India Solar Market Update Q Executive Summary.

Transcription

1 India Solar Market Update Q Executive Summary

2 India Solar Demand Forecast India Solar Demand Forecast (MW) 12,000 Annual Rooftop Solar Installations (MW) 80,000 Solar installations rose 123 percent to a total of 9.6 GW in calendar year (CY) 2017, compared to 4.3 GW of installations in CY ,000 Annual Utility-scale Solar Installations (MW) Cumulative Solar Installations (MW) 70,000 Cumulative solar installations in India totaled 19.6 GW as of December Annual Installations (MW) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cumulative Installations (MW) Total solar installations in Q totaled 2,492 MW, reflecting a 260 MW increase from Q when 2,232 MW were installed. The pipeline of under-construction utility-scale projects currently stands at about 10.6 GW, with another 4.3 GW of tenders pending auction. During the fourth quarter of 2017, 3.3 GW of solar was tendered and 1 GW was auctioned. The lowest bid in Q was 2.47 (~$0.038)/kWh quoted by Hero Future Energies for a 300 MW project in the 500 MW Bhadla Solar Park Phase III auction. Cumulative solar rooftop installations in India totaled ~1,605 MW at the end of 2017.

3 All India Cumulative Utility-Scale Solar Installations by Policy Type India Utility-scale Cumulative Solar Installations by State (MW) Telangana Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Punjab Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand Chhattisgarh Bihar Odisha Kerala Haryana West Bengal New Delhi Jharkhand Daman and Diu Chandigarh Andaman & Nicobar Tripura Dadra and Nagar Haveli Goa Jammu & Kashmir Lakshadweep Arunachal Pradesh Puducherry Cumulative installed largescale solar capacity now stands at ~17.9 GW ,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,700 3,000 3,300 <20 MW MW 100-1,000 MW 1,000-2,500 MW >2,500 MW Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017)

4 Quarterly Solar Installations in 2017 Solar Installations in 2017 by Quarter (MW) 3,500 2,957 3, ,500 1,948 2, ,500 2,712 1,000 1,723 2, ,967 Rooftop Solar Utility-Scale 2, ,232 Total solar installations in Q totaled 2,492 MW, up 260 MWs compared to the third quarter, when 2,232 MW were installed. In 2017, over 9.6 GW of solar were added. Utility-scale solar installations quarter-over-quarter were up by almost 13 percent. Installed rooftop solar in the fourth quarter was slightly down by approximately two percent compared to the third quarter of The first quarter of 2017 was the strongest in terms of total installed capacity, largely due to several projects that were commissioned in 2016 but were connected in Q Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017) Get our project tracker for a full list of large-scale projects announced and commissioned

5 Share of New Power Capacity Additions in India Share of New Power Capacity Additions in India ( ) Solar and Wind account for almost 65% of New Power Capacity Additions in 2017 Share of New Capcity Additions % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Other Renewables Small Hydro Solar Power Wind Power Hydro Nuclear With over 9.6 GW installed in 2017, solar was the fastestgrowing energy generation source in India in 2017 and accounted for over 45 percent of all new power generation capacity installed. Renewables comprised almost 19 percent of India's total installed capacity, with solar accounting for about 6 percent. Among renewables, solar accounts for about 30 percent of total installed capacity. 10% 0% Gas Coal For the first time, renewables overtook coal for new capacity installed in a year Data from CEA, MNRE, Mercom India Solar Project Tracker MNRE's revised cumulative Bio-Power figures not included Source: Mercom India Research

6 India: Solar Electricity Generation India: Solar Electricity Generation (MU) Solar Electricity Generation (in Million Units) 2, , ,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Solar accounted for generation of more than 21.5 billion units (BU) of electricity, up more than 86 percent increase from the 11.6 BU generated in 2016 In the fourth quarter of 2017, solar power accounted for over 6.5 BU of electricity produced in India. This marks an increase of over 1.2 BU compared to the third quarter of 2017 Total share of power generated by solar energy in 2017 was 1.67 percent. Coal power generation still accounts for 79 percent of total power generation. Data from CEA Source: Mercom India Research

