Consumer Price Index. October Contact Statistician: Phaladi Labobedi
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1 Consumer Price Index October Contact Statistician: Phaladi Labobedi. Private Bag 0024 Gaborone Botswana Tel: (+267) Toll Free: Fax: (+267) Website:
2 2 CONTENTS SECTION 1: Headline Inflation...3 SECTION 2: Core Inflation...3 GLOSSARY...13 CHARTS CHART 1: National Rates Of Inflation CHART 2: Monthly Changes In the Consumer Price Index... 4 CHART 3: Non-Tradeables Inflation Rates CHART 4: Tradeables Inflation Rates TABLES TABLE 1: Consumer Price Index (September 2016 =100.0)...5 TABLE 2: National Consumer Price Group & Section Indices (September 2016 = 100.0)...7 TABLE 3: Consumer Price Index by Tradeability (September 2016 = 100.0)...9 TABLE 4: Core Inflation Rates by Exclusion and Trimmed Mean...10 TABLE 5: Average Annual Inflation (October 2016 = 100.0)...11
3 3 COMMENTARY Section 1: Headline Inflation The annual inflation rate in October was 3.6 percent, registering an increase of 0.7 of a percentage point on the September rate of 2.9 percent. The inflation rates for regions between September and October showed that Cities & Towns rose to 4.4 percent from 3.6 percent, Urban Villages went up to 3.4 percent from 2.7 percent and Rural Villages also went up to 2.5 percent from 2.0 percent. The national Consumer Price Index moved to in October, registering an increase of 0.7 percent from 106.2, which was recorded in September. The Cities & Towns Index realised a rise of 0.8 percent moving from in September to in October. The Urban Villages Index advanced from to registering an increase of 0.6 percent. The Rural Villages Index rose by 0.6 percent, moving from in September to in October. Group indices were mostly moving at a steady pace between September and October, recording changes of less than 1.0 percent, except the Transport index group which showed an increase of 3.5 percent. The Transport group index registered an increase of 3.5 percent, from in September to in October. This was mainly attributed to an increase in the constituent section index of Operation of Personal Transport (5.6 percent) and Purchase of Vehicles (1.7 percent). The increase in Operation of Personal Transport section index was due to the rise in retail pump prices of petrol and diesel by P0.65 and P0.73 per litre respectively, which effected on 15th October. The Miscellaneous Goods & Services group Index moved from in September to in October, recording a decline of 0.5 percent. The decline owed to the decrease in the section indices, notably; Insurance (0.6 percent) and Personal Effects Not Elsewhere Classified (0.5 percent). The Recreation & Culture group Index registered a decrease of 0.4 percent, moving from in September to in October, The drop was attributed to the decline in the section indices, particularly, Audio Visual, Photographic & Information Processing Equipment (0.5 percent) and Recreational Items & Equipment (0.2 percent). The All-Tradeables index advanced from in September to in October, registering an increase of 1.1 percent. The Imported Tradeables Index recorded an increase of 1.6 percent, moving from in September to in October. The Domestic Tradeables Index realized a drop of 0.1 percent over the two. All-Tradeables inflation rate was 3.3 percent in October, recording a rise of 1.2 percentage points on the September rate of 2.1 percent. The Imported Tradeables inflation rate went up from 2.9 percent in September to 4.5 percent in October, The Domestic Tradeables inflation rate went up from 0.6 percent in September to 0.7 percent in October. Section 2: Core Inflation The Trimmed Mean Core Inflation rate in October was 3.7 percent, a rise of 0.8 of a percentage point on the September rate of 2.9 percent. The Core Inflation rate by exclusion remained unchanged at 1.6 percent, during the period under review.
4 4 CHARTS 4 Chart 1: National Inflation Rate Chart 2: Monthly Changes in Consumer Price Index Percent Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Period Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Percent Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Period Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Chart 4: Tradeables Inflation Chart 3: Non-Tradeables Inflation Percent Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Period Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Percent Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Period Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Dr. Burton S. Mguni Statistician General 15 th November
5 5 TABLES TABLE 1: COST OF LIVING INDEX (September 2016 =100.0) Food Alcohol and Tobacco Clothing and Footwear Housing Furniture etc Health Transport Rec. & Culture Education Rest. & Hotels Communication Miscellaneous Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 103,6 104,8 102,6 105,1 102,8 102,0 101,4 100,3 102,2 104,2 103,3 102,6 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct % Change on Last month (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.0) (0.4) (0.5)
6 6 TABLE 1: COST OF LIVING INDEX (Cont.) All Items Index National Inflation Rate Monthly Change Towns & Cities Index Urban Village Index Rural Villages Index Annual Inflation Towns & Cities Urban Villages % % % % % 2016 Jan Feb (0.0) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Rural 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 103,0 3,4 0,1 102,9 102,9 103,3 3,5 3,2 3,7 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug (0.0) Sept Oct % Change on last month
