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Cory Wheeler
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service between Fort Worth and Dallas, the Spur* premium bus service, and additional bus service.

3 Texas is one of the fastest growing states in the country, and Fort Worth and Tarrant County are among the fastest growing places in Texas. The T has taken important steps to improve transit service to support this growth; recent improvements have included the downtown Fort Worth Intermodal Transportation Center (ITC), TRE commuter rail service between Fort Worth and Dallas, the Spur* premium bus service, and additional bus service. The next major capital improvement will be new TEX Rail service between Fort Worth and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Still, growth in Tarrant County has outpaced these improvements and general growth of the transit system. The T Master Plan is the vision for transit in Tarrant County and beyond. The plan will recommend the actions needed for The T to provide great transit service over the next 20 years, with a particular focus on what can be accomplished in the next five years. The T Master Plan will look at the transit service that exists today, identify the opportunities to expand transit service to meet the growing needs of the region, and determine how to make it all happen. Ultimately, the plan will provide a blueprint for transit improvements designed make Tarrant County a better place to live and do business. The State of the System Report provides an overview of existing transit services, current and future transit demand, an assessment of how well The T s current services meet that demand, and the issues that The T must address to develop a great transit system. Major issues include: Fort Worth has grown from a small city to a medium-sized city in a major metropolitan area. However, the area s population and employment have grown much faster than The T s system. Tarrant County s population will continue to grow, and increasing shares of older adults, Millennials, and minority residents will contribute to much higher demand for transit service. Limited avenues of funding, especially from local sources, have long constrained The T s ability to increase and expand transit service. Fort Worth and Tarrant County will continue to grow rapidly much more rapidly than The T will be able to expand service based on current funding levels.. Transit investment in the Fort Worth area is much lower than in most current peer cities. Consequently, service levels and transit ridership are also lower. Even more importantly, Fort Worth and Tarrant County are growing rapidly and becoming a region that will have significantly greater transit needs. In comparison to cities that are already like what Fort Worth is growing to become, transit investment lags even more significantly.

4 The T s services are very limited in terms of how frequently it operates and the hours that it operates. As a result, transit is not a convenient or attractive option for many of the county s residents and employees who have other options. Most of The T s services are provided within the I-820 loop, yet much of the county s recent growth has been to the north, northeast, and east of the loop. There is a significant and growing demand for transit in these areas, but very little service. Throughout the country, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of new types of higher-quality transit services. These include commuter rail, light rail, Bus Rapid Transit, Rapid Bus, streetcar, and more. As indicated by the development of TRE, Molly the Trolley, and the Spur* rapid bus line, The T has already started to develop premium services. However, with those exceptions, many of The T s most important bus routes continue to provide regular local service. Experience from nearby Dallas and throughout the country shows that the development of premium transit service will attract more riders and a much broader cross-section of an area s population. Major transit investments will be needed to address the issues described above and to develop a more robust system that will be attractive to a much broader cross-section of Tarrant County s residents, workers, and visitors. The input from stakeholders that has been received as part of this project (and particularly during stakeholder interviews) indicates that many view the services provided by The T as being only for those without other options, particularly low-income residents and people with disabilities, and not for the broader population. This perception reflects reality to a certain extent and is a consequence of the issues described above. The T operates a network of bus services that generally radiate outward from downtown Fort Worth to serve areas largely within the I-820 loop, plus complementary paratransit services. Through partnerships with public and private organizations, The T is also involved in the provision of TRE services between Fort Worth and Dallas, TRE feeder service between Arlington and TRE, and shuttle service between DFW and Grapevine. The services that The T directly provides include: 41 weekday fixed-route bus routes, including an enhanced bus line called the Spur*, that serve residents primarily in the city of Fort Worth and small surrounding communities. Door-to-door demand response service, called Mobility-Impaired Transportation Service (MITS), which provides service to those who are unable to use fixed-route service. The services that The T provides through partnerships include: TRE commuter rail service between Fort Worth and Dallas, which is jointly operated with Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART).

