Challenges Facing the Retail Real Estate Industry
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- Clementine Underwood
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1 ICSC Research Department The Retail and Real Estate Cycles Challenges Facing the Retail Real Estate Industry There is Good News and Bad News Michael P. Niemira Vice President, Chief Economist & Director of Research International Council of Shopping Centers 1221 Avenue of the Americas, 41 st Floor New York, New York NABE Philadelphia Chapter November 1, 29
2 Highlights Background on the Shopping-Center Industry Two Cycles with Two Stories Essential Spending Still Theme => Bargain Hunting Holiday-Spending Trends => 29 Different Shopping-Center Perspective => Holiday Much Better Holiday Survey => More Important Black Friday 29 Katona and Diderot Effects & More => Encouraging ICSC Consumer Spending Forecast => Recovering
3 Today Shopping Centers Represent a Little Less Than Half of Total Retail Space, But in 197 Centers Represented about 3% of all Retail Space 11 Number of U.S. Shopping-Center Properties Number Number All Centers 4 Source: CoStar -1-
4 Retail Property Growth Has Been Slowing Since 26 5 Growth Rate in the Number of U.S. Shopping-Center Properties % Change % Change All Centers -2-
5 There are Over 14, Shopping Centers in the United States -3- Measure Shopping Center Count By Size (Number of Centers) 44,35 5,54 57,835 65,933 76,882 81,423 87,79 89,163 9,465 92,39 94,37 96,561 99,288 11,729 13,45 14,74 Number of Centers over 5, Square Feet 1,255 13,211 16,127 19,26 23,665 26,116 28,922 29,478 29,98 3,526 31,14 31,72 32,333 32,93 33,45 33,58 Malls (Number) ,117 1,186 1,263 1,289 1,34 1,317 1,327 1,344 1,358 1,369 1,386 1,394 Regional Super Regional Open Air Centers (Number) 43,965 49,933 57,16 64,972 75,765 8,237 86,527 87,874 89,161 9,722 92,71 95,217 97,93 1,36 12,64 12,68 Strip/Convenience 31,553 34,428 38,323 42,788 48,481 5,298 53,386 54,112 54,829 55,766 57,67 58,816 6,718 62,456 63,525 63,94 Neighborhood 9,78 11,34 13,79 16,383 19,86 21,329 23,246 23,61 23,934 24,299 24,7 25,133 25,57 25,935 26,24 26,346 Community 2,669 3,423 4,56 4,821 6,161 6,92 7,658 7,85 7,943 8,11 8,274 8,471 8,679 8,86 9,31 9,11 Lifestyle Power Center ,374 1,461 1,527 1,599 1,667 1,759 1,857 1,943 2,37 2,72 Theme/Festival Outlet Special Purpose (Number) Airport Retail Total Leasable Area in Shopping Centers (Square Feet, Million) 2,125 2,746 3,336 3,92 4,799 5,315 5,95 6,91 6,21 6,339 6,486 6,651 6,828 6,985 7,137 7,194 Share of Total Retail Space (%) in Shopping Centers 29.1% 33.6% 36.9% 39.7% 43.3% 44.7% 46.% 46.3% 46.5% 46.7% 47.% 47.4% 47.7% 47.9% 48.1% 48.1% Malls (Shares of Total Shopping Center Gross Leasable Area (GLA) 15.7% 19.4% 21.3% 2.8% 19.5% 18.6% 17.8% 17.7% 17.6% 17.3% 17.% 16.8% 16.5% 16.2% 16.% 16.% Regional 5.7% 6.5% 7.2% 7.2% 7.% 6.7% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.% 6.% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% Super Regional 1.% 12.9% 14.1% 13.6% 12.5% 11.9% 11.5% 11.4% 11.3% 11.1% 11.% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% Open Air Centers (Share of Total Shopping Center GLA) 84.6% 8.9% 79.% 79.2% 8.4% 81.2% 82.% 82.1% 82.2% 82.5% 82.7% 82.9% 83.2% 83.4% 83.6% 83.7% Strip/Convenience 24.8% 21.3% 19.9% 19.4% 18.4% 17.4% 16.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% Neighborhood 29.9% 3.% 3.7% 31.4% 31.5% 3.9% 3.2% 3.% 29.9% 29.8% 29.6% 29.3% 29.% 28.7% 28.4% 28.3% Community 21.8% 22.1% 21.6% 21.9% 23.5% 24.% 23.9% 23.9% 23.8% 23.8% 23.9% 23.8% 23.8% 23.7% 23.7% 23.6% Lifestyle 1.