left After Paying Debts Yes No Not sure Money Left Compared to Last Month More Less About same Not sure Months Continue Lifestyle If You Lost Income None One Two Three Four Five Six Not sure
9 Baseline Monitor Income, Married Rate Econ Total Income Married Home Adults <$40k $40K to $75K $75K+ Yes No Yes No Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Index Excel Good Fair Poor Not sure Econ Better or Worse Better Worse Same Not sure Rate Personal Finances Excel Good Fair Poor Not sure Personal Finances Better or Worse Better Worse Same Not sure Spending Compared to Last Month More Less Same Not sure
10 Baseline Monitor Income, Married (cont.) Total Income Married Home LV <$40k $40k to $75k $75k+ Yes No Yes No Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Index More Spending Less Next Same Month Not sure Add exp Yes shortfall No days Not sure $ After Yes Debt Pay No Not sure $ Left v. Last Month More Less Same Not sure None Mos Hold One Lifestyle Two Income Three Lost Four Five Six Not sure
11 Category Spending Gender, Age Spending in Next Month on Household Expenses Gender Age Sep Aug Sep Aug M F M F More Less Same Not sure Spending Next Month on Discretionary Entertainment Exp. More Less Same Not sure Spending Next Month on Household Improvements More Less Same Not sure Spending in Next Month on Major Personal Purchases More Less Same Not sure Next Month - Save/Invest More, Less or About the Same More Less Same Not sure
12 Category Spending Income, Married Spending in Next Month on Household Expenses Income Married Home Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug <40k 40-75k >75k <40k 40-75k >75k Y N Y N Y N Y N More Less Same Not sure Spending in Next Month on Disc. Entertainment Exp. More Less Same Not sure Spending in Next Month on Household Improvements More Less Same Not sure Spending in Next Month on Major Personal Purchases More Less Same Not sure Next Month - Save/Invest More, Less or About the Same More Less Same Not sure
13 Higher Food Prices Gender, Age Concerned about higher food prices? Gender Age Sep Aug Sep Aug M F M F Very Somewhat Not Very Not at all Not sure Has concern caused you to reduce spending? Yes No Not sure In what areas did you reduce spending first? How often each week do you eat away from home? Grocery spending Eating out Entertainment Major purchases Savings Other Not Sure Rarely or never Once Twice Three times More than three times Not sure
14 Higher Food Prices Gender, Age Are you eating away from home Gender Age Sep Aug Sep Aug M F M F More often Less often About the same Not sure When you eat out, do you Choose cheaper place Choose cheaper meals Order less Not sure
15 Higher Food prices Income, Married Income Married Home Sep Aug Sep Aug Sep Aug Concerned about higher food prices? <40k 40-75k >75k <40k 40-75k >75k Y N Y N Y N Y N Very Somewhat Not Very Not at all Not sure Has concern caused Yes you to reduce No spending? Not sure In what areas did you reduce spending first? How often each week do you eat away from home? Grocery Eating out Entertainment Major Purch Savings Other Not sure Rare, never Once Twice Three times > Three times Not sure
16 Higher Food prices Income, Married Income Married Home Sep Sep Sep Aug Are you eating away from home When you eat out, do you choose <40k 40-75k >75k Y N Y N Y N More often Less often Same Not sure Cheaper place Cheaper meal Less food Not sure
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