David Leard, Edward Potthoff, Andrew de Garmo and Kevin Welch

Transcription

1 Technical Memorandum Technical Memorandum Date: Monday, June 22, 2015 Project: To: From: Subject: Albuquerque Rapid Transit Study David Leard, Edward Potthoff, Andrew de Garmo and Kevin Welch Vijay Mahal, Nicholas Karcz Central Avenue ART Ridership Results 1 Introduction This technical memorandum discusses the ridership forecast for the Albuquerque Rapid Transit (ART) study in the Albuquerque area. This memorandum is divided into four sections: Introduction, STOPS Model Overview, Service Scenarios, and Ridership Results. 1.1 Central Avenue Corridor Description For ridership modeling purposes, the Central Avenue Corridor is the area around Central Avenue between Tramway and Unser Boulevards and is entirely located within the City of Albuquerque. The nearly 15-mile corridor travels through a variety of land uses: West of Downtown: Single-family and multi-family housing, park/recreation uses, retail, and commercial services. Downtown Area: Multi-family housing, commercial services and public/institutional uses. East of Downtown to San Mateo Boulevard: Single-family and multi-family housing, retail, commercial services, and public/institutional uses. San Mateo Boulevard to Tramway Boulevard: Single-family and multi-family housing, retail, and commercial services. Louisiana to Uptown Transit Center: Single-family and multi-family, park/recreation uses, retail, and commercial services. Several activity centers are located in the corridor and include: Bio Park Old Town Downtown Presbyterian Hospital University of New Mexico Nob Hill Expo New Mexico (State Fairgrounds) Page 1

2 Introduction Uptown The Central Avenue Corridor is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Central Avenue Corridor 1.2 Description of the Existing Transit System The City of Albuquerque Transit Department (ABQ RIDE) is the transit provider in Albuquerque, New Mexico. ABQ RIDE operates 40 routes that serve nearly 45,000 passengers daily (NTD, RY 2013). Four types of transit service are included in the system: local bus, commuter bus, a free downtown shuttle, and rapid ride. Figure 2 shows the transit services that operate in the ABQ RIDE service area Local Bus Service Local bus service is provided by 21 bus routes. The majority of these routes operate service seven days a week, while about a third operate five to six days a week. On an average weekday, bus service begins around 5:30 AM and ends around 7:00 PM, with half of the routes providing later service until 10:00 PM. Route 66 is the local bus route that operates within the Central Avenue Corridor. This route provides Page 2

3 Introduction service seven days a week. On an average weekday, service on Route 66 begins at approximately 5:30 AM and ends just after midnight, with 15-minute frequency for the majority of the service span Commuter Bus Service There are sixteen commuter bus routes that operate in the Albuquerque area. These routes operate Monday through Friday almost entirely during the morning and evening peaks, providing inbound and outbound service. Half of these routes terminate at the downtown Alvarado Transit Center, which provides access to the commuter rail service, the New Mexico Rail Runner Free Downtown Shuttle Service The D-Ride is a free downtown circulator that operates on weekdays with seven-minute frequency, providing access from the Alvarado Transit Center to various downtown points of interest Rapid Ride Service Rapid Ride is a collection of limited-stop bus routes that operate using Rapid Ride branded 60-foot articulated buses as well as defined bus stops. Three of these bus routes currently operate in Albuquerque, with two routes operating seven days a week and one route operating six days a week. In the Central Avenue Corridor, two routes operate: Route 766 (Red Line): Provides service from the Uptown Transit Center to the Central & Unser Transit Center via Louisiana Boulevard and Central Avenue. Service is provided seven days a week, with a weekday frequency of 16 minutes in the morning, midday, and evening. Route 777 (Green Line): Provides service from Tramway Boulevard to the Alvarado Transit Center via Central Avenue. Service is provided seven days a week, with a weekday frequency of 16 minutes in the morning, midday, and evening Additional Transit Providers Additional transit service is provided by the Rio Metro Regional Transit District (Rio Metro) which operates small urban and rural transit in Bernalillo, Sandoval, and Valencia counties. Rio Metro also funds some bus service operated by ABQ RIDE and described above. In addition to bus service, Rio Metro is responsible for the management of the commuter rail service, the New Mexico Rail Runner Express, which provides service between the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas. Page 3

