Tarrant County Projected Population Growth

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Amberly Warner
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Based on the information provided in the preceding chapters, it is apparent that there are a number of issues that must be addressed as The T

These include: Fort Worth has grown from a small city to a medium-sized city in a major metropolitan area.

Tarrant County s population will continue to grow, and increasing shares of older adults, Millennials, and minority residents will contribute to

Limited avenues of funding, especially from local sources, have long constrained The T s ability to increase and expand transit service.

levels. The T s service is very limited in terms of how frequently it operates and the hours that it operates.

Most of The T s services are provided within the I-820 loop, yet much of the county s recent growth has been to the north, northeast, and east of

Throughout the country, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of new types of higher quality transit services.

3 Based on the information provided in the preceding chapters, it is apparent that there are a number of issues that must be addressed as The T works to develop an excellent transit system for Fort Worth and Tarrant County. These include: Fort Worth has grown from a small city to a medium-sized city in a major metropolitan area. However, the area s population and employment have grown much faster than The T s system. Tarrant County s population will continue to grow, and increasing shares of older adults, Millennials, and minority residents will contribute to much higher demand for transit service. Limited avenues of funding, especially from local sources, have long constrained The T s ability to increase and expand transit service. Fort Worth and Tarrant County will continue to grow rapidly much more rapidly than The T will be able to expand service based on current funding levels. The T s service is very limited in terms of how frequently it operates and the hours that it operates. As a result, transit is not a convenient or attractive option for many of the county s residents and employees who have other travel options. Most of The T s services are provided within the I-820 loop, yet much of the county s recent growth has been to the north, northeast, and east of the loop. There is a significant and growing demand for transit in these areas but very little service. Throughout the country, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of new types of higher quality transit services. These include commuter rail, rapid transit, light rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Rapid Bus, streetcar, and more. The T has already started to develop premium services, such as TRE, Molly the Trolley, and the Spur* rapid bus line. However, with those exceptions, many of The T s most important bus routes continue to provide regular local service. Experience from nearby Dallas and throughout the country shows that the development of premium transit service will attract more riders and a much broader cross-section of an area s population.

4 Population (thousands) The input from stakeholders received as part of this project (and particularly during stakeholder interviews) indicates that many view the services provided by The T as being only for those without other options, particularly low-income residents and people with disabilities, and not the broader population. To a certain extent, this perception reflects reality and is a consequence of the issues described above. Texas is one of the fastest growing states in the country, and Fort Worth and Tarrant County are among the fastest growing places in Texas. Tarrant County has grown significantly in the last 30 years and is projected to continue growing for the next 30 years. Since 1980, Fort Worth s population has doubled from 400,000 to 800,000 people. Between 2000 and 2013 alone, the city of Fort Worth grew by 42% and ranked as the fastest-growing city in the U.S. with a population of more than 500,000. Looking forward, rapid growth will continue. By 2040, Tarrant County s population is projected to increase by another 40%, from 1.8 million to 2.5 million (see Figure 5-1). 3,000 2,500 Tarrant County Projected Population Growth 2.5 million 2,000 1, million 1, Despite the ongoing growth in Tarrant County, The T s bus system has remained relatively unchanged during this time. As shown in Figure 5-2, individual routes have changed over time but the amount of service coverage has not changed substantially most service is still limited to within the I-820 loop, with little service outside this boundary. Looking forward, The T will need to grow rapidly just to match the county s population and employment growth. However, it is almost certain that transit demand will grow even faster than population and employment. The projected higher density of future development will enable the provision of better transit and increase the demand for transit at proportionally higher rates. Upward ridership and productivity trends in The T s services already show that more people are looking towards transit as a viable option to meet their transportation needs (see Figure 5-3).

6 Annual Ridership (100,000s/ Passenger per Vehicle Hour Subsidy per Passenger $8.00 $7.00 $ FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Passenger Trips (hundred thousands) Passengers per Hour Subsidy per Passenger Changing demographics are also driving demand for more and better transit, in particular due to three key groups: Baby boomers, who are aging and desire to drive less and use transit more. Millennials, who have a very strong desire to use the most convenient travel option for different types of trips rather than driving everywhere. In particular, Millennials want to use transit and other options more and to drive less. Minorities, including immigrants, who traditionally use transit to a much greater extent than other populations. Because demand is also increasing from within existing populations, demand has been growing and will continue to grow faster than underlying population growth. Baby boomers are quickly growing older. Many want to age in place, and most are remaining active for much longer than previous generations. However, as with older adults before them, they have a greater desire and need to use transit than middle-aged residents. In Tarrant County, the population of residents age 65 and older is projected to increase by 174% by 2040, far more than any other age group in the county (see Figure 5-4).