7 Policy Updates India: Utility-Scale Solar Projects by Status (MW) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Policy Updates: MNRE Announces Quality Control Measures to Address Low-Quality Solar Equipment MNRE announced a quality control measure that requires manufacturers to register with the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) for the use of a Standard Mark to comply with the Indian quality standard. MNRE Issues Tender Trajectory for Solar MNRE has issued a tender trajectory for solar in India that provides market visibility to stakeholders. MNRE said it plans to work alongside states to announce the tenders needed to reach 20 GW of ground-mounted capacity in solar parks during the fiscal year. MNRE Announces Subsidies to Bolster India Solar Manufacturing Growth MNRE released a concept note for a proposal to build out India s manufacturing supply chain, including polysilicon, wafers/ingots, cells, and modules. 0 In-Operation Under Development Tendered; Pending Auction Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017) $3.7 Billion in Financial Assistance to be Provided to DISCOMs to Boost Rooftop Solar in India MNRE has released a new proposal to overhaul the existing rooftop solar implementation mechanism by making it the responsibility of DISCOMs. Under the proposal, DISCOMs would be eligible to receive financial assistance to the tune of billion (~$3.6 billion) based on their performance in facilitating rooftop solar deployment.

8 Solar Tender and Auction Activity India Solar Tenders and Auctions in 2017 (MW) 3,000 Tenders In 2017, approximately 9.5 GW of solar projects were tendered and 6 GW was auctioned by various government agencies. Auctions 0 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 *It's worth noting that approximately 2.6 GW of tenders that were announced in 2017, were later cancelled Source: Mercom India Tender Tracker

9 Average Solar Module Price Trends in India Chinese and Indian Module ASPs Q Chinese solar module ASPs increased by four percent in Q4 compared to the third quarter of During the same period in 2016, Chinese module ASPs actually dropped by 10 percent Price quotes for Chinese modules in India ranged from $0.34 (~ 21.9)/W to $0.42 (~ 27.1)/W based on order size and other parameters. Chinese module ASP s have gone up by about 19 percent from Q levels Indian Module ASP ($/W) Chinese Modules ($/W) Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017) However, many Chinese suppliers have been reluctant to ship to India with the uncertainty surrounding the safeguard duty. The uncertainty surrounding the safeguard duty, the antidumping duty, and the port duty has made module price forecasts in India very unpredictable.

10 Bidding Trends in Reverse Auctions Lowest Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India ( /kwh) Low Tariff ( /kwh) Q Low Tariff/Bids ( /kwh) NSM PI B1 (Mah) NSM PI B2 (Raj) Odisha B1 Karnataka PI MP PI Odisha B2 Chhattisgarh Karnataka PII MP PII Punjab PI (C1) Punjab PI (C2) Rajasthan UP B1 AP PII Bihar Karnataka PIII Telangana PI Uttarkhand UP B2 Karnataka PIV-Nov 14 MP PIII-Jul 15 Punjab PII (C1)-Feb 15 Punjab PII (C2)-Feb 15 Punjab PII (C3)-Feb 15 Telangana PII G1-Aug 15 Telangana PII G2-Aug 15 UP B3-Sep 15 Punjab PIII-Sep 15 Uttarkhand (Type-I)-Nov 15 NSM PII B2 (AP)-Nov 15 NSM PII B2 (AP)-Dec 15 NSM PII B2 (Raj)-Jan 16 NSM PII B2 (UP)-Jan 16 Haryana-Jan 16 NSM PII B2 (Kar)-Apr 16 NSM PII B2 (Telangana)-May 16 Jharkhand-May 16 Karnataka P-V (Gen)-May 16 NSM PII B2 (Raj)-Jul 16 Rewa Solar Project (MP) - Feb 17 NSM PII B2, Kadapa (AP) - Apr 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P4 (Raj) - May 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P3 (Raj) - May 17 GUVNL (Guj) - Sep 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P3, T XI (Raj) - Dec 17 NSM PII B4, Bhadla P4, T XII (Raj) - Dec Note: AP Phase II - The range of first-year tariff offered by the successful bidders was Rs /kWh with a 3% per annum escalation for the first 10 years, then flat thereafter. MP: Rewa Ultra Mega Solar project - low bid of Rs.2.97/kWh tariff escalating at Rs.0.05/kWh for 15 years. Levelized tariff comes to Rs. 3.30/kWh. Source: Mercom India Research (Dec 2017)