%.8%.7%.8%.7%.7%.8%.9% 1.% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.% Power Center 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 5.2% 6.7% 8.8% 9.2% 9.5% 9.8% 1.% 1.4% 1.7% 11.% 11.4% 11.5% Theme/Festival.5%.5%.5%.5%.5%.5%.6%.6%.6%.6%.6%.6%.6%.6%.6%.7% Outlet.4%.3%.3%.4%.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Special Purpose (Share of Total Shopping Center GLA) Airport Retail.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.%.%.% Copyright, CoStar Realty Information, Inc. ( November 9, 29 U.S. Shopping Center Industry
6 Aggregate Composition of Shopping-Center Space Share of Total U.S. Shopping-Center Counts Strip/Convenience Centers Total Retail Gross Leasable Area in the United States.6%.4%.% Community Centers 8.7%.4% Neighborhood Centers 25.3% 61.4% Super Regional Mall.3% 2.% Power Centers.8% Regional Malls Airport Retail Community Center Lifestyle Center Neighborhood Center Outlet Center Power Center Regional Mall Strip/Convenience Super Regional Mall Theme/Festival Center -4-
7 -5-
8 Distinguishing Characteristics of Center Types -6-
9 Liquidity Dries Up 2 Holders of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loans CMBS Flow, Billions of Dollars 2 Billions of Dollars Non-residential Commercial CMBS Use Soared in Billions of Dollars Non-Residential (Commercial) CMBS Multifamily CMBS Retail Real Estate Accounted for About a Quarter to a Third of the Total Borrowings -7-
10 Where are the Sources of Money Today for Real Estate? -7A-
11 The Maturity Time Bomb -7B-
12 1 8 6 Net Percentage of U.S. Bankers Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans Q4 28 Reading Highest Since Survey Question Introduced in Net Percentage Net Percentage Source: Senior Loan Officers Survey, Federal Reserve Board Net Percentage of U.S. Bankers Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans Commercial Real Estate Borrowing Drops Net Percentage Net Percentage Source: Senior Loan Officers Survey, Federal Reserve Board
13 Hitting Bottom? 8 Shopping Center-Construction Spending % Change (Year/Year) % Change (Year/Year) Shopping-Center Construction Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC. -9-
14 Vacancy Rate Hit a High of 11% in Q Overall Shopping-Center Vacancy Rate Percentage Percentage Vacancy Rate (%) Source: NCREIF -1-
15 Commercial Real Estate Risks Statement of the Problem August 26: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart's prepared remarks for delivery to the Chattanooga Area Chamber of Commerce, said that "commercial real estate weakness poses a serious potential risk to the economic recovery and to the banking system." He went on to noted, "Commercial real estate values that is, collateral values for loans are being revised down materially by the potent combination of increased vacancy, rent reductions, and appropriately higher capitalization rates," he said. "Further, there is a clear link between employment trends (positive and negative) and commercial real estate trends." -11-
16 Federal Reserve officials have been increasingly more vocal about the risk to the economy from commercial real estate. How would you rate the commercial real estate risks facing the economy today? Percentage Reporting ICSC Industry Leaders Weighed in September Extremely High High Moderate Low Very Low Worry is High More than a quarter think risk is extremely high, which could lead to a double-dip dip recession. 82 Trustees Responding Responses -12-
