US Lodging Industry Overview. Amanda W. Hite President STR

Transcription

1 US Lodging Industry Overview Amanda W. Hite President STR

2 Agenda Total US Review Scales Segmentation Pipeline 2012 / 2013 Forecast

3 Total US Review

4 Supply / Demand Drive Results. Pricing Power Is Back (?) % Change Room Supply* 727 mm 0.3% Room Demand* 430 mm 3.5% Occupancy 59% 3.2% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $62 7.5% Room Revenue* $45 bn 7.9% YTD May 2012, Total US Results * All Time High

5 YTD May 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (430 Million Rooms Sold)

6 Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue 8 8.0% 4 4.0% 0-0.9% -4 Supply Demand - 4.7% -6.9% *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012

7 ADR Rebound Trajectory Flattens Out (Too?) Early 5 4.0% -0.2% 0-0.9% -5 Demand ADR -4.7% -4.6% -6.9% -8.7% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012

8 ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases 110 Sept 08 $ % Dec 11 $ Months Apr 10 $97 19 Months +4.6% *Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA

9 Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach Nominal ADR 2007 ADR Grown By CPI $ / 2007 Grown by CPI $107 $ ADR Grown By CPI $85 $85 $104 $107 $ F 2013F * Total US, ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, F CPI from bls.gov, CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

10 ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult) Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 * Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 5/12

11 Chain Scale Review

12 Scales: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, YTD May 12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

13 Good Beginning to Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, YTD May 12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

14 Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night Months end 5/ Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute OCC %, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

15 ADR Growth Is Strong But Not Strong Enough (...yet) $293 $ Months end 5/12 $159 $150 $121 $114 $94 $95 $75 $73 $54 $51 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute ADR $, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification

16 Segmentation Review

17 Transient Demand Breaks Records, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

18 Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results $ $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

19 We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 *Transient ADR % by Month, 1/11 5/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

20 Group Demand Has Not Changed Over Time, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

21 Group ADRs Still Depressed (& Could Dampen Future Absolute ADRs) $ $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

22 Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr *Group ADR % by Month, 1/11 4/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

23 Pipeline

24 Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012 Phase May 2012 May 2011 Dec 2007 In Construction Planned Pipeline Active Pipeline *Total US Pipeline, in 000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge

25 Upscale / Upper Midscale Sees Activity Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *Rooms In Construction by Scale ( 000s), 5/12 Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge

26 2012 / 2013 Forecast

27 Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4%

28 Hotel Industry Forecasts STR Revisions 2012 Demand ADR ALIS NYU HDC Hotel Show ALIS

29 2012 Scale Forecast Is Closer To Guidance Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury +2.6% +5.1% +7.9% Upper Upscale +1.5% +4.2% +5.7% Upscale +2.3% +4.6% +7.1% Upper Midscale +1.4% +4.0% +5.5% Midscale +2.8% +1.4% +4.3% Economy +1.4% +3.1% +4.5% Independent +0.5% +3.5% +4.0% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5% *Key Performance Indicator Forecast, by Scale, 2012

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