Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of. Project co-ordinator: Dr. Wolfgang Schade

Transcription

1 Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Project co-ordinator: Dr. Wolfgang Schade w. schade@isi. fraunhofer. de

2 Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets TREMOVE Lars Akkermans Transport & Mobility Leuven Lars.Akkermans@tmleuven.be

3 Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD GHG transpord TREMOVE 3

4 Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 4

5 TREMOVE what is it? Policy assessment model Transport Environment Estimates: Transport demand Modal split Vehicle stock Emissions Welfare EU27+CH, NO, TR, HR Coded in GAMS Uses six s Transport demand Vehicle stock turnover Fuel consumption and emissions i Welfare cost cost Lifetime emissions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 5

6 TREMOVE history Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE model 6

7 TREMOVE Developed by : KUL, DRI For : European Commission, DG ENV Application in Auto-Oil II programme Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Vehicle emission standards Fuel quality standards Non-technical measures Public transport subsidies, scrappage, Fuel taxes TREMOVE training - Duke University 7

8 TREMOVE 1 Only road transport Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Stock structure Cost Fuel consumption Only exhaust emissions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 8

9 TREMOVE 1 model with annual intervals Base case scenario Exogenous demand based on national transport models Endogenous fleet evolution Simulation scenario Also demand is endogenous, depending on policy, no optimalisation GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 9

10 TREMOVE GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 10

11 TREMOVE Developed by : TML, KUL et al. For : European Commission DG ENV Cost-effectiveness analysis of : EURO 5 standards Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) Maritime policies (aftertreatment, ) Plane taxes Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 11

12 TREMOVE Road, rail, inland ship All transport modes Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions Updates :e.g. car sale data, COPERT 4 Well-to-tank emissions TREMOVE training - Duke University 12

13 TREMOVE Demand, fleet and well-to-wheel wheel emission modelling for all modes with annual intervals Base case scenario Exogenous demand d based on SCENES Endogenous fleet evolution Simulation scenario Also demand is endogenous, depending on policy GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 13

14 TREMOVE GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 14

15 TREMOVE summer 2007 Development : by TML For : European Commission, DG ENV Runs : by Univ. Thessaloniki Cost-effectiveness analysis of : EURO VI standards Eurovignette (internalisation ext. costs) GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 15

16 TREMOVE 2.52 Restructured (e.g. choice between truck types) Extension to 2030 Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions More detailed cost modelling trucks GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 16

17 TREMOVE GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 17

18 TREMOVE 2.7 Released November 2007 Development by TML For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Km-charging policies (road and other modes) Can be executed without software licenses GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 18

19 TREMOVE 2.7 Added : Accidents, noise, infrastructure wear & tear Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 19

20 TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, Development by TML and TRT TML also developed the EDIP model GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 20

21 TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT SCENES base case transport forecast replaced by TRANSTOOLS Link is developed, but not applied in REFIT Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 21

22 TREMOVE 3.1 : Sustainable use of cars For JRC-IPTS TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI New car materials Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model 4 Policy simulations : Promoting smaller & lighter cars Accelerated scrappage & replacement GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 22

23 TREMOVE 3.2 : itren EC FP6 itren-2030 (coordinator : ISI) Developing a common 2030 forecast with : TRANSTOOLS POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC- IPTS,TRT) ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) Automated data exchange with TRANS- TOOLS Extension with new car technologies Hydrogen Electric GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 23

24 TREMOVE 3.2 : itren Transport performance VKT TRANS- TOOLS v2 Multi-modal trans port network model Vehicle-km travelled (VKT) Passengers-km Tonnes-km Emissions Vehicle fleet structure TREMOVE Environmental impact model and vehicle fleet model Trans port policy Vehicle technology External scenarios Trans port policy TEN - Investments E xternal scenarios AS TR A Integrated economy-trans portenvironment model Economic development E mployment Economic development Energy prices, Trade in primary energy sources, Investments Energy prices POLES World energy model Energy prices Technology paths Transport energy demand, Vehicle fleetstructure Energy policy E nergy technology E xternal scenarios Legend: Model Model purpos e Policy and technology inputs Main model outputs GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 24

25 TREMOVE 3.3: 3: Update Currently distributed version Data collection projects as input to TREMOVE: FLEETS (road) EX-TREMIS (rail, air, maritime) Scenario development parallel to itren (demand d baseline) GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 25

26 TREMOVE: future Electric vehicles 2nd hand market Sensitivity checks Update transport emissions social aspects GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 26

27 Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 27

28 TREMOVE structure Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE 28

29 Transport demand Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE 29

30 Transport demand The transport demand describes transport flows and the users decision making process when it comes to making their modal choice. Starting from the baseline level of demand for passenger and freight transport per mode, the describes how the implementation of a policy measure (or a package of measures) will affect the baseline allocation of demand d across different modes and different vehicle categories. The output of the edemand d odueconsists sstsof passenger kilometres (pkm) and ton kilometres (tkm) that are demanded per vehicle category for a given policy environment GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 30

31 Transport demand The key assumption here is that the transport users will select the volume of transport and their preferred mode based on the generalized price for each mode. The generalized price is the sum of money price and time costs. To be more specific, the generalized price per pkm or tkm is the sum of three elements: 1. producer price (this is the price producers receive) 2. tax or subsidy 3. time cost per km traveled by a certain mode GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 31

32 Vehicle stock Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 32

33 Vehicle stock The vehicle stock describes the evolution of the vehicle stock for the different vehicle types and categories. The output from the transport demand (pkm & tkm per mode) is used as input for the vehicle stock. Output is vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology,road type and time period (use of nested tables under the assumption of constant elasticity of substitution) GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 33

