Exploring Changing Travel Trends

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1 Exploring Changing Travel Trends Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D. Xuehao Chu, Ph.D. Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida Nancy McGuckin Travel Behavior Associates

2 Fundamentals on Interpreting NHTS Data If you torture the data long enough, nature will confess. Ronald Coase 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics If you torture the data long enough you can make it confess to anything. Alan Pisarski No Nobel Prizes

3 Simple Recipe for Using NHTS Data 1. Start with: 2. Add other data as necessary and available 3. Blend with Statistical package or various analytical tools 4. Evaluate Results Sound theory or hypothesis NHTS data Other data as available Confirm with other survey, count or field data Review MOEs (margins of error) and MORs (measures of relevance) Anecdotal Evidence 5. Serve with good graphics and compelling story

4 Social and Economic Interactions Create Demand for Travel Time Growth in Income Knowledge Specialization in Employment Consumption Social Relationships Time Use Growth in Person Travel Commerce Communication

5 FIRST NHTS Population (millions) 23 15, households surveyed In home interviews Person miles traveled (trillion) 1.4 First Computer to Computer Message Vehicles/1 people 52 Gas /gallon $. 35 New house $ 15,55 Income per year $ 8,55 New car $ 3,27 Man Walks on Moon Eisenhower Passes Chappaquiddick Bridge Incident Wal*Mart Incorporated Woodstock Festival

6 SECOND NHTS Population (millions) , households surveyed In home interviews Person miles traveled (trillion ) 1.62 Vehicles/1 people 68 Gas /gallon $. 65 New house $ 49,3 Income per year $15, BMW 32i $ 7,99 First Star Wars Released Fiber optics deployed for telephone communications Alaska Pipeline Opens Department of Energy Created Apple Computer Incorporated Elvis Died?

7 THIRD NHTS Population (millions) 234 6,5 households surveyed In home interviews Person miles traveled (trillions) 1.59 Vehicles/1 people 7 Gas /gallon $. 79 New house $ 82,6 Income per year $ 21,7 Dodge RAM 5 Truck $ 5,665 ARPANET officially changes to use the Internet Protocol, creating the Internet Microsoft Word and Lotus first released. Michael Jackson does Moon Walk McNuggets Introduced Top Seller Ford Escort Modern Minivan Introduced First mobile phones introduced to public by Motorola

8 199 - FOURTH NHTS Population (millions) , + 4,3 add-on Households Computer Assisted Telephone Interview Person miles traveled (trillions) 2.3 Vehicles/1 people 76 Gas /gallon $ 1.34 New house $ 123, Income per year $ 28,96 Isuzu Rodeo $ 12,49 Exxon Valdez Spill Honda Accord Top Seller Hubble Deployed from Discovery "The Simpsons Aired First Time

9 FIFTH NHTS Population (millions) , +21, add on households Mail out with CATI Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.11 Vehicles/1 people 77 Gas /gallon $ 1.9 New house $ 113,15 Income per year $ 35,9 New car $ 15,5 DVD, Optical Disc Storage Media Announced. Play Station Released in U.S Honda Civic, Most Commonly Stolen Car in 27

10 21 - SIXTH NHTS Population (millions) , + 44, add-on households Two-stage CATI Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.52 Vehicles/1 people 82 Gas /gallon $ 1.46 New house $ 136,15 Income per year $ 42,35 New car $ 27,958 Segway Introduced to Revolutionize Transportation? Academy Award Winning Movie dealt with drugs not cars Satellite Radio Begins September 11

11 SEVENTH NHTS Population (millions) 35 25, + 125, add-on households Two-stage CATI Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.3 The top three Internet searches in 28: 1. Britney Spears 2. World Wrestling Entertainment 3. Obama Vehicles/1 people 8 Gas /gallon $ 3.39 New house $ 238,88 Income per year $ 4,523 New car $ 28,715 Automakers Beg for Washington Aid Richest Nations Agree to Halve Greenhouse Gas Facebook Passes 1 Million Users