7 65 and older 174% % % Younger than 20 18% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Population Increase Throughout the United States, Millennials are driving demand for better transit. The Dallas-Fort Worth area was recently ranked as one of the best cities for Millennials in the country. 1 The Metroplex is growing, and a large share of that growth is projected to come from Millennials (the population of those between 20 and 35 years of age) their population is expected to grow by 31% between 2010 and Looking forward, better transit options will be crucial to attracting and retaining Millennials in Fort Worth and Tarrant County. A recent survey conducted on behalf of The Rockefeller Foundation and Transportation for America 2 reported that nearly two-thirds of Millennials nationwide view access to high quality transportation as one of the top three criteria when deciding where to live next. Key takeaways from the survey were: 54%of Millennial respondents would consider moving if another city had better transit options. 47% of Millennials would give up their cars if their city had robust public transportation. Cities that don t invest in effective transit solutions today stand to lose out in the long run. Minority residents use transit to a greater extent than non-minority residents. One major reason for this is that minority residents, on average, have lower incomes, and transit provides a much more affordable travel option than a private automobile. In addition, many minority residents are new immigrants and come from places where transit is much more commonly used than in the United States. The Fort Worth region has become increasingly diverse in recent years. In 2000, Tarrant County s population was 71% white, with barely 20% of the population identifying as Hispanic. Between 2010 and 2040, the percentage of white residents is projected to decline from 52% to 34%, while the county s Hispanic population is projected to increase to 41%, becoming the largest population group (see Figure 5-5). 1 Forbes Magazine, Best Cities and Neighborhoods for Millennials, April 14, Rockefeller Millennials Survey, April 2014.

8 % of Population 60% 52% 40% 41% 34% 27% 20% 15% 15% 7% 10% 0% White Hispanic Black Other The vast majority of The T s revenue comes from local sales taxes. The T receives dedicated revenue from a ½-cent sales tax administered in its member communities. This sales tax is a significant source of revenue for The T, representing approximately 41% of total revenue for service operations. In fiscal year (FY) 2015, revenues are projected to total about $157 million. However, only three of the 41 municipalities in Tarrant County are full members of The T. 3 This limited membership impedes the ability of The T to provide more comprehensive regional service in Tarrant County and also limits The T s revenue. Compared to other transit agencies in Texas that generate revenue through local sales taxes, The T s 0.5% tax rate is at the low end of the range (see Table 5-1), and the small number of member communities presents an additional funding challenge. Meeting the increasing demand for transit service in Tarrant County may rely on adding more communities as members as well as bolstering operating funds with additional sources of revenue. The limited amount of funding that The T receives translates to lower levels of service than may be expected with a service area of its size. Although The T s service area population is slightly smaller than that of the larger transit systems in Texas, the amount of service that it provides to its population is a fraction of that offered by other systems. For example, the Fort Worth service area is about 83% of Austin s service area in terms of population, but The T has only 60% of the vehicles and provides only 60% of the service in terms of service mileage (see Table 5-2). As a result, The T carries only one quarter of Austin s ridership. Compared to the major transit systems in Texas, The T provides proportionately less service based on its size and, as a result, carries significantly less ridership. 3 Grapevine is a partial member and contributes funding for planned TEX Rail service.

9 The T provides generally comprehensive service coverage in Fort Worth and within the I-820 loop. However, service frequencies and hours of service are very limited. Beyond the loop, where much of the county s growth has occurred, there is very little service. The combination of these factors means that service is either not attractive or not available to a broad cross-section of Tarrant County s population. The T operates 41 routes on weekdays, including seven express routes and two circulators that operate only during peak hours as well as three routes that operate one or two special trips per day. Weekday service also includes Molly the Trolley downtown circulator and the TCU Shuttle service. Excluding peakonly Express and Limited services, there are 26 routes that operate throughout the day and into the evening during weekdays. Significantly fewer routes operate on weekends 25 routes operate on Saturdays, and 16 run on Sundays.

10 Most riders consider service that operates every 10 minutes or less to be very convenient and service that operates every 15 minutes or less to be relatively convenient. Conversely, service that operates every 30 minutes or more becomes too infrequent for most travelers who have other opportunities to travel, such as driving. In terms of these common definitions of frequency, on weekdays during the day (through the end of the PM peak): Only four of The T s routes provide service every 15 minutes or better throughout the day on weekdays (see Table 3). Molly the Trolley and the TCU Shuttle are the only two routes in the system that operate every 10 minutes. 15 routes provide service every 16 to 30 minutes during peak periods, but only 10 during the midday. 10 routes provide service every 31 to 60 minutes during peak periods, and 13 during the midday. 10 routes provide only limited service (the Express routes and Limited/Other routes that only operate a limited number of trips during peak hours). On weekday evenings and on weekends, service is much less frequent. During these times, most routes operate every 60 minutes or less often. Only one route operates every 10 minutes on weekday evenings (Molly the Trolley), while the Spur* operates every 15 minutes until 7:00 p.m. On Saturdays, Molly the Trolley continues to run every 10 minutes, and five routes run every 15 to 30 minutes (including the Spur*). On Sunday, only Molly the Trolley and Route 1 North Main operate more often than once an hour. The lack of frequent service is one of the major issues facing The T, as relatively little service operates frequently enough for most potential riders to consider service to be convenient. The span of service meaning the hours that service operates during the day is a second factor that strongly influences the convenience of the transit system. The T s services operate for more limited hours than in most major metropolitan areas. On weekdays, the first trip departs at 4:45 a.m., which is early and consistent with other similar systems; most other routes begin by 6:00 a.m. However, the last trips depart at 10:51 p.m.; there