17 Debt Refinancing: Actions and Future Needs Based on 39 Respondents Mean (Average) Median Mode What percentage ( to 1%) of your debt have you refinanced over the last two years? 21.7% What percentage of your debt do you need to finance over the next three years? 31.7%
18 The Commercial Real Estate Side of the Retail Real Estate Industry Has Not Hit Bottom That is Likely to Be Seen in 21. The Retail Side of the Retail Real Estate Industry is Poised for Recovery. -14-
19 The Retail Trends and Outlook
20 In Search for Discretionary Dollars -16- Essential Spending Grows as Share of Total Spending % Share % Share ESSENTIAL = Personal Interest Payments, Services, Food, Clothing and Shoes and Gasoline Share of Total Consumption Energy Expenditures as Share of Total Spending % Share 4 4 % Share Share of Total Consumption 1
21 32 31 Holiday Spending is Not as Important November-December-January GAFO Sales as Share of Annual Sales Record Low 28 Holiday Share of Annual Sales 28 Marked Record Low % of Annual % of Annual 28 Extended Holiday Season Likely to Change Dramatically in 29
22 % of Annual Focus: November-December Spending November-December Clothing & Accessory Sales as Share of Annual Sales Shifting Importance of Christmas Sales Clothing % of Annual -18- November-December Electronics & Appliance Store Sales as Share of Annual Sales Shifting Importance of Christmas Sales % of Annual Electronics % of Annual % of Annual November-December Mail Order & Internet Sales as Share of Annual Sales Shifting Importance of Christmas Sales Internet & Mail Order % of Annual % of Annual November-December GAFO Sales as Share of Annual Sales Shifting Importance of Christmas Sales GAFO % of Annual
23 Focus: January Spending January GAFO Sales as Share of Annual Sales Shifting Importance of January Sales % of Annual % of Annual Note: Share of Fiscal Year (Feb-Jan) Sales
24 -2- Gift-Card Impact on the Shopping Season Gift Card Benchmarks In 29, Holiday Expenditures in the Form of a Gift Card: 14-15% In In In In In In ICSC Research expectation for 29 season 15% expected
25 A View from the Shopping-Center Industry -21- U.S. Holiday-Sales Expectations What are Your Holiday-Season Sales Expectations (Percentage Growth) Compared With the Previous year? Much Higher 3.3%.% 4.% Higher 36.7% 2.9% 32.% Same 36.7% 11.4% 28.% Lower 23.3% 65.7% 24.% Much Lower.% 2.% 12.% NET Higher 16.7% -82.8%.% Sales: Actual/Forecast 2.1% -3.5% 1.8% Source: ICSC Shopping Center Executive Survey. ICSC Research Forecast for Shopping-Center Sales (Nov-Dec) Year-over-Year Pace.
26 29 Consumer Survey About Holiday-Spending Intentions -22- Spending Shifts in 29 Toward: (1) Consumer Electronics; (2) Housewares; and (3) Music, CDs and DVDs Black Friday Takes on New Importance Bargain Hunting High Priority Gift cards still the gift of last resort
27 Likely Influencing Luxury Spending Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index JAN 2 1 NOV 1 SEP 21 1 JUL 22 1 MAY 23 1 MAR 24 1 JAN 25 1 NOV 1 SEP 26 1 JUL 27 1 MAY 28 1 MAR
28 Surprisingly Upbeat Message Real Average Weekly Earnings (Shifted 6-Months Ahead) vs. Real Consumer Spending 6 % Change (Year/Year, 3-Mo. Averages) % Change (Year/Year, 3-Mo. Averages) Real AWE (Left Scale) Consumer Spending/CPI (Right Scale)
29 Other Consumer Issues
30 Consumer Borrowing (Less Mortgages) Real Non-Mortgage Consumer Borrowing 15 Consumer Instalment & HEL, % Change Y/Y Consumer Instalment & HEL, % Change Y/Y Deflated by CPI Less Food & Energy Note: Shaded Areas Represent Classical Business Cycle Recessions as Defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. There was no consumer borrowing binge during this last cycle.