4 Introduction Figure 2: ABQ RIDE Transit Services Page 4

5 STOPS Overview 1.3 Central Avenue Project Description The Central Avenue project will utilize the existing Route 766 (Red Line) and a modified version of Route 777 (Green Line) to provide enhanced service west of Louisiana to the Central & Unser Transit Center in a dedicated guideway. Figure 3 identifies the Central Avenue Project. All stations that are west of Louisiana Boulevard are defined as Project Stations, while any stations east and north of Louisiana and Central are considered Non-Project Stations. A detailed explanation of the project will be described in Section 3.3. Figure 3: Central Avenue Project 2 STOPS Overview The ridership forecast for the Albuquerque Rapid Transit study was estimated using a travel modeling software called STOPS (Simplified Trips-on-Project Software). The STOPS model is a stand-alone ridership forecasting software package developed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). The software applies a set of travel models to predict detailed travel patterns on fixed guideway systems. STOPS was specifically developed to support New Starts and Small Starts projects. STOPS utilizes a modified four-step (trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and trip assignment) model structure to quantify total transit ridership by trip type, mode of access and auto ownership. It also computes the change in automobile vehicle miles travelled (VMT) that is attributable to the proposed transit project. The component sub-models in STOPS have been calibrated with local adjustments and compared to rider-survey datasets from locations within six metropolitan areas (with a total of 10 lines), and validated against stop-specific counts of trips in nine other metropolitan areas (with a total of 14 lines), resulting in 24 total fixed-guideway systems. Page 5

6 STOPS Overview The current STOPS version available on the Federal Transit Administration website is STOPS 1.02; however, a pre-release version of STOPS 1.5 was available from FTA on March 18, 2015 and this version used for estimating ridership for this study. 2.1 STOPS Inputs Following the installation of STOPS, several inputs are required to successfully complete a model run. This section will provide detailed information on the following inputs: Station File Census Data MPO/COG Data Transit Agency Data Additional Inputs Station File The station file contains several fields needed for STOPS such as station names, daily boardings (only for calibration purposes), station types (park-and-ride, or no park-and-ride; grade or grade-separated), and stop ID s. This information is used to link to the GTFS (General Transit Feed Specification) data supplied by the transit agency Census Data STOPS requires year 2000 Journey to Work (JTW) trip flow data which were downloaded from the FTA s website by state. Year 2010 JTW trips flows are not currently available; therefore, 2000 JTW trip flows were used MPO/COG Data Demographic data and peak highway travel times from the local Metropolitan Planning Organization or Council of Governments are needed as inputs to STOPS. Total population, total employment, and AM peak highway skims for the Existing, No Build, and Build scenarios were acquired from Mid-Region Council of Governments for years: 2015, 2018, and The ridership analysis was conducted for year 2015 only. However, model inputs are available to conduct 2018 and 2035 forecasts at a later date, if needed Transit Agency Data General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) is a standardized format for public transportation schedules used by transit agencies throughout the world. GTFS is a collection of text files that together provide data necessary for trip planners, schedules, and mobile phone applications. STOPS utilizes GTFS for estimating ridership in the Existing, No Build, and Build scenarios. ABQ RIDE provided these files to be used as inputs into STOPS. ABQ RIDE utilized Trapeze scheduling software to create the GTFS files Additional Inputs There are several inputs that are optional in STOPS. These include the following: Weekday Unlinked Transit Trips Page 6