34 Vehicle stock 1. Road vehicles example 2. Rail vehicles 3. Inland ships 4. Planes 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 34

35 Road vehicle information Road vehicle categories Road vehicle types GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 35

36 Road vehicle categories MOP : moped MOC : motorcycle Transport demand Vehicle-km CAR : car VAN : van BUS : bus LDT : light duty vehicle HDT1 : heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HDT2 : heavy duty truck ton HDT3 : heavy duty truck ton HDT4 : heavy duty truck >32 ton 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 36

37 Road vehicle types PCDB : car >2.0l - diesel PCDM : car l - diesel PCDS : car <1.4l - diesel PCGB : car >2.0l - petrol PCGM : car l - petrol Car PCGS : car <1.4l - petrol PCGB_CNG CNG : car >2.0l - CNG PCGM_CNG : car l - CNG PCGS_CNG : car <1.4l - CNG PCL : car - LPG 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 37

38 Road vehicle types Light duty vehicle LTD : light duty truck - diesel LTG : light duty truck - petrol Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD1 : heavy duty truck t diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD2 : heavy duty truck t - diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD3 : heavy duty truck 16-32t - diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD4 : heavy duty truck >32t - diesel 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 38

39 Road vehicle information Additional information Age distribution Technology distribution Fleet turnover by category (year to year evolution) Car purchase choice (nested function) Fleet turnover by type GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 39

40 Vehicle-km by type and age Vehicle-km by vehicle category, road type, period (demand ) Fleet by type and age (~technology) Ratio : mileage of aged vehicle vs new Ratio : mileage of vehicle type vs category average Vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology by road type and time period 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 40

41 Other modes information Rail model: similar structure Air mode: no vehicle fleet modelling (demand passenger km by distance class - fuel consumtion and emissions ) Maritime mode: not included/calibrated in TREMOVE GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 41

42 cost Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 42

43 cost The usage cost is used to estimate the generalised price of transport. Based on the usage of vehicles, the structure of the vehicle stock and expected fuel consumption, a generalised price is estimated. For private vehicles, this results in a vehicle related price, network tax est. and time cost. For public transport, this results in ticket t prices and time costs. This output is looped back to the transport demand GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 43

44 Money price components By type By category By node Detailed calculation by Vehicle type Vehicle vintage Purchase cost Purchase VAT Registration tax Ownership tax Insurance cost Insurance tax i/ i Vehicle-related price Repair/maint. cost Repair/maint. Tax Fuel cost + Fuel tax Fuel VAT Driver labour cost Driver labour tax Network tax + Time cost 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 44

45 Money price components Public transport modes Input By category By node Tariff (SCENES) Other cost Cost Coverage VAT rate Other tax (subsidy) Other VAT Ticket price + Time Cost 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 45

46 Fuel consumption and emissions Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 46

47 Fuel consumptions and emissions The fuel consumptions and emissions is used to calculate fuel consumption and emissions, based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving i conditions. Outputs from the vehicle stock and fuel consumption and emissions s are fed back into the demand. As fuel consumption, stock structure and usage influence usage costs, they are important determinants of transport demand and modal split GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 47

48 Road vehicles Vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology Speed by region and time period Ambient temperature, Fuel Specifications, Energy Consumption & Emission Factors (draft Copert IV) Energy consumption (diesel, petrol, CNG, LPG, ethanol, biodiesel) Emissions (CO2, CO, C6H6, CH4, NOx, N2O, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) Exhaust (hot and cold) & Evaporative 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 48

49 Rail vehicles Vehicle-km by vehicle type and age by region and time period Energy Consumption & Emission Factors (TRENDS) Energy consumption (electricity, diesel) Exhaust emissions (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 49

50 Planes Pass.-km by distance class Detour factors Split LTO - Cruise (<> 3000 feet) Energy consumption and emission factors (TRENDS) Energy consumption (kerosene) Exhaust emissions (CO2, CO, C6H6, CH4, NOx, N2O, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 50

51 Life cycle emissions Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 51

52 Life cycle emissions The life cycle emissions enables to calculate emissions during production of fuels and electricity. it It also accounts for the effects of the use of (blended) biofuels. The output is used to calculate a complete welfare cost GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 52

53 Well-to-tank emissions Energy consumption by fuel type / Electricity WTT emission factors : - ECOinvent (non-ghg fossil fuels) - PRIMES (CO2 electricity) - RAINS (other electricity) - JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE CONCAWE (GHG all fuels) - MEET (non-ghg biofuels) Well-to-tank emissions to air (CO, CO, CH4, N2O, NMVOC, NOx, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 53

54 Welfare cost Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 54

55 Welfare cost Welfare effect of a policy measure = + Increase in consumer utility (consumers) Consumer surplus from utility function + Decrease costs of production (producers) Total production cost from production function + Extra tax revenues government (* 1+MCPF) + External Costs Emissions to air (tank-to-wheel) Accidents Noise Infrastructure wear & tear (Congestion - included automatically via generalised prices) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 55

56 Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 56

57 Model use examples Policy support What is the effect of a policy, or a group of policies, ie on transport t demand? On emissions? On the cost of transport? On the use of a specific vehicle type and technology? But it goes further than standard emissions or mobility estimations. TREMOVE can also be used to facilitate the estimation of road safety effects from technology introductions ti and policy decisions GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 57

58 Model use examples Company research Technology feasibility Fuel consumptions & emissions related estimations Vehicle type and technology introduction pick-up Identification of potential user groups and types. Database linking (data enrichment) GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 58

59 Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD GHG transpord TREMOVE 59

60 Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Thank you for your attention Lars Akkermans Transport & Mobility Leuven Lars.Akkermans@tmleuven.be