Electric Vehicles in India

Transcription

1 Electric Vehicles in India Contact: George Popps, Director TEL UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM FUEL & TRANSPORT

2 Who We Are Stratas Advisors is a global consulting and advisory firm that covers the full spectrum of the energy sector and closely linked industries The world s leading businesses, governments and institutions turn to us for data, analysis and insight (IOCs, NOCs, independents, energy consumers and financial entities) We help our clients achieve tangible results through informed strategic decision-making and implementation planning Key differentiators include Global coverage with deep local knowledge Integrated analysis across the entire energy value chain, including macro-level analysis (geopolitics, macro-economics, policies and regulations) Our research and consulting staff comprises professionals located on the ground in key global energy market centers Combined, our team brings over 500 years of combined energy industry expertise, including Technical (Petroleum Engineers, Geologists, Process Engineers) Economists Political Scientists Financial Analysts Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 2

3 Global Overview

4 Global Electric Vehicles By Region Global EV Infrastructure, Policy, Sales & Fleet Developments Global Electric Vehicles Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 4

5 Global Electric Vehicles Charging Stations Major developed countries lead the way Asia China: 167,000 (split between public and private) India: Approx (split between public and private) Korea: 3,114 (1,606 Normal Power; 1508 High Power) Japan: 40,000 (6,469 High Power charging points) Europe France: 16,129 (14,407 Normal Power; 1,722 High Power) Germany: 20,295 (18,334 Normal Power; 1,961 High Power) Italy: 2,228 (1,980 Normal Power; 248 High Power) UK: 13,524 (11,117 Normal Power, 2,07 High Power) Latin America Argentina: 10 (220 to be installed by the end of 2018) Brazil: 256 (split between public and private) Mexico: Approx. 700 (Limited to metro Monterrey, Mexico City) North America USA: 64,301 (17,192 Charging Stations; 47,109 Charging Outlets) Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 5

6 Global Electric Vehicles Legislation and Taxes Policies and proposals for electric vehicles EV Programs: Programs and Mandates Asia China: New Energy Vehicle Program (NEV) India: Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles (FAME) Korea: Ministry of Energy Eco-Friendly Motor Vehicle Strategy Japan: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Clean Energy Program Europe France: Bonus / Malus Low CO2 Emission Incentive Program Germany: European Commission Proposed Post-2020 Plan Italy: European Commission Proposed Post-2020 Plan UK: Office for Low Emissions Vehicles Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill Latin America Brazil: INOVAR Auto Program (expired at the end of 2017) North America USA: Zero Emissions Vehicle Program (ZEV) Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 6

7 Global Electric Vehicles Legislation and Taxes Policies and Proposals for Electric Vehicles EV Policies: Tax Incentives Asia China: Government subsidies have been extended through at least 2020 to give consumers a 10% rebate for new EVs for New Energy Vehicles (EVs, PHEVs, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc). Freedom from license plate access restrictions; access to bus lanes, free charging, and free parking. Latin America Argentina: 0 5% import duty on EVs from OEMs with manufacturing in Argentina Mexico: EVs are exempted from Mexico City s driving restrictions India: Government subsidies up to Rs 1.5 lakh is available for EVs and PHEVs from the federal government. Some states offer no or reduced VAT levy on the purchase. Delhi offers a 15% subsidy on certain EV brands. Korea: Government subsidies have been increased to 1.4 crore won at purchase. Purchase tax surcharges are also reduced, as are reductions in insurance premiums, expressway tolls, and fees for parking. Japan: New green tech vehicles are exempted from acquisition and tonnage taxes. Used green vehicles enjoy reduced acquisition taxes. Subsidies for purchasing a new green vehicle can vary from 2 lakh yen to 18 lakh yen, varying on fuel efficiency and emissions output. Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 7

8 Global Electric Vehicles Legislation and Taxes Policies and Proposals for Electric Vehicles EV Policies: Tax Incentives Europe France: Bonus/Malus System which is designed to incentivize low CO2 emission vehicles. Vehicles emitting less than 20 g/km CO2 receive a 6,000 subsidy and vehicles which emit between g/km CO2 receive 6,000 subsidy. France also has a diesel scrappage scheme which provides subsidies for retiring a diesel vehicle that is 11 years or older for a new BEV ( 4,000 bonus) or PHEV ( 2,500 bonus) North America USA: Federal tax credits to consumers of $2,500 $7,500 for new EV purchases up to 200,000 units per OEM for use within country. Individual states and municipalities have purchase rebates and registration tax exemptions to varying levels of incentives Germany: Government sponsored subsidies through 2020 to increase EV adoption ( 4,000 for BEVs, 3,000 for hybrids and PHEVs). Additional local incentives include free parking, bus lane usage Italy: EVs in Italy are exempt from the annual circulation tax (ownership tax) for 5 years after the date of first registration. After 5 years a 75% reduction in the tax rate is applied to EVs in many regions. Local purchase subsidies exist in many cities UK: Vehicles with a zero-emission range of at least 110 km are eligible for a 4,500 grant. PHEVs costing under 60,000 are eligible for 2,500 grants Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 8

9 Global Electric Vehicles New Registrations New Registrations of Electric Vehicles in 2017 EV New Registrations 2017 to 2027 Asia China: 490, million Korea: 23, ,000 Japan: 230, ,000 Europe France: 56, ,000 Germany: 46, ,000 UK: 65, ,000 North America USA: 205, million Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 9

