Luxury/Premium Portfolio Expansion in light of Regulation

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE Luxury/Premium Portfolio Expansion in light of Regulation 26 January 2017 Frankfurt, Germany Thomas Meininger, Senior Manager, IHS Advisory Services All Rights Reserved.

2 Changing market framework causes a shift in information requests in the premium/luxury segment How will markets develop and what are key drivers? How much volume opportunity exists for a new vehicle or version?? How does regulatory pressure and changing customer requirements affect the segment? Which alternative powertrain applications will emerge? How do increasing product offers and competition shape the segment? Who are the segment benchmarks for new technology and powertrain adoption? 2

3 Presentation Agenda 1 Luxury Segment Market insights and trends Segment development in light of regulation 2 Premium High Performance Segment Market insight and trends Segment development in light of regulation 3 Summary and Key Takeaways 3

4 Luxury/ Premium Segment View Growing IHS Forecast and Analysis Coverage Pricing in Market Clustering High Luxury Luxury Covered by Luxury / High Performance Vehicle Forecast Upper Premium Premium Entry Premium + Near Premium Note: Brand logo allocated for illustration purposes only 4

5 Growth Drivers Product expansion appeals to growing rich with multi-car ownership Luxury Vehicle Market Growth Pillars Levante Bentayga Cullinan GTC 4 Lusso T8 911 R S400 Maybach Middle East China Bodytypes Variants Markets Urus Sports Turismo DBX AMG GT-R Bentley Supersports Bentayga Diesel South Africa ASEAN South Korea 5

6 Thousands 2017 New Year s Briefing 26 January 2017 Luxury Forecast Insight US single biggest market, China offers opportunities despite headwinds Luxury Vehicle Sales Development by Market core markets account for 75% of global sales United States Germany United Kingdom GCC China Russia ROW Source: IHS luxury vehicle forecast 6

7 Thousands 2017 New Year s Briefing 26 January 2017 Luxury Forecast Insight SUV expansion as growth driver, traditional 4-door under pressure Luxury Vehicle Sales Development by Bodytype Door 4 Door SUV Source: IHS luxury vehicle forecast 7

8 Electrification to maintain the traditional engine business! All Ferraris sold from 2019 will have some hybrid elements. Sergio Marchionne Ferrari CEO, Nov A totally electric Urus is a maybe, depending on how technology and regulations develop Stefano Domenicali Lamborghini CEO, Sept. 2016! Andy Palmer Aston Martin CEO, April 2016 In the latter part of this business plan to 2022, more than half our cars will be hybrids. Mike Flewitt McLaren CEO, May 2016 So the way to keep the V12 and V8 is to create the opposite pure electric From my point of view, plug-in hybrid technology provides the best of two worlds Wolfgang Dürheimer Bentley CEO, Jan Source: Official OEM press statements

9 Thousands 2017 New Year s Briefing 26 January 2017 Luxury Segment Powertrain Outlook Growing offering range and customer acceptance to change the mix 25 Luxury Vehicle Propulsion System Forecast Alternative propulsion predominately from performance plug-in offerings Limited BEV adoption starting end of the forecast timeframe ICE PHEV/ BEV Source: IHS luxury vehicle forecast 9

10 Luxury/ Premium Segment Growing IHS Forecast and Analysis Coverage Pricing in Premium/ Luxury Vehicle Market Clustering High Luxury Luxury Covered by Luxury / High Performance Vehicle Forecast Upper Premium Premium Entry Premium + Near Premium Note: Brand logo allocated for illustration purposes only 10

11 German 3 Performance Vehicle Lineup From emphasis on 2 main vehicle clusters and higher size groups 4-door 2007 Sedan SUV Crossover Hatch coupe Coupe/Cabrio Roadster Wagon Large Full Size Medium Compact 11

12 German 3 Performance Vehicle Lineup to successful, continued expansion into high demand trend segments 4-door Sedan SUV Crossover Hatch coupe Coupe/Cabrio Roadster Wagon Large Full Size Medium Compact 12

13 Thousands 2017 New Year s Briefing 26 January 2017 Performance Vehicle Sales Resulting in major volume growth from compact and entry performance Western Europe Sales Development* Audi BMW Mercedes BMW M includes M Performance, AMG includes 43 Sport models, Audi Sport excludes S vehicles * based on registration data for main European sales countries 13

