2Q and 1H 2017 IFRS Financial Results August 30, 2017

Transcription

1 Always moving forward 2Q and 1H 2017 IFRS Financial Results August 30, 2017

2 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation are not historical facts and are forward-looking. Examples of such forwardlooking statements include, but are not limited to: projections or expectations of revenues, income (or loss), earnings (or loss) per share, dividends, capital structure or other financial items or ratios; statements of our plans, objectives or goals, including those related to products or services; statements of future economic performance; and statements of assumptions underlying such statements. Words such as believes, anticipates, expects, estimates, intends and plans and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. You should be aware that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. When relying on forward-looking statements, you should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events, especially in light of the political, economic, social and legal environment in which we operate. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We do not make any representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forwardlooking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one of many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario. 1

3 Macroeconomic and tax environment Upstream Oil price, exchange rate and net price $/bbl долл./барр. Курс, FX rate, руб./долл. RUB/$ Oil export duty time lag effect $/bbl 2.5 Urals, Юралс, $/bbl долл./барр. тыс. руб./барр. KRUB/bbl 6 1 1q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q17 кв q17 кв. 17 Net Нетто-цена, price, KRUB/bbl тыс. руб./барр. (r.sc.) Price and exchange rate 2q17 1q17 % 1H17 1H16 % (7.5) Brent, $/bbl (6.8) Urals, $/bbl (2.9) Exchange rate, RUB/$ (17.5) Net price (7.1) $/bbl (9.9) KRUB/bbl (8.8) Taxes 2q17 1q17 % 1H17 1H16 % $/bbl (2.4) Export duty (9.1) MET KRUB/t кв кв кв кв кв кв. 17 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 2q (5.3) Export duty (11.7) MET Source: Argus, Platts, Company estimates Net price = Urals less export duty and MET 2

4 Macroeconomic and tax environment Downstream Gross benchmark refining margin in Russia, $/bbl 11q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q17 кв q17 кв. 17 Gross benchmark refining margin in Europe, $/bbl 2q17 1q17 % 1H17 1H16 % Oil products, KRUB/t (6.8) Fuel oil Diesel fuel Premium gasoline Taxes, KRUB/t (5.2) Export duty, diesel fuel (13.5) (5.3) Export duty, fuel oil Excise, gasoline Euro Excise, diesel fuel Gross benchmark refining margin (European part of Russia) $/bbl RUB/bbl q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q17 кв q17 кв. 17 NWE MED 2q17 1q17 % 1H17 1H16 % Oil products (FOB Rotterdam), $/t (4.1) Fuel oil 3.5% (6.0) Diesel fuel 0.01% (3.2) Gasoline Gross benchmark refining margin, $/bbl NWE MED Source: Platts, Argus, Company estimates 3

5 Key events Upstream Launched main production facilities at Gissar, Uzbekistan Progressed on schedule with the construction of facilities second-stage development at the Caspian Sea fields: Finalized installation of ice-resistant platform s topside and assembly of the drilling rig at Filanovky field LSP-2 Completed transportation and installation of well head platform s jackets at Korchagin field Downstream Reached design parameters of the hydrocracker complex at Volgograd refinery Reached light product yield of 71% at Russian refineries in 2q17, up 8 p.p. y-o-y Other Completed the sale of non-core diamonds production business for $1.45 bln 4

6 Key Operational Indicators 2q17 1q17 % 1H17 1H16 % 2,222 2, th. boe per day 2,217 2, Hydrocarbon production (ex. West Qurna-2) mln boe of which crude oil and NGL mln bbl (1.0) crude oil and NGL in Russia mln bbl (1.1) West Qurna-2 mln bbl 6 24 (74.7) Refinery throughput at the own refineries mln bbl p.p. Refining depth % p.p p.p. Light products yield % p.p. 5

7 Key Financial Indicators 2q17 1q17 % RUB bln 1H17 1H16 % 1,359 1,432 (5.1) Revenue 2,791 2, (13.8) EBITDA (11.1) Exploration and production segment (9.9) (14.6) in Russia (6.7) outside Russia, excluding EBITDA of the West Qurna-2 project West Qurna (76.1) (11.4) Refining, marketing and distribution segment in Russia (79.6) outside Russia (7.5) (14.4) EBITDA, ex West Qurna Profit for the period (18.2) ex. FX effect and sale of Arkhangelskgeoldobycha (4.3) Capital expenditures х59 Free cash flow (13.3) (35.7) Free cash flow before changes in working capital (25.1) Net debt (32.6) * Excluding proceeds from the sale of diamonds business in 2q17 in the amount of 81 bln RUB * 6

