Green Island Project Creating Value through Systems Thinking. Carlos A. Santos Silva MIT-Portugal Program Instituto Superior Técnico

Transcription

1 Green Island Project Creating Value through Systems Thinking Carlos A. Santos Silva MIT-Portugal Program Instituto Superior Técnico

2 The islands of Azores Azores satellite image (NASA)

3 Azores Energy Outlook TJ Renewables Kerosene Butane Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil TJ Residential Public Services Commerce Industry Agriculture Electricity Production Road Transportation Imports 90% of its energy needs Electricity Production (47% ) and Road Transportation (33%) are the largest primary energy consumers

4 Renewable electricity in Azores

5 Energy Strategy for 2018 Goals for all Azores 75% of renewables on electricity production 40% of renewables on primary energy Plan Increase renewable electricity production (geothermal, wind) Electrification of fossil fuels uses Energy Efficiency Questions Which technology? Involve the people? Create economic value? Green Islands Project

6 Engineering a Sustainable Energy System Technical dimension Storage / Smart Grids/ Electric Vehicles / Biomass Economic dimension Sustainble Investments / Energy markets Social dimension Acceptance / Behavior Changes / Education / Collective welfare Critical Infrastructures Energy /Transportation /Communication Sustainability Safety /Security Fundamentals Complexity, Uncertainty

7 Sustainable Energy Systems Research EV in PT and SM (FCT) Remote Autonomous Energy Systems (FINERTEC) Energy in Transportation n Systems Electric Vehicles Mobility Patterns Renewable Resources Energy Efficiency Energy Policy and Planning Energy Strategy Green Islands Building Stock Sustainability Indicators Energy Modeling Residential Energy Demand Sustainable Built Environment Corvo 100% Renewable Smart Grid Smart Energy Netw works EV charging (INTELLI) SMARTGALP (GALP) NEGAWATT (YELLOSTROM) TAGUSPARK (ITRON)

8 Resource characterization (Tides / Currents) Manuela Juliano, Univ. Azores, CCMMG

9 GREENFAMILIES SURVEY Household area Windows direction and type Hot water system Heating system Armando Mendes, Univ. Azores

10 ELECTRIC MOBILITY IN AZORES

11 Designing Electric Mobility for Azores

12 Fleet Evolution (FLORES) Gasoline LDV LDV Diesel HEV diesel HEV gasoline PHEV gasoline PHEV diesel EVs 1,20E+08 1,00E+08 8,00E+07 6,00E+07 4,00E+07 2,00E+07 0,00E+00 EVs PHEV diesel PHEV gasoline FCV HEV FCV PHEV HEV gasoline HEV diesel LDV Diesel Gasoline LDV Number of vehicles Sc.1 Baseline trend Sc. 2 Policy oriented Sc. 3 Electricity powered TTW Energy Consumption per technology (MJ) 2010 Policy 2010 Electricity 2010 Basline 2030 Policy 2030 Electricity 2030 Baseline 2050 Policy 2050 Electricity 2050 Researcher: Patrícia Baptista

13 Production (S. MIGUEL) Electricity Primary Energy Researcher: André Pina

14 Distribution (FLORES) Wind speed decrease Shortfall of 450 kw in the wind power production kw ms Scenario 3 : 1000 EV; 550 EV charging simultaneously; 100% smart charging adherents Researcher: Joel Soares

15 Network in 2010 (TERCEIRA) 2 Researcher: João Raposo

16 Network in 2015 (TERCEIRA) Researcher: João Raposo

17 CORVO TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE

18 Corvo Island Land area: 17 km2 Population (2008): 488 Primary energy consumption (TJ): 21 Renewables penetration in electricity: 0% Number of vehicles: 93 Number of households: 145 Electricity customers: 248

19 Corvo Energy Outlook Fuel transport is very difficult in winter Supply disruption every year (butane and diesel for vehicles) Butane offset

20 Electricity Consumption Residential sector represents 40% Detailed survey

21 Residential demand characterization survey - results Researcher: André Pina, Nuno Clímaco

22 Residential demand characterization survey - findings The number of freezers in Corvo is much higher need to store larger amounts of food. The number of dishwashers is much smaller. Possible demand increase due to new appliances Most of the washing machines, clothes dryers and dishwashers are very recent no maintenance Freezers and refrigerators are older Opportunity for decrease residential base load demand Researcher: André Pina, Nuno Clímaco

23 Towards 100% Renewable Energy 1. Solar thermal for Hot Water New electricity demand: 316 kwh /day Demand Pattern: 200 kwh7h-9h, 116kWh 19H-21H 2. Electrify stoves and ovens New electricity demand: 165MWh /year, 450 kwh /day Demand Pattern: 200kWh12H-14H, 250kWh19H-22H 3. Electric Vehicles 40 LDV: Average charge - once a week, 6 EV charging per day Demand Pattern:130kWh:23H-8H, 20kWh:11H-15H Wind park + storage facility [EDA] Flywheels, Water system, Batteries, EV

24 Scenarios

25 Testing 3x330kW wind turbines + storage (2015) MW Wh No additional loads, besides regular electricity consumption, were considered Lost wind energy and fuel use day lost wind fuel use Storage unit is above 90% of capacity for 41% of the time. Discharges 115 MWh this year. # hours Percentage of renewable electricity: 64% Percentage of wind energy not used: 42% Storage usage 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

26 100% renewable energy Corvo requires INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS! Smart grid Large penetration of renewables Demand side management Customers interaction Behavioral changes (information, education) Market incentives ( contracts with bonus and penalties) Electric vehicles Grid management (storage and regulation)

27 Where can we create the value? Information management, interpretation, display Customers Utilities, Agencies Original business models Providing demand instead of the supply (energy services) Satisfying peoples needs using energy (security, elderly care) Fresh policies and regulations Residential energy market Market and taxes incentives oriented to energy efficiency