German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Vehicle Concepts

Transcription

1 erman Aerospace Center (LR) Electromobility+ Brokerage Event January 13, 2011 Cologne, ermany Bernd Propfe

2 erman Aerospace Center (LR) employees work at 29 research institutions at 13 different locations Backup The LR is organized in 4 research areas Aeronautics Space Transport Energy Space Agency Project Management Agency Hamburg Bremen- Neustrelitz Trauen Berlin- Braunschweig öttingen Köln Bonn Lampoldshausen Stuttgart Weilheim Oberpfaffenhofen Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 2

3 Portfolio of the Research Area Transport The research area is divided into three main sub-areas, all dealing with research topics regarding surface transportation Backup Research Area Transport Mobility, Environment, Safety, Economy Terrestrial vehicles Traffic management Transport systems Road vehicles Rail vehicles Road traffic management Rail traffic management Airport management Sea traffic management Traffic management for major events and disasters Transport development and the environment Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 3

4 Our institute is organized in three research areas Alternative Powertrains & Energy Conversion Electification of the power train Alternative methods for energy conversion Wheel-integrated electric propulsion Energy storage systems Lightweight and Hybrid esign Methods Modularized lightweight design Mulit-material design and structures Spaceframe designs Innovative car and rail body designs Technology Evaluation Integrated assessment of vehicle technologies LCA Technical / economical analyses (e.g. Li-Ion battery cost model) Scenario based simulation of market penetrations Innovative vehicle concepts for a sustainable transportation system (road & rail) Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 4

5 Scenario model: VECTOR21 Modeling both technology supply and customer demand Backup energy consumption technology costs fuel prices, taxes, computer model fuel economy packages vehicle size vehicle size powertrain concept vehicle choice customer (900 types) adopter group type of fuel technical parts annual mileage willingness-to-pay sales / market shares CO 2 emissions Source: LR, VECTOR21 Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 5

6 VECTOR21 Vehicle technologies scenario model Our model is capable of simulating the competition of car and fuel technologies. Currently, it is calibrated for the erman passenger car market Example scenario Scenario parameters New Vehicle Fleet Fleet Stock 10 Hyb 5 CN Hyb 5 CN CN CNHyb Oil price Electricity price/mix and CO 2 balance Hydrogen price and CO 2 balance Infrastructure (H 2 and e ) Taxes and policies Subsidies and penalties, including CO 2 targets for the new vehicle fleet WTP of customers Technical developments, including learning curves for new technologies (batteries, fuel cells, e-motors, ) Extension to European level would lead to significant synergies : asoline, : iesel, CN: Compressed natural gas, Hyb: Hybrid versions (all), : Battery electric vehicle, FCV: Fuel cell vehicle, : Extended-range electric vehicle Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 6

7 VECTOR21 Scenario 1 vs. Scenario 2 Our model is capable of simulating the future erman vehicle fleet Backup New Vehicle Fleet 10 Hyb CN Scenario 1 Scenario 2 CN 10 CN FCV CN Hyb Fleet Stock 10 Hyb CN CNHyb 10 CN 5 5 CN Hyb : asoline, : iesel, CN: Compressed natural gas, Hyb: Hybrid versions (all), : Battery electric vehicle, FCV: Fuel cell vehicle, : Extended-range electric vehicle Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 7

8 Project proposal - Electromobility+ In order to respond to the Quantitative horizons for a low-carbon vehicle fleet (1b), our project proposal combines several topics named in the call Vehicle Technologies Exogenous Factors Quantitative horizons for a lowcarbon vehicle fleet (1b) Vehicle Technologies Competition Model evelopment Energy (User) Cost Policies / Regulations (incl. taxes) User profiles (incl. WTP 1 ) etailed, realistic scenarios for potential size of PHEV FCEV Horizon: 2030 Several scenarios for low carbon vehicle market penetration National dimensions 1: WTP: Willingness-to-pay Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 8

9 BACK UP Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 9

10 We are looking for project partners! erman Aerospace Center Bernd Propfe > LR electromobilty brokerage event Slide 10