ESTIMATION RESULTS: THE DESIGN OF A COMPREHENSIVE MICROSIMULATOR OF HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE FLEET COMPOSITION, UTILIZATION, AND EVOLUTION

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1 ESTIMATION RESULTS: THE DESIGN OF A COMPREHENSIVE MICROSIMULATOR OF HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE FLEET COMPOSITION, UTILIZATION, AND EVOLUTION Rajesh Paleti The University of Texas at Austin Dept of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering 1 University Station C1761, Austin TX Phone: , Fax: , Naveen Eluru The University of Texas at Austin Dept of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering 1 University Station C1761, Austin TX Phone: , Fax: , Chandra R. Bhat* (corresponding author) The University of Texas at Austin Dept of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering 1 University Station C1761, Austin TX Phone: , Fax: , Ram M. Pendyala Arizona State University School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment Room ECG252, Tempe, AZ Phone: (480) , Fax: (480) , Thomas J. Adler Resource Systems Group, Inc. 55 Railroad Row, White River Junction, VT Phone: , Konstadinos G. Goulias University of California Department of Geography Santa Barbara, CA Phone: , Fax: ,

2 Table 1 Estimates of the Vehicle Type Choice Component of Vehicle Selection Module Variable Constant Purchase Price*10,000 ($) Fuel cost per gallon ($) Miles per Gallon /100 Fuel cost per year /10,000 ($) Maintenance cost per year/1000 ($) Acceleration Time (0 to 60 mph) Car pooling No vehicle Compact Car (CC) (-5.85) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Car (-9.04) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Small cross utility vehicle (SCU) (14.59) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) SUV (-15.43) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Van (-10.70) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Pickup (-11.91) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Gasoline (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Flex Fuel (-24.57) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Plug-in Hybrid (-16.31) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) CNG (-12.66) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Diesel (-19.11) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Hybrid Electric (-23.99) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Fully Electric (-12.53) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) New Car (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) 1 or 2 years (-7.45) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) 3 to 7 years (-13.45) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) 8 to 12 years (-17.58) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) > 12 years (-14.69) (-18.65) (-1.75) (13.74) (-10.23) (-2.34) (-3.60) (11.41) (12.37) Free parking 1

3 Variable Table 1 Estimates of the Vehicle Type Choice Component of Vehicle Selection Module (Continued) $1,000 Tax credits 50% Reduced toll $1,000 Vehicle price reduction Fuel availability (1 in 50 stations) Vehicle range (150 to 200 miles) Vehicle range (>200 miles) Number of male adults Number of female adults 0 to 4 years of children 5 to 11 years 12 to 15 years of senior adults No vehicle Compact Car (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (-1.86) Car (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (7.93) (5.07) SCU (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (-3.92) SUV (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (7.61) (7.61) (5.20) Van (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (3.80) (6.88) Pickup (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (8.31) Gasoline (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) Flex Fuel (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.87) Plug-in Hybrid (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-8.10) CNG (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) Diesel (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-4.30) (-2.55) (2.35) Hybrid Electric (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-8.10) (3.40) Fully Electric (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (2.86) (3.69) New Car (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) 1 or 2 years (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) 3 to 7 years (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (4.76) (-6.25) 8 to 12 yrs (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (-3.13) (4.76) (-6.25) > 12 years (12.90) (9.93) (10.62) (-1.45) (5.58) (5.97) (3.19) (-3.13) (4.76) (-6.25) 2

4 Variable # full time workers Table 1 Estimates of the Vehicle Type Choice Component of Vehicle Selection Module (Continued) # part time workers # full time workers from home # part time workers from home Household Income < $20K ($20K,$40K) ($40K,$60K) ($60K,$80K) ($80K,$100K) ($100K,$120K) > $120K College Education Attainment Post graduate No vehicle CC (1.70) (4.72) (4.72) (4.72) (6.64) (2.99) (4.39) Car (-2.27) (6.50) (4.02) (8.51) (8.51) (8.51) (11.09) SCU (5.27) (5.27) (5.27) 9.76 (3.03) SUV (1.68) (1.83) (2.25) (8.88) (8.88) 8.43 (11.52) (1.52) Van (1.68) (2.43) (3.42) (3.42) 3.41 (3.52) (2.44) (3.57) Pickup (2.94) (3.27) (5.51) (5.51) 5.12 (4.95) (-5.27) Gasoline Flex Fuel (-1.65) (2.42) (2.42) (1.99) Plug-in (-2.96) (-1.55) (2.69) (4.26) CNG (-1.69) (2.86) Diesel (1.40) (-5.07) (-5.07) (-2.55) Hybrid (2.40) (2.87) (2.87) (2.87) (2.87) (6.84) Fully (2.58) (2.70) New Car (4.00) (12.94) (12.94) (3.70) 1 or 2 years (2.90) (3.15) (2.37) (2.37) (2.37) (3.85) (3.85) (3.85) (-5.39) 3 to 7 years (6.53) (5.19) (2.37) (2.37) (2.37) (-5.39) 8 to 12 yrs (4.19) (4.19) (6.70) (4.33) (-3.81) (-5.39) >12 years (4.19) (4.19) (6.70) (4.33) (-3.81) (-5.39) 3