5 Metro ArlingtonXpress (MAX) service that provides feeder service between Arlington and TRE s CentrePort Station. This service is provided through a partnership between The T, the City of Arlington, the Arlington Chamber of Commerce, DART, and the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA). The Grapevine shuttle between DFW and Grapevine, which is provided through a partnership between The T and the City of Grapevine. There are significant mismatches between transit demand and supply. When The T was established in 1983, nearly all demand was within the I-820 loop; thus, The T focused its services in that area. However, as Fort Worth and Tarrant County have grown, development and transit demand have grown outward primarily to the east and northeast as Fort Worth and Dallas have grown closer together. While DART has expanded its services aggressively as Dallas County has grown, the geographic scope of The T s services have remained largely within the I-820 loop. This has been the case because only three communities (Fort Worth, Richland Hills, and Blue Mound) are members of The T. Even within its member communities, The T s ability to expand its services to match growth has been constrained by lower sales tax revenues (0.5% versus 1.0% for DART). As a result, service is only provided to a minority of Tarrant County s residents and workers. At present, there are several areas with significant demand for transit that are unserved or only minimally served (see Figure ES-1). By 2035, transit demand outside of I-820 will be similar to within it (see Figure ES-2). Areas with significant transit demand but little or no service include much of the eastern half of the county, generally located in an arc east of I-35W to north and east of Route 287, in and around: Arlington DFW Airport Grapevine Richland Hills/North Richland Hills Bedford/Euless and around Texas Health Harris Methodist Hospital White Settlement/Naval Air Station/Joint Reserve Base Just to meet current transit demands, The T will need to significantly expand service to new areas, provide more frequent service, and provide earlier and later service. Looking forward to 2035, The T will need to grow rapidly just to match the county s population and employment growth. Additionally, it is almost certain that transit demand will grow even faster than population and employment because new development is projected to be denser. Denser development, in turn, will enable the provision of better transit and increase the demand for transit at proportionally higher rates. Societal changes, such as greater preferences among Millennials to use transit and the desire by Baby Boomers to remain independent, will also increase transit demand. Through 2035: Demand will significantly increase in downtown Fort Worth, as well as neighborhoods to the west and southwest. These areas are projected to have combined population and employment levels that would support very frequent service. The demand for transit in Arlington and immediately surrounding areas will increase dramatically, and there will be demand for frequent service in and around downtown and UTA. Demand for transit will emerge or significantly grow in areas to the northeast, including Richland Hills, North Richland Hills, Euless, Bedford, and Grapevine, including DFW. Demand will also emerge in southwest Fort Worth near Hulen Mall and along I-20.

As a result, the amount of service that must be provided to

6 Note: These maps indicate underlying transit demand on a block group basis, and all routes serve many block groups. As a result, the amount of service that must be provided to serve multiple block groups is higher than indicated for a single block group.

7 A peer review was conducted to compare The T s performance with that of transit systems in three sets of peer cities/urban areas. These included: 1. Current peers, which represent other urban areas that are similar to Fort Worth as it is today 2. Aspirational peers, which are cities that today are similar to what Fort Worth is growing to become 3. Other large Texas transit systems, to account for the unique characteristics and challenges related to providing transit service in Texas This peer review reveals that transit investment in the Fort Worth area is much lower than in most current peer cities. Consequently, transit ridership is also lower. Even more importantly, Fort Worth and Tarrant County are growing rapidly and becoming a region that will have significantly greater transit needs. In comparison to cities that are already like what Fort Worth is growing to become, transit investment lags even more significantly. Compared to its current peers, the service that The T provides is generally well below average. Among the 15 transit systems in the current peer areas, Fort Worth ranks: 11 th in terms of operating funding per capita Second to last in terms of the amount of service provided per capita Last in terms of transit ridership per capita Compared to the aspirational peers and other major Texas systems, Fort Worth ranks last in all three measures, and usually by a large margin. Compared to other major Texas transit systems the differences are particularly stark (see Figure ES-3). Operating Funding per Capita Annual Service Hours per Capita Ridership per Capita Dallas $ Austin 1.6 Austin 38.8 Austin $ Dallas 1.3 San Antonio 29.6 Peer Average $ Peer Median 1.2 Peer Median 29.1 Peer Median $ San Antonio 1.2 Dallas 29.1 Houston $ Peer Average 1.2 Peer Average 26.0 San Antonio $98.26 Houston 1.2 Houston 22.9 Fort Worth $71.32 Fort Worth 0.7 Fort Worth 9.5 $0 $100 $200 $