7 STOPS Service Scenarios Weekday Home-Based Work (HBW) Linked Transit Trips Ratio of Home-Based Other (HBO) to HBW trips by Auto Occupancy Ratio of Non-Home-Based NHB to HBW trips by Auto Occupancy 3 STOPS Service Scenarios There are three service scenarios required by STOPS: Existing Transit, No Build, and Build. This section will explain each of the scenarios and inputs used for this project. 3.1 Existing Transit Scenario The existing transit scenario is a critical element of the ridership estimation process because it builds the foundation for all future model runs Transit System Used The transit system used for the existing scenario used the ABQ RIDE transit system that was in place in October As such, the total unlinked trips used in calibration of the model is from the same month, which is 44, District Definition Sixteen districts were defined for this project. Project stations are located in the following four districts: W, C, UNIV, and E1. Additional Non-Project stations are also located in three additional districts: E1, E2, and NC. The districts defined in the existing scenario will be the same districts used for the no build and build scenarios. Figure 4 identifies the districts developed for use in STOPS. Page 7

8 STOPS Service Scenarios Figure 4: Districts Used in STOPS Station-Level Calibration In the existing scenario, STOPS has the ability to calibrate to existing transit routes provided that the data is available by stop. Stop level boarding data for three routes (Route 66, Route 766, and Route 777) were provided by ABQ RIDE. The purpose of using boarding data for these three routes for calibration was to address low ridership in the corridor (lower than current, actual ridership) that STOPS estimated during earlier calibrations. The boarding data was prepared and populated in the STOPS Station file for calibration. In addition to providing daily boardings at the stop level, stops were also grouped based on similar characteristics. The groupings defined in Figure 5 were used for calibration and for grouping the project stations in the build scenario. Page 8

9 STOPS Service Scenarios Figure 5: Stop Groupings for Calibration Calibration Results Table 1 provides calibration results for the existing scenario by stop group. All boardings have less than a 10 percent difference compared to the observed boardings, and all but two groups are less than 1 percent. Overall, there is a difference of less than 1 percent in the total boardings. Table 1: Calibration Results by Group Group No. Group Name Estimated Observed Difference Pct. Difference 1 UPTOWN % 2 FECENT 2,699 2, % 3 ECENT 4,150 4, % 4 UNMNOB 3,480 3, % 5 DTOWN 3,341 3, % 6 WCENT % 7 FWCENT 1,913 1, % Total 17,043 16, % Page 9

10 STOPS Service Scenarios Table 2 provides the calibration results at the route level. Based on the results, the Route 66 is still being underestimated by the STOPS model and the routes 766 and 777 are being overestimated. Even though there is a significant difference in these routes when comparing what is estimated to what is observed, the overall ridership in the corridor has a difference of less than 1 percent. Table 2: Calibration Results at the Route Level in the Central Avenue Corridor Route Route Name Estimated Observed Difference Pct. Difference 66 Central Avenue 6,549 8,451-1, % 766 Red Line 5,855 4, % 777 Green Line 4,643 3,621 1, % Total 17,047 16, % 3.2 No-Build Scenario The No-Build scenario had the same operating assumptions as the existing scenario. 3.3 Build Scenario In the Build scenario, Route 766 (Red Line) would maintain its current routing and operate in the dedicated guide-way on Central Avenue, west of Louisiana Boulevard to the Central & Unser Transit Center. The Route 777 (Green Line), renumbered to Route 788, would also operate in the dedicated guide-way west of Louisiana and would extend west from the Alvarado Transportation Center to the Central & Unser Transit Center. Figure 6 shows the routings of route 766 and 777/788 for the No Build and Build scenarios. Page 10

11 STOPS Service Scenarios Figure 6: No Build / Build Route Alignments Table 3 shows the travel times for the Central Avenue ART Route 788. Total travel time from Tramway to the Central & Unser Transit Center is 47 minutes. Page 11