5 Variable Caucasian Table 1 Estimates of the Vehicle Type Choice Component of Vehicle Selection Module (Continued) Suburban Rural of CC 1 of Car Existing Fleet Characteristics of SCU 2 of SUV of Van of pickup Compact Car Replaced vehicle Characteristics SCU SUV Van Pickup Gasoline No vehicle CC (1.81) (-13.00) (-11.68) (-2.22) (-10.44) (2.82) (-4.41) (-8.82) (-3.41) (-6.29) (-8.54) (13.14) Car (2.69) (-12.60) (-10.44) (-1.69) (-4.36) (12.66) (4.45) (4.29) (-2.90) SCU (-4.25) (-5.40) (-4.95) (-3.67) (9.52) (3.03) SUV (3.50) (-10.13) (-9.24) (-9.17) (-1.69) (-3.72) (12.80) (6.55) Van (-6.77) (-5.77) (-9.17) (-3.68) (-2.15) (13.84) Pickup (5.92) (3.95) (-912) (-8.57) (-9.17) (-8.04) (-1.66) (5.09) (16.18) (-4.51) Gasoline (-4.39) (-10.50) (-3.20) (-5.32) Flex Fuel (-1.50) (10.51) (7.34) (15.40) (3.47) (-2.70) (3.85) Plug-in (-1.62) (-2.84) (12.28) (6.89) (15.40) (3.77) (2.76) (2.93) (-2.90) (3.86) CNG (-1.62) (3.46) (3.63) (4.53) Diesel (5.94) (12.04) (8.42) (8.16) (3.32) (3.61) (4.38) (2.55) (-3.86) Hybrid (-4.82) (2.25) (9.33) (7.32) (-2.63) (11.99) (-2.89) (2.99) (-6.00) (12.38) Fully (-1.62) (-4.04) (2.77) (3.23) (5.10) (-2.36) New Car (-7.64) (-7.12) (-5.18) (-5.99) (-7.01) (-5.48) (2.86) (2.94) (8.11) 1 or 2 years (-4.39) (-4.07) (-5.18) (-3.88) (-4.14) (-3.27) (2.86) (8.11) 3 to 7 years (-5.84) (-4.07) (-3.66) (-3.88) (-4.14) (-3.27) (2.86) (8.11) 8 to 12 yrs (4.55) (4.65) More than (4.55) 1 Compact Car 2 Small Cross-utility vehicle 4

6 Table 2 Estimates of the Vehicle Usage Component of Vehicle Selection Module Variable Parameter t-stat Constant of children Under 4 years of senior adults HH Income Above $80K Location of HH Sub-urban Number of workers Number of vehicles Two Three Four Mean distance to work /10 (miles) Vehicle Characteristics Car Small cross utility vehicle SUV or Van to 12 years old More than 12 years old Standard error of the estimate The scale parameter ( λ ) was estimated to be with a t-statistic of (against a value of 1) and copula dependency parameter ( θ ) is estimated to be equal to with a t-statistic of

7 Table 3 Replacement Decision of Evolution Module: Binary Logit model Variable Parameter t statistic Constant Race of household (other race is base) Caucasian Hispanic Large Household ( size >=5) Large household*replaced vehicle is SUV Household Income (Base is below $60,000) Between $60,000 and $100, Above $120, of children 0 to 4 years to 11 years to 15 years Characteristics of vehicle getting replaced Sports car or cross utility vehicle SUV Van Pickup years old years old years old More than 12 years old Gasoline Fueled Log-likelihood =

8 Table 4 Addition Decision of Evolution Module: Binary Logit model Variable Parameter t statistic Constant Race of the household (other race is base) Caucasian Hispanic Number of adults Large Household ( size >=5) Household Income (Base is above $20,000) Between $20, of children 12 to 15 years of senior adults Region (Base is urban and sub-urban) Rural Household Vehicle Fleet Characteristics Number of compact cars Number of cars Number of SUVs Number of Pickup trucks Log-likelihood =

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