Nylon is Resilient What about the Nylon Industry?

Transcription

1 Nylon is Resilient What about the Nylon Industry? 6th China International Polyamide & Intermediates Forum 3-5 Dec 28, Rainbow Hotel, Shanghai, China Speaker : Charles Fryer Company : Tecnon OrbiChem Figure 1 POLYAMIDE FILAMENT WORLD MONTHLY PRODUCTION Thousand Ton Pessimistic view % Growth pa Monthly 6 Month Mean Optimistic view 1.3% Growth pa

2 Figure 2 GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF NYLON FILAMENT OVER LAST 1 YEARS Ktpa 1, 8 28 est Europe inc CIS & Turkey USA China South Korea Taiwan Japan Figure 3 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND Thousand Tons ,5 5, No new plants ,5 Capability Growth 2.7% pa Growth 3.% pa 4, 3,5 Growth 3.4% pa Consumption Growth 2.3% pa 3, 2,

3 Figure 4 EUROPEAN CYCLOHEXANE, BENZENE, AMMONIA and NAPHTHA PRICES 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Cyclohexane Price Benzene Contract Ammonia Price Naphtha Price Figure 5 CHAIN FROM NAPHTHA TO POLYAMIDE 3,2 2,8 2,4 2, 1,6 1,2 8 Polyamide Fibre PA6 75 den Taiwan Asian Caprolactam Import Contract WE 1.3 Cyclohexane +.3 Ammonia WE Naphtha Price

4 Figure 6 ASIAN CAPROLACTAM MARGIN over WEST EUROPEAN 1.3 CYCLOHEXANE +.3 AMMONIA 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Asian Caprolactam Import Contract WE 1.3 Cyclohexane +.3 Ammonia Margin WE Heavy Fuel Oil Spot Figure 7 ASIAN CAPROLACTAM MARGIN over WEST EUROPEAN 1.3 CYCLOHEXANE +.3 AMMONIA 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Asian Caprolactam Import Contract WE 1.3 Cyclohexane +.3 Ammonia Margin WE Heavy Fuel Oil Spot

5 Figure 8 TAIWANESE POLYAMIDE 6 FILAMENT MARGIN over 1.3 ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Taiwanese Nylon 6 Filament 7 den DEL Asian Caprolactam Import Contract CFR Margin 1, Figure 9 TAIWANESE POLYAMIDE 6 FILAMENT PRICE PREMIUM ABOVE POLYESTER FILAMENT 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Taiwanese Nylon 6 Filament 7 den DEL Taiwanese Polyester Filament15 den DTY Price DEL Price Gap 1,

6 Figure 1 EAST ASIAN DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN POLYAMIDE 6 AND POLYESTER RAW MATERIAL COSTS 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Caprolactam Import Contract Polyester Raw Material Cost =.865 xpta +.35 x MEG Differential Forecast Figure 11 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION vs CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION 27 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY SURPLUS Japan 5.8% Japan 5.8% Rest of World 18.8% China 8.% SURPLUS W est Europe 6.% Rest of W orld 19.% CAPROLACTAM CONSUMPTION China Japan 7.6% 6.% China 11.6% Needing imported caprolactam West Europe 23.1% N America 4.4% W est Europe 23.4% SURPLUS N America 16.9% SURPLUS East Europe 4.% East Europe 6.9% Total: 4,5 kt Taiwan 11.4% N America 17.1% Needing imported caprolactam East Europe 4.1% Total: 4,1 kt 6

7 Figure 12 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE Thousand Tons ME & Africa S & SE Asia E Asia/Japan China N America S America W Europe E Europe Figure 13 NYLON INTERMEDIATES PRODUCERS 27 Share of Production Capacity Solutia 16.3% Rhodia 13.2% BASF 16.7% DSM 12.% Honeywell 7.6% CPDC 6.1% Invista 3.% BASF 5.1% Ube Ind 8.8% Sabanci 7.% DuPont 12.7% Others 2.8% Asahi Kasei 4.3% Radici 2.9% China Shenma 5.7% Others 14.8% Sinopec China 4.7% Caproleuna 3.1% CIS 1.9% Capro Corp 5.3% Toray Ind 2.1% Lanxess 3.8% Sumitomo Chem 4.1% AH Salt (PA66) 3,5 kt Caprolactam (PA6) 4,5 kt 7