14 Sales Growth Implications Positive business case increasingly clouded by CO 2 worries Profitability Opportunity CO 2 Threat Entry vehicle CO * % List price mark up potential VS Top-range vehicle +77* % More emissions *Average based on representative models by AUDI, BMW and MERCEDES 14

15 Vehicle Emission Target Regulation 27,5 mpg g CO 2 /km ,1 mpg g CO 2 /km ,9l/100km g CO 2 /km ,0l/100km mpg 2027* 75g CO 2 /km? 2027* 4,1l/100km 2027* According to CAFE Standard According to NEDC Standard According to NEDC Standard 15

16 Emissions Overview Performance emissions considerably above target while sales grow Current CO 2 emission location vs 2021 target CO Series 3 Series X4 5 Series X5 7 Series 300 x Performance x x x x x Standard lineup (shaded) x xdrive40e EU g (BMW Fleet 100g) Plug-in x 330e x 530e x 740e BMW brand and selected vehicles for illustration purposes, no complete coverage intended CO2 values based on ECE test cycle 16

17 Adjusting the Portfolio Electrification rollout to balance emissions and protect trad. performance BMW product portfolio expansion i Performance and BMW i Balancing the product portfolio Source: BMW Group investor factbook Nov

18 M and i vehicles theoretically offsetting each other 340i 156 g/km 194 g/km M3 Ø 101 g/km 97 g/km BMW 2021 EU target 100 g/km 330e 47 g/km 0 g/km i3 BMW brand and selected vehicles for illustration purposes, no complete coverage intended CO2 values based on ECE test cycle 18

19 yet buying preferences do not enable a compensation 340i 156 g/km Other M vehicles 194 g/km M3 330e 2016 Sales GER: 871 units (+ 818 units 335d) Ø 101 g/km 97 g/km 2016 Sales GER: 492 units [BUBBLE SIZE] [BUBBLE SIZE] 47 g/km [BUBBLE SIZE] [BUBBLE SIZE] 0 g/km 2016 Sales GER: 610 units ( units M4) BMW BMW EU target EU target g/km g/km 2016 Sales GER: units i3 Source: IHS registration data full year

20 Increasing Evaluation: Penalty vs. Profit? Performance shall not become decisive factor to miss fleet goal CO 2 Penalty payments increasing drastically in 2019: 95 per gram above target multiplied by vehicles sold in EU M Vehicle Profits EU Penalty Payments Units (EU forecast indication) Profit/Vehicle (assumption) VS Units (IHS forecast EU) 95 Penalty/Gramm 350 Million Profit 87 Million Penalty / Gramm Simplified calculation for illustration purposes 20

21 Performance Powertrain Outlook Mid-term adoption of performance plug-ins, BEV expected long-term Powertrain Roadmap Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Performance BEVs With BEV technology progress (power to weight), performance variants to emerge Performance PHEVs PHEV used as performance boost while reducing emissions Performance ICEs Continued downsizing Mild hybridization to reduce emissions Now Source: IHS analysis 21

22 Performance Powertrain Outlook Assuming clear reduction targets imposed, up to 30% xev required Powertrain Roadmap Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 ICE Performance BEVs With BEV technology progress, [CATE BEV [CATE BEV performance variants to emerge GORY 0,5% GORY 6,0% NAME] NAME] ICE 19% 25% Performance PHEVs PHEV used as performance PHEV booster while reducing emissions ICE PHEV [CATE GORY Performance NAME] ICEs Continued 100% downsizing Mild hybridization to reduce emissions ICE 80,5% BEV [CATE GORY NAME] 69% BEV Now Source: IHS initial working analysis results 22

23 Summary and Key Takeaways Expansion of luxury/ premium performance offerings leading to a sizable volume growth forecast. US and West Europe remain the key sales markets, China is growing with roomier concepts and lower engine size versions. The business is highly profitable, but tightening emission regulation will make the combination of high volume / high emissions an issue. Mid-term outlook: Securing traditional high-cylinder ICEs by means of latest fuel saving technology, downsizing and eventually plug-in applications. Understanding competitive measures and conquest vs. cannibalization effects becomes key. Long-term outlook: Power oriented plug-ins gaining solid volume share and are a necessity (e.g. China cities). BEV performance variants arriving mid-2020s after required technology progress. 23

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