Distributed Energy Resources: How Do Utilities Accommodate Customer Owned Generation?

Transcription

1 October 30, 2017 Distributed Energy Resources: How Do Utilities Accommodate Customer Owned Generation? Colorado Rural Electric Association Energy Innovations Summit Denver, CO

2 While DERs Impact Several Utility Functions, Managing DER Impacts Requires a Holistic Approach System Planning Rate Design Financial Planning Load (and shape) forecasts Resource selection and procurement Price signals to manage customer demand Improved customer segmentation Impact of customer attrition Proactively manage financial risks Managing these impact requires close coordination across several utility functions including resource planning, distribution system planning, financial and rates, billing (advanced metering infrastructure(ami)), and customer services 2

3 Why Are Load Shape Forecasts Important? Load shapes in today s power system are changing as a function of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) such as solar (PV) and electric vehicles (EV) Traditional resource planning methods are ill- equipped to estimate a utility s load shape and resultant impacts More accurate load shape forecasts that incorporate rate design and DER penetration analysis can likely improve estimates of production costs and overall resource planning methods DERs are changing the timing, level, and ramping requirements of peak demand differently in various customer classes, influencing a utility s coincident peak and leading to a change in the amount and type of capacity resources required DSG can lower daytime load and push the peak to later times in the day EV can increase Peak demand, although this is highly dependent on penetration rates and usage patterns Note: Graphics are outputs of NewGen s Proprietary Load Shape Analysis Model (LSAM ) 3

4 Load Shape Changes Depend on PV Adoption, Which is a Function of Rate Design PV penetration is a function of PV customer economics: PV installed costs vs. economic value of PV generation to the customer Economic value of PV to the customer is a function of retail rate design Forecasts of PV penetration rates must account for: Evolution of rate design over time to improve fixed cost recovery Changes in installed PV system costs and customer financing Local solar resource characteristics Technical potential of solar generation in a given territory (e.g., building stock, HOA restrictions, rent vs. own, etc.) Illustrative Even if Redding isn t seeing significant expansion of rooftop PV or EVs, recent guidance from the CEC regarding IRP submission requirements may necessitate an analysis of DERs and load shapes. 4

5 Why Does This Matter for Load Forecasting and Resource Planning? Traditional Vs. Alternative Resource Planning Structure Standard approaches to resource planning contain a load shape blind spot Load Forecast Load Forecasts (Net of DERs) Resource selection process may not adequately identify the type and amount of capacity resources Quantify Resource Need Forecast Load Shape Usually only considers generation resources and not demand side management or other measures to manage load Modeling Scenarios and Analysis ID Candidate Resources Modeling Scenario Development Determine Resources to Accommodate Shape Rate Design and Scenario Analysis to Change Shape Iteration Resource scenarios are not usually informed by measures that utilities can take to influence peak demand, such as rate design Production Cost Modeling Scenario Development Production Cost Modeling Hourly modeling can mask sub-hourly ramping requirements Least Cost Resource Portfolio Least Cost Resource Portfolio 5

6 Load Shape Impacts Can Be Complicated by EVs DER impacts on load shapes is not only a function of PV but also EVs Important to assess impacts of PV and EVs both separately and combined Variables that impact EV load profiles are: Type of charger Type of vehicle How the vehicle is used Assuming standard evening charging profile, customer, and likely system peak demand will increase EV load diversity will vary significantly at certain levels of technology penetration PV plus EV exacerbates the duck curve and evening ramping requirements Residential EV Charging Profile Residential PV+EV Charging Profile 6

7 Load Shapes Can Be Managed By Technology Energy storage can help manage load shapes If storage absorbs PV exports (assuming minimal sizing differential), then load shapes flatten and reduce peak demand While Peak demand is reduced, ramping requirements may still be significant depending on load diversity Residential PV+EV+Storage Note: this is not looking at economics of a combined PV + storage system only what can happen to load shapes if these are installed 7

8 Rates as a Resource : Load Shapes Can Also Be Managed by Rates Rate design can send price signals to influence load shapes (consumption behavior or DERs) that benefit the system Design rates Based on system cost characteristics Send the right pricing signals to customers While maintaining the viability of customer choice 8

9 CONTACT INFORMATION Fred Wellington Vice President Office: (415)