11 State Policies Uttar Pradesh Jharkhand Updates: Uttar Pradesh approved the state s Draft Solar Policy 2017 and gave it a retroactive effective date of November 6, The policy will remain in place for five years or until a new policy is created. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has set a target of 10,700 MW for solar power, including 4,300 MW from rooftop solar projects, by FY Updates: The Jharkhand Renewable Energy Development Agency (JREDA) issued a tender for the electrification of 47 villages under a decentralized distributed generation program under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY). The electrification will be carried out by setting up micro solar grids. Madhya Pradesh Updates: Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (MPERC) has kept the must-run status intact for power generation from wind, solar, small hydro, and municipal solid. The renewable energy sources will not be subject to merit order dispatch principles. Haryana Updates: Haryana also plans to install solar hybrid systems in all government schools of the state in a phased manner in the coming three years. In the first phase of the project, the hybrid solar projects will be installed in 3,222 senior secondary and high schools at a cost of 2.36 billion (~$36.82 million). Thirty percent of the project cost will be provided by the Central Government on a reimbursement basis. Complete state by state updates are covered in our full report

12 Funding and Mergers & Acquisition Corporate Funding in 2017 VC/PE Funding in % 50.3% 49.7% 71.7% Rest of the World India Rest of the World India Source: Mercom Capital Group Source: Mercom Capital Group In 2017, the Indian solar sector logged over $5 billion (~ 347 billion) in funding and M&A deals. Project financings in 2017 came to about $6.4 billion (~ 416 billion) on the back of 9.6 GW in solar installations compared to $3.5 billion (~ billion) of 4 GW in Deal details are available in the full report.

13 Top 10 Solar States in India 17.9 GW 2.2 GW Cumulative Solar Capacity Solar Installations Q State Ranking Based on Total Installed Utility-Scale Solar as of Dec 2017 The top four states which, now have over 2 GW of installed solar capacity, represent approximately 58 percent of the total installed capacity in the country 1 Telangana 12 Total Installations - 3,154 MW 6 Gujarat Total Installations - 1,381 MW Karnataka 3 Total Installations - 2,744 MW 7 Madhya Pradeh Total Installations - 1,295 MW Data from Mercom's India Solar Project Tracker Andhra Pradesh 4 Total Installations - 2,279 MW 8 Punjab Total Installations MW 9 Rajasthan 5 Tamil Nadu Total Installations - 2,261 MW Total Installations - 1,720 MW Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Total Installations MW Total Installations MW

14 India Solar Market Update Q4 & Annual Report 2017 Mercom India s India Solar Market Update provides you with the most comprehensive report on the Indian solar sector. The report, delivers high-quality research and analysis, facts and figures, and forecasts for global solar professionals. Primary data for the report is directly collected from government agencies, developers, investors, manufacturers, installers and other industry stakeholders. The report offers details on prevailing market conditions, issues and challenges, opportunities, and the outlook for India s solar industry. Click here for more information or to purchase a copy of India Solar Market Update 2017 Q4 & Annual Report The report includes: Quarterly and YTD Installations Forecasts Updates on Tenders and Auctions Policy Updates and Analysis State-by-State Installations and Module Prices Tariffs Project Costs Imports/Export Activity Solar Power Generation Quarterly Survey of Solar Supply Chain Other Important Updates Who Needs to Purchase this Report? Project Developers Component Manufacturers Utility/IPPs EPC Provider BOS Suppliers Investment Firms/Funds Investors, Banks and Financial Institutions Installers Foreign Entrants

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