PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM

Transcription

1 PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM Abstract Process Economics Program Report No. 158 SRI INTERNATIONAL Menlo Park, California OCTANE IMPROVERS FOR GASOLINE (November 1983) There la currently worldwide interest in the use of exotic octane improvers for gasoline-primarily oxygenated compounds. This study examines the present industrial status (together with the technology and economics of manufacture) of the major additives: including methanol, ethanol, tert-butanol (TBA), and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE). One of the major factors likely to.affect future additive usage is anticipated structural changes in gasoline markets-in particular the growth of unleaded gasoline in an otherwise static (or shrinking) gasoline pool. Against this background an assessment la made of the value of additives to gasoline blenders and to major refiners using conventional gasoline components such as light naphtha, reformate, FCC gasoline, alkylate, and polymer gasoline. Comparisons are made between additive value and estimated production coat for two crude oil price growth scenarios. PEP 81 WSF DG SF

2 Report No. 158 OCTANE IMPROVERS FOR GASOLINE by WING SIEN FONG DONALD GREENAWAY STAN FIELD November 1983 A private report by the PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM Menlo Park, California 94025

3 For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI programs specializing in marketing research. most major chemicals The CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD PETROCHEMICALS Program covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition, the SRI DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, prod- uct, and plant for the United States and Western Europe. ii

4 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION SUMMARY... 3 Industry Status... 3 Commercial Prospects... 6 Additive Valuation and Gasoline Economics... 7 Additive Production Technology and Costs Cost/Value Comparisons INDUSTRY STATUS Ethanol Methanol Methyl tert-butyl Ether tert-butanol tert-amy1 Methyl Ether Dimates COMMERCIAL PROSPECTS FOR OCTANE IMPROVERS Gasoline Demand and Quality in the United States The Importance of Front-End Octane Improvers Methyl tert-butyl Ether Ethanol Propylene Dimer Methanol and tert-butanol PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMICS FOR TBE FOUR MOST PROMINENT ADDITIVES Ethanol Production Process Description Cost Estimates Methanol Production Process Description Cost Estimates Methyl tert-butyl Ether Production Review of Processes Process Description Cost Estimates tert-butanol Production Process Description Cost Estimates iii

5 CONTENTS 6 ADDITIVE BLENDING PROPERTIES Ethanol Methanol Oxinol@, a Commercial Methanol-TBA Blend Methyl tert-butyl Ether tert-butanol GASOLINE ECONOMICS... General Approach... Additive Blendstock Valuation... Refinery Octane Valuation (1990 compared with 1982)... General Refinery Octane Valuation... Refinery Additive Valuation --Higher Molecular Weight Range Refinery Additive Valuation-- Lower Molecular Weight Range Market Value--Octanes and Additives... C4 Values and Alkylation Economics... Additive Valuation and Production Costs... Generalized Production Costs... Crude Oil Price Trends... MTBE... TBA... Ethanol... Methanol... Oxinol@ , 112 : : TERTIARY-AMYL METHYL ETHER Chemistry Review of Processes GulfCanada Institut Franlais du Petrole Standard Oil (Ohio) Texaco Process Description Process Discussion Cost Estimates PROPYLENBDIMATES Review of Processes Process Description IV

6 CONTENTS 9 PROPYLENE DIMATES (continued) Process Discussion Coat Estimates APPENDIX DESIGN AND COST BASES CITED REFERENCES PATENT REFERENCES V