31 -27- The Katona Effect and U.S. Consumer Spending Volatility in the Consumer Price Level Inverted. 1 Volatility in the Price Level % Change (SMSAR with a Filter) Price Level Volatility on Left Scale Real Consumer Spending Growth (Smoothed) on Right Scale
32 -28-2 Home Demand as a Trigger for the Diderot Effect Nine-Month Lead Time 1 % Change from Prior Year (12/12) % Change from Prior Year (12/12) Home Demand (Left Scale) Retail Sales (Right Scale)
33 -29- Fourth Quarter Likely to Post Gain 4 Retail E-Commerce Sales Online Sales Not Click'n Either 4 % Change from Prior Year % Change from Prior Year
34 -3- Forecasts 15 Shopping Center-Inclined Sales vs. Total Retail Sales % Change (Year/Year) % Change (Year/Year) Shopping-Center-Inclined Sales Total Retail Sales Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research.
35 "Traditional" Holiday Season Spending Billions of Dollars, November-December Periods, Not Seasonally Adjusted Category Forecast GAFO Store Sales $24.3 $26.3 $216. $227.2 $239.3 $248.6 $252.8 $239.5 $241.8 % Change Electronics & Appliances % Change Appliances, T.V. & camera % Change Computer & software stores % Change Clothing and Accessory Stores % Change Men's clothing stores % Change Women's clothing stores % Change Shoe stores % Change Sporting Good, Hobby, Book & Music % Change General Merchandise % Change Dept stores (ex. leased depts) % Change Other general merchandise stores % Change Warehouse clubs & superstores % Change All other general merchandise % Change Electronic shopping & mail-order % Change Shopping Center-Inclined Sales % Change Online & Mail-Orders/S-C Sales PLUS (% Share) Chain Store Sales Index (% Change) Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research. -31-
36 "Extended" Holiday Season Spending Billions of Dollars, November-January Periods, Not Seasonally Adjusted Category Forecast GAFO Store Sales $267.6 $271.5 $286.7 $3.3 $318. $331.3 $336.9 $322.8 $327.9 % Change Electronics & Appliances % Change Appliances, T.V. & camera % Change Computer & software stores % Change Clothing and Accessory Stores % Change Men's clothing stores % Change Women's clothing stores % Change Shoe stores % Change Sporting Good, Hobby, Book & Music % Change General Merchandise % Change Dept stores (ex. leased depts) % Change Other general merchandise stores % Change Warehouse clubs & superstores % Change All other general merchandise % Change Electronic shopping & mail-order % Change Shopping Center-Inclined Sales % Change Online & Mail-Orders/S-C Sales PLUS (% Share) Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; ICSC Research. -32-
37 U.S. Retail Sales Outlook (Billions of Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted, Seasonally Adjusted) Annual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Category 27 H2 28 H1 28 H2 29 H1 29 H Total Sales & Food Services % Change from Prior Year Total Sales & Food Services Ex Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers % Change from Prior Year Total Retail Sales % Change from Prior Year Motor Vehicle % Change from Prior Year Furniture & Home Furnishings % Change from Prior Year Electronics & Appliances % Change from Prior Year Building Materials, Garden & Supply % Change from Prior Year Food and Beverage % Change from Prior Year Health & Personal Care % Change from Prior Year Gasoline Service Stations % Change from Prior Year Clothing and Accessory Stores % Change from Prior Year Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music % Change from Prior Year General Merchandise % Change from Prior Year Miscellaneous Stores % Change from Prior Year Nonstore Retailers % Change from Prior Year Food Services % Change from Prior Year Addendum: Total Retail Sales Less Motor Vehicle and Gasoline % Change from Prior Year Total Less Gasoline % Change from Prior Year Shopping Center-Inclined Sales % Change from Prior Year NRF-Concept of Industry Sales % Change from Prior Year
38 Thank You
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