8 Population (thousands) Tarrant County has grown significantly in the last 30 years, and is projected to continue growing for the next 30 years as well. Since 1980, Fort Worth s population has doubled from 400,000 to 800,000 people. Between 2000 and 2013 alone, the city of Fort Worth grew by 42% and ranked as the fastest-growing city in the U.S. with a population of more than 500,000. Looking forward, rapid growth will continue. By 2040, Tarrant County s population is projected to increase by another 40%, from 1.8 million to 2.5 million (see Figure ES-4). 3,000 2,500 Tarrant County Projected Population Growth 2.5 million 2,000 1, million 1, Despite the ongoing growth in Tarrant County, The T s bus system has remained relatively unchanged during this time. As shown in Figure ES-5, individual routes have changed over time but the amount of service coverage has not changed substantially most service is still limited to within the I-820 loop, with little service outside this boundary. Looking forward, The T will need to grow rapidly just to match the county s population and employment growth. Additionally, it is almost certain that transit demand will grow even faster than population and employment. The projected higher density of future development will enable the provision of better transit and will increase the demand for transit at proportionally higher rates. Upward ridership and productivity trends in The T s services already show that more people are looking to transit as a viable option to meet their transportation needs.

10 Changing demographics are also driving demand for more and better transit, in particular due to three key groups: Baby Boomers, who are aging and desire to drive less and use transit more. Millennials, who have a very strong desire to use the most convenient travel option for different types of trips rather than driving everywhere. In particular, Millennials want to use transit and other options more and to drive less. Minorities, including immigrants, who traditionally use transit to a much greater extent than other populations. Because demand is also increasing from within existing populations, transit demand has been growing and will continue to grow faster than underlying population growth. Baby Boomers are quickly growing older. Many want to age in place, and most are remaining active for much longer. However, as with older adults before them, they have a greater desire and need to use transit than middle-aged residents. In Tarrant County, the population of residents age 65 and older is projected to increase by 174% by 2040, far more than any other age group in the county (see ES-6). 65 and older 174% % % Younger than 20 18% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Population Increase Throughout the United States, Millennials are driving demand for better transit. The cities of Dallas and Fort Worth were recently ranked among the best cities for Millennials in the country. 1 The Metroplex is growing, and a large share of that growth 31% between 2010 and 2040 is projected to come from Millennials, the population between 20 and 35 years of age. Looking forward, better transit options will be crucial to attracting and retaining Millennials in Fort Worth and Tarrant County. Minority residents use transit to a greater extent than non-minority residents. One major reason for this is that minority residents, on average, have lower incomes, and transit provides a much more affordable travel option than private automobiles. In addition, many minority residents are new immigrants, who come from places where transit is much more commonly used. 1 Forbes Magazine, Best Cities and Neighborhoods for Millennials, April 14, 2014.

11 % of Population 60% 52% 40% 41% 34% 27% 20% 15% 15% 7% 10% 0% White Hispanic Black Other The vast majority of The T s revenue comes from local sales taxes. The T receives dedicated revenue from a ½-cent sales tax administered in its member communities. This sales tax is a significant source of revenue for The T, representing approximately 41% of total revenue for service operations. In 2015, revenues are projected to total about $157 million. However, only three of the 41 municipalities in Tarrant County are full members of The T. 2 This limited membership impedes the ability of The T to provide more comprehensive regional service in Tarrant County and also limits the amount of revenue that The T receives. Compared to other transit agencies in Texas that generate revenue through local sales taxes, The T s 0.5% tax rate is at the low end of the range (see Table ES-1). Furthermore, the small number of member communities presents an additional funding challenge. Meeting the increasing demand for transit service in Tarrant County may rely on adding more communities as members as well as bolstering operating funds with additional sources of revenue. 2 Grapevine is a partial member and contributes funding for planned TEX Rail service.

12 The limited amount of funding that The T receives translates to lower levels of service than may be expected within a service area of its size. Although The T s service area population is slightly smaller than that of the larger transit systems in Texas, the amount of service that it provides to its population is a fraction of that offered by other systems. For example, the Fort Worth service area is about 83% of Austin s in terms of population, but it has only 60% of the vehicles and provides only 60% of the service in terms of service mileage (see Table ES-2). As a result, The T carries only one quarter of Austin s ridership. Compared to the major transit systems in Texas, The T provides proportionately less service based on its size and, as a result, carries significantly less ridership. The T provides generally comprehensive service coverage in Fort Worth and within the I-820 loop. However, service frequencies and hours of service are very limited. Beyond the loop, where much of the county s growth has occurred, there is very little service. The combination of these factors means that service is either not attractive or not available to a broad cross-section of Tarrant County s population. The T operates 41 routes on weekdays, in addition to the Molly the Trolley downtown circulator and the TCU Shuttle service. Excluding peak-only Express and Limited services, there are 26 routes that operate throughout the day and into the evening during weekdays. Significantly fewer routes operate on weekends: 25 routes operate on Saturday, and 16 run on Sunday. Most riders consider service that operates every 10 minutes or less as very convenient, and service that operates every 15 minutes or less as relatively convenient. Conversely, service that operates every 30 minutes or more becomes too infrequent for most people who have other travel options, such as driving. The lack of frequent service is one of the major issues facing The T only four routes provide service every 15 minutes or better throughout the day on weekdays. The hours that service operates during the day is another factor that strongly influences the convenience of a transit system. The T s services operate for more limited hours than in most major metropolitan areas, with most routes ending service by 8:00 p.m. Viewed together with the service frequencies described above, The T s service operates neither frequently enough nor late enough to provide the flexibility that most riders with other options require. This limited service makes it difficult for riders or potential riders with alternative schedules or second- and third-shift employment. It also poses a challenge to those who would use transit to reach social or entertainment activities in the evening if service were available.