7 ILLUSTRATIONS Gasoline Improvement Octane Number and Boiling Point for a Variety of High Octane Gasoline Components Historical and Projected Gasoline Demand In the United States Historical and Projected Octane Number of the Average U.S. Gasoline Pool Effect of Compression Ratio on Fuel Economy and Octane Requirement for Gasoline Engines Average Compression Ratio of New Cars in the United States Passenger Cars as a Function of Disposable Income in the United States Passenger Car Gasoline Expenditures as a Percentage of Disposable Income In the United States Estimated World MTBE Capacity Effect of Base Gasoline Octane Number on the Octane Improvement Capabllltlea of MTBE Effect of Base Gasoline Octane Number on the Blending Octane Number of MTBE Options for Diapoaitlon of Propylene Propylene Dimerization Material Balance Estimated Consumption of Methanol for Use in Gasoline in the United States Ethanol from Corn Effect of Corn Price and DDGS Credit on Production Coat Methanol RVP Blending Characteristics Effect of a Methanol-TBA Mixture (Oxlnol?) on Octane Number, RVP, and Water Tolerance Octane-Barrel Addition VII

8 ILLUSTRATIONS Oxygenate Heating Values Hypothetical Refinery Gasoline Pool Octane Barrel Valuation Identification of Cases Effect of Mileage per Gallon Improvement on Methanol Value Alkylation Flow Sheet Flow Sheet Viii

9 TABLES Some of the Major Existing and Potential Ethanol Producers in the United States... U.S. Methanol Producers... West European Methanol Producers... Summary of Anticipated New Methanol Capacity Worldwide.. U.S. Methyl tert-butyl Ether Producers... Some European Methyl tert-butyl Ether Producers... Value of Individual Octane Improvers in the U.S. Gasoline Pool... Gasoline Demand and Quality in the United States... Historical Expenditures for Passenger Car Gasoline Use in the United States... Gasoline Demand in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan... High Octane Front-End Components of Gasoline... Important Characteristics of Various Gasoline Octane Improvers... Typical Clear Octane Numbers... Estimated World Supply of Isobutylene... World Potential Supply of MTBE... Estimated World Capacity and Production of MTBE... Profitability of Propylene Dimer Production and the Value of Refinery C3's in Ethanol from Corn Production Costs... Methanol from Natural Gas by the ICI Copper-Based Catalyst Process Production Costs... MTBE from Mixed Butenes Production Costs... TBA from Mixed Butenes Production Costs ix

10 TABLES Physical and Thermal Properties of Ethanol Effect of Ethanol on Octane Numbers Effect of Ethanol on RVP and Distillation Physical and Thermal Properties of Methanol Effect of Methanol on Octane Numbers Effect of Methanol on RVP and Distillation Effect of a Methanol-TBA Mixture (Oxinol ) on Distillation Physical and Thermal Properties of MTBE and the Composition of a Commercial MTBE Product Effect of MTBE on Octane Numbers Arconol A Commercial TBA for Gasoline Blending Typical Additive Valuation (Blendstock Basis) Oxygenate Heating Values and Other Data Refining Operations 1982 and Octane Valuation at Constant Octane Octane Valuation at Constant Volume Additive Valuation at 120 Blending Octane Number Additive Valuation: Sensitivity to RVP at 120 Blending Octane Number Additive Valuation: Sensitivity to RVP at 110 Blending Octane Number Additive Valuation: Sensitivity to RVP at 100 Blending Octane Number Additive Valuation: Restricted FCC Capacity Methanol Valuation in Refining Operations Ethanol Valuation in Refining Operations Oxinol Valuation in Refining Operations Low Molecular Weight Additives, Refinery Valuation Methanol Valuation in Refining Operations, Thermal Efficiency Sensitivity X

11 TABLES Variation of Methanol Value with Improved Miles/Gallon Gasoline Prices and Market Valuation of Octanes and Additives (February 1983) Additive Production Costs Physical Properties of TAME Octane Numbers of Some TAME-Containing Blends Bases and Assumptions Major Equipment Utilities Summary Stream Flows Total Capital Investment Production Costs Composition, Reid Vapor Pressure, Distillation Characteristics, and Octane Numbers of Propylene Dimates. 194 Bases and Assumptions Stream Flows Major Equipment Utilities Summary Total Capital Investment Production Costs Xi