11 is no service that begins its last trip after 11:00 p.m. Moreover, most routes end service much earlier: only 16 of 41 routes have a trip that departs past 8:00 p.m. on weekdays. On Saturdays, most service begins by 6:00 a.m., which is reasonably early. However, service ends relatively early in the evenings, as it does on weekdays. Only 18 routes have trips departing after 8:00 p.m., and no service operates after 11:00 p.m. On Sundays, most routes begin operation between 6:00 and 8:00 a.m. One route, Molly the Trolley, operates until 10:00 p.m., but all other service ends by 8:30 p.m. Viewed together with the service frequencies described above, The T s service operates neither frequently enough nor late enough to provide the flexibility that most riders with other options require. This limited service makes it difficult for riders or potential riders with alternative schedules or second- and third-shift employment. It also poses a challenge to those who would use transit to reach social or entertainment activities in the evening if service were available. The T s service is almost entirely located within the I-820 loop around Fort Worth. Consequently, The T s service is currently most useful for those who both live and work within I-820 and very limited for those who need to travel to or from areas outside of this loop. This is the case even though much of the county s recent growth has occurred beyond I-820. As a result, service is provided to only a minority of the county s residents and workers. In many of these communities, transit demand is low, too low for transit to be both effective and productive. However, there are several areas with significant demand for transit that are unserved or only minimally served today. These areas include much of the eastern half of Tarrant County, generally located in an arc east and south of I-35W to the north and east of Route 287 (see Figure 5-6), in and around: Arlington Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Airport Grapevine Richland Hills/North Richland Hills Bedford and around Texas Health Harris Methodist Hospital White Settlement/Naval Air Station/Joint Reserve Base The major reason that The T does not provide more service in these areas is because, as described above, most communities are not members of The T. The consequence is that there are significant mismatches between transit demand and supply, including large areas with demand but little or no service. Just to meet current transit demands, The T will need to significantly expand service to new areas, provide more frequent service, and provide earlier and later service. Looking forward, these mismatches will only increase. Projections of future growth indicate that rapid growth will continue in areas beyond the I-820 loop by 2035, transit demand will generally be as high as within the loop (see Figure 5-7). The areas with the highest levels of new demand will be the same as those listed above, plus additional areas such as Alliance.

The T has already started to develop premium services, such as TRE commuter rail, Molly the Trolley, and the Spur* rapid bus line.

13 Throughout the country, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of new types of higher quality transit services. These include commuter rail, rapid transit, light rail, BRT, Rapid Bus, streetcar, and more. The T has already started to develop premium services, such as TRE commuter rail, Molly the Trolley, and the Spur* rapid bus line. However, with those exceptions, many of The T s most important bus routes continue to provide regular local service. To develop a great transit system, The T and its regional partners will need to significantly expand efforts to develop premium services. Developing a High Capacity Transit Network of BRT, Rapid Bus, and other high quality services as has been done in other cities (see Figure 4-8) would make it convenient to travel throughout Tarrant County. While the specific types of high quality services that would be included in this network have not yet been determined, a High Capacity Transit Network consisting of premium services will be a key element in developing more compelling transit service. Largely due to the issues described above, The T is viewed as providing transit service only for those without other options, particularly low-income residents and people with disabilities, and not for a broad cross-section of Tarrant County s residents, workers, and visitors. As a tacit reflection of this, many of the newer services that The T has developed have been branded primarily as something other than The T. Examples include TRE, Molly the Trolley, MAX in Arlington, and planned TEX Rail service.

14 The services that use different brands are viewed more favorably by many, and to this extent, the unique branding efforts have been successful. However, the use of different brands also means that many potential riders view available services as separate from the overall system. As a result, the whole is not greater than the sum of its parts. With the development of a stronger system, The T will need to address this image problem. Potential solutions include strengthening The T s brand, rebranding other services to better identify them with The T, or developing a new brand altogether. The T has maintained and added services as its resources have allowed. In recent years, those improvements have included the Spur* service, Molly the Trolley, TRE (and forthcoming TEX Rail), and the Intermodal Transportation Center. However, The T s resources have not nearly kept pace with the county s growth and the demand for better transit. As a result, Fort Worth has become a much larger city in a major metropolitan area, but it has a transit system designed to serve a small city. In addition, demographic and attitudinal changes mean that the demand for better transit is growing faster than just population or employment. Baby boomers who are growing older want to drive less and take transit more. Millennials want many more travel choices, but are particularly interested in better transit. Minorities, who traditionally use transit in very high numbers, will comprise most of the county s population by The T needs to catch up with the growth that has already occurred and continue to expand at a faster pace to keep up with projected growth in Tarrant County. To achieve this, major transit investments will be needed, both to address the issues described above and to develop a more robust system that will be attractive to a much broader cross-section of Tarrant County s residents, workers, and visitors.

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