8 Dividend Policy Execution Dividend yield (2016) Majors LUKOIL Russia peers 6.9% In June 2017, AGM approved total dividend for 2016 in the amount of 195 rubles per share (+10% y-o-y in rubles, +22% y-o-y in $) Scrip / FCF coverage LUKOIL Russia Majors Proven track record High dividend yield LUKOIL has been increasing DPS since 1998 Commitment to increase dividend Coverage of dividends by FCF CAGR for 18 years is 45% No scrip 7

9 Upstream 8

10 Korchagin Filanovsky Yaregskoye Usinskoye Production Hydrocarbon production, mln boe West Qurna-2 Gas abroad Growth factors Launch of Filanovsky and Pyakyakhinskoye fields Development of gas projects in Uzbekistan Decline factors External limitations (OPEC+) Decrease in compensation oil from WQ-2 project Gas in Russia Liquids abroad Liquids in Russia Liquids production in Russia (mln bbl) and net price * ($/bbl) net price: $43 $43 $21 $31 $48 $31 2q16 1H16 1q17 2q17 1H17 1H16 North Caspian West Siberia, excl. Pyakyak hinskoye field Pyakyak hinskoye field Timan- Pechora Volga, Ural and other 1H17 * net price = oil price ($50/bbl) less export duty and MET under 2017 tax environment and 60 RUB per $ 9

11 North Caspian Filanovsky Field Field s 2 nd stage Key advantages High-margin barrels Production growth potential Short transportation leg, low lifting costs, high oil quality 1H 2017 results Launched 2 high flow rate bilateral production wells Installed topsides of LSP-2 Signed wellhead platform construction contract 2017 targets To drill 3 production and 2 injection wells To complete construction works of the 2nd development stage Net price, $/bbl* Liquids production, Kbpd $50/bbl $50/bbl MET 76 42% Export duty Net price 85% 21 `2 60 `3 `4 `5 `5 `5 Standard taxation Filanovsky 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17 2Q 17 Jul 17 August 1-27, 2017 * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. Wells at the end of the period 10

12 Timan-Pechora Yaregskoye field Key advantages High-margin barrels Substantial production growth potential 1H 2017 results Performed pre-commissioning works at Yarega power plant (75 MW) Launched the Phase 3 Lyayel steam generation unit with 100 tons per hour capacity Put into operation 8 SAGD & 83 underground production wells Put into operation 27 injection wells 2017 targets To commission Yarega 75 MW power plant and SGU with 300 tons of steam generation capacity per hour Net price, $/bbl* Oil production, Kbpd $50/bbl MET $50/bbl Export duty 96% 42% Net price Standard taxation * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. Yaregskoye кв. 1Q 17 2 кв. 2Q 17 июл.17 Jul August авг ,

13 West Siberia Pyakyakhinskoye field Key advantages High-margin barrels Substantial production growth potential High well flow rates 1H 2017 results Launched gas production Put into production 21 gas wells Put into production 14 oil wells 2017 targets To commission 24 oil wells and 34 gas wells Net price, $/bbl* Daily production, Kboepd $50/bbl $50/bbl Liquids Marketable gas % MET Export duty Net price 62% Standard taxation * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. Pyakyakhinskoye 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17 2Q 17 Jul 17 August 1-27,

14 West Siberia Key advantages Stable region for reinvestment Lowest cost per meter drilled among the Group companies Proven track record Drilling volumes growth potential supported by vast reserve base 1H 2017 results Increased production drilling by 27% y-o-y Maintained high share of horizontal wells launches 2017 targets To increase production drilling by 10-15% Production drilling (LUKOIL-West Siberia) New production wells * launch, YTD th. m Drilling (l. sc.), th. m y-o-y, % 140% 100% % % 20% Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q % -60% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec * oil, gas, gas condensate production wells, excluding wells from exploration drilling 13

15 Uzbekistan Growth of Gas Production Kandym Key advantages Proven track record in the region Substantial production growth potential International prices (export to China) 1H17 results Increased daily production by 8% y-o-y (LUKOIL share) Put into operation 12 production wells Progressed with Kandym GPP construction: 1 st train: >80% 2 nd train: 50% 2017 targets: To reach design production level at Gissar project Gissar Gas production*, mcm per day Gissar Kandym q17 2q17 July 2017 *LUKOIL share August 1-27,