12 STOPS Service Scenarios Table 3: Central Avenue ART Route 788 Travel Time (in Minutes) Eastbound Travel Time Westbound Travel Time From To Travel Time Travel Time From To (min) (min) CUTC Bay B Coors ART EB 0:03:11 Central ART Juan Tabo ART WB 0:04:29 Coors ART EB Old Coors ART EB 0:02:04 Juan Tabo ART WB Eubank ART WB 0:02:01 Old Coors ART EB Atrisco ART EB 0:02:19 Eubank ART WB Wyoming ART WB 0:03:08 Atrisco ART EB BioPark ART EB 0:01:59 Wyoming ART WB Louisiana2 WB ART 0:03:22 BioPark ART EB Old Town ART EB 0:01:44 Louisiana2 WB ART San Mateo ART WB 0:02:34 Old Town ART EB 16th EB ART 0:01:21 San Mateo ART WB Washington ART WB 0:01:45 16th EB ART 6th EB ART 0:03:08 Washington ART WB Solano WB ART 0:01:17 6th EB ART Central (in front of A.T.C.) 0:02:14 Solano WB ART Bryn Mawr WB 0:01:42 Central (in front of A.T.C.) Walter ART EB 0:01:42 Bryn Mawr WB Cornell ART WB 0:02:10 Walter ART EB Cedar ART EB 0:01:36 Cornell ART WB University ART WB 0:01:28 Cedar ART EB University ART EB 0:01:31 University ART WB Cedar ART WB 0:01:37 University ART EB Cornell ART EB 0:01:32 Cedar ART WB Walter ART WB 0:01:47 Cornell ART EB Bryn Mawr ART EB 0:02:23 Walter ART WB Central (across from A.T.C.) 0:01:40 Bryn Mawr ART EB Solano EB ART 0:01:27 Central (across from A.T.C.) 2nd 0:00:59 Solano EB ART Washington ART EB 0:01:09 2nd 6th 0:01:19 Washington ART EB San Mateo ART EB 0:02:08 6th 16th WB ART 0:02:31 San Mateo ART EB Louisiana2 EB ART 0:02:32 16th WB ART Old Town WB ART 0:01:21 Louisiana2 EB ART Wyoming ART EB 0:02:55 Old Town WB ART BioPark ART WB 0:02:05 Wyoming ART EB Eubank ART EB 0:03:31 BioPark ART WB Atrisco ART WB 0:01:51 Eubank ART EB Juan Tabo ART EB 0:02:30 Atrisco ART WB Old Coors ART WB 0:02:17 Juan Tabo ART EB Central ART 0:03:04 Old Coors ART WB Coors ART WB 0:01:28 Coors ART WB CUTC Bay B 0:04:09 Total Eastbound Travel Time 0:46:00 Total Westbound Travel Time (minutes) 0:47:00 Figure 7 shows the Project and Non-Project stations and the associated station groupings. The Project stations are defined as stations located on Central Avenue, west of Louisiana Boulevard, while Non- Project stations are located east of Louisiana Boulevard. The stations were grouped based on the groupings defined in calibration. Page 12

13 STOPS Results Figure 7: Project/Non-Project Station Locations and Groupings 4 STOPS Results From the output results of the STOPS model, a variety of data was summarized. This includes a summary of linked/unlinked trips, the change in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), system-wide ridership by mode, daily rail ridership, trips on project by trip purpose, and daily station boardings and alightings on the ART service. The model run was conducted using the analysis year, Table 4 shows total trips-on-project in the Central Avenue Corridor is estimated to be about 15,750 a day. Forty-five percent of project trips would be home-based other trips, followed by home-based work trips at forty-one percent. Non-home based trips account for nearly 14 percent of project trips. Page 13