The T s service is almost entirely located within the I-820 loop around Fort Worth.

The major reason that The T does not provide more service in these areas is because, as described above, most communities are not members of The T.

Just to meet current transit demands, The T will need to significantly expand service to new areas, provide more frequent service, and provide earlier and later service.

13 The T s service is almost entirely located within the I-820 loop around Fort Worth. Consequently, The T s service is currently most useful for those who both live and work within I-820 and is very limited for those who need to travel to or from areas outside of this loop. The major reason that The T does not provide more service in these areas is because, as described above, most communities are not members of The T. The consequence is that there are significant mismatches between transit demand and supply, including large areas with demand but little or no service (as shown earlier in Figure ES-1). Just to meet current transit demands, The T will need to significantly expand service to new areas, provide more frequent service, and provide earlier and later service. Looking forward, these mismatches will only increase. Projections indicate that rapid growth will continue in areas beyond the loop, and by 2035, transit demand will generally be as high as within the loop (as shown earlier in Figure ES-2). Throughout the country, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of new types of higher quality transit services. These include commuter rail, rapid transit, light rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Rapid Bus, streetcar, and more. The T has already started to develop premium services, such as TRE commuter rail, Molly the Trolley, and the Spur* rapid bus line. However, with those exceptions, many of The T s most important bus routes continue to provide regular local service. To develop a great transit system, The T and its regional partners will need to significantly expand efforts to develop premium services. The development of a High Capacity Transit Network of BRT, Rapid Bus, and other high quality services, as seen in other cities, would make it convenient to travel throughout Tarrant County by transit. While the specific types of high-quality services that would be included in this network have not yet been determined, a High Capacity Transit Network consisting of premium services will be a key element in developing more compelling transit service. Largely due to the issues described above, The T is viewed as providing transit service only for those without other options, particularly low-income residents and people with disabilities, and not for a broad cross-section of Tarrant County s residents, workers, and visitors. As a tacit reflection of this, many of the

14 newer services that The T has developed have been branded primarily as something other than The T. Examples include TRE, Molly the Trolley, MAX in Arlington, and planned TEX Rail service. The services that use different brands are viewed more favorably by many, and to this extent, the unique branding efforts have been successful. However, the use of different brands also means that many potential riders view available services as separate from the overall system. As a result, the whole is not greater than the sum of its parts. With the development of a stronger system, The T will need to address this image problem. Potential solutions include strengthening The T brand, rebranding other services to better identify them with The T, or developing a new brand altogether. The T has maintained and added services as its resources have allowed. In recent years, those improvements have included the Spur* service, Molly the Trolley, TRE (and forthcoming TEX Rail), and the Intermodal Transportation Center. However, The T s resources have not nearly kept pace with the county s growth and the demand for better transit. As a result, Fort Worth has become a much larger city in a major metropolitan area, but it has a transit system designed to serve a small city. In addition, demographic and attitudinal changes mean that the demand for better transit is growing faster than just population or employment. Baby boomers who are growing older want to drive less and take transit more. Millennials want many more travel choices but are particularly interested in better transit. Minorities who traditionally use transit in very high numbers will comprise most of the county s population by The T needs to catch up with the growth that has already occurred as well as continue to expand at a faster pace to keep up with projected growth in Tarrant County. To achieve this, major transit investments will be needed, both to address the issues described above and to develop a more robust system that will be attractive to a much broader cross-section of Tarrant County s residents, workers, and visitors.

Tarrant County Projected Population Growth

Tarrant County Projected Population Growth Based on the information provided in the preceding chapters, it is apparent that there are a number of issues that must be addressed as The T works to develop an excellent transit system for Fort Worth