16 Downstream 15

17 Downstream Efficient Oil Allocation Oil allocation price in Russia, $/bbl Oil allocation volumes in Russia, mln t Sales in Russia Delivery to own refineries in Russia Brent Oil Нетбэк netback нефти for refining при переработке in Russia* на НПЗ в России* Oil Нетбэк export нефти netback** при экспорте в дальнее зарубежье** Exports 0 1 1q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q16 кв q17 кв q17 кв. 17 2q16 1q17 2q17 * Including full sales price of refined products produced at the refineries ** West Siberian oil, standard taxation 16

18 Downstream Russian Refineries Refinery throughput, mln t Refining depth Light products yield Total * % 85% 88% 63% 65% 71% Refinery throughput Higher throughput at Nizhny Novgorod and Volgograd refineries Ukhta % 72% 75% 44% 50% 52% Maintenance of units at Perm refinery Lower throughput at Ukhta refinery to maximize light Volgograd % 93% 93% 58% 67% 72% product yield Refining depth (+3 p.p. q-o-q) and light products yield (+5 p.p. q-o-q) Perm % 95% 98% 71% 64% 72% Optimization of feedstock mix and processes at Nizhny Novgorod and Ukhta refineries Nizhny Novgorod % 73% 78% 62% 62% 64% 2q16 1q17 2q17 2q16 1q17 2q17 2q16 1q17 2q17 Reaching design capacity of hydrocracker at Volgograd refinery Reaching design parameters of the units at Perm refinery after maintenance works in 1q17 * Consolidated indicator excludes cross-supplies and processing of gas products 17

19 Downstream European Refineries Refinery throughput, mln t Refining depth Light products yield Total % 86% 84% 72% 75% 76% 99% 99% 99% 82% 78% 80% Refinery throughput (+4% q-o-q) Ploiești Reaching design parameters after maintenance at Ploiești refinery Zeeland % 78% 78% 70% 71% 71% Refining depth (-2 p.p. q-o-q) and light products yield (+1 p.p. q-o-q) Optimizing feedstock and higher conversion of Burgas % 84% 89% 70% 73% 82% residue hydrocracking at Burgas refinery Maintenance of processing units at ISAB ISAB % 89% 81% 71% 77% 73% 2q16 1q17 2q17 2q16 1q17 2q17 2q16 1q17 2q17 18

20 Downstream High-Priority Channels (1H17 vs. 1H16) Filling stations Motor fuels sales volumes growth +6% Jet Into-plane jet fuel sales volumes growth EKTO fuels sales volumes - Russia +19% - Abroad +9% Non-fuel sales - Russia +7% - Abroad +5% +7% into-plane sales volumes growth Lubricants Branded lubricants sales volumes growth Bunkering Significant sales volumes growth +6% sales volumes growth of premium motor and industrial oils Increase by 41% mainly due to the increase in market share in the Baltic region 19

21 Financial Results 20

22 Revenue RUB bln 1,432 1 (1) 6 25 (2) (37) (10) (48) (7) 1,359 Revenue 1q17 Oil (Russia) Oil (International) Oil products (Russia) Oil products (International) Other Revenue 2q17 Volume factor Price and structure factor 21

23 EBITDA RUB bln 208 (16) 18 (26) 2 (6) EBITDA 1q17 in Russia outside Russia in Russia outside Russia Corporate and other Elimination EBITDA 2q17 Exploration and production Refining, marketing and distribution segment 22

24 Operating Expenses RUB bln Other Petrochemical Power generation and distribution Crude oil transportation to refineries Refining at the Group s refineries Hydrocarbon production at W.Qurna Hydrocarbon production (ex. W.Qurna-2) 2q16 1q17 2q17 Lifting costs in Russia, RUB per boe 2q q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 2q17 LUKOIL- Nizhnevolzhsk neft LUKOIL- Perm LUKOIL- West Siberia LUKOIL- Komi 23

25 SG&A and Transportation Expenses SG&A Transportation expenses RUB bln (0) 2 4 (3) (3) (2) (1) 68 2q16 1q17 Labor costs Other SG&A Share - based remune ration program Provision for doubtful debts 2q17 2q16 1q17 Oil Refined products Other 2q17 24

26 Profit RUB bln 53 (29) (16) (3) 139 Effect of sale of diamonds business 62 1q17 FX Finance income / costs and other EBITDA Income tax DD&A 2q17 25

27 Capital Expenditures RUB bln (0) 1 (0) (7) (0) 0 0 (0) 125 1q17 Caspian (projects in Russia) West Siberia (Yamal) Russia (ex. N.Caspian and Yamal) W.Qurna-2 Uzbekistan Abroad (ex. WQ-2 and Uzbekistan) Russia Abroad Other 2q17 E&P RM&D 26