14 STOPS Results Table 4: Trips-on-Project by Trip Purpose Purpose Year 2015 Trips Percent Home-Based Work 6, % Home-Based Other 7, % Non-Home Based 2, % Total 15, % Table 5 shows the daily ridership for routes 766 and 788 by station. Central/Louisiana and Central/San Mateo have the highest station boardings, followed by the Central Unser Transit Center (CUTC Bay B). Figure 8 graphically shows the daily boardings by station. About 4,700 (30%) of the daily ridership would be coming from the area s transit dependent population. Table 5: Daily Ridership by Station Station Total Percent Central Avenue (Mixed Flow) CUTC Bay B 1, % Coors % Central Avenue (Dedicated Lanes) Old Coors % Atrisco % BioPark % Old Town % 16th % 6th % 6th % 2nd % Central % Walter % Cedar % University % Cornell 1, % Bryn Mawr % Solano % Washington % San Mateo 1, % Louisiana2 2, % Page 14

15 STOPS Results Station Total Percent Central Avenue Portion (Mixed Flow) Wyoming % Eubank % Juan Tabo % Central % Uptown Portion (Mixed Flow) Lomas % Indian Upto % U.T.C. Rapid Ride Bay % TOTAL 15, % Figure 8: Daily Ridership by Station Total Daily Ridership 2,500 2,000 1,500 Mixed Flow 1, CUTC Bay B Coors Old Coors Atrisco BioPark Old Town 16th 6th 6th 2nd Central Walter Cedar University Cornell Bryn Mawr Solano Washington San Mateo Louisiana2 Wyoming Eubank Juan Tabo Central Lomas Indian Upto U.T.C. Rapid Ride Bay As shown in Table 6, the addition of the proposed ART service has an impact on ridership for other transit services. For example, in the Build scenario, the ART ridership is expected to increase by about 5,120 trips, while the commuter/local bus services lose 2,300 riders, indicating a significant number of trip diversions from the bus mode to ART. Page 15

16 STOPS Results Table 6: Transit Boardings by Mode Mode Year 2015 No Build Build Change 766/777/788 (ART) 10,530 15,750 5,220 Express/Local Bus 42,920 40,640-2,280 System-wide 53,450 56,390 2,940 Table 7 presents a summary of the analysis year ridership statistics for the Central Avenue ART. At the systems level, the Build scenario is projected to produce an additional 2,850 daily unlinked trips when compared to the No-Build scenario. In terms of linked trips, this scenario would generate about 1,900 more transit trips than the No-Build scenario. These new trips would divert from the automobile mode. As a result, there would be a reduction in highway vehicle miles of travel (VMT). The estimated VMT reduction is about 5,880 vehicle miles a day. Table 7: Unlinked/Linked Trips and Change in VMT Year 2015 No Build Build Change Unlinked/Linked Trips Modeled Unlinked Transit Trips 53,447 56,293 2,846 Modeled Linked Transit Trips 39,856 41,770 1,914 Vehicle Miles Traveled Change in VMT (No Build/Build) -5,882 The STOPS model produces district to district transit trips as a standard output. Analyzing the distribution of these district to district trips can help understand where the region s transit trips are produced and attracted and that information can be used to judge the reasonableness of the results. Table 8 and Figure 9 show the district to district trips for all transit trips. Within the project districts (W, C, UNIV, and E1), approximately 45 percent of transit trips are produced in project districts and 62 percent of transit trips are attracted to the same project districts. Based on the local knowledge of the demographic and land use distribution, these percentages appear reasonable. Page 16

17 STOPS Results Table 8: District to District Trips (Total Transit Trips) Idist SW S SC SE E3 W C UNIV E1 E2 NC NW1 N NE NW2 NE2 Other Total SW , ,117 S SC SE E W , ,889 C , ,294 UNIV , ,743 1, ,183 E , ,233 E ,912 NC , , ,543 N , ,492 NW , ,647 NE , ,916 NW NE Other Total , ,390 8,461 5,214 1,207 5, ,103 2, , % 79.2% 45.5% 63.8% Trips Generated in Districts located within Project Stations Trips Generated in Districts located outside the Project Stations Figure 9: District to District Trips (Total Transit Trips) Table 9 and Figure 10 show the district to district project trips. Within the project districts (W, C, UNIV, and E1), approximately 60 percent of project trips are produced in project districts and more than 80 percent of project trips are attracted to the four project districts. Page 17