12 214 - NHTS Population (millions) 323 Person VMT (trillion ).23 Vehicles/1 people 8 Gas /Gallon $.79 New house $165, Income per year $38, New Car NA Press to Transport President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA Apple iphone 7G ios 8 Personal Teleportation App

13 214 - NHTS Population (millions) 323 Person VMT (trillion ).23 Vehicles/1 people 8 Gas /Gallon $.79 New house $165, Income per year $38, New Car NA Press to Transport Apple iphone 7G ios 8 President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA Personal Teleportation App

14 214 - NHTS Population (millions) 323 Person VMT (trillion ).23 Vehicles/1 people 8 Gas /Gallon $.79 New house $165, Income per year $38, New Car NA Press to Transport Apple iphone 7G ios 8 President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA Personal Teleportation App

15 Fundamental Travel Trends VMT, Registered Vehicles, Gas Cost, Average Income 1% 9% 8% 7% Average Income Registered Vehicles Gas Cost PMT Percent Growth since % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %

16 Travel Trends VMT in Millions VMT per Person 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, Annual VMT 5, PMT/VMT Travel Time per Capita Annual Hours per Person

17 Demographic Trends Population - Urban and Rural Population by Age Percent of Population 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Urban Rural Percent of all People 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Age 5-15 Age Age Age Age 65 and over Household Size Households with Siblings Percent of all Households 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 5+ Persons 4 Persons 3 Persons 2 Persons 1 Person Basketball Team Three Siblings Two Siblings Single Sibling Only Child census 196 2

18 Demographic Trends Number of Households (thousands) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Three or More Vehicles Two Vehicles One Vehicle No Vehicle 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Population by Race Other African American Housing Type Population by MSA Size 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Multi- Family Units Single Family Units Note: 199 NPTS did not collect dwelling unit information 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Less than 25, 25, to 499,999 5, to 999,999 1 mil to 2 mil 3 mil or more

19 VMT Basics 1. Pop Trip Rate Trip Length Vehicle Share = Vehicle Miles of Travel Travel Time Budget Travel Speed 2. Pop Time in SOV Travel Speed = Vehicle Miles of Travel Income 3. % Δ Population + 1/3 % Δ Personal Income = % Δ Vehicle Miles of Travel

20 Trip Rate and Length 18 Annual Trips per Person Trip Length Adj

21 NPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares 6% Percent Walking to Work 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % % % % % Walk is 1.95% of all trips in % % % % % % % Work Trip "Usual Mode" Work Trip Actual Mode

22 Census/ACS Work Trip Percent Walking Mode Share 12% 1% 1.4% Percent Walking to Work 8% 6% 4% 7.4% 5.6% 3.9% 2.9% 29 ACS 2% 2.86% %

23 Vehicle Occupancies - NHTS Work Trip All Trips Occupancy

24 Carpooling Mode Share (ACS) 25% 2% 2.4% 19.7% Percent Carpooling to Work 15% 1% 5% 13.4% 12.2% 1.7% %

25 Transit Mode Share Trends 1% 9% 8% 8.9% Census/ACS Journey to Work, Usual Mode NPTS/NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day NPTS/NHTS All Trips NHTS 21 Adjusted 7% 6.4% NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Usual Mode Percent on Transit 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 5.11% 3.56% 5.5% 4.7% 3.67% 5.13% 4.99% 3.68% 2% 1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 1.81% 1.76% 1.56% 1.92% %

26 Time Spent in Travel per Day Minutes adj

27 Person Miles of Travel per Hour (speed, all trips) MPH adj

28 Mean Household Income Received by Each Quintile 1967 to 28 Lowest fifth Third fifth Highest fifth Second fifth Fourth fifth $2, $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Census, 28 dollars