28 Cash Flows RUB bln Free cash flow before changes in working capital, RUB bln 67 6 (30) (125) Sale of diamond business (62) FCF 1q17 ex. WC Capex OCF ex. WC FCF 2q17 ex. WC (10) Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of 2q17 OCF before working capital Working capital change Assets sales Capex Debt and interest Other financial cash flow Other Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2q17 27

29 Free Cash Flow Before Changes in Working Capital and West Qurna-2 Project RUB bln q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 2q17 28

30 Financial Position Net debt, RUB bln Debt maturity profile, RUB bln 860 Cash and cash equivalents Total debt Net debt Credit lines * Cash Net debt/ EBITDA H As of q17-4q and further Debt structure as of Credit ratings USD / EUR / Other debt 89% 8% 3% S&P BBB- Secured / Unsecured debt Fixed / Variable rate 11% 57% 89% 43% Fitch BBB- Eurobonds (all in $) / Other debt 55% 45% Moody s Ba1 *Stand-by revolving committed credit lines. 29

31 2017 Outlook Upstream Growth in hydrocarbon production by ~1-2% driven by gas ramp-up Increase in the share of high-margin barrels: Filanovsky, Pyakyahinskoe, Yaregskoe, gas production in Uzbekistan and others Growth of drilling volumes in West Siberia to decelerate decline rates: 10-15% growth y-o-y New opportunities: Potential FIDs on new projects in the Caspian Sea and Baltic Sea, new exploration areas Downstream Increasing refinery throughput in Russia by ~4-5% Further improvement in refinery product slate: Increase in light product yield in Russia to ~70%, further optimization of product flows between the refineries New opportunities Potential FID on delayed cocker at Nizhniy Novgorod refinery Growth in priority marketing channels Capex ~ bln RUB depending on the RR/$ exchange rate Upstream - 85%; Downstream - 15% Russia - 70%; International - 30% 30

32 Q&A 31

33 Financial Results RUB bln 1,339 1,309 1,401 1,432 1, % y-o-y Revenue EBITDA % y-o-y Profit excluding FX effect and sale of diamonds business % y-o-y 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 2q17 32

34 Revenue RUB bln 55 2, (3) , (29) Revenue 1H16 Oil (Russia) Oil (International) Oil products (Russia) Oil products (International) Other Revenue 1H17 Volume factor Price and structure factor 33

35 EBITDA RUB bln (15) 21 (3) 2 (12) EBITDA 1H16 in Russia outside Russia in Russia outside Russia Corporate and other Elimination EBITDA 1H17 Exploration and production Refining, marketing and distribution segment 34

36 SG&A and Transportation Expenses SG&A Transportation Expenses RUB bln 93 (5) (3) (9) (0) (3) (20) H16 Labor costs Other SG&A Share-based remuneration program Provision for doubtful debts 1H17 1H16 Oil Refined products Other 1H17 35

37 Profit RUB bln 59 5 (18) 10 (9) Effect of sale of diamonds business 105 1H16 Finance income / costs and other FX EBITDA Income tax DD&A 1H17 36

38 Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (in USD mln, at the average exchange rate for the period) 2q17 1q17 1H17 1H16 Revenue 23,803 24,347 Sales (including excise and export tariffs) 48,117 35,798 Costs and other deductions (1,936) (1,828) Operating expenses (3,760) (3,228) (12,280) (12,629) Cost of purchased crude oil, gas and products (24,892) (17,283) (1,182) (1,254) Transportation expenses (2,435) (2,338) (687) (617) Selling, general and administrative expenses (1,302) (1,325) (1,474) (1,374) Depreciation, depletion and amortization (2,844) (2,218) (2,551) (2,614) Taxes other than income taxes (5,161) (2,877) (2,020) (1,861) Excise and export tariffs (3,875) (3,254) (12) (13) Exploration expenses (25) (65) 1,662 2,158 Profit from operating activities 3,823 3, Finance income (119) (161) Finance costs (280) (305) Equity share in income of affiliates (740) Foreign exchange gain (loss) (271) (1,057) 838 (42) Other income (expenses) 782 (107) 2,991 1,334 Profit before income taxes 4,297 1,926 (564) (217) Current income taxes (775) (393) 3 (51) Deferred income taxes (49) (29) (560) (268) Total income tax expense (823) (423) 2,431 1,066 Profit for the period 3,474 1,503 (3) (6) Profit for the period attributable to non-controlling interests (9) (4) 2,428 1,060 Profit for the period attributable to PJSC LUKOIL shareholders 3,465 1,499 37

39 Always moving forward