18 STOPS Results Table 9: District to District Trips (Trips-on-Project) Idist SW S SC SE E3 W C UNIV E1 E2 NC NW1 N NE NW2 NE2 Other Total SW S SC SE E W ,986 C ,854 UNIV , ,833 E ,412 E ,431 NC NW ,518 N NE NW NE Other Total ,508 4,430 2, , , % 90.3% 59.6% 75.1% Trips Generated in Districts located within Project Stations Trips Generated in Districts located outside the Project Stations Figure 10: District to District Trips (Trips-on-Project) Page 18

19 STOPS Results Figure 11 and Figure 12 shows the trips-on-project by TAZ at the production end and attraction end, respectively. As seen, a major portion of the trips produced by the project have origins within the study corridor though there is a fair amount of productions distributed all over the region outside of the study corridor. This is primarily due to more than two dozen north-south bus routes providing excellent intermodal transfer opportunities to the proposed ART. On the attraction end, most project trips are destined to downtown, University, Uptown, Airport and several other land uses along the Central Avenue. Figure 11: Trips-on-Project at the Production End Page 19

20 STOPS Results Figure 12: Trips-on-Project at the Attraction End 4.1 University Based Trips The STOPS model is not set up to estimate trips generated by special travel markets such as university based trips. The only University based trips that are likely included in STOPS are the work trips (faculty service personnel, security etc.,) captured in the CTPP data. The University based trips are normally included in the Home Based Other (HBO) trip category. STOPS estimates this category of trips by applying certain factors to the Home Based Work trips. These factors are derived using observed data from several transit systems across the country, and they are not specific to Albuquerque. For this reason, we suspected STOPS is most likely underestimating the trips destined to the University of New Mexico (UNM). In order to verify this, we compared the system-wide linked transit trips in the Home- Based Other trip category estimated by STOPS to the same category of trips in the 2012 Origin- Destination transit survey that was conducted by MRCOG in This comparison was made at the district level. As shown in Table 10, the total number of HBO trips attracted to the University district, according to STOPS, is about 31 percent lower than the observed trips extracted from the expanded 2012 OD survey. In order to correct for this underestimation, we factored the BRT station boardings in the University district by 31 percent. The factoring was applied to three stations and Mawr), which provide access to the UNM campus. When this correction was applied, the total ridership on the ART project increased to 16,500 boardings per day. Page 20

21 Conclusions/Summary Table 10: Daily Ridership by Station Model and Survey Trips Daily Trips Total number of HBO linked transit trips attracted to University district from 2012 OD survey 4,900 Total number of HBO linked transit trips attracted to University district from STOPS in ,730 Percent underestimation 31 % Raw boardings at three University Stops 2,306 Adjusted boardings at three University Stops 3,020 ART ridership (before adjustment) 15,750 ART ridership ( after University trips adjustment) 16,500 5 Conclusions/Summary Transit ridership for the proposed Albuquerque Rapid Transit (ART) project was estimated using FTA s modeling software known as STOPS. The model was calibrated to year 2014 observed ridership counts and was applied to estimate year 2015 ridership on the ART service. The model results indicate the ART project has the potential to draw close to 16,500 riders a day. About five stations are projected to carry about a thousand or more boardings per day. They include Central/Louisiana, Central/San Mateo, Central/Cornell, Central/Walter and Central & Unser Transit Center. Model results indicate about 41 percent of the ridership would be work related trips, 45 percent home-based other trips and 14 percent would be non-home based trips. The proposed ART project would generate about 2,850 new unlinked transit trips (1,900 new linked transit trips). These trips would be diverted from the auto mode, and this diversion would contribute to a VMT (Vehicle Miles of Travel) reduction of about 5,880 vehicle miles. Overall, the proposed project is expected to increase the system wide ridership and contribute to some traffic relief especially in the peak periods. Page 21