Major Automakers Make Their Moves

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1 A Better March, But Longer-Term Challenges Three of the major light-vehicle sales forecasting services LMC Automotive/JD Power, Edmunds and Cox Automotive predicted March 2018 sales would increase 3% from March 2017, becoming the best March since Actual sales generated more than twice the predicted increase, or 6.5%. March also had the largest year-over-year increase since September 2017 and the second month during Q1 2018, the other being January, with an increase. Keep in mind, however, March 2018 has one additional selling day and one additional selling weekend, compared to March In addition, LMC Automotive/JD Power and Edmunds projections are for 16.9 million units (annualized selling rate), resulting in the first month since August 2017, when the annualized rate would be less than 17 million units. Although consumer confidence is still very high, Wall Street volatility and the political climate in Washington have caused some cautiousness among buyers. Plus, the Federal Reserve s recent interest rate increase and the expectation of three more during 2018 will increase the interest rates on new-vehicle purchases and, therefore, monthly payments. Vehicle makers continue to push the sale of light trucks, as they are expected to be two-thirds of all light vehicles sold during March, the most during any March. Incentives, therefore, have increased $160 for light trucks, but decreased $54 for cars during the first half of March. A trend that is unlikely to be sustainable. Major Automakers Make Their Moves Although new light-vehicle sales remain relatively strong, the major automakers always try to strategize for the long-term view, which led to a number of major moves, recently. The most significant is the discussion between Nissan and Renault to merge into a new company. The two companies have been allied for approximately 20 years. Today, Renault owns 43% of Nissan while Nissan owns 15% of Renault. The merger is a play to be more competitive, especially with Volkswagen, the largest vehicle producer in the world, and Toyota. During late March, 15 auto makers, including Ford, GM, Honda, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen, and 7 Northeastern US states announced a campaign to promote electric vehicles (EVs), Drive Change. Drive Electric. The coalition s purpose is to educate consumers about the many available and affordable EVs they should consider as alternative choices. As more consumers want to spend less time at a dealership for the buying process (see page 2), Ford announced during midmarch it has expanded its online Ready. Shop. Go program, which has been tested in 5 states, to the entire Midwest. The program puts more of the buying process online, but consumers will still have to visit a dealership to complete a deal. 1

2 MARKETING FORWARD Dealerships Continue to Misunderstand Today s Customers Undoubtedly, many local dealers recognize the industry is changing rapidly, but, with all due respect, many are still relying on a traditional business model, which doesn t match with how consumers want to shop for a vehicle. An early-2018 Automotive News special report listed 5 critical challenges for dealers who operate according to the old business model. 1. Customers have very little trust in most dealership salespeople. Consumers may also be clinging to the old ways, as Gallup polls have consistently found Americans actually trust the members of the US Congress slightly more than dealership salespeople, 11% and 10%, respectively (which is quite an indictment). 2. With light-vehicle shoppers spending an average of more than 14 hours online of pre-purchase research, many know more about the products than the salespeople tasked with selling them. 3. Too many dealerships are still relying on a sales process with 10 to 15, or more, steps, which runs totally counter to the research that consumers want to spend no more than 1 hour at a dealership. 4. Often, the reason any current dealership sales staff is less knowledgeable about their products is the enormous turnover rate. With so many new salespeople, they haven t had enough training or experience to be as helpful as consumers would expect them to be. 5. Internet research makes it easy for consumers to compare prices, so not only must dealers be competitive, but also they must post their prices online, which is information they have always jealously guarded. New Data on Automotive Social Media In new research from Maritz CX (released March 2018) of more than 13,000 US consumers who responded to a November 2017 survey and who had purchase a 2015 to 2017 model-year vehicle, 56% had read social media reviews during their vehicle purchase consideration. Not surprisingly, those adults 35 years of age and younger were the largest percentage, or 61%, but even those 55+, at 51%, were also reading reviews. Of those participating in the survey, 45% said social media reviews were useful when making a brand decision and 56% for their model decision. A lower percentage (38%) of respondents said they read social media reviews to choose a dealership. The youngest adults, again, had the highest percentage, or 51%, and adults 35 54, 41%, and adults 55+, 28%. WEBSITES/SOCIAL MEDIA SITES USE FOR VEHICLE AND DEALERSHIP REVIEWS, NOV Vehicle Percent Dealership Percent Edmunds 31% Google 32% Google 21% Edmunds 12% Facebook 4% Facebook 11% DealerRater 4% DealerRater 11% Maritz CX, March

