ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends
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1 ICSC Chain Store Sales Trends International Council of Shopping Centers December 4, 2008 Awful Beginning to Holiday Season Promotions Drive Black Friday Sales Strength, But Too Little Help Retail industry comparable-store sales for the four-week fiscal month of November posted its weakest performance in more than 35 years (for which ICSC data exist--the sales index began in November 1969), based on a preliminary tally of 37 retail-chain stores compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers. The U.S. recession continued to take its toll on the retail industry as November 2008 comparable-store sales declined by a record 2.7% from the same month of the prior year and extended the weakening trend in demand that has been present since July. Excluding Wal-Mart from the November tally, industry sales tumbled by a record 7.7% since this special aggregate was first calculated since November In November, every retail segment tracked posted a decline: apparel-specialty off 10.4% y/y (with its teen segment down 14.8%), department stores down 13.3% with its luxury sub-segment declining by 10.5%, sales at discounters were -1.0%, drug stores sales were -0.6% and wholesale club sales fell by 2.4%. To be sure, there were special factors for this degree of weakness--namely, a calendar shift (ICSC Research estimates was a drag of between 1.5 and 2.0 percentage points on aggregate year-over-year percentage change in sales) and declining gasoline prices lowering wholesale club sales (which had a negligible aggregate effect)--but the underlying trend was best described by one retailer who said the holiday season got off to a difficult start. Indeed. A number of retailers commented that Black Friday (the Friday after Thanksgiving Day) sales were strong as consumers shopped for bargains. For example, Terry Lundgren of Macy s noted that November ended with a strong Thanksgiving weekend, including the largest Black Friday in the history of the company. Finally, recognizing the strong headwind for this holiday season and the weaker-than-expected actual November sales performance, ICSC Research again has pared its holiday sales forecast to flat to down 1.0% for the November-December combined period. That updated projection includes an expected gain of about 1.5% for December sales. This would be the weakest holiday-sales performance on record. Michael P. Niemira, Chief Economist & Director of Research Chart 1: Retail Chain Store Sales Segments & Selected Comp-Store Performance November 2008 TOTAL WMT TGT COST JCP LTD DDS KSS APPL DEPT DISC DRUG WHOLE Percentage Change From Yearago 10 % Change From Yearago Chart 2 ICSC Retail Chain Store Index January November 2008 Note: The current index is based on comparable store sales for about 40 major retailers. The index began in 1969 and also is available seasonally adjusted. WMT = WalMart KSS = Kohl's TGT = Target Corp. Symbol Guide JCP = J.C. Penney COST = Costco LTD = Limited DDS = Dillard's Segments: Apparel (APP), Department Store (DEPT), Discounter (DISC), Drug (DRUG), Wholesale Clubs (WHOLE) and Furniture (FURN). November 2008 Sales International Council of Shopping Centers Comp-Store Chain Store Sales Index -2.7% year/year 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY Total-Store Chain Store Sales Index +-3.1% year/year (646) Permission is granted to quote from this report with citation. Copyright, KSS DEPT JCP LTD TGT APPL DDS COST TOTAL DISC DRUG WHOLE WMT
2 International Council of Shopping Centers U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index Year/Year Percentage Change YTD Nov 08 Oct 08 Sep 08 Aug 08 Jul 08 Jun 08 May 08 Apr 08 Mar 08 Feb 08 Jan 08 Dec 07 Total Comparable Store Sales Total Less Wal-Mart Total Less Drug Store Sales Specialized Groupings (Comparable Store Sales) Apparel Chain Stores Department Stores Luxury Stores Discount Stores Drug Stores Wholesale Clubs Wholesale Clubs Ex Fuel Sales Equally Weighted Comp. Sales Comparable Store Sales (Calendar Adj.) Total Store Sales Note: The "concentration ratio" is defined as the absolute value for the dollar weighted ($W) change divided by the equally weighted (EW) change. Number of Retailers
3 Year/Year Percentage Change in Retail Chain Store Sales Selected "Comp" Store Sales YTD Nov 08 Oct 08 Sep 08 Aug 08 Jul 08 Jun 08 May 08 Apr 08 Wal-Mart Target Corp JC Penney Macy's Inc. (qtr) % QTR ( -5.8% Sep-Aug) -2.1 QTR NA NA -2.6 QTR Limited Kohl's Gap Unweighted Comparable-Store Sales, % Change Y/Y YTD Nov 08 Oct 08 Sep 08 Aug 08 Jul 08 Jun 08 May 08 Apr 08 Apparel Specialty Apparel Specialty Less Gap Abercrombie & Fitch Cato Chico's FAS Gap Limited Ross Stores Department Stores Dillards J.C. Penney - Department Stores Kohl's Nordstrom Discounters Target - Discount Stores TJX WalMart - Discount Stores Drug Stores Rite Aid Walgreens Wholesale Clubs Wholesale Clubs Ex Fuel BJs Wholesale Costco WalMart - Sam's Clubs Teen Segment Luxury Segment
4 Historical Data Begin in 1969 Seasonal Factors Updated May 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Comparable-Store Sales, Seasonally Adjusted NA 325 Not Seasonally Adjusted Index (1977=100) NA
5 Historical Data Begin in 1969 Seasonal Factors Updated May 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Year/Year Percentage Change, Comparable Store NA Month/Month Percentage Change, Seasonally Adjusted, Comparable Store NA --
6 Historical Data Begin in 1969 Seasonal Factors Updated May 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Shares of Annual Sales Per Month, Comparable Store Year Avg Overall Rank
7 Seasonal Factors Updated Oct 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Total Retail Chain Store Sales, Seasonally Adjusted NA 26.0 Month/Month Percentage Change in Total Sales, Seasonally Adjusted NA
8 Seasonal Factors Updated Oct 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Total Retail Chain Store Sales Index, 1977=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted NA Year/Year Percentage Change in Total Sales Annual NA
9 Seasonal Factors Updated Oct 2006 Using TRAMO-SEATS Shares of Annual Sales Per Month, Total Store Year Avg
10 ICSC Chain Store Sales Index Year/Year % Change in Sales During Jan-Oct Period Ahead of and During the Holiday Season Length of the Shopping Season (Days Between Thanksgiving and Christmas days) Day of the Week for Christmas Hanukkah (holiday starts night before) Year Jan-Oct Nov-Dec Difference Wednesday 12/ Thursday 12/ Friday 12/ Sunday 12/ Monday 12/ Tuesday 12/ Wednesday 12/ Friday 12/ Saturday 12/ Sunday 11/ Monday 12/ Wednesday 12/ Thursday 12/ Friday 12/ Saturday 12/ Monday 12/ Tuesday 12/ Wednesday 11/ Thursday 12/ Saturday 12/ Sunday 12/ Monday 12/ Tuesday 12/ est to flat 27 Thursday 12/ Median Excluding 1990,
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Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 2,038 2,922 4,089 4,349 6,256 7,124 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 9,107
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