29 PMT by Income Quintile 18, 16, 14, Annual Per Person PMT 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

30 Driving Population by Age and Gender Percent of Population Male 21 Female 21 Male 28 Female 28 Age 3

31 PMT and VMT per Capita by Age Per Capita VMT 21 Per Capita PMT 28 Per Capita VMT 28 Per Capita PMT

32 PMT and VMT per Capita by Age Per Capita VMT 28 Per Capita VMT

33 Trip Purpose Changes by Gender Annual Person Trips per Person To or From Work School/Church Family and Personal Errands Social and Recreational Women Men

34 Vehicle Availability Vehicles per Vehicles per worker Vehicles per person 16 and older Vehicles per person Vehicles per driver

35 Declining Zero-Vehicle Households? 25% 2% Percent 15% 1% 5% NPTS/NHTS Census ACS % Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 22-9 ACS

36 Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution HH Vehicles Household Percents National Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution, 29 Number of Adults in HH All 5.79% 2.28%.38%.19%.5% 8.69% 1 2.4% 1.18% 1.31%.33%.6% 32.28% % 29.4% 2.92%.62%.8% 36.32% 3.74% 9.6% 3.72%.78%.9% 14.39% 4.21% 2.58% 1.54%.82%.13% 5.3% 5+.14% 1.4%.82%.49%.17% 3.2% All 3.96% 54.54% 1.69% 3.23%.58% 1.% 2.66% More cars than adults 54.16% Cars equals adults 16.5% Fewer cars than adults 8.69% Zero cars

37 Transit Mode Share by Vehicle Availability 3 25 Shortage of Vehicles Mode Share Percent Cars, 1 or More Workers cars, Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos 1 More Worker than Autos Cars is Greater Than Workers Cars = Workers 1 Car, 1 Worker

38 Transit Market Share by Car Availability Car, 1 Worker 11.2% 34.9% Cars, 1 or More Workers 1 Car, 1 Worker 13.4% 32.5% Cars, 1 or More Workers Cars = Workers 9.4% Cars is Greater than Workers 11.2% 15.4% 8.2% 9.7% 1 More Worker than Autos Cars, Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos Cars = Workers Cars is Greater than Workers 7.2% 14.4% 13.7% 1 More Worker than Autos 15.6% 3.3% Cars, Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos

39 Transit Mode Share by Income 7 Mode Share Under $15, $15,-$5, $5,+

40 Transit and Elderly Average Trips per Day Person Trips per Day by Age Age Group Share of Transit Trips by Age Groups 65+, 8.2% 5-14, 6.5% 15-24, 21.3% Transit Mode Share 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Transit Mode Share by Age 25-64, 64.% Age Group

41 Where Have We Been Changes Population,, % Where are We Going? Person VMT % VMT/Population % Trip Rate % Trip Length % SOV Share % Travel Speed % Demographics Population Diversity Activity Patterns Land Use Economics & Technology Income & Wealth Technology Mode Availability & Performance? 41

42 Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue Home Ownership Levels at New Lows The New York Times, May 211

43 Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue Americans got used to staycations during the recession, but as the economy begins to recover many are now ready to graduate to the short-stay getaway AP, May 211 UPDATE: Gas Prices, Economy Leave Retailers With Mixed May Sales WSJ, 211

44 Role of Communications Technology 3% of couples meet online, eharmony is responsible for 5% of all marriages Holiday shoppers spent 12% more on line in 21 than 29 85% of Americans own cell phones, 25% of households have gone cell phone only 51% of Americans 12 years of age or older have a Facebook account There was a 21% increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 21. Households with teenage children had 5.2 online purchases and 4.2 home deliveries per month according to NHTS.

45 Socio-Demographic Issues Aging population Saturation of female labor force participation Different young adult behaviors Slowing migration - locked in homes/less mobile Reduced immigration Income/wealth impact Changing household composition Slowing of suburbanization? System Supply Issues Future system supply and speed Energy and other costs Environment/climate concerns Evolving technology impacting travel Etc.

46 How can the current and future NHTS help us address transportation planning and policy issues going forward?

47 NHTS - A FIX FOR DATA ADDICTS AND INOCULATION AGAINST UNINFORMED DECISIONS 47

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