3 ROAD SIGNS Overlooking the Lessons of History Are major automakers disregarding the lessons from the earliest years of the automobile era when addressing the potentially major disruption of ride-hailing and shared mobility technology? According to a March 2018 NADA survey of 1,200 consumers, 90% said they prefer owning an automobile than using an app to arrange for a ride from Uber, Lyft, etc. Such an attitude seems eerily similar to how Americans first felt about the horseless carriage. In a November 1895 newspaper interview, Thomas Edison said, Talking of horseless carriages suggests to my mind that the horse is doomed. Ten years from now you will be able to buy a horseless vehicle for what you would pay today for a wagon and a pair of horses. The conclusions from the NADA survey were consumers overwhelmingly prefer the freedom and flexibility of owning a personal vehicle to ride-hailing services and ride-hailing will continue to supplement personal vehicle ownership going forward, but it will not supplant it. Change a few words in those statements and it could have come from anyone in the horseand-buggy business of the late 19th century. A very credible source, Credit Suisse, forecasts global car production will flatline during The primary disruptor will be fleets of self-driving vehicles, which will be available everywhere, at any time. The potential of being continuously in service and without a costly driver is an economic advantage against which the ownership of today s horseless carriage and where you buy them will be unlikely to compete. Automakers Accelerate into the Future Without accusing automakers of talking from both sides of their mouths, many seem to be heeding the lessons of history. General Motors is one automaker aware of new trends and is responding to their ultimate advantage. It announced during March the launch of a pilot program during summer 2018 called Maven Gig, a new initiative from its Maven car-sharing unit. In simplest terms, anyone who owns a GM vehicle will be able to list it with Maven to rent to consumers and share the generated revenues with GM. This is in obvious response to the rapid growth of Turo, an online service providing peer-to-peer car rental, thus, bypassing traditional car rental companies. Turo now has approximately 5 million people registered on the site and 200,000 privately owned vehicles listed there. During late March 2018, Waymo, Alphabet s (Google s parent company) self-driving vehicle division, and Jaguar Land Rover announced plans to build 20,000 self-driving electric SUVs. Jaguar s I-Pace Land Rover will be tested during late 2018 and will become part of the Waymo commercial ride-hailing service during 2020, and with a goal of 1 million daily trips. 3

4 MONTHLY AUTOMOBILE SALES CHART RANK AUTOMAKER MARCH 2018 % CHANGE FROM MARCH YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2017 YEAR TO DATE #1 Ford 233, % 574, % #2 Chevrolet 199, % 490, % #3 Toyota 195, % 507, % #4 Nissan 145, % 375, % #5 Honda 128, % 329, % #6 Jeep 98, % 228, % #7 Hyundai 60, % 144, % #8 Subaru 58, % 149, % #9 GMC 55, % 131, % #10 Kia 50, % 126, % #11 Dodge 49, % 116, % #12 Ram 44, % 113, % #13 Mazda 33, % 83, % #14 Volkswagen 32, % 83, % #15 BMW 31, % 73, % #16 Mercedes-Benz* 28, % 78, % #17 Lexus 27, % 64, % #18 Buick 26, % 56, % #19 Audi 20, % 50, % #20 Chrysler 19, % 46, % #21 Infiniti 17, % 40, % #22 Cadillac 14, % 36, % #23 Mitsubishi 14, % 35, % #24 Acura 13, % 33, % #25 Land Rover 10, % 24, % #26 Lincoln 9, % 22, % #27 Volvo 8, % 20, % #28 Tesla 6, % 18, % #29 Porsche 4, % 13, % #30 Mini 4, % 10, % #31 Jaguar 3, % 8, % 4

5 RANK AUTOMAKER MARCH 2018 % CHANGE FROM MARCH YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2017 YEAR TO DATE #32 Alfa Romeo 2, % 5, % #33 Fiat 1, % 4, % #34 Genesis 1, % 4, % #35 Maserati % 2, % #36 Bentley % % #37 Smart % % General Motors 296, % 715, % Ford Motor Company 243, % 596, % Toyota Motor Corporation 222, % 572, % FCA/Chrysler Group 216, % 517, % Nissan Motor Company/Infiniti / 176, % 451, % Mitsubishi American Honda Motor Company 142, % 362, % Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group 112, % 275, % Volkswagen Group 57, % 148, % Daimler AG 31, % 86, % BMW Group 35, % 84, % Jaguar/Land Rover 14, % 32, % TOTAL 1,655, % 4,116, % Source: Automakers and ANDC * Includes Mercedes-Benz vans Includes Audi, Bentley, Porsche and Volkswagen brands, but not Lamborghini Industry total takes into account Automotive News figures/estimates for brands, such as Tesla and other low-volume, high-priced manufacturers Media Group Online, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources: Automotive News Website: Bloomberg Website: campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews Mashable Website: Maritz CX Website: History Website: The Saturday Evening Post Website: GeoMarketing Website: source=geomarketing+newsletter&utm_campaign=885ebc1d84- _campaign_2018_03_28&utm_medium= &utm_term=0_379f34961c- 885ebc1d The Drive Website: Ad Age Website: The Verge Website: Good Car Bad Car Website: 5