7 7 TABLE 2 :NATIONAL COST-OF-LIVING GROUP AND SECTION INDICES (SEPTEMBER 2016=100.0) Group Section Weights This month Oct Last month Sep 3 July 6 Apr 12 Oct 2017 on: Last month Percentage Change Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (0.2) (0.7) (1.2) (1.1) 1.1 Bread & Cereals (0.5) (1.5) (3.0) (5.6) 1.2 Meat (Fresh, Chilled & Frozen) (0.3) (0.5) (0.6) Fish (Fresh, Chilled & Frozen) Milk, Cheese & Milk Products Oils & Fats (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) 1.6 Fruit (0.2) (0.9) (1.6) Vegetables (0.2) (1.8) (2.8) Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate & Confectionery (0.3) (1.4) (1.3) 1.9 Food not else where Classified (0.8) (0.2) Coffee, Tea & Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruits & Veg. Juices Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Alcoholic Beverages Tobacco Clothing and Footwear (0.1) (0.1) Clothing (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) Other articles of Clothing (0.0) Cleaning, Repair & Hire Footwear (0.2) (0.4) (0.0) Housing, Water, Electr. Gas & Other Fuels Rent paid by Tenants Materials for Maintenance & Repair of dwellings (0.1) Water Supply & Misc. Services Electricity Gas and other Fuels Furnishing, H/H Equipment& Routine Maintenance Furniture & Furnishing Carpets & Other Floor Coverings (0.1) Household Textiles Household Appliances (0.1) (0.2) 0.1 (0.0) 5.5 Glassware, Tableware & Household Utensils Small Tools, Miscelaneous Accessories Goods & Services for H/hold Maintanance
8 8 TABLE 2 :NATIONAL COST-OF-LIVING GROUP AND SECTION INDICES (SEPTEMBER 2016=100.0) Cont d Group Section Weights This month Oct Last month Sep 3 July 6 Apr 12 Oct 2017 on: Last month Percentage Change Health Medical Products, App. & Equip Out-patient Services (0.1) (0.0) Hospital Services Transport Purchase of Vehicles Operation of Personal Transport Transport Services Communication (0.0) 0.0 (9.2) (9.1) 8.1 Postal Services Telephone & Telefax Equipment Telephone & Telefax Services (0.0) (0.0) (11.7) (11.7) 9 Recreation & Culture (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) Audio Visual, Photographic & Info. Proce. Equip (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) Other Recreational Items & Equip (0.2) (0.3) Recreational & Cultural Services Newspapers, Books & Stationary Education Pre-Primary & Primary Education Secondary & Tertiary Education Restaurants & Hotels Restaurants, Cafes and the Like Accommodation Services Miscellaneous Goods & Services (0.5) (0.6) (0.3) Personal Care (0.3) (0.1) Personal Effects N.E.C (0.5) (0.8) (0.4) Social Protection Insurance (0.6) (1.0) (0.7) Financial Services Taxes Licences, Fees (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) 0.9 All-Items Index
9 9 TABLE 3: COST-OF-LIVING INDEX BY TRADABILITY (September 2016 = 100.0) All Items Non-Tradable Domestic Tradable Imported Tradable All Tradable Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 103,0 3,4 103,1 3,7 103,4 3,8 102,7 3,0 103,0 3,3 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct % Change on last month 0.7 (0.1) (0.1)
10 10 TABLE 4: Core Inflation Rates by Exclusion and Trimmed Mean Year Month Consumer Price Index (Trimmed Mean) (September 2016 = 100) Core Monthly Inflation Rate (Trimmed Mean) (percentage) Consumer Price Index (Excluding Administered Prices) (September 2016 = 100) Core Monthly Inflation (Excluding Administered Prices) (percentage) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct
11 11 Table 5: Average Annual Inflation ( September 2016=100) Group Weights Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages,Tobacco & Narcotics Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Electr. Gas & Other Fuels Furnishing, H/H Equipment& Routine Maintenance Health Transport (8.4) (5.1) (2.7) Communication 4.27 (5.1) (0.3) (0.3) 1.2 (3.0) (1.4) Recreation & Culture 2.92 (1.8) Education Restaurants & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services All-Items Index
12 12 CPI Area Coverage CPI AREA COVERAGE ± Kasane Shakawe Pandamatenga Gumare Charles Hill Ghanzi Tsau Maun Sehithwa Rakops Mopipi Nata Tutume Masunga Tshesebe " Francistown Letlhakane Tonota Serule Selebi Phikwe " Bobonong Tsetsebjwe Serowe Palapye Ratholo Mahalapye Machaneng Kang Hukuntsi Mabutsane KhakheaJwaneng Werda Letlhakeng Artesia Lentsweletau Molepolole Mochudi Sikwane " Manyana " Mogobane Gaborone Ramotswa Kanye " Good HopePitsane Lobatse Tsabong Legend " City " Towns Major Villages Rivers Main Roads Secondary Roads Railway Kilometers Swamp Compiled and Prepared by, 2016
13 13 GLOSSARY Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index which measures price changes in goods and services with reference to a base period. Inflation is a measurement of prices movement of goods and services in a particular country. Domestic Tradable refers to the goods and services which a country (Botswana) can export to other countries. Imported Tradable represents the goods and services which a country (Botswana) imports from other countries (trading partners). Non-Tradable refers to the goods and services which a country cannot either export or import to other countries. All Tradable refers to the total of Domestic and Imported tradable. Trimmed Mean Core Inflation- attempts to remove 8 percent (by weight) of the commodity sub-groups with the largest price changes at each of the ends of an ordered series of price changes in any given month. Core inflation by Exclusion is a measure used to remove the volatility inherent in prices that are only adjusted periodically and not always in response to currently prevailing market forces.
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