10 Global Electric Vehicles LDV Fleet Global LDV Stock of Electric Vehicles in 2017 EV Vehicle Fleet Asia China: 1.3 million 24.4 million Korea: 40, ,000 Japan: 460,000 6 million Europe France: 285, million Germany: 101, million UK: 133, million North America USA: 850, million Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 10

11 Electric Vehicles in India

12 Electric Vehicles Developments in India EV Infrastructure, Policy, Sales & Fleet Development ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 12

13 India Electric Vehicles Infrastructure Indian Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Current EV Charging Infrastructure Approximately charging points (split between public and private) Mahindra offers charging infrastructure exclusively for their customers in various cities across India (red markers) Roughly 240 community charging stations (green markers) India s first traditional open access EV station was opened by Ola and IOC in Nagpur in November 2017 Proposed/Future EV Charging Infrastructure ABB India is planning 4,500 charging stations in India Maharashtra is planning 500 charging stations by 2020 (MSEDCL) Fortum and NBCC are planning 150+ charging stations by 2020 across India Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 13 Image source: RE:Charge India

14 India Electric Vehicles Legislation and Taxes NITI Aayog proposes a 3-pronged approach to push EV adoption in India FAME Scheme Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicles FAME Phase 1 (Through Q1 2018): Up to Rs 1.38 lakh for cars, lowering retail prices for EVs FAME Phase 2 (Beginning Q2 2018): Up to Rs 1 crore subsidy (buses), Rs 1.24 lakh (taxis) Increase FAME budget in coming waves Bring all EVs to competitive prices with traditional ICE vehicles Lower VAT duties on EVs and Plug-in Hybrid EVs (PHEVs) at the state level Encourage Make in India initiatives to spur economic growth Fund EV infrastructure (charging networks, battery swap concepts, etc) with tax revenue from ICE vehicles Leverage the traditional to maximize new technology Image source: NITI Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 14

15 India Electric Vehicles New Registrations New Registrations of Electric Vehicles New Light Duty Vehicle Registrations New Registrations: 2017 vs 2027 Total LDVs: 3.1 million vehicles 4.6 million vehicles EVs & PHEVs: 4,000 vehicles 925,000 vehicles Government Incentives FAME Phase 1 (Through Q1 2018): Up to Rs 1.38 lakh for cars, lowering retail prices for EVs FAME Phase 2 (Beginning Q2 2018): Up to Rs 1 crore subsidy for buses, Rs 1.24 lakh for taxis Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 15

16 India Electric Vehicles Threats to EVs Non-Electric Alternatives Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Vehicles Pilot program in Delhi has been ruled by Supreme Court to expand nationwide Requires CNG conversion kit to be installed Roughly 22,000 Rs Methanol Hybrid Vehicles Pushed by NITI Aayog think-tank. Concept would use methanol in lieu of gasoline in hybrid vehicles. Couples with NITI Aayog s Methanol Economy proposals Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) Engines Improved fuel combustion via simultaneous ignition and homogenous fuel-air blend throughout chamber, reducing unspent fuel that is flushed out as pollution Adaptive to multiple petrol and diesel fuel blends Image source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 16

17 India Electric Vehicles Fuel Demand Electric Vehicle Implications for Fuel Demand Conventional Fuels Outpace EVs From 2017 through 2027, EVs and PHEVs will go from a combined fleet percentage share of 0.2% in 2017 to 8.0% by 2027 The conventional fueled LDV fleet in India will go from a combined 97.3% market share (petrol 76.6% / diesel 20.6%) in 2017 to a combined 83.9% (62% petrol, 21.8% diesel) by the end of 2027, which represents a 13.3% powertrain shift in the fleet by 2027 India Transportation Fuel Demand India s LDV fleet expands at a healthy annual average rate of 4.0% from , supporting road fuel demand growth of 4.1% over the same period India s LDV fleet is an important driver of the demand outlook, but much of the country s road demand is tied to the motorcycle fleet as well as medium- and heavy-duty trucking activity Given the current state of EV infrastructure and fleet volume, electric vehicle do not pose a substantial threat through the next decade Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 17

18 Global Electric Vehicles Threats to EVs Near term and systemic threats to global fleet composition shifting to EVs Various Technology for Fuel Efficiency Gains for ICE Low Rolling Resistance Tires: % fuel efficiency gain Cylinder Deactivation: % fuel efficiency gain Turbocharging and Downsizing: % fuel efficiency gain Efficiency gains variable on original engine size HCCI engines: 20 30% fuel efficiency gain Various Alternative Fuels with Sizeable Market share CNG: India, Australia Ethanol blends (E100 and blends): Brazil, China, USA Autogas (LNG): Turkey, South Korea Reduction in Country Level Targets (Fuel Economy and Sales) USA: Relaxing CAFÉ; ZEV Programs China: CAFC; NEV Program Australia: Failure to adopt Euro VI standards Brazil: Creation of LDV fuel efficiency standards Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 18

19 Q & A Contact Information George Popps Director gpopps@stratasadvisors.com Trey Hohmann Manager, Global Automotive thohmann@stratasadvisors.com

20 Stratas Advisors, a Hart Energy company, is a global consulting and advisory firm that covers the full spectrum of the energy sector and related industries. We can help you develop a deeper understanding of the developments that are shaping the future of oil & gas. Our support includes customized consulting that is focused on a client s specific strategic objectives, competitive challenges and asset base. Additionally, we offer support through subscription services and comprehensive market studies UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM FUEL & TRANSPORT 1616 South Voss Road Suite 675 Houston, TX United States TEL stratasadvisors.com Bogotá Brussels Denver Houston London Melbourne Mexico City New Delhi New York San Diego São Paulo Singapore Washington, D.C.