8 Figure 14 THE PA66 SUPPLY VALUE CHAIN 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Things seemed too good to be true They were! Asian Polyamide PA66 Tyrecord Filament Price China AH Salt Import Price Asian Adipic Acid Asian Benzene WE Naphtha Price Figure 15 ADIPIC ACID CAPACITY 27: ADDITIONS Ktpa 1,2 1, Dushanzi 2 Hongye Invista Rhodia Solutia BASF Radici Liaoyang Asahi Kasei Lanx ess China Shenma Ukraine China New Bohui 8

9 Figure 16 WORLD ADIPIC ACID SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE Thousand Tons 3,5 3, Capacity Consumption 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Figure 17 WORLD ADIPIC ACID REGIONAL NET TRADE 24-21est Thousand Tons N America S America W Europe E Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia E Asia/Japan China est 29est 21est

10 Figure 18 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CONSUMPTION BY END-USE Thousand Tons 3,5 3, 2,5 Growth 3.% Growth 6.% Other Urethanes Plasticisers AH Salt 2, Growth 4.2% 1,5 1, Growth 2.3% Figure 19 MARGIN FOR PA DEN FILAMENT PRODUCTION IN ASIA 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Asian Nylon 66 Tyrecord 126 den Filament China AH Salt Import cfr Margin (Tyrecord 1.17 x AH Salt) 1,

11 Figure 2 US BUTADIENE, AMMONIA and NATURAL GAS PRICES 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Dollars Per mmbtu Butadiene Ammonia Natural Gas (mmbtu) Figure 21 EUROPEAN BUTADIENE, AMMONIA and HEAVY FUEL OIL PRICES 2, 1,8 Butadiene 1,6 1,4 Ammonia 1,2 1, Heavy Fuel Oil

12 Figure 22 US BUTADIENE, AMMONIA and NATURAL GAS PRICES vs JAPAN IMPORT HMDA cfr PRICE 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 HMDA Japan Import cfr Butadiene Ammonia Methane (Natural Gas) Feedstock Costs per Ton HMDA Figure 23 US BUTADIENE, AMMONIA and NATURAL GAS PRICES vs JAPAN IMPORT HMDA cfr PRICE 3,5 3, 2,5 2, HMDA Japan Import cfr HMDA est. Export Price fob 1,5 Fixed costs plus Cash Margin 1, 5 Feedstock Costs per Ton HMDA

13 Figure 24 LONG TERM AVERAGE PRICES OF FIBRES & INTERMEDIATES - Crude Oil ~$5/bbl 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1, PA6 Filament PA66 Staple 5 (FDY 7den) PA6 Staple 2 PA6 Polymer Caprolactam PEs FDY 7 den 11 Crude oil ~ $5/bbl 8 average 7 3 PEs Staple PA66 Filament (FDY 7den) PA66 Polymer 1.17 AH salt.66 AA +.52 HMDA.865 PTA +.35 MEG MEG PTA Benzene Figure 25 LONG TERM AVERAGE PRICES OF FIBRES & INTERMEDIATES - Crude Oil ~$75/bbl 3,3 3,1 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1, PA6 Filament FDY 7den) PA66 Staple 55 1 PA6 Polymer PA6 Staple Caprolactam 13 Crude oil ~ $75/bbl 1 average PEs FDY 7 den 3 8 PEs Staple.865 PTA +.35 MEG MEG PTA Benzene PA66 Filament (FDY 7den) PA66 Polymer 1.17 AH salt.66 AA +.52 HMDA 13

14 Figure 26 PA6, PA66 and PES RAW MATERIAL COST vs BRENT CRUDE OIL ,5 3, Brent Crude Oil $/bbl China AH Salt Import Price x ,5 2, 1,5 Asia Caprolactam Import Contract Price Asia.865 PTA +.35 MEG 1, CONCLUSIONS Growth: nylon fibre has been growing at 1.3% per year worldwide, but in recent years this has fallen to zero and negative growth is likely in 28 and 29 Polyamide engineering resin is growing at around 4% per year, through its penetration into new areas, such as automobile components, but growth will slow or go negative in 29 with recession in some automobile industries Long term polyamide growth overall (PA6 + PA66) is thus likely to be around 2.2%/year, but only after three years loss of growth Poor growth prospects will discourage investment in new caprolactam plants The present pattern of caprolactam trade will thus continue Caprolactam producers are having to pass on to customers all the recent reduction in their benzene, ammonia and energy costs PA66 producers still have high costs, with butadiene prices still high Caprolactam and PA6 will be hard pressed by competition from polyester PA66 is suffering the greatest feedstock pressures, but so far is managing to retain its premium